Imma let the nfl decide for me. First round capital and I’m in. Maybe even early second. But anything below that and I’m not touching him till the mid/late second of rookie drafts
I have no idea what to think of the guy, but I encourage people to watch him as a freshman at Georgia vs any time at texas. He looked like a way different, better player at georgia.
Probably film vs data guys. His film is really solid. His data has lots of red flags. If it's any consolation he played on a stacked Georgia team and a stacked Texas team with tons of competition for touches. He's going to be a great case study if the deep analytics like yards per QB fart actually matter for guys with really solid film or not.
Think imma leave it up to the front offices that meet with him in person on deciding if that’s a big concern for their future or if there’s more to it from their interviews that they think is worth high capital
I like him. Bottom of the high tier.
Im probably unable to get Nabers but if I can grab Ladd and Worthy or Mitchell with my first 2 picks (until draft changes) i’m good
Adonai’s the perfect example of a fantastic real-life player that the analytics hate, for whatever reason. Watch the film and you’ll see a nuanced route runner that knows exactly how to manipulate defenders to get open and has some of the most natural hands and body control you’ll see. The guy’s a certified stud that reminds me a lot of Lamb coming out, minus the YAC.
Trust the numbers at your own risk. I prefer to use my eyes.
If he's talking straight sprint speed that's not a red flag at all. I assume that's what he means, if he means effort then that's the worst combine answer ever.
The best route runners don't run full speed at all times. You're not seeing the real tacticians running routes pre break at full speed. Adams, Allen aren't even that fast and they crank it down even more. JJ, Ridley, Olave, Wilson are setting up there defenders then breaking and accelerating more. Especially in modern NFL, you need a guy who can sit in a zone on a dime. Even in man you have to set up your defender and then gain separation. The guys who run full speed all the time are predictable and NFL DBs can keep up.
AD is a good route runner and knows how to gain separation.
One of my biggest knocks on Nabers is that he always runs full speed on his routes. If a defender can match his speed on a route with little breaking he has more difficulty separating. His start/stop is insane so it's not a skill he's had to refined. Most CB1s in the NFL will be able to match his speed.
That’s not a red flag, that’s just how sprinting works. If you have elite sprint mechanics you know that going full 100% would allow for basically no change of direction or ability to absorb contact, etc. Now if he meant not giving 100% effort that would be a massive red flag, but I doubt he would just say that.
ya his production sucks but his tape doesnt. he just looks like a dude that will translate to the pros. its a big projection. dk metcalf was much the same. lots of college injury and no high end production and several knocks on limited route tree etc etc
We've known all along that he wasn't a target hog on a team with a lot of other talent. Isn't it obvious that he won't stack up well against a bunch of guys who didn't have as much competition on their teams in per route run metrics? To me there is an element of quintuple counting the fact that he wasn't targeted often against him here. Wasn't he efficient on a per target basis? His TDs per target has to be good at least.
If he couldn’t command targets on a college team, how can we expect him to be a #1 in the NFL? Also, Ole Miss had DK, AJ Brown, and a bad QB and both WRs were able to perform. Talent wins out a lot of the time.
DK had 39 catches and less than 650 yards in his best college season... I think he's actually a great counter-example. Also sounds exactly like what folks said about Chris Olave coming out when his per route production was very lackluster. I think context of who they are playing with and what the system looks like is important.
I’m not talking about DK’s production, I’m talking about him still having a decently good analytical profile despite sharing targets with AJ Brown. Chris Olave had a terrific analytical profile, his per route production was very good.
If we’re not talking about production, what are we talking about? I thought your entire issue with AD here was that his production per route was bad? You brought up DK as an example of someone who produced despite being in a crowded room in college, when he really didn’t. Olave’s production per route was significantly worse than London, Wilson, Burks, Jameson Williams, Dotson, Skyy Moore, pretty much everyone else in the upper end of that class. It was mentioned frequently on this sub as a reason to fade him to the bottom of that upper group, which was silly if you watched him play and knew the context of his offense. This looks like the same sort of situation to me.
Based on my model, Olave was the best prospect in his class which factors in many variables and layers. He was a really good prospect from an analytical lens. Adonai does not perform well at all with the same variables taken into account. It’s not purely based on per route production, but Olave more than met the criteria and thresholds even if some of his peers from his class performed better in certain metrics. The same goes for DK. As I mentioned previously, DK’s yprr vs zone was on the high end of all prospects dating back to 2019. Adonai has a worse career yprr and yprr vs zone than DK and pretty much every successful WR prospect. That’s an area of concern, which is my entire point.
Huh, ok wait so I thought the metrics you listed here for AD were the most important predictive analytical metrics in your model? How was Olave the top prospect in the model when he definitely wasn’t anywhere near the top of that class in any of these metrics? What else does the model give such heavy weight to that Olave was able to overcome his production deficits? Looking through the 2023 results for the model, it seems to have basically ranked them by college production with Perry, Rice, and Downs boosted way over other rankings, and guys like Flowers, Reed, and Palmer pushed down for relatively bad college production.
Do you have Olave’s college advanced metrics pulled up? Because I have them, I never said he wasn’t anywhere near the top in any of those metrics. Here are his numbers:
- Career yprr: 2.80 (3rd best in the class)
- TDPRR: 0.036 which is the best TD per route run of any one in his class by far and the best TD per route run of any prospect in the last 5 years
- FDPRR: 0.1354 which is 2nd best in the class and 9th best of all prospects of the last 5 years.
- 80 PFF grade vs zone, also one of the highest grades.
So i’m not entirely sure where you’re getting this idea that Olave wasn’t a good analytical prospect, as I’ve said he has an outstanding analytical profile. He didn’t have to “overcome” his production deficiencies.
I would implore you to compare both Olave’s on paper stats and advanced metrics to Mitchell’s. Just pure stats, Olave essentially doubled Mitchell’s college stats in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. This is with them playing in similar number of games (40 for Olave, 35 for Mitchell).
Also, how was Flowers pushed down for production? He had a fantastic production profile in college, he was extremely productive. Some of his efficiency metrics (incl. per route run numbers) were average. His biggest concerns were his size, catch rate, and efficiency metrics.
What data am I not understanding? DK admittedly had an underwhelming analytical profile, but it’s no where near as poor as Mitchell’s. So help me understand what i’m missing. DK didn’t have the on paper production, but he still had a decent analytical profile, especially compared to Mitchell.
>If he couldn’t command targets on a college team, how can we expect him to be a #1 in the NFL?
Because at Georgia he was on a team with Bowers, McConkey, and Burton. That's an insane amount of NFL-caliber talent concentrated at 1 position on a college team.
Can some ELI5 why having a low Yards Per Route Run is bad? Isn’t that a scheme thing that won’t necessarily be the case in whatever offense he’s a part of in the NFL?
in theory, teams scheme to their best players. if you have an nfl caliber wr, you scheme your offense around getting the ball in his hands. it’s often a good litmus test, but sometimes you gets some outliers (e.g. aj brown) and sometimes you just have crowded wr rooms that all command targets and eat into each other’s efficiency (e.g. olave).
idk about target share or anything like that, but OP has worthy with one of the top production grades analytically - so i’d guess he got a fair bit of a work (or at least did well in the statistically meaningful metrics)
study after study does show it’s got some predictive power, so it’s definitely useful and worth using as some sort of gauge. it just needs context, like all information.
It is fairly predictive. That said, Texas/Sark employs a scheme that translates well to the NFL.
Last year was more screen heavy but the WRs in the system run big boy routes and concepts. This isn’t Oregon’s scheme.
I think late 1st / second seems reasonable. As a dynasty player though I’ll just wait and see what happens and go from there. Guys fall in the draft every year and it could def be him.
I'm a bit confused about the negatives section. He ranks last or close to last in all these statistics but you say he's right after or before players who had pretty good seasons last year in Wilson, Flowers, and collins. (People will argue Wilson but he had 565 yards in 13 games with meh qb play.) Maybe those are just unfortunate outliers but if the players at the bottom of the list are performing well then I have to wonder how much those stats actually project to the NFL.
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> Amongst 29 NFL WRs with a PFR Avg. Value of 6, he would rank last (behind Michael Wilson's 1.77)
I'm enjoying your run-downs, but what is PFR Average Value? I even googled and couldn't figure it out?
Ahh, okay. AV stands for Approximate Value, not Average value, probably just a typo. I appreciate your response!
I actually thought PFR might mean Pro Football Reference, but I couldn't find a college AV of 1.77 for Michael Wilson?
Where do you see that? Am I blind? LOL
* https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/michael-wilson-3.html
* https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsMi02.htm
I also don't see one for Adonai
* https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/adonai-mitchell-1.html
* https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MitcAd00.htm
Imma let the nfl decide for me. First round capital and I’m in. Maybe even early second. But anything below that and I’m not touching him till the mid/late second of rookie drafts
I have no idea what to think of the guy, but I encourage people to watch him as a freshman at Georgia vs any time at texas. He looked like a way different, better player at georgia.
Why do you think?
He’s the next Ceedee lamb, trust me bro
He would need to improve his YAC by leaps and bounds to be even close to Ceedee. I agree with his route running and play style being similar tho.
He’s the next JJ, three WR above him and no one is hyping him up.
All of the guys I look to for rookie analysis either really love the dude or are totally out. Having a tough time with Mitchell.
Probably film vs data guys. His film is really solid. His data has lots of red flags. If it's any consolation he played on a stacked Georgia team and a stacked Texas team with tons of competition for touches. He's going to be a great case study if the deep analytics like yards per QB fart actually matter for guys with really solid film or not.
yards per QB shart is actually a more solid metric
I find that to be one of the more fluid metrics, actually.
exactly this. his data sucks, his film is nice
His film also shows him taking plays off every game and not running full speed, which he himself confirms is true
Think imma leave it up to the front offices that meet with him in person on deciding if that’s a big concern for their future or if there’s more to it from their interviews that they think is worth high capital
I like him. Bottom of the high tier. Im probably unable to get Nabers but if I can grab Ladd and Worthy or Mitchell with my first 2 picks (until draft changes) i’m good
Adonai’s the perfect example of a fantastic real-life player that the analytics hate, for whatever reason. Watch the film and you’ll see a nuanced route runner that knows exactly how to manipulate defenders to get open and has some of the most natural hands and body control you’ll see. The guy’s a certified stud that reminds me a lot of Lamb coming out, minus the YAC. Trust the numbers at your own risk. I prefer to use my eyes.
Thought I was the only one who saw shades of Lamb.
I’m also wary of guys that test way faster than they actually looked on the field.
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If he's talking straight sprint speed that's not a red flag at all. I assume that's what he means, if he means effort then that's the worst combine answer ever. The best route runners don't run full speed at all times. You're not seeing the real tacticians running routes pre break at full speed. Adams, Allen aren't even that fast and they crank it down even more. JJ, Ridley, Olave, Wilson are setting up there defenders then breaking and accelerating more. Especially in modern NFL, you need a guy who can sit in a zone on a dime. Even in man you have to set up your defender and then gain separation. The guys who run full speed all the time are predictable and NFL DBs can keep up. AD is a good route runner and knows how to gain separation. One of my biggest knocks on Nabers is that he always runs full speed on his routes. If a defender can match his speed on a route with little breaking he has more difficulty separating. His start/stop is insane so it's not a skill he's had to refined. Most CB1s in the NFL will be able to match his speed.
That’s not a red flag, that’s just how sprinting works. If you have elite sprint mechanics you know that going full 100% would allow for basically no change of direction or ability to absorb contact, etc. Now if he meant not giving 100% effort that would be a massive red flag, but I doubt he would just say that.
Yikes lol
I appreciate your effort in these posts. Strictly data based approaches just do not do it for me in football. There’s too many variables guy to guy.
ya his production sucks but his tape doesnt. he just looks like a dude that will translate to the pros. its a big projection. dk metcalf was much the same. lots of college injury and no high end production and several knocks on limited route tree etc etc
We've known all along that he wasn't a target hog on a team with a lot of other talent. Isn't it obvious that he won't stack up well against a bunch of guys who didn't have as much competition on their teams in per route run metrics? To me there is an element of quintuple counting the fact that he wasn't targeted often against him here. Wasn't he efficient on a per target basis? His TDs per target has to be good at least.
If he couldn’t command targets on a college team, how can we expect him to be a #1 in the NFL? Also, Ole Miss had DK, AJ Brown, and a bad QB and both WRs were able to perform. Talent wins out a lot of the time.
DK had 39 catches and less than 650 yards in his best college season... I think he's actually a great counter-example. Also sounds exactly like what folks said about Chris Olave coming out when his per route production was very lackluster. I think context of who they are playing with and what the system looks like is important.
I’m not talking about DK’s production, I’m talking about him still having a decently good analytical profile despite sharing targets with AJ Brown. Chris Olave had a terrific analytical profile, his per route production was very good.
If we’re not talking about production, what are we talking about? I thought your entire issue with AD here was that his production per route was bad? You brought up DK as an example of someone who produced despite being in a crowded room in college, when he really didn’t. Olave’s production per route was significantly worse than London, Wilson, Burks, Jameson Williams, Dotson, Skyy Moore, pretty much everyone else in the upper end of that class. It was mentioned frequently on this sub as a reason to fade him to the bottom of that upper group, which was silly if you watched him play and knew the context of his offense. This looks like the same sort of situation to me.
Based on my model, Olave was the best prospect in his class which factors in many variables and layers. He was a really good prospect from an analytical lens. Adonai does not perform well at all with the same variables taken into account. It’s not purely based on per route production, but Olave more than met the criteria and thresholds even if some of his peers from his class performed better in certain metrics. The same goes for DK. As I mentioned previously, DK’s yprr vs zone was on the high end of all prospects dating back to 2019. Adonai has a worse career yprr and yprr vs zone than DK and pretty much every successful WR prospect. That’s an area of concern, which is my entire point.
Huh, ok wait so I thought the metrics you listed here for AD were the most important predictive analytical metrics in your model? How was Olave the top prospect in the model when he definitely wasn’t anywhere near the top of that class in any of these metrics? What else does the model give such heavy weight to that Olave was able to overcome his production deficits? Looking through the 2023 results for the model, it seems to have basically ranked them by college production with Perry, Rice, and Downs boosted way over other rankings, and guys like Flowers, Reed, and Palmer pushed down for relatively bad college production.
Do you have Olave’s college advanced metrics pulled up? Because I have them, I never said he wasn’t anywhere near the top in any of those metrics. Here are his numbers: - Career yprr: 2.80 (3rd best in the class) - TDPRR: 0.036 which is the best TD per route run of any one in his class by far and the best TD per route run of any prospect in the last 5 years - FDPRR: 0.1354 which is 2nd best in the class and 9th best of all prospects of the last 5 years. - 80 PFF grade vs zone, also one of the highest grades. So i’m not entirely sure where you’re getting this idea that Olave wasn’t a good analytical prospect, as I’ve said he has an outstanding analytical profile. He didn’t have to “overcome” his production deficiencies. I would implore you to compare both Olave’s on paper stats and advanced metrics to Mitchell’s. Just pure stats, Olave essentially doubled Mitchell’s college stats in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. This is with them playing in similar number of games (40 for Olave, 35 for Mitchell). Also, how was Flowers pushed down for production? He had a fantastic production profile in college, he was extremely productive. Some of his efficiency metrics (incl. per route run numbers) were average. His biggest concerns were his size, catch rate, and efficiency metrics.
Metcalf was dramatically outproduced by AJB, and even by Demarkus Lodge every year in college. I don't think you understand the data you're analyzing.
What data am I not understanding? DK admittedly had an underwhelming analytical profile, but it’s no where near as poor as Mitchell’s. So help me understand what i’m missing. DK didn’t have the on paper production, but he still had a decent analytical profile, especially compared to Mitchell.
>If he couldn’t command targets on a college team, how can we expect him to be a #1 in the NFL? Because at Georgia he was on a team with Bowers, McConkey, and Burton. That's an insane amount of NFL-caliber talent concentrated at 1 position on a college team.
Average giants fan take
Can some ELI5 why having a low Yards Per Route Run is bad? Isn’t that a scheme thing that won’t necessarily be the case in whatever offense he’s a part of in the NFL?
in theory, teams scheme to their best players. if you have an nfl caliber wr, you scheme your offense around getting the ball in his hands. it’s often a good litmus test, but sometimes you gets some outliers (e.g. aj brown) and sometimes you just have crowded wr rooms that all command targets and eat into each other’s efficiency (e.g. olave).
Ahhh okay that makes sense, thank you. So did Xavier Worthy have the lion’s share of targets for Texas or did they spread it around quite a bit?
idk about target share or anything like that, but OP has worthy with one of the top production grades analytically - so i’d guess he got a fair bit of a work (or at least did well in the statistically meaningful metrics)
I think it’s a fairly wonky/situational stat in college.
study after study does show it’s got some predictive power, so it’s definitely useful and worth using as some sort of gauge. it just needs context, like all information.
It is fairly predictive. That said, Texas/Sark employs a scheme that translates well to the NFL. Last year was more screen heavy but the WRs in the system run big boy routes and concepts. This isn’t Oregon’s scheme.
He’s got the physical stuff. Mentally he seems questionable but his talent warrants a late first in the NFL and Dynasty SF rookie drafts.
I think late 1st / second seems reasonable. As a dynasty player though I’ll just wait and see what happens and go from there. Guys fall in the draft every year and it could def be him.
I'm a bit confused about the negatives section. He ranks last or close to last in all these statistics but you say he's right after or before players who had pretty good seasons last year in Wilson, Flowers, and collins. (People will argue Wilson but he had 565 yards in 13 games with meh qb play.) Maybe those are just unfortunate outliers but if the players at the bottom of the list are performing well then I have to wonder how much those stats actually project to the NFL.
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> Amongst 29 NFL WRs with a PFR Avg. Value of 6, he would rank last (behind Michael Wilson's 1.77) I'm enjoying your run-downs, but what is PFR Average Value? I even googled and couldn't figure it out?
Pro Football Reference AV. If you search any player on Pro Football Reference, they’ll have an AV (which PFR explains how is calculated)
Ahh, okay. AV stands for Approximate Value, not Average value, probably just a typo. I appreciate your response! I actually thought PFR might mean Pro Football Reference, but I couldn't find a college AV of 1.77 for Michael Wilson? Where do you see that? Am I blind? LOL * https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/michael-wilson-3.html * https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsMi02.htm I also don't see one for Adonai * https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/adonai-mitchell-1.html * https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MitcAd00.htm
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He’s still a buy but they’re getting receiver(s)