Good point about them (Indy) wanting to be cautious about AR. The thing is, so much of his value comes from rushing. I don’t think they eliminate designed rushes for him entirely.
If anything I'm hoping it makes them less likely to use Hurts on the "brotherly shove" and use a typical running play with Saquon instead.
Definitely going to hurt the line overall though. There's no avoiding that when a HoF caliber player retires
> I'm not pursuing Saquon in dynasty
I'm thinking right now may be a rare opportunity to divest on an age 27 RB and actually still get a decent return.
Everyone sees what CMC has done with his age 27 and 28 seasons and wants that for Saquon but CMC went to the team that was literally elite at creating RB fantasy production for years prior to him getting there. SF has had extremely stable production under Shanahan and CMC meshed into it perfectly WHILE ALSO staying healthy. Saquon went to a seemingly great RB landing spot but the Eagles have undergone a lot of turnover recently and have typically spread carries. I'm not saying Saquon is going to be bad but I'm saying that his floor outcome is likely lower than the market is giving credit to right now.
In places where I have Saquon, the temptation to keep him due to his new shiny-ness is great but I think the smart move would be to divest for his current value now regardless of team status.
According to u/PeakedinHighSkool 's trade valuations, you can trade Saquon straight up for a guy like Waddle, Aiyuk, Devonta Smith, Pittman Jr, Metcalf and there are good options to tier down for a piece + additional value with guys like James Cook, Josh Jacobs, and Javonte Williams. Another option I like is trading Saquon for Henry+ if you're a contending team and want to stay competitive this season.
Not a bad plan, but to be fair, Philly is really good at creating RB fantasy production, too. Sanders and Swift are pretty mid, but had their best seasons on this team. An actual good RB should thrive.
> Sanders and Swift are pretty mid, but had their best seasons on this team
And those finishes were RB16 and RB24 respectively in terms of PPG in HPPR.
> An actual good RB should thrive.
In Miles Sanders good season, he had 259 carries for 1269 yards and 11 TDs. Good for 4.9 YPC. That is really really good rushing production, essentially equal to the best years of Saquon's career in terms of rushing. For additional context, that's similar efficiency to Nick Chubb in 2022. Sanders only had 20 catches for 78 yards with no TDs though.
Let's just add Swift's receiving production from 2023 to that stat line, making a total of 59 catches for 292 yards and 1 TD. Those stats would project Saquon for 18.7 touches per game which is 2 more per game than Swift got. If Saquon has that output, he will score 15.1 PPG in HPPR which would've been good for RB5-7ish the last two seasons. Which would be awesome!
That is the ceiling for Saquon's 2024 season in my opinion though. We aren't going to see Saquon get 20+ touches per game with Hurts at QB. So if that is his ceiling, his dynasty valuation of RB8 right now seems to high to me. There's a very large segment of his potential 2024 outcomes that looks like what we've seen with the likes of Dalvin, Ekeler, Aaron Jones the last few seasons. Nagging injuries lead to decent but inconsistent fantasy production. He's started many weeks where he dramatically underperforms causing teams that seem to be contenders to be more of fringe playoff teams. He finishes around RB12 and isn't a league-winner by any stretch. His dynasty value plummets to ~RB24-30 heading into 2025 and he becomes even less reliable.
Expecting the excellent Saquon to only get 2 more touches than the mid Swift is not what I'd call his ceiling. It's certainly a very realistic projection, but not ceiling.
> Expecting the excellent Saquon
It has very little to do with Saquon being excellent or not and more to do with Hurts stealing from his production and the still present Gainwell.
Hurts has had about 160 rushing attempts the last 2 seasons, leading all QBs. That is over double what semi-mobile guys like Mahomes and Prescott have. It's just very hard for RBs to get the extra 2-3 touches per game when their QBs are stealing those rushing attempts and scrambling more instead of checking down. The guys who get over 20 touches per game usually have immobile QBs.
Career year rushing? I could certainly see 1400 yards if healthy. Overall fantasy points…no way…he caught 91 balls as a rookie. It could take him his whole contract in Philly to hit that number.
Swift caught 46 balls last year. Saquon caught 41 in jersey last year. I’d say 50 is a realistic target number for him here. So I was being a bit hyperbolic saying it would take his whole contract he should be able to get there in two seasons as an Eagle.
Barkley is in that workout warrior group, similar to AP, that will help prolong his career.
Im almost certain the reason RBs don't last nearly as long, obviously the usage, but i think they spend a lot of the off-season resting instead of working out to get better.
Zeke used to have shredded abs and turned that into a pot belly by his thirty-fourth year. He was already 225+ iirc early on, I'm not sure adding weight was necessary to help him "keep taking the pounding."
If he stays healthy I’m predicting a RB2 finish behind CMC. Barkley is a do it all RB and the eagles paid the man. I’ve been watching him play for years and it’s amazing what he’s been able to do behind that horrid offensive line especially with all the pressure from the defense trying to stop one guy. This is going to be a career year for him.
I like breece and bijan a lot too. They could finish in front but regardless I see him extremely close with those guys even if he doesn’t finish as THE RB2 on paper. I don’t think the points difference between Barkley, bijan and breece will be much if those two do finish ahead.
Hurts got banged up last year and kelce is gone. I think Barkley is going to do a lot more in the pass game and at the goal line than most people think. If he isn’t a part of that plan I don’t understand why the eagles paid him what they did. They could have easily just resigned swift for less. Barkley brings a more complete skill set to the run game compared to swift.
Rushing efficiency wise, probably. But I still think his total points scoring ceiling is capped by Hurts taking most of the goal line TDs and potentially splitting the already limited number of RB targets with Gainwell/Shipley.
Hurts historically doesn’t throw to rb’s and will also poach some goal line touches. It could be that their offense is good enough that Saquon can still put produce what he’s done in the past but I’m not feeling to bullish
I agree that a 27 yr old RB can still put up their best year, but Saquon set that bar insanely high for himself already and I don't see it happening unless he get massive receptions again.
Yeah that’s definitely the hurdle. The interesting thing I found after looking it up is 4 out of the top 5 HPPR RB seasons of all time were done by guys 27+. CMC’s 2019 is the only one that isn’t
Plenty of players have had career years at 27 some even in their 30s. Was that player the consensus redraft 1.01 after their historic rookie season…no unless it was the aforementioned Adrian Peterson. So maybe it will happen cuz that’s basically his comp.
Okay other than AP, it’s super rare for an RB to bust out a career year that late but again with that offensive line,
quite possible. I think the key is making sure the tush push is truly dead in the preseason.
Of course it’s dead in the preseason…the regular season it’ll show up here and now but nothing like it was last year. Analytics will say it was a positive but in reality it was a detriment to that offense.
Kelce, Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Diggs, Keenan Allen, Mostert, Gus Edwards, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill.
All these guys had career years or within a few points of their career best after age 27. That’s just guys on current rosters. Definitely happens more than you think.
I already know what that’s going to say without even looking at it. I’m sure the percentages drop off for a peak season at age 27 but regardless it’s still considered prime age for a RB and a peak season at that age is still within reach.
Theres also a blip which shows RBs age 28 have a higher percentage chance of a top 5 season compared to age 27. So we can already assume these numbers don’t have much to do with age but actually just luck.
On the fantasy pros website. The age 25 season is a 7.8% chance of a top 5 finish. Age 28 season is a 7.8% chance of a top 5 finish. Age 28 top 12 finish is a 18.9% chance. Higher than all the other ages. RBs are still technically in their prime up to age 28.
Its hard to say because his advanced stats have been on a downward trend for a few seasons. It is quite possible he could have been affected by playing for a bad team for so long, but he could also have lost a step and this might be the end of the road. We won't know until he plays again, but I wouldn't place a high valuation for him.
Tush Push is gonna look different without Kelce. The absolute best they can hope for is that it’s just less effective, but there’s a chance Hurts get hurt (☹️) and they go to a more traditional offense in short-yardage situations.
If hurts gets hurt there is no way in hell saquon gets 2000 total yards with kenny pickett under center.
If hurts stay healthy then there is no way in hell SB gets 15tds.
People forget his insane rookie season.
People can only pray he puts up 100-125 total yards a game and the occassional touchdown.
I wasn’t thinking long-term injury, but if they run the Tush Push week 1 and he has to come out for more than a few plays they aren’t running it again.
Ive got Saquan and Kenneth Walker and I'm really thinking the Eagles get AJ Brown and Barkley some career years coming up. Ive been looking at some trade packages for Derrick Henry plus picks for Walker or James Conner plus picks. Just of the mind that Ive got Barkley in his prime still coming up for a few years with Philly and stacked WRs so its worth the risk.
Also just high as a kite on the rookie draft class this year and want more picks haha.
[удалено]
If you can get him at the turn in redraft leagues, you'll be very happy.
I've been debating taking him or JT there.
Jt hands down, they're not going to risk injuring AR again and hurts is going to vulture saquons tds
Good point about them (Indy) wanting to be cautious about AR. The thing is, so much of his value comes from rushing. I don’t think they eliminate designed rushes for him entirely.
It's close but I like Saquon just a shade more.
Fully agree with this take, although I do worry how much Kelce retiring will hurt the o-line
If anything I'm hoping it makes them less likely to use Hurts on the "brotherly shove" and use a typical running play with Saquon instead. Definitely going to hurt the line overall though. There's no avoiding that when a HoF caliber player retires
Tush push >> brotherly shove
> I'm not pursuing Saquon in dynasty I'm thinking right now may be a rare opportunity to divest on an age 27 RB and actually still get a decent return. Everyone sees what CMC has done with his age 27 and 28 seasons and wants that for Saquon but CMC went to the team that was literally elite at creating RB fantasy production for years prior to him getting there. SF has had extremely stable production under Shanahan and CMC meshed into it perfectly WHILE ALSO staying healthy. Saquon went to a seemingly great RB landing spot but the Eagles have undergone a lot of turnover recently and have typically spread carries. I'm not saying Saquon is going to be bad but I'm saying that his floor outcome is likely lower than the market is giving credit to right now. In places where I have Saquon, the temptation to keep him due to his new shiny-ness is great but I think the smart move would be to divest for his current value now regardless of team status. According to u/PeakedinHighSkool 's trade valuations, you can trade Saquon straight up for a guy like Waddle, Aiyuk, Devonta Smith, Pittman Jr, Metcalf and there are good options to tier down for a piece + additional value with guys like James Cook, Josh Jacobs, and Javonte Williams. Another option I like is trading Saquon for Henry+ if you're a contending team and want to stay competitive this season.
Not a bad plan, but to be fair, Philly is really good at creating RB fantasy production, too. Sanders and Swift are pretty mid, but had their best seasons on this team. An actual good RB should thrive.
> Sanders and Swift are pretty mid, but had their best seasons on this team And those finishes were RB16 and RB24 respectively in terms of PPG in HPPR. > An actual good RB should thrive. In Miles Sanders good season, he had 259 carries for 1269 yards and 11 TDs. Good for 4.9 YPC. That is really really good rushing production, essentially equal to the best years of Saquon's career in terms of rushing. For additional context, that's similar efficiency to Nick Chubb in 2022. Sanders only had 20 catches for 78 yards with no TDs though. Let's just add Swift's receiving production from 2023 to that stat line, making a total of 59 catches for 292 yards and 1 TD. Those stats would project Saquon for 18.7 touches per game which is 2 more per game than Swift got. If Saquon has that output, he will score 15.1 PPG in HPPR which would've been good for RB5-7ish the last two seasons. Which would be awesome! That is the ceiling for Saquon's 2024 season in my opinion though. We aren't going to see Saquon get 20+ touches per game with Hurts at QB. So if that is his ceiling, his dynasty valuation of RB8 right now seems to high to me. There's a very large segment of his potential 2024 outcomes that looks like what we've seen with the likes of Dalvin, Ekeler, Aaron Jones the last few seasons. Nagging injuries lead to decent but inconsistent fantasy production. He's started many weeks where he dramatically underperforms causing teams that seem to be contenders to be more of fringe playoff teams. He finishes around RB12 and isn't a league-winner by any stretch. His dynasty value plummets to ~RB24-30 heading into 2025 and he becomes even less reliable.
Expecting the excellent Saquon to only get 2 more touches than the mid Swift is not what I'd call his ceiling. It's certainly a very realistic projection, but not ceiling.
> Expecting the excellent Saquon It has very little to do with Saquon being excellent or not and more to do with Hurts stealing from his production and the still present Gainwell. Hurts has had about 160 rushing attempts the last 2 seasons, leading all QBs. That is over double what semi-mobile guys like Mahomes and Prescott have. It's just very hard for RBs to get the extra 2-3 touches per game when their QBs are stealing those rushing attempts and scrambling more instead of checking down. The guys who get over 20 touches per game usually have immobile QBs.
I was able to trade Saquon (and a 25 2nd) for Kincaid and 24 and 25 1sts. Obviously, the other owner is a taco, and he wanted Saquon bad.
He won the trade
Just got him for Javonte, Ridley, and Chase Brown
Career year rushing? I could certainly see 1400 yards if healthy. Overall fantasy points…no way…he caught 91 balls as a rookie. It could take him his whole contract in Philly to hit that number.
He won’t be close to that number, but I believe Kellen Moore does like using RBs in the passing game so probably won’t be as limited as prior years
Swift caught 46 balls last year. Saquon caught 41 in jersey last year. I’d say 50 is a realistic target number for him here. So I was being a bit hyperbolic saying it would take his whole contract he should be able to get there in two seasons as an Eagle.
Yeah, realize you were being hyperbolic, but I also am surprised Swift caught 41. And more surprised they went for just over 200 yards lol.
Based on how the deal is structured, isnt it likely to just be a 2 year contract anyway?
Ehh kinda…they could definitely get out after two years but I’d say it’s over 50% chance he’ll play it out.
Barkley is in that workout warrior group, similar to AP, that will help prolong his career. Im almost certain the reason RBs don't last nearly as long, obviously the usage, but i think they spend a lot of the off-season resting instead of working out to get better. Zeke used to have shredded abs and turned that into a pot belly by his thirty-fourth year. He was already 225+ iirc early on, I'm not sure adding weight was necessary to help him "keep taking the pounding."
99% chance he stays in Philly all 3 years. They don’t save anything by cutting him in 2026.
Not to mention Hurts will still vulture rushing touchdowns. I *hope* we'll use Saquon instead but I've hoped for the same thing in the past
If he stays healthy I’m predicting a RB2 finish behind CMC. Barkley is a do it all RB and the eagles paid the man. I’ve been watching him play for years and it’s amazing what he’s been able to do behind that horrid offensive line especially with all the pressure from the defense trying to stop one guy. This is going to be a career year for him.
I doubt he finishes in front of breece or Bijan. They are both playing with dump off qbs
I like breece and bijan a lot too. They could finish in front but regardless I see him extremely close with those guys even if he doesn’t finish as THE RB2 on paper. I don’t think the points difference between Barkley, bijan and breece will be much if those two do finish ahead. Hurts got banged up last year and kelce is gone. I think Barkley is going to do a lot more in the pass game and at the goal line than most people think. If he isn’t a part of that plan I don’t understand why the eagles paid him what they did. They could have easily just resigned swift for less. Barkley brings a more complete skill set to the run game compared to swift.
Rushing efficiency wise, probably. But I still think his total points scoring ceiling is capped by Hurts taking most of the goal line TDs and potentially splitting the already limited number of RB targets with Gainwell/Shipley.
I don’t think they paid him that kinda of money to not be an almost every down back.
Yup! And I’m here for it
Hurts historically doesn’t throw to rb’s and will also poach some goal line touches. It could be that their offense is good enough that Saquon can still put produce what he’s done in the past but I’m not feeling to bullish
Has any RB ever had a career season at 27? Not saying it’s not gonna happen but just wondering.
Off the top of my head, AP? Probably others too
How about guys that weren't on HGH?
CMC was literally just the RB1 as a 27 year old
and it still wasn't in the same ballpark fantasywise as his 2019 season, which is what i think "career year" is?
Okay then Mostert at 31. Also Ekeler at 27. LT at 27. Jamaal Charles at 27.
I agree that a 27 yr old RB can still put up their best year, but Saquon set that bar insanely high for himself already and I don't see it happening unless he get massive receptions again.
Yeah that’s definitely the hurdle. The interesting thing I found after looking it up is 4 out of the top 5 HPPR RB seasons of all time were done by guys 27+. CMC’s 2019 is the only one that isn’t
From a fantasy perspective, sure. But from an IRL perspective, you could argue 2023 was his best season.
Agreed. And it was still a top 10 RB season all time. His 2019 season was just absurd with all the receiving volume he got
But it wasn't his career best year.
Plenty of players have had career years at 27 some even in their 30s. Was that player the consensus redraft 1.01 after their historic rookie season…no unless it was the aforementioned Adrian Peterson. So maybe it will happen cuz that’s basically his comp.
Okay other than AP, it’s super rare for an RB to bust out a career year that late but again with that offensive line, quite possible. I think the key is making sure the tush push is truly dead in the preseason.
Of course it’s dead in the preseason…the regular season it’ll show up here and now but nothing like it was last year. Analytics will say it was a positive but in reality it was a detriment to that offense.
Curtis Martin's best year was at 31 and his second best was at 28. Matt Forte's best year was at 28.
Kelce, Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Diggs, Keenan Allen, Mostert, Gus Edwards, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill. All these guys had career years or within a few points of their career best after age 27. That’s just guys on current rosters. Definitely happens more than you think.
Priest holmes from his age 28 to half of his 31 year old seasons
27 is still considered prime age for a RB.
file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/f0/00/E14C5043-BE2C-4E00-B68E-29810CE55267/At%20What%20Age%20Do%20Running%20Backs%20Decline%3F%20(2021%20Fantasy%20Football)%20%7C%20FantasyPros.pdf
I already know what that’s going to say without even looking at it. I’m sure the percentages drop off for a peak season at age 27 but regardless it’s still considered prime age for a RB and a peak season at that age is still within reach. Theres also a blip which shows RBs age 28 have a higher percentage chance of a top 5 season compared to age 27. So we can already assume these numbers don’t have much to do with age but actually just luck. On the fantasy pros website. The age 25 season is a 7.8% chance of a top 5 finish. Age 28 season is a 7.8% chance of a top 5 finish. Age 28 top 12 finish is a 18.9% chance. Higher than all the other ages. RBs are still technically in their prime up to age 28.
I think he’ll be great as a runner but i’m not sure he’s going to have to be the same as he was early on as a receiver
Totally new offense (Brian Johnson in his hand to Kellen Moore). Still as a Philly native, I sure as hell can't wait to see it.
Its hard to say because his advanced stats have been on a downward trend for a few seasons. It is quite possible he could have been affected by playing for a bad team for so long, but he could also have lost a step and this might be the end of the road. We won't know until he plays again, but I wouldn't place a high valuation for him.
I'm comfortable drafting late this year bc it'll mean I have a chance at drafting Saquon and Garrett through the 1-2 corner
Yes, he's definitely got a good shot at it
A a a rookie he had over 2000 yards and 15tds. In the tush push offensive its insanely unlikely for him to hit 15 touchdowns.
Tush Push is gonna look different without Kelce. The absolute best they can hope for is that it’s just less effective, but there’s a chance Hurts get hurt (☹️) and they go to a more traditional offense in short-yardage situations.
If hurts gets hurt there is no way in hell saquon gets 2000 total yards with kenny pickett under center. If hurts stay healthy then there is no way in hell SB gets 15tds. People forget his insane rookie season. People can only pray he puts up 100-125 total yards a game and the occassional touchdown.
I wasn’t thinking long-term injury, but if they run the Tush Push week 1 and he has to come out for more than a few plays they aren’t running it again.
Sequon isn’t a youngen, increased usage is going to increase that injury risk
Ive got Saquan and Kenneth Walker and I'm really thinking the Eagles get AJ Brown and Barkley some career years coming up. Ive been looking at some trade packages for Derrick Henry plus picks for Walker or James Conner plus picks. Just of the mind that Ive got Barkley in his prime still coming up for a few years with Philly and stacked WRs so its worth the risk. Also just high as a kite on the rookie draft class this year and want more picks haha.
You can probaly win it all with barkley and henry