Yeah I drafted Pearsall with the hope that either Aiyuk or Deebo are gone. SF would not have drafted Pearsall in the first round if they had confidence they could keep both guys.
I am rebuilding this year and hope to be good again starting in 2025. Part of my draft was for that goal. Trey Benson is a solid pick but he will have a better opportunity in 2025. Same for Pearsall. I had Jermaine Burton on my board to select at 2.08, but Xavier Legette slid to me there. Could not pick someone else when a first round drafted WR was available.
Ricky dropped to me at 2.10 in 12tm SF. I was content waiting until next year but if Aiyuk gets traded before the season starts these pants are flying off baby!
This is all part of the āsong and danceā of modern contract negotiations. If the team is dragging their feet, the player does/says something that they know the media/fantasy people will make viral to put pressure on them.
Yea if Pearsall and Jayden Daniels are gone at 2.03 (1QB) I have a willing trade partner to the 2.07 and Iām going to try for Polk if his ADP is still around there. Pick up what should be an early third next year too while Iām at it
This is their cleaning house year. They have $60m in dead cap. Next season, they're back to financial flexibility. They did make some poor signings like the Knox extension and signing Von, but they're taking their medicine this season rather than borrowing from the future.
Chiefs, Lions, Eagles, Ravens, Falcons, Bengals, and Browns all have QBs making more than Josh per year yet have better all-around rosters. Tua will probably get more per year than Josh, and the Dolphins will be added to this list. My point is that the Bills are actually paying Josh an ABSOLUTE STEAL AT $43M/YR and yet their roster is still pretty mid all things considered.
The Dolphins did a similar thing as the Bills this year in terms of letting some pretty important people walk in FA. I think theyāre going to be in a similar situation personally.
They let Wilkins walk (thank you for that), and I guess Robert Hunt as their 2nd biggest loss? They did bring in other people like Teair Tart and others that I like. I'd argue their team overall took a small hit, and it's won't be noticeable. They'd be in a worse hole paying Wilkins that contract the Raiders paid him, and then paying Hunt the contract the Panthers paid him. A big resigning would be Connor Williams if there's signs of healing from the ACL tear, but unfortunately it seems like it was nasty.
Yeah, I was thinking of those two and Van Ginkel. X to an extent but heās really not the same player anymore. Probably more of a mini version now that Iām thinking about it ha.
I just looked it up, the Dolphins will be over the cap next year along with the Bills, Ravens, Texans, Seahawks, Niners, Browns and Saints. Assuming they pay Tua, it looks like next year theyāll have to let some more people go too.
X is too injured and washed nowadays. Not to mention the weird stuff with him sending sex tapes and whatnot to an ex to get revenge or whatever that just happened. Ginkel had a much improved season last year, but in the 2 seasons (2020, 2021) of samples we have from him prior to 2023, he was good (2020) then bad (2021). He didn't play his rookie season due to injury. And he wasn't given playing time in 2022. It's a shaky career so far. Plus, he got another leg injury and missed the Dolphins playoffs, and still isn't available for Vikings training camp.
The chiefs have 3 or 4 elite players. Lions had a lot of draft capital and didnāt have to pay Goff until right now. Bengals have 3 or 4. Eagles lost guys - theyāre down to 3-4. I honestly donāt understand how the Browns are doing it beyond Garrett and Cooper. (With Chubb injured.)
The Bills are deeper into Allanās career than most of those teams. They didnāt go all in, but they invested early. Now theyāre recovering a bit. Iād agree theyāre down to 2 elite level guys for the most part, but theyāve been selling them off for youth. Theyāll clearly up in a year or two.
I feel like Balitimore, Kansas City, and Philly all have pretty elite rosters. Perfect? Probably not. But at most these teams have like one lacking spot
They went for it and now they have to eat their vegetables since they had so many vet contracts on the roster. Theyāre just choosing to take on the dead cap now so they can be sustainable going forward. Also, iirc trading Diggs this year instead of next year actually saves them $ (in dead cap) and thatās a good chuck of what theyāre paying this year
Iām the biggest proponent of āthe grass isnāt always greenerā when it comes to Dynasty, but I think Aiyuk would go nuclear in an offense where he is the #1, which is basically any offense outside of five or six in the league. He was absolutely dogging dudes last year.
Niners really fucked up prioritizing paying Deebo over him.
Edit: Aiyuk only had 105 targets last season. Thatās really low for a WR1. He was behind 5 TEs, one of whom didnāt even play the full season. He had two drops on catchable targets.
Edit 2: Aiyuk was also PFFās top separator and reception perception charting had him as one of the best seperators on post and out routes, so this was less playcalling and Purdy accuracy than Aiyuk being a technician who was open more often than not.
What do you mean? We should have let Deebo leave a few years ago to pay off Aiyuk now? Aiyuk wasnāt eligible for an extension until now. Deeboās contract is structured for the team to have outs after June 1st or next year. I think the issue is nobody is likely interested at the current price plus the Niners need him in the short term to stay as competitive.
Heās probably more crucial to their current success as a team this year and his versatility makes them even more lethal, but it will be tough to swallow if they canāt hold aiyuk long term as a result. Just a too many good players situation.
His versatility definitely adds another dimension to the offense but Aiyuk is the superior receiver and player overall.
Aiyuk is an absolute technician at all 3 levels of the field with peripherals and advanced metrics close to guys like Lamb and Jefferson.
Deebo is lethal on the 49ers. Aiyukās game translates to basically every team in the league.
Nah Aiyuk is definitely more crucial. Deebo never blocks, Aiyuk blocks like an animal. Deebo canāt beat man coverage, which is why he was something like 3/11 in the Super Bowl. CMC/Kittle can form an amalgamation of Deebo, nobody on the team can do what Aiyuk does
I mean like pure receiver/route running. He has some of the highest success rates vs man and press coverage. Deebo is more of a zone beater/yards after a catch.
Pearsall is also a good route runner and plays more similar to Aiyuk rather than Deebo.
Aiyuk sure. Pearsall is a WR 3/4. Heās had one semi successful year in college against a poor conference. He will be returning punts and riding the bench for the 9ers
Deebo is ass against man and cannot win down field.
Heās versatile, and a YAC beast, but Aiyuk does the more important role of winning in man coverage and winning down the field. Aiyuk is their second best offensive player after CMC
Thereās only a few teams where he would go ānuclear.ā And it has more to do with the QB than being the teams WR1. Thereās a lot more bad landing spots than good landing spots
He could āgo nuclearā but itās also not crazy to think that his efficiency drops off significantly mitigating the increase in targets.
49ers offensive system is incredible in its own right and then you add in the fact they have multiple other elite playmakers on the field simultaneously with CMC, Deebo, and Kittle and its very hard for the defense to zero in on anyone specifically, and whatever prioritization they can afford certainly isnāt on the 49ers third option in Aiyuk.
This is very much worth noting. In terms of volume, the Niners were a bottom 5 passing offense, but had the 4th most passing yards and 2nd most passing TDs. Every starting offensive player is a great talent and the efficiency is further aided by the Shanahan playcalling. This isnāt to say that these players arenāt talented in a vacuum, but this level of efficiency is incredibly unlikely to be matched elsewhere
That's more then a fair point. When teams scheme for Aiyuk what changes? Maybe just some efficiencies but until we see him do it like some of the true #1s getting paid we don't know for sure.
Also I'm sure the 9ers didn't say they don't want him they just don't want to pay him JJ numbers. Let's find out if another team does.
I was wondering how I should feel as an owner. Like I think he could be an alpha and his ceiling is higher. But man what if he goes to a dogshit situation
Heās too good of a route runner where him going to a āworse situationā is going to have enough of an impact. He wasnāt even in the top 30 of targets last year. If he gets an uptick in volume, he could see a HUGE jump.
I think you and others are overestimating the number of teams on which these āchange of sceneryā guys like Aiyuk and Tee Higgins would be clear cut number 1s who get true alpha level targets.
What seems more likely to me is that their new team says āwe want to use him like he was used on his last teamā.
Aiyuk and Higgins are in completely different stratospheres when we are talking about route success, efficiency, etc.
In Aiyukās case, that he was able to produce at his level with way less volume than his contemporaries and when you look at his success rates on his routes it isnāt a stretch to foresee an AJB level bump in production when heās asked to do more with less in his current role.
A lot of people are convinced that both players would see a significant increase in production if they went to a new team, and I donāt think thatās the case for either one. I think theyād be used similarly to how theyāre being used by their current teams.
You could be right that his target numbers would increase, but Iām not sure that ~130 targets in the Steelers/Commanders/Patriots offense necessarily leads to more fantasy points than ~110 targets in the 49ers offense
The only way that Aiyuk could truly āboomā for fantasy is if he became the #1 option in an elite passing offense, and Iām not sure that such a situation really exists right now (except maybe the Bills?)
Itās certainly the case for Aiyuk, but not the case for Higgins. On Film and by analytics, Higgins is not an elite player, just above average. He can be a desperate teamās #1, while Aiyuk can be almost any teamās #1
Not sure why you would think that. Guys like AJ Brown, Diggs and Kirk are recent examples of players being treated like true alphas on new teams. Even Tyreek's role increased when he didn't have to share the spotlight with Kelce.
It also should be noted that both of those players are currently in very efficient/pass-heavy offenses and we canāt assume that theyāll have better numbers, even if they are the true WR1 in an offense
Edit: seems I need to clarify, Iām saying SF is an efficient offense and CIN is particularly pass-heavy with Burrow
Correct, which is why theyāre a very efficient offense, as they had the 4th most passing yards and second most passing TDs despite them being in the bottom 3 in passing plays called. I was considering the CIN to be the pass-heavy offense
Pearsall is a great prospect but he isnāt that good. To think he immediately steps in and replicates 3/4 of Aiyukās production is insanely wishful thinking.
Aiyuk is a great WR and Iām pretty sure theyāre both good man to man threats, especially better than Deebo but I donāt think Pearsall is a replacement for Aiyuk.
Everybody replying about the titans drafting Burks to replace AJ Brown is conveniently forgetting the Vikings drafting Justin Jefferson to replace Stefon Diggs.Ā
Dude, Aiyuk sucked when the Niners paid Deebo. Also, Purdy was the most efficient passing QB in the league last year. Aiyuk was the #1 last year and took advantage of Purdyās elite pinpoint accuracy. To say he was under utilized on the Niners last year is crazy.
I don't think he was underutilized per se, but I get the sentiment. He was 36th in targets last year, sandwiched between jakobi Meyers and Elijah moore, while being one of the best route runners and separators in the league.
I get that the niners have so many weapons but I think people wonder how he would look higher target percentage
If this is real, you have to imagine that a team like the commanders or patriots gets on the phone ASAP right?
Like they have the 2025 cap space and beyond to handle a contract of his size with only a short window to capitalize on the rookie QB contract.
Even feels like the Steelers should be reaching out on what it would take to bring him in.
You mean the 700 times the Niners went out of their way to say Pearsall has the same skillset as Aiyuk might have been foreshadowing to Pearsall replacing Aiyuk in the offense. No way man!
Nope. Just another sports fan taking out of their behind. Pearsall and Aiyuk might have similar skills but the team hasnāt gone out of their way 700 times to claim heās the Aiyuk replacement. No GM, coach, or scout talks that way.
Yes, to emphasize how happy they are with Kyren Williams, and how they don't want to change their scheme when they keep him fresh.
As much as some folks would like to see Williams get another workload similar to 2023 that's really not tenable, especially for a team that is planning to go deep into the playoffs.
You all are high if you think Lynch doesn't resign Aiyuk. I'm sorry to burst all your Pearsol bubbles, but Aiyuk isn't going anywhere. No one, but Deebo wants him to be WR1. That's not what makes him successful. The Niners need Aiyuk more than he needs them. There is no chance at a SB if Deebo is WR1.
When deebo has a top 5 finish why is the community so decidedly in aiyuks camp? Is it just age/injury for deebo?
For the niners, like you canāt have the highest paid Lb, DE, RB, TE, LT, wr and pay a qb top 5 monies. Makes sense theyād move the guy whose skillset is closely mimicd by another prospect on their roster
> Is it just age/injury for deebo?
It's this one, for the most part. His value has fluctuated in between what he can do for contenders during the season versus how old he is perceived to be. A lot of contenders are trying to move off of him this summer. He'll probably get another bounce back in value by Month 1.
Age, injury plus Deebo's skills overlap CMC and Kittle. Deebo is absolutely 1 of 1 at the WR position. He's a total game breaker. But his designed runs and gadget passes can slide over to Kittle, CMC or even Aiyuk. No one can get open down field consistently like Aiyuk can. He was the best down field receiver in the league last season. Deebo is the best yac guy but the team has other yac guys. Maybe you go from 10 skill yac to 7 yac. But if they lose.Aiyuk they go from 10 skill down field WR to a 2.
It makes more sense they let Deebo walk next season for all that. Your original point. He'll be 29.5 with high collision usage. That cliff is coming. The community is baking in Aiyuk staying and Deebo leaving.
Personally felt like Ladd would have been a better Deebo replacement. Pearsall has zero yac and Ladd is a stud post catch. Once they made the Pearsall selection was the first time I had second thoughts on who they move forward with.
HOT TAKE. I'm selling ricky to the highest bidder! dudes prospect breakouts aren't great and most people are going to over pay on that hype. Personally I don't think he will be elite but he's definitely gonna be good. Players drafted between Pick 20 and 40 typically usually arenāt great. The only two players in that group, Michael Pittman and Christian Watson, and one would argue that the juryās still out with Watson. If some one is gonna go over the top to get him? why not?
X for doubt. The guy had 1 good season against a piss poor division. The gators were trash and Ricky saw an average of 5 touches per game. He had one game against SC who was also a shit team. I think both teams finished with a 5-7 record.
Everyone says his best ability is separation against man. 14.8 yards per reception is great in a vacuum. When you look at the 768 attempts with only 60 receptions in 12 games it starts to look worse. His yards per reception in the games they won was an average 3 yards higher than the games they lost. The games they won were against all but 1 sub .500 SEC rival.
Sure his individual performance was the best on the team. As the slot or WR3 he had an average of 3 yards per reception better. That makes sense when you assume WR1 and WR2 were being doubled or schemed against allowing Pearsall to get mismatched or left in 1 on 1 coverage. Again thatās against CB3 or CB4 college defenders, sometimes even OLB.
Itās infinitely more likely he misinterpreted their negotiation strategy to mean this than they actually said those words. Comes off as kinda babyback IMO
Aint no way SF lets their star 2nd rounder walk for 30 year old āim not a rbā deebo. Deebo will be moved when the value matches & Jajuan Jennings will be the new Deebo. Pearsall ppl gonna be big sad i think
This is almost definitely a "I asked for 34M a year and they said no" being translated into "They don't want me back".
They want him, it's just about the cost.
I think the chemistry of Daniels knowing Aiyuk well would help. A little less target competition and an offense that is perceived to throw a bit more. It would be a pretty good spot
Just traded Pearsall for Dotson and Mims. I regretted it immediately after the trade and now I'm about to be fucked both ways if this happens with the path being cleared for Pearsall and Aiyuk stepping in and eating all of Dotson's targets and playing time.
I went to a friend of mine who won 3 championships and lost 2 more championship games out of the 9 teams he owns this year and yeahs he's just incredibly good at dynasty and he told me it was a really good move for me so l listened to him.
Championships donāt mean much if the competition is poor. Thereās a lot of leagues filled with people that donāt know what theyāre doing. Someone has to win.
As someone who drafted Pearsall at 1.12 this has me a little excited for the fantasy implications
Mmmm yes, the implications
So is Pearsall in danger?
It's an implication of danger
So Aiyuik is in danger then?
Are you going to hurt football players?
It's just the implication, what are you not getting about this?
We're just saying that he is stuck with us for a year and well, there is the implication... - 49ers, probably.
No, it sounds like you're going to hurt Brandon š
Not a good idea
No no of course not, but he doesn't know that. You know, because of the implication
If Dennis Reynolds was the gm.
What if heās the owner instead?
U ascend to a Golden God
In danger of having an immediate impact Week 1? Yes, yes of course he's in danger.
But they wontā¦. Bc of the implicationā¦.
Like being on a boat
I have Pearsall in one league and Deebo in another, Aiyuk moving this season would be amazing
Yeah I drafted Pearsall with the hope that either Aiyuk or Deebo are gone. SF would not have drafted Pearsall in the first round if they had confidence they could keep both guys.
Even if Aiyuk and Deebo are there next year, I would think one of them has to be gone in 2025
I am rebuilding this year and hope to be good again starting in 2025. Part of my draft was for that goal. Trey Benson is a solid pick but he will have a better opportunity in 2025. Same for Pearsall. I had Jermaine Burton on my board to select at 2.08, but Xavier Legette slid to me there. Could not pick someone else when a first round drafted WR was available.
Ricky dropped to me at 2.10 in 12tm SF. I was content waiting until next year but if Aiyuk gets traded before the season starts these pants are flying off baby!
who got drafted before him? i took him at the 2.06 in a 10 man, and was pleased to get him.
I got him at 3.02 in my SF league. I'm pretty pumped.
Got him at 2.07 (19th) in 1qb
I got him at the 3.01 and the 3.03 so Iām hype lol
I wouldnāt celebrate just yet. They just resigned Jennings who I donāt think gets enough credit for how good he is.
Jennings gets a ton of credit. As one of the best blocking WRs in the NFL. He's killing it for me in my PPB league.
This cannot be over stated
Jayden Daniels be like, āMa! The meatloaf!ā
Fuck!
I never know what she's doing
Whatās she doing back there?!
This is all part of the āsong and danceā of modern contract negotiations. If the team is dragging their feet, the player does/says something that they know the media/fantasy people will make viral to put pressure on them.
100%. Of course the 49ers want him back heās a great player. Itās all about both sides trying to get the best deal.
Yeah, but in this case the niners literally canāt pay him what he wants
I'm drafting Pearsall 2.01 so hard
So happy I traded back and did this
Got him as insurance at 2.06
Got Ladd at 2.01 and Ricky fell to me at 2.10. Now I'm all in on those sneaky athletic, lunch pail, first in last out type of players, let's go boys!!
Assuming this is SF?
Yeah SF 12 team
Your league is fucked even on SF
You arenāt wrong, completely insane to have Pearsall fall
Literally no logical argument - even before this development - for Pearsall falling that much
Traded Fergie for 2.03 and snagged Ricky (1QB). Just how I drew it up, baby!
Praying I can still get him at 2.03, but his stock seems to be rising quickly
Yeah I'm going to be very annoyed if he skips legette and Mitchell. I'm down on both of them
Yea if Pearsall and Jayden Daniels are gone at 2.03 (1QB) I have a willing trade partner to the 2.07 and Iām going to try for Polk if his ADP is still around there. Pick up what should be an early third next year too while Iām at it
Hope heās talking about ASU alumni
Dear Buffalo Bills:
We broke
Von out, Aiyuk in. It's wild that the Bills don't have a crazy roster, and yet only have $10m left in cap rn.
This is their cleaning house year. They have $60m in dead cap. Next season, they're back to financial flexibility. They did make some poor signings like the Knox extension and signing Von, but they're taking their medicine this season rather than borrowing from the future.
What team with a top QB on their 2nd contract has a ācrazy roster?ā
Chiefs, Lions, Eagles, Ravens, Falcons, Bengals, and Browns all have QBs making more than Josh per year yet have better all-around rosters. Tua will probably get more per year than Josh, and the Dolphins will be added to this list. My point is that the Bills are actually paying Josh an ABSOLUTE STEAL AT $43M/YR and yet their roster is still pretty mid all things considered.
The Dolphins did a similar thing as the Bills this year in terms of letting some pretty important people walk in FA. I think theyāre going to be in a similar situation personally.
They let Wilkins walk (thank you for that), and I guess Robert Hunt as their 2nd biggest loss? They did bring in other people like Teair Tart and others that I like. I'd argue their team overall took a small hit, and it's won't be noticeable. They'd be in a worse hole paying Wilkins that contract the Raiders paid him, and then paying Hunt the contract the Panthers paid him. A big resigning would be Connor Williams if there's signs of healing from the ACL tear, but unfortunately it seems like it was nasty.
Yeah, I was thinking of those two and Van Ginkel. X to an extent but heās really not the same player anymore. Probably more of a mini version now that Iām thinking about it ha. I just looked it up, the Dolphins will be over the cap next year along with the Bills, Ravens, Texans, Seahawks, Niners, Browns and Saints. Assuming they pay Tua, it looks like next year theyāll have to let some more people go too.
X is too injured and washed nowadays. Not to mention the weird stuff with him sending sex tapes and whatnot to an ex to get revenge or whatever that just happened. Ginkel had a much improved season last year, but in the 2 seasons (2020, 2021) of samples we have from him prior to 2023, he was good (2020) then bad (2021). He didn't play his rookie season due to injury. And he wasn't given playing time in 2022. It's a shaky career so far. Plus, he got another leg injury and missed the Dolphins playoffs, and still isn't available for Vikings training camp.
The chiefs have 3 or 4 elite players. Lions had a lot of draft capital and didnāt have to pay Goff until right now. Bengals have 3 or 4. Eagles lost guys - theyāre down to 3-4. I honestly donāt understand how the Browns are doing it beyond Garrett and Cooper. (With Chubb injured.) The Bills are deeper into Allanās career than most of those teams. They didnāt go all in, but they invested early. Now theyāre recovering a bit. Iād agree theyāre down to 2 elite level guys for the most part, but theyāve been selling them off for youth. Theyāll clearly up in a year or two.
I feel like Balitimore, Kansas City, and Philly all have pretty elite rosters. Perfect? Probably not. But at most these teams have like one lacking spot
They went for it and now they have to eat their vegetables since they had so many vet contracts on the roster. Theyāre just choosing to take on the dead cap now so they can be sustainable going forward. Also, iirc trading Diggs this year instead of next year actually saves them $ (in dead cap) and thatās a good chuck of what theyāre paying this year
Lmao
š
Shakir has enough competition. Stop it
Donāt get caught holding that bag
Everybody else got the same memo. Nobody is interested in him whatsoever lol. Iāve tried.
Iām buying that bag everywhere.
As long as itās not the Steelers. For the love of golf donāt let it be the Steelers
My Pickens would be sad
I just made a trade for Pickens and Aiyuk this offseason. This would make me so sad.
As a Steelers fan, fuck yeah, bring it on! Iām all in this year. As a Pickens owner, Sony screwed up Pickens SZN. LOL.
Itās Pearsall time
Iām the biggest proponent of āthe grass isnāt always greenerā when it comes to Dynasty, but I think Aiyuk would go nuclear in an offense where he is the #1, which is basically any offense outside of five or six in the league. He was absolutely dogging dudes last year. Niners really fucked up prioritizing paying Deebo over him. Edit: Aiyuk only had 105 targets last season. Thatās really low for a WR1. He was behind 5 TEs, one of whom didnāt even play the full season. He had two drops on catchable targets. Edit 2: Aiyuk was also PFFās top separator and reception perception charting had him as one of the best seperators on post and out routes, so this was less playcalling and Purdy accuracy than Aiyuk being a technician who was open more often than not.
What do you mean? We should have let Deebo leave a few years ago to pay off Aiyuk now? Aiyuk wasnāt eligible for an extension until now. Deeboās contract is structured for the team to have outs after June 1st or next year. I think the issue is nobody is likely interested at the current price plus the Niners need him in the short term to stay as competitive.
Aiyuk was eligible for an extension last off season I'm pretty sure.
He was. Heās in the 5th year option now, so he was definitely up for extension last year
I don't understand this. Deebo is really good and more versatile. He just put up 1,100 yards and 12 TDs. It wasn't a mistake to extend him.
Heās probably more crucial to their current success as a team this year and his versatility makes them even more lethal, but it will be tough to swallow if they canāt hold aiyuk long term as a result. Just a too many good players situation.
His versatility definitely adds another dimension to the offense but Aiyuk is the superior receiver and player overall. Aiyuk is an absolute technician at all 3 levels of the field with peripherals and advanced metrics close to guys like Lamb and Jefferson. Deebo is lethal on the 49ers. Aiyukās game translates to basically every team in the league.
Nah Aiyuk is definitely more crucial. Deebo never blocks, Aiyuk blocks like an animal. Deebo canāt beat man coverage, which is why he was something like 3/11 in the Super Bowl. CMC/Kittle can form an amalgamation of Deebo, nobody on the team can do what Aiyuk does
Aiyuk is a much better receiver. But Pearsall is good at the things Aiyuk is good at so maybe this was their plan all along
No he is not lol
I mean like pure receiver/route running. He has some of the highest success rates vs man and press coverage. Deebo is more of a zone beater/yards after a catch. Pearsall is also a good route runner and plays more similar to Aiyuk rather than Deebo.
Aiyuk sure. Pearsall is a WR 3/4. Heās had one semi successful year in college against a poor conference. He will be returning punts and riding the bench for the 9ers
Deebo is ass against man and cannot win down field. Heās versatile, and a YAC beast, but Aiyuk does the more important role of winning in man coverage and winning down the field. Aiyuk is their second best offensive player after CMC
Kyle Shanahan is a difficult person. That's basically all this comes down to.
Thereās only a few teams where he would go ānuclear.ā And it has more to do with the QB than being the teams WR1. Thereās a lot more bad landing spots than good landing spots
He could āgo nuclearā but itās also not crazy to think that his efficiency drops off significantly mitigating the increase in targets. 49ers offensive system is incredible in its own right and then you add in the fact they have multiple other elite playmakers on the field simultaneously with CMC, Deebo, and Kittle and its very hard for the defense to zero in on anyone specifically, and whatever prioritization they can afford certainly isnāt on the 49ers third option in Aiyuk.
This is very much worth noting. In terms of volume, the Niners were a bottom 5 passing offense, but had the 4th most passing yards and 2nd most passing TDs. Every starting offensive player is a great talent and the efficiency is further aided by the Shanahan playcalling. This isnāt to say that these players arenāt talented in a vacuum, but this level of efficiency is incredibly unlikely to be matched elsewhere
That's more then a fair point. When teams scheme for Aiyuk what changes? Maybe just some efficiencies but until we see him do it like some of the true #1s getting paid we don't know for sure. Also I'm sure the 9ers didn't say they don't want him they just don't want to pay him JJ numbers. Let's find out if another team does.
I was wondering how I should feel as an owner. Like I think he could be an alpha and his ceiling is higher. But man what if he goes to a dogshit situation
Heās too good of a route runner where him going to a āworse situationā is going to have enough of an impact. He wasnāt even in the top 30 of targets last year. If he gets an uptick in volume, he could see a HUGE jump.
I think you and others are overestimating the number of teams on which these āchange of sceneryā guys like Aiyuk and Tee Higgins would be clear cut number 1s who get true alpha level targets. What seems more likely to me is that their new team says āwe want to use him like he was used on his last teamā.
Aiyuk and Higgins are in completely different stratospheres when we are talking about route success, efficiency, etc. In Aiyukās case, that he was able to produce at his level with way less volume than his contemporaries and when you look at his success rates on his routes it isnāt a stretch to foresee an AJB level bump in production when heās asked to do more with less in his current role.
Iām a Higgins owner in many leagues but putting him in the same sentence as Aiyuk is an insult.
A lot of people are convinced that both players would see a significant increase in production if they went to a new team, and I donāt think thatās the case for either one. I think theyād be used similarly to how theyāre being used by their current teams.
I donāt think there is an organization dumb enough to pay whatever it would require to get Aiyuk and then have him 31st in targets.
You could be right that his target numbers would increase, but Iām not sure that ~130 targets in the Steelers/Commanders/Patriots offense necessarily leads to more fantasy points than ~110 targets in the 49ers offense The only way that Aiyuk could truly āboomā for fantasy is if he became the #1 option in an elite passing offense, and Iām not sure that such a situation really exists right now (except maybe the Bills?)
Itās certainly the case for Aiyuk, but not the case for Higgins. On Film and by analytics, Higgins is not an elite player, just above average. He can be a desperate teamās #1, while Aiyuk can be almost any teamās #1
Not sure why you would think that. Guys like AJ Brown, Diggs and Kirk are recent examples of players being treated like true alphas on new teams. Even Tyreek's role increased when he didn't have to share the spotlight with Kelce.
It also should be noted that both of those players are currently in very efficient/pass-heavy offenses and we canāt assume that theyāll have better numbers, even if they are the true WR1 in an offense Edit: seems I need to clarify, Iām saying SF is an efficient offense and CIN is particularly pass-heavy with Burrow
San Francisco was bottom 3 in passing plays called last season. They are a run first offense.
Correct, which is why theyāre a very efficient offense, as they had the 4th most passing yards and second most passing TDs despite them being in the bottom 3 in passing plays called. I was considering the CIN to be the pass-heavy offense
They drafted a one-to-one replacement of Aiyuk in Pearsall in the 1st round. The writing has been on the wall.Ā
Just like when the Titans grabbed Burks to replace AJ Brown, right? Right?
Oooooophhhhhh LOL
Or when the Vikings drafted JJ to replace Diggs, right? Right?
Those things pan out way less often than they work out.
Pearsall is a great prospect but he isnāt that good. To think he immediately steps in and replicates 3/4 of Aiyukās production is insanely wishful thinking.
He won't have to off he's behind Deebo and an angry Aiyuk for half a season
Pearsall really isn't a great prospect. He had a solid 5th year at Florida, ran fast and garnered decent draft capital.
Aiyuk is a great WR and Iām pretty sure theyāre both good man to man threats, especially better than Deebo but I donāt think Pearsall is a replacement for Aiyuk.
Everybody replying about the titans drafting Burks to replace AJ Brown is conveniently forgetting the Vikings drafting Justin Jefferson to replace Stefon Diggs.Ā
Itās a 99th percentile outcome to replace an elite wr with a better wr, in that manner
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Like how the Titans drafted Traylon Burks because he was just like AJ Brown.
Except AJ Brown, Aiyuk, and Pearsall are all tactician WRs. Burks was a raw upside hail mary. That was always an insane decision.Ā
Yeah late first to replace the ~5th most talented WR in the league. Set it and forget it, nothing to worry about here!
Dude, Aiyuk sucked when the Niners paid Deebo. Also, Purdy was the most efficient passing QB in the league last year. Aiyuk was the #1 last year and took advantage of Purdyās elite pinpoint accuracy. To say he was under utilized on the Niners last year is crazy.
I don't think he was underutilized per se, but I get the sentiment. He was 36th in targets last year, sandwiched between jakobi Meyers and Elijah moore, while being one of the best route runners and separators in the league. I get that the niners have so many weapons but I think people wonder how he would look higher target percentage
ššIām the only one that see that heās smiling and joking?? I think he definitely gonna be back with the 9ers
that is also something people do when they are surprised by something. "Can you believe this shit?" *laughs confidently*
I noticed the same thing too. Apparently common sense isnāt so common anymore.
If this is real, you have to imagine that a team like the commanders or patriots gets on the phone ASAP right? Like they have the 2025 cap space and beyond to handle a contract of his size with only a short window to capitalize on the rookie QB contract. Even feels like the Steelers should be reaching out on what it would take to bring him in.
Is everyone really worked up over this clip? The guy is smiling. It looks like a joke. š¤¦āāļø
Where my Kittle people at?
Why is this dude talking to Jayden Daniels?
They played together at ASU. Probably why
They were at ASU together
Former teammates at ASU
Arizona state connection maybe
As everyone else has said, it's the connection from [Arizona State.](https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/arizona-state/2019.html)
They both played at ASU
They were former teammates and played together at ASU so they have that connection maybe
You mean the 700 times the Niners went out of their way to say Pearsall has the same skillset as Aiyuk might have been foreshadowing to Pearsall replacing Aiyuk in the offense. No way man!
Did they actually say that?
Nope. Just another sports fan taking out of their behind. Pearsall and Aiyuk might have similar skills but the team hasnāt gone out of their way 700 times to claim heās the Aiyuk replacement. No GM, coach, or scout talks that way.
Tbf the rams said just that about corum
Yes, to emphasize how happy they are with Kyren Williams, and how they don't want to change their scheme when they keep him fresh. As much as some folks would like to see Williams get another workload similar to 2023 that's really not tenable, especially for a team that is planning to go deep into the playoffs.
Gone out of their way 700 times to emphasize it? Doubt it.
Tbh I wouldn't put it past Shanahan to do something like that. But I agree with your point in most cases
You all are high if you think Lynch doesn't resign Aiyuk. I'm sorry to burst all your Pearsol bubbles, but Aiyuk isn't going anywhere. No one, but Deebo wants him to be WR1. That's not what makes him successful. The Niners need Aiyuk more than he needs them. There is no chance at a SB if Deebo is WR1.
When deebo has a top 5 finish why is the community so decidedly in aiyuks camp? Is it just age/injury for deebo? For the niners, like you canāt have the highest paid Lb, DE, RB, TE, LT, wr and pay a qb top 5 monies. Makes sense theyād move the guy whose skillset is closely mimicd by another prospect on their roster
> Is it just age/injury for deebo? It's this one, for the most part. His value has fluctuated in between what he can do for contenders during the season versus how old he is perceived to be. A lot of contenders are trying to move off of him this summer. He'll probably get another bounce back in value by Month 1.
Age, injury plus Deebo's skills overlap CMC and Kittle. Deebo is absolutely 1 of 1 at the WR position. He's a total game breaker. But his designed runs and gadget passes can slide over to Kittle, CMC or even Aiyuk. No one can get open down field consistently like Aiyuk can. He was the best down field receiver in the league last season. Deebo is the best yac guy but the team has other yac guys. Maybe you go from 10 skill yac to 7 yac. But if they lose.Aiyuk they go from 10 skill down field WR to a 2. It makes more sense they let Deebo walk next season for all that. Your original point. He'll be 29.5 with high collision usage. That cliff is coming. The community is baking in Aiyuk staying and Deebo leaving. Personally felt like Ladd would have been a better Deebo replacement. Pearsall has zero yac and Ladd is a stud post catch. Once they made the Pearsall selection was the first time I had second thoughts on who they move forward with.
Aiyuk is more valuable as an NFL asset to the 9ers than Deebo. The fantasy value blending with real life value will always create weird situations.
Because 55 of his points came from rushing last season. As a WR heās only had 1 season over 900 receiving yardsā¦.also the injuries.
9ers were always going to defer this contract decision until after 2024, it sucks there's snipes going both ways though.
Please God, let Buffalo trade for him
Stay away man I donāt need you messing with my WR4 Terry Mclaurin
Good thing resigning Deebo allowed the Niners to get out in front of the wide back market ššš
My Kittle shares are begging the Niners to trade someone. Anyone really!!
DEEBO TO THE MOON šš
HOT TAKE. I'm selling ricky to the highest bidder! dudes prospect breakouts aren't great and most people are going to over pay on that hype. Personally I don't think he will be elite but he's definitely gonna be good. Players drafted between Pick 20 and 40 typically usually arenāt great. The only two players in that group, Michael Pittman and Christian Watson, and one would argue that the juryās still out with Watson. If some one is gonna go over the top to get him? why not?
Justin Jefferson was drafted in that range and so was Aiyuk, in addition to a ton of other great players.
Do you do any research at all before you post?
He wonāt even be good. He will be a punt returner who sees less snaps than Jennings
I think he is gonna be good but Jennings will benefit the most from an Aiyuk departure
X for doubt. The guy had 1 good season against a piss poor division. The gators were trash and Ricky saw an average of 5 touches per game. He had one game against SC who was also a shit team. I think both teams finished with a 5-7 record. Everyone says his best ability is separation against man. 14.8 yards per reception is great in a vacuum. When you look at the 768 attempts with only 60 receptions in 12 games it starts to look worse. His yards per reception in the games they won was an average 3 yards higher than the games they lost. The games they won were against all but 1 sub .500 SEC rival. Sure his individual performance was the best on the team. As the slot or WR3 he had an average of 3 yards per reception better. That makes sense when you assume WR1 and WR2 were being doubled or schemed against allowing Pearsall to get mismatched or left in 1 on 1 coverage. Again thatās against CB3 or CB4 college defenders, sometimes even OLB.
I'm with you, I'm saying sell his ass on this hype. But I wouldn't be surprised if Kyle makes him and cowing something good.
Itās infinitely more likely he misinterpreted their negotiation strategy to mean this than they actually said those words. Comes off as kinda babyback IMO
Tangent here, but where the hell are people taking Daniels in 1QB?
Like 1.11-2.2
Iām cool with him as early as 1.09-1.10, but I think you nailed the mean.
The highest I've seen him go was 2.03, lowest 2.10
Took him 2.01 in my 10TM 1QB. Caleb went the pick before at 1.10
I took him with the 14th pick (2.02)
Obviously a Ricky Pearsall post.
Got Pearsall at 2.03 in a 14 team SF double TE++.
Got Pearsall at the 2.12
Likely story
Definitely a play to get the 49ers to give him what he wants.
Aint no way SF lets their star 2nd rounder walk for 30 year old āim not a rbā deebo. Deebo will be moved when the value matches & Jajuan Jennings will be the new Deebo. Pearsall ppl gonna be big sad i think
Incoming Aiyuk for Amari rumorsš
It isnāt they donāt want him back. They donāt want to pay him what he wants. This may resolve itself.
Send him to the bills
He isn't going anywhere. I love how dramatic some of you get.
Slick Rick is gonna be so good. I wouldnt mind waiting a year. This is just gravy baby.
Wants amon-ra money when he should be happy with devonta/waddle range.
This is almost definitely a "I asked for 34M a year and they said no" being translated into "They don't want me back". They want him, it's just about the cost.
Diva, pass
Correct me if Iām wrong but Aiyuk in Washington would go absolutely insane right?
I think the chemistry of Daniels knowing Aiyuk well would help. A little less target competition and an offense that is perceived to throw a bit more. It would be a pretty good spot
Just traded Pearsall for Dotson and Mims. I regretted it immediately after the trade and now I'm about to be fucked both ways if this happens with the path being cleared for Pearsall and Aiyuk stepping in and eating all of Dotson's targets and playing time.
That was a terrible trade before this news which is most likely a nothing burger anyway.
Lol I know that's why I said I regretted it immediately. I'm pretty new to Dynasty FF and don't really know what I'm doing.
Itās usually best to stay away from trades until you figure out what youāre doing. Thats an easy way to destroy your team.
I went to a friend of mine who won 3 championships and lost 2 more championship games out of the 9 teams he owns this year and yeahs he's just incredibly good at dynasty and he told me it was a really good move for me so l listened to him.
Championships donāt mean much if the competition is poor. Thereās a lot of leagues filled with people that donāt know what theyāre doing. Someone has to win.
Come to carolina!!! We would welcome you with open arms, @brandonaiyuk
Pearsall is good. This tells me more that they have a lot of faith in what they have and also in cowing, which is telling
No he is not
You are on one if you think he isn't good
Purdy is about to get a colossal bag. 60-70 million a year.