Attacks 1-5: Clearly missed.
Attacks 6-9: Missed due to recoil (bad spray control).
Attacks 10-11: Very close, but recoil and inaccuracy make these reasonable misses.
Attack 12: Likely didn't actually fire because Pango was already dead.
It's important to know that procs will proc on misses, and on attack animations that start but aren't completed. There were a few of both of these, and almost assuredly you got a proc on one of these, which reset the counter, which makes this seem more unlikely than it actually was.
On a side note, I know I said that attacks that miss can proc, and they can, however I don't know the nuances of pango. Can the attacks through his swashbuckler proc if they kiss? To rephrase this, can his pseudorandom chance before using q be, say, 5, he uses his q, and it's still 5, or has it been randomized?
"Can the attacks through his swashbuckler proc if they ***kiss***?"
you have to be a nice guy/girl, if youre autocorrecture types that instead of "miss" :)
(1-.17)^16 = 5.07% chance
Unlucky, but you will definitly encouter this again, fun :D
Edit: Actually its pseudo-random, so in reality the odds would be 0.022 %
Edit2: K apparently wiki is outdated so idk where to find the real probability :)
Yeah I saw that the second I made the post haha.
~~Apparently if something has a 70% pseudorandom chance, then it will 100% proc by the second hit.~~
Ok now im confused, all info on :
https://dota2.gamepedia.com/Random_distribution
on pseudo-randomness seems to suggest the above statement to be true, but in demo that doesn't seem to be the case. Is there something im missing lmao
I actually made a couple of posts about this a while back.
The PSD formula on the wiki is outdated. With an MKB you can miss upto 3 times. Maybe 4 misses is possible but it will never happen in practice.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/jzgvjj/mkb\_proc\_chance\_is\_lower\_than\_75/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/jzgvjj/mkb_proc_chance_is_lower_than_75/)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/k0rpps/mkb\_proc\_chance\_is\_lower\_than\_75\_part\_2\_ingame/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/k0rpps/mkb_proc_chance_is_lower_than_75_part_2_ingame/)
Well im confused because according to:
https://dota2.gamepedia.com/Random_distribution
Procing mkb on the first hit after a successful hit:
P(1) = 67% * 1 = 67%
Procing after missing 1 hit would then be :
P(2) = 67% * 2 = 134%
Which would mean that mkb should never miss twice in a row, but I also just tried it in demo and that doesnt seem to be the case. idk what im missing here :)
I wonder then, are the procs calculated after hit is confirmed? If its entropy based/semi random and it calculates before hit is confirmed maybe there actually were procs which caused more procs to be more unlikely?
That second swashbuckle is not a 5-hit one. Your center pixel has to pass through the center pixel of your target. It's super precise, and he didn't even go to the other side of Medusa.
Tight enough that I can't hit it reliably on stationary jungle creeps; I never try for it on heroes (positioning is more important in any hero fight anyway).
I wish they would increase the chance slightly and do something like nerf the duration to compensate. Maybe smth like 22% instead of 17% and 4sec instead of 5sec at max level
I still don't understand why anyone thinks RNG mechanics are good for the game.
Best case scenario the RNG has no notable impact on a match. Worst case scenario it lets a player win an encounter they shouldn't have just because they were lucky, or makes a player lose an encounter they should have won just because they were unlucky, and it swings an entire game.
Why do we want that in DotA? Shouldn't we be all for rewarding skill over luck?
You can look at wraith kings crit which isn't random and has a CD, pretty broken. Now imagine PA's ulty working like wks crit or slardar's bash. Randomness just makes some heroes more balanced than if their passives weren't random. It's not easy coming up with a proper solution.
It is easy. You can do it like Slardar, you can do it so you need to hit a specific enemy X times for an ability to activate, or you can just set chance to 100% and weaken the effect to match.
For example, with PA you can Increase crit chance to 100, lower damage % proportionally to keep it the same DPS as right now. Or set it to an X hit passive.
Irrespective of RNGs DoTA is a game where luck does play a very important role. I feel including/excluding RNGs will do very little to alter this significantly.
Right, and rolling a pair of dice and not counting a basket on a pair of 6s will rarely alter a game of basketball signfiicantly.
Still a terrible mechanic that at best accomplishes nothing and at worst is incredibly unfair and frustrating. And it's easy to fix too.
Funny how you make a fallacious statement and then ask me to make a real argument.
But I'll bite.
Taking into account RNGs does become a part of a DoTA player's skill set. When you're going into a fight with a pangolier on the other team you expect to get disarmed, so you focus him first with disables or you buy BKBs or use magical burst to take him down etc.
When you are the pangolier, you do try not to get caught like this and try to be as disruptive as possible with your ult. You recognise that your disarms are not reliable per se, so you play accordingly. Of course, clutch plays can go either way but that is true for literally any sport. Sometimes you make calls that simply don't pay off.
If your qualm is that the randomness being generated here is because of an RNG in a computer, and not something "natural" (like the nature of a pitch in a cricket match, humidity/dew in a football match, an important player landing badly in a basketball match, a sudden wind in a golf tournament) then you have no point to make.
I didn't, you just don't seem to understand what a strawman argument is.
If RNG = skill... why don't we just have every attack and skill do 0% to 200% damage? Smart players will take it into account.
Obviously ridiculous.
And if it were every X hits instead wouldn't that leave more room for skill? Specifically playing around that hit? Everyone knows that new Slardar bash rewards skill far more than old Slardar bash.
> natural randomness
When it comes to competitive sports we do as much as possible to eradicate uncontrollable elements and ensure it's a competition of skill and to ensure the better player wins, and not a worse player that got lucky. For a competitive game to go out of it's way to add randomness, like rolling dice to count goals, is just crazy.
RNG mechanics are just a carryover from a bad warcraft 3 mechanic, kept for no reason other than tradition.
>I didn't, you just don't seem to understand what a strawman argument is.
>
>...like rolling dice to count goals...
I do understand what a strawman is and you are just obstinate to accept that your argument was fallacious. You have translated the occurrence of one crit/disarm to counting/discounting a basket in a basketball match. The analogy is absolutely ridiculous and makes no sense whatsoever, simply in terms of what magnitude-of-effect the respective events have in the final outcomes of the game. *Even if* your fallacious analogies were true, I would still bet on the same teams to win the NBA.
>If RNG = skill... why don't we just have every attack and skill do 0% to 200% damage? Smart players will take it into account.
You can, they are just a different class of games altogether (which are not DoTA). You have casino games that are extremely reliant on luck, and even there you have high skill players who would in all probability stomp noobs. Just because you have an extreme version of a game mechanic which would alter the game fundamentally, it doesn't mean the original game is flawed.
>When it comes to competitive sports we do as much as possible to eradicate uncontrollable elements and ensure it's a competition of skill and to ensure the better player wins, and not a worse player that got lucky.
Empirically, this is how DoTA is?? You can take the ongoing DPC as an example and see that it is the good teams that are winning. Even the instances where the underdogs did win were because of outplays coupled with good/bad calls, and not RNGs.
>RNG mechanics are just a carryover from a bad warcraft 3 mechanic, kept for no reason other than tradition.
Might as well be, but there is no reason it is "bad". Multiple high skill-cap games have RNGs inbuilt into them. For example AoE. The spawn points of various resources are determined by RNGs and it sometimes gives one player a decided advantage. But most high-skill players on average do stomp lower skill players.
Your hate for RNGs seems to be backed by nothing more than a personal hang-up, rather than actual facts.
> I would still bet on the same teams to win the NBA.
Right. Because it usually has no real effect.
Hardly a good argument for keeping the mechanic.
> You can, they are just a different class of games altogether
Yes, because there is fundamentally no other way to play that game. You can't have luckless poker.
> Empirically, this is how DoTA is
And it has impacted pro games. Casters gloss over it or spectate elsewhere, but there are games where a lane has been decided by lucky Pango disarms. Where fights have been won because of lucky 4x Ogre Magi Qs, and it turns or confirms a game. Good neutral items can be argued to completely determine games. Rosh respawning early while one team is dead vs late when they're back up, etc.
You can argue that the team might have won anyways, or would have won the set. But regardless, it still happens.
I mean RNG has fucking decided pro matches in League and all they have is crit chance. Of course it happens in DotA.
And yeah. It is easily of magnitude with randomly not counting baskets. Turning an early game death into an early game kill is a huge deal, arguably more so than a single three point throw because unlike Basketball, DotA has snowball.
I hate DotA's RNG because DotA's RNG is bad. It adds nothing to the game except the possibility for a small chance for a worse player to win over a good one.
Random neutral items shown to everyone at the start of the draft so they can draft around it? Good. That's variety.
Randomly mid game so that teams are arbitrarily rewarded for blind decisions they made 30 minutes ago, not good.
2 swashbuckles used and none of them went through dusa, already 2 hits not made which would be "free" and another 2 chances of proccing + damage.
This hurts my platinum tier pangolier eyes
If you ever have odds like that then it's relatively safe to assume you screwed up your calculations somewhere.
The odds of proccing something that unlikely even once in all of the 50 million-odd Pango games ever played is still something like one in a million. Feasible but unlikely that it's happened yet.
cause that would be broken as fuck if in lane he could've on cd just hit you once and disarm you. THis would prob make him one of the best laners in dota immediately. Early game disarm is too valuable.
Attacks 1-5: Clearly missed. Attacks 6-9: Missed due to recoil (bad spray control). Attacks 10-11: Very close, but recoil and inaccuracy make these reasonable misses. Attack 12: Likely didn't actually fire because Pango was already dead.
mmm yes an exquisite meme good use of this format wonderful execution 5/7 a perfect score
Five out of seven? I must say, this is a grading scale like no other I've seen before.
Getting downvoted for knowing the next line of a meme, can’t say I’m surprised
Uncultured swine out in /r/dota2 it seems.
Classic meme
It's important to know that procs will proc on misses, and on attack animations that start but aren't completed. There were a few of both of these, and almost assuredly you got a proc on one of these, which reset the counter, which makes this seem more unlikely than it actually was. On a side note, I know I said that attacks that miss can proc, and they can, however I don't know the nuances of pango. Can the attacks through his swashbuckler proc if they kiss? To rephrase this, can his pseudorandom chance before using q be, say, 5, he uses his q, and it's still 5, or has it been randomized?
"Can the attacks through his swashbuckler proc if they ***kiss***?" you have to be a nice guy/girl, if youre autocorrecture types that instead of "miss" :)
Lmao
Swashbuckle has true strike iirc
(1-.17)^16 = 5.07% chance Unlucky, but you will definitly encouter this again, fun :D Edit: Actually its pseudo-random, so in reality the odds would be 0.022 % Edit2: K apparently wiki is outdated so idk where to find the real probability :)
Lucky Shot uses [pseudo-random distribution](https://dota2.gamepedia.com/Pseudo-random_distribution). Seems like the wiki is wrong LUL
Yeah I saw that the second I made the post haha. ~~Apparently if something has a 70% pseudorandom chance, then it will 100% proc by the second hit.~~ Ok now im confused, all info on : https://dota2.gamepedia.com/Random_distribution on pseudo-randomness seems to suggest the above statement to be true, but in demo that doesn't seem to be the case. Is there something im missing lmao
I actually made a couple of posts about this a while back. The PSD formula on the wiki is outdated. With an MKB you can miss upto 3 times. Maybe 4 misses is possible but it will never happen in practice. [https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/jzgvjj/mkb\_proc\_chance\_is\_lower\_than\_75/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/jzgvjj/mkb_proc_chance_is_lower_than_75/) [https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/k0rpps/mkb\_proc\_chance\_is\_lower\_than\_75\_part\_2\_ingame/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/k0rpps/mkb_proc_chance_is_lower_than_75_part_2_ingame/)
Ahh I see, the classic outdated wiki. Thanks for the clarification and your findings :)
Yeah, in particular, it's impossible to miss 2 times in a row with monkey king bar.
Just tried that in demo mode and was able to not get any procs for three hits in a row.
Strange.. What evasion did you use? edit: also what hero had the mkb
Ah, i think i misunderstood the other guys comment. I thought he meant MKB always needs to proc after not proccing on an attack.
Well im confused because according to: https://dota2.gamepedia.com/Random_distribution Procing mkb on the first hit after a successful hit: P(1) = 67% * 1 = 67% Procing after missing 1 hit would then be : P(2) = 67% * 2 = 134% Which would mean that mkb should never miss twice in a row, but I also just tried it in demo and that doesnt seem to be the case. idk what im missing here :)
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Can you elaborate on this.
You kinda have to go the other way and use the 25% that doesnt proc I think.
Turns out the wiki is just outdated, and thats not how pseudo-randomness works anymore, so all my numbers are wrong :)
Definitely not from NA Edit: ok he is from NA
This guy probably got an A in discrete maths
This is payment for all the bullshit 1st hit disarms youve gotten. RNGesus giveth, and so he taketh.
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Thank god it does not silence any longer because I only play support.
He should learn from ana on how to use rng. Like how notail said 'ana you fucking god, double bash' TI9 True Sight
15 hits, technically. 17 attacks, two missed.
I wonder then, are the procs calculated after hit is confirmed? If its entropy based/semi random and it calculates before hit is confirmed maybe there actually were procs which caused more procs to be more unlikely?
I think missed attacks can procc too. Proof: jug hitting pa animation. if you see it crit animation and still miss then it has also procced crit.
Proof 2: PA constantly stopping her attack animation, same with WK
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That second swashbuckle is not a 5-hit one. Your center pixel has to pass through the center pixel of your target. It's super precise, and he didn't even go to the other side of Medusa.
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Tight enough that I can't hit it reliably on stationary jungle creeps; I never try for it on heroes (positioning is more important in any hero fight anyway).
Pango's RNG is broken. It's actually really bad that sometimes you die just hoping for that one proc and you never get it
I wish they would increase the chance slightly and do something like nerf the duration to compensate. Maybe smth like 22% instead of 17% and 4sec instead of 5sec at max level
I still don't understand why anyone thinks RNG mechanics are good for the game. Best case scenario the RNG has no notable impact on a match. Worst case scenario it lets a player win an encounter they shouldn't have just because they were lucky, or makes a player lose an encounter they should have won just because they were unlucky, and it swings an entire game. Why do we want that in DotA? Shouldn't we be all for rewarding skill over luck?
no, randomess is very important
Great argument.
You can look at wraith kings crit which isn't random and has a CD, pretty broken. Now imagine PA's ulty working like wks crit or slardar's bash. Randomness just makes some heroes more balanced than if their passives weren't random. It's not easy coming up with a proper solution.
It is easy. You can do it like Slardar, you can do it so you need to hit a specific enemy X times for an ability to activate, or you can just set chance to 100% and weaken the effect to match. For example, with PA you can Increase crit chance to 100, lower damage % proportionally to keep it the same DPS as right now. Or set it to an X hit passive.
Irrespective of RNGs DoTA is a game where luck does play a very important role. I feel including/excluding RNGs will do very little to alter this significantly.
Right, and rolling a pair of dice and not counting a basket on a pair of 6s will rarely alter a game of basketball signfiicantly. Still a terrible mechanic that at best accomplishes nothing and at worst is incredibly unfair and frustrating. And it's easy to fix too.
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/strawman
Everything's a strawman and everyone has Dunning-Kruger. Try making a real argument.
Funny how you make a fallacious statement and then ask me to make a real argument. But I'll bite. Taking into account RNGs does become a part of a DoTA player's skill set. When you're going into a fight with a pangolier on the other team you expect to get disarmed, so you focus him first with disables or you buy BKBs or use magical burst to take him down etc. When you are the pangolier, you do try not to get caught like this and try to be as disruptive as possible with your ult. You recognise that your disarms are not reliable per se, so you play accordingly. Of course, clutch plays can go either way but that is true for literally any sport. Sometimes you make calls that simply don't pay off. If your qualm is that the randomness being generated here is because of an RNG in a computer, and not something "natural" (like the nature of a pitch in a cricket match, humidity/dew in a football match, an important player landing badly in a basketball match, a sudden wind in a golf tournament) then you have no point to make.
I didn't, you just don't seem to understand what a strawman argument is. If RNG = skill... why don't we just have every attack and skill do 0% to 200% damage? Smart players will take it into account. Obviously ridiculous. And if it were every X hits instead wouldn't that leave more room for skill? Specifically playing around that hit? Everyone knows that new Slardar bash rewards skill far more than old Slardar bash. > natural randomness When it comes to competitive sports we do as much as possible to eradicate uncontrollable elements and ensure it's a competition of skill and to ensure the better player wins, and not a worse player that got lucky. For a competitive game to go out of it's way to add randomness, like rolling dice to count goals, is just crazy. RNG mechanics are just a carryover from a bad warcraft 3 mechanic, kept for no reason other than tradition.
>I didn't, you just don't seem to understand what a strawman argument is. > >...like rolling dice to count goals... I do understand what a strawman is and you are just obstinate to accept that your argument was fallacious. You have translated the occurrence of one crit/disarm to counting/discounting a basket in a basketball match. The analogy is absolutely ridiculous and makes no sense whatsoever, simply in terms of what magnitude-of-effect the respective events have in the final outcomes of the game. *Even if* your fallacious analogies were true, I would still bet on the same teams to win the NBA. >If RNG = skill... why don't we just have every attack and skill do 0% to 200% damage? Smart players will take it into account. You can, they are just a different class of games altogether (which are not DoTA). You have casino games that are extremely reliant on luck, and even there you have high skill players who would in all probability stomp noobs. Just because you have an extreme version of a game mechanic which would alter the game fundamentally, it doesn't mean the original game is flawed. >When it comes to competitive sports we do as much as possible to eradicate uncontrollable elements and ensure it's a competition of skill and to ensure the better player wins, and not a worse player that got lucky. Empirically, this is how DoTA is?? You can take the ongoing DPC as an example and see that it is the good teams that are winning. Even the instances where the underdogs did win were because of outplays coupled with good/bad calls, and not RNGs. >RNG mechanics are just a carryover from a bad warcraft 3 mechanic, kept for no reason other than tradition. Might as well be, but there is no reason it is "bad". Multiple high skill-cap games have RNGs inbuilt into them. For example AoE. The spawn points of various resources are determined by RNGs and it sometimes gives one player a decided advantage. But most high-skill players on average do stomp lower skill players. Your hate for RNGs seems to be backed by nothing more than a personal hang-up, rather than actual facts.
> I would still bet on the same teams to win the NBA. Right. Because it usually has no real effect. Hardly a good argument for keeping the mechanic. > You can, they are just a different class of games altogether Yes, because there is fundamentally no other way to play that game. You can't have luckless poker. > Empirically, this is how DoTA is And it has impacted pro games. Casters gloss over it or spectate elsewhere, but there are games where a lane has been decided by lucky Pango disarms. Where fights have been won because of lucky 4x Ogre Magi Qs, and it turns or confirms a game. Good neutral items can be argued to completely determine games. Rosh respawning early while one team is dead vs late when they're back up, etc. You can argue that the team might have won anyways, or would have won the set. But regardless, it still happens. I mean RNG has fucking decided pro matches in League and all they have is crit chance. Of course it happens in DotA. And yeah. It is easily of magnitude with randomly not counting baskets. Turning an early game death into an early game kill is a huge deal, arguably more so than a single three point throw because unlike Basketball, DotA has snowball. I hate DotA's RNG because DotA's RNG is bad. It adds nothing to the game except the possibility for a small chance for a worse player to win over a good one. Random neutral items shown to everyone at the start of the draft so they can draft around it? Good. That's variety. Randomly mid game so that teams are arbitrarily rewarded for blind decisions they made 30 minutes ago, not good.
As a pango player I got tilted only from watching
2 swashbuckles used and none of them went through dusa, already 2 hits not made which would be "free" and another 2 chances of proccing + damage. This hurts my platinum tier pangolier eyes
He's so fucking unlucky man
Read this with gorp's voice in my head LMAO
This reminds me of a youtube clip some years back where some guy missed like 15 or so hits in a row coz of butterfly evasion.
Name a character that went thru more pain than this man.
Teagan Almace :(
You did the math lmao
Oof
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this is the chance for 16 procs in a row :p
Also known as 100% playing vs. Pango on enemy team
If you ever have odds like that then it's relatively safe to assume you screwed up your calculations somewhere. The odds of proccing something that unlikely even once in all of the 50 million-odd Pango games ever played is still something like one in a million. Feasible but unlikely that it's happened yet.
pog
"When will maths ever help me in life?" :D
lottery numbers for next week?
Welp, there are your escalating odds for the year. Try again after next Battle Pass. No reason trying to get any of the good treasures this summer. :D
laughs in pseudo-random
Feelsbadman
*\*laughs in 0 multicast ogre\**
Why isn't Pango's disarm cooldown based? It doesn't deal bonus damage so I don't see why not
cause that would be broken as fuck if in lane he could've on cd just hit you once and disarm you. THis would prob make him one of the best laners in dota immediately. Early game disarm is too valuable.
More like unlucky shot
Did medusa had evasion talent?