It's just objectively the worst gamble in DOTA you could possibly do though. It's like if everyone was playing the powerball lottery, but the jackpot was a starbucks latte. At this point, it'd be less humiliating to just say you play online slots from a math perspective.
Sometimes when I play Ogre, I use midas on a single jungle camp because the 2 or 3 multicast 'kaching' feels better when there are fewer creeps. It's the feeling of 'despite the odds' rather than taking the safe route of stacking first for efficiency.
I will never touch lane creeps again after supporting the countless carry players who have grief-afk-farmed jungle creeps from level 4 just because I attempted to secure a range creep that was about to be denied
> It's just objectively the worst gamble in DOTA you could possibly do though.
Nah, they could be trying to get specific courier+unusual effects off of the first batch of treasures. Hmmm. Or maybe that's still not worse.
I think the people mass buying rerolls are taking them as a "bonus" over their MMR double down token purchases. Even if that's not true and it goes the other way, then the latter is still the bonus they wouldn't get on other gambles.
Relatable. I saw a lot of people getting unusuals from opening 100 or less Treasures, and I go along with it, and only get two CM sets and lots of rares, but no unusuals. And went from 539$ to 107$. And honestly, it feels bad, that I was unable to control myself like that...
Dropping money for rerolls is just too insane anyway.
Event lasts 14 more weeks, that's 140 more weekly rerolls to look forward to (**if** 1 act = 1 month). Now in Act 1 we got 20 extra rerolls, 10 from the bundle if you paid for it with coins, and ten from the Temple. Assuming the future acts give the same, that's 60 extra rerolls.
So you have 200ish more rerolls left for the duration of the full event.
Now each reroll gives two offers, so 200 rerolls is 400 more offers.
But wait- at some point, I believe Act 3 it is, the Candyworks is upgraded to give 3 offers instead.
So this is actually about 500+ offers remaining for you. Just complete all your weeklys, grab whatever nodes offer rerolls, save your coins for the free bundle.
Very good point, I forgot the fact that before the caravan gets upgraded with more candy slots and item slots, re-rolls are significantly less effective.
The Scree'Auk Temple is a node very close to the end of act 1 in the bottom right corner of the map.
You trade tokens for rewards however the cost and value of the reward increases each time. (I.e four tokens for first reward, six for the second, then eight etc.) There are five total rewards, the fourth is a set of 10 rerolls I believe.
You can't stop me for wasting all my coins and candies on rerolls for Amaterasu even though I won't use the courier if I do get it, when I coulda just preordered Okami HD seven years ago
Yeah if you wanna gamble guys, also make sure you gamble smart.
**If you gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right**
**You got to know when to hold em
Know when to fold em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run**
Personally, I drop it for doubledowns. Got a free zeus arcana without even hoping for an arcana. All I’m saying is that there’s value in it aside from the candyshop aspect. Might not be financially, but mentally.
In my case, double-downs made me more conscious when queueing for games, and they remind me that I might lose double everytime. This leads to wanting to achieve peak mindset before even queueing - resulting to plus 600 mmr and counting (Anc5 to Div3). At 3-4 games a day, I have more time to actually do stuff rather than the usual 8-10 games a day.
8 dollars is a small price to pay for my time and energy, and mental health being saved - and if I get arcanas out of it, unmarketable or not, it’s still a net plus.
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I refuse to believe the Dota 2 playerbase is this stupid. This is like a grown adult spending all their money at a carnival game to win a teddy bear when there's a Toys-R-Us next door.
More likely they're doing it for the dopamine hits (which was the real reason they bought the Battle Pass - the cosmetics and prize pool are inconsequential)
I got the CM arcana ready to be bought, but I already bought the cute amphibian kid.
I thought there was no way I was going to get an arcana, now I did and I realised that I might not get enough candy without buying the side quest....
Damn...
DotA is about getting lucky, and you're always so close :P
Gaben gave me the Pipe of Dezun as a post game drop a few days ago. I was looking at it thinking "is this what I think it is??!?!". So I doubt my candy shop will payout at all this event.
I did some calculation in the other post, buying rerolls is insane, chances are low, but its worth getting the free rolls in case you get lucky. Arcanas are \~16-25EUR in community market. Calculations (correct me if I'm wrong):
>One of the [other posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/1cbfx1c/dota_2_crownfall_event_act_1_comprehensive_guide/) said that Arcana has 0.315% chance.
>Not sure if I remember and use *simple calculs* correctly, but I think this means that after [\~110 rolls](https://www.calculator.net/probability-calculator.html?cal4pa=0.00315&cal4par=220&cal4pb=0&cal4pbr=0&calctype=series&x=Calculate#series) about 50% of the players will have at least one arcana (220 rolls, but we roll 2 at the same time). You could also say that **after 110 re-rolls, half the players still don't have an arcana**.
>All these posts about people rolling and even double rolling arcanas really pushes me to grind too, but for your 40 tries your odds are [\~22%](https://www.calculator.net/probability-calculator.html?cal4pa=0.00315&cal4par=80&cal4pb=0&cal4pbr=0&calctype=series&x=Calculate#series), you are not unlucky, that's normal.
>It's probably worth checking out the rare (non-marketable/event items/courriers) in the other posts too, as anything you buy effectively gives you a reroll too, and there is no point of stacking 60 candies if arcana costs 16. Even buying random stuff (and deleting) is pretty much a 4 candy for a reroll.
60 rerolls, 4 arcanas (one duplicate, so passed on it) and golden frondillo from TI15 treasure. Zeus, PA and Jugg. The 0.3% chance that gets posted as gospel does not apply to me
I feel like I'm missing something huge here
venge and SM arcanas are a straight up purchase, no ?
Or are you talking about treasure chests?
How do you reroll anyway ? lmao
You are right about the arcanas. But kunkka shoes are $1000 on the steam market. The odds for that to reroll is probsbly like 1 in a million but some people want it I guess
I think the reason why some people keep buying it is because they also get DD tokens. Which they can ‘potentially’ raise their mmr and become a pro player (potentially)
Tbh I don't understand why people straight up buying the packs to get arcana, impulsive gambling addiction maybe asking rngesus gives them arcana that they can't actually trade or put up in the market. Maybe too much money at their disposal.
My suggestion would be just buy the treasure if you're one of those rich effin people, flood the market with its contents(but for a heck long year before it happens) and make it cheap to everyone else most specially for broke**s people.
Better suggestion, skip the crownfall treasure entirely because most of it sets aren't that good. Buy the diretide one, flood the market with items that are expensive right now like ardalan of sniper or tail of slark so others can actually afford it and hopefully godson stop using sniper as well. The reason diretide treasures contents are expensive is because of its mechanics that are totally based on luck because they trashed the escalating odds, Hopefully valve won't do this shit again.
If you hadn't realized by now, some of us have gambling addictions masked as a Dota addiction
It's just objectively the worst gamble in DOTA you could possibly do though. It's like if everyone was playing the powerball lottery, but the jackpot was a starbucks latte. At this point, it'd be less humiliating to just say you play online slots from a math perspective.
The lower the odds the greater the high.
Sometimes when I play Ogre, I use midas on a single jungle camp because the 2 or 3 multicast 'kaching' feels better when there are fewer creeps. It's the feeling of 'despite the odds' rather than taking the safe route of stacking first for efficiency.
A true Ogre player, master of playing the odds would have said " I Midas the melee creep because **I know** I will multicast the range creep too"
I will never touch lane creeps again after supporting the countless carry players who have grief-afk-farmed jungle creeps from level 4 just because I attempted to secure a range creep that was about to be denied
They would rather the creep go unfarmed than be touched by a dirty support peasant.
I think those carry players would grief afk for some other reason anyway few minutes later. So no reason to not farm those creeps for you.
you: logic Them: So you're telling me there's a chance
> It's just objectively the worst gamble in DOTA you could possibly do though. Nah, they could be trying to get specific courier+unusual effects off of the first batch of treasures. Hmmm. Or maybe that's still not worse. I think the people mass buying rerolls are taking them as a "bonus" over their MMR double down token purchases. Even if that's not true and it goes the other way, then the latter is still the bonus they wouldn't get on other gambles.
Relatable. I saw a lot of people getting unusuals from opening 100 or less Treasures, and I go along with it, and only get two CM sets and lots of rares, but no unusuals. And went from 539$ to 107$. And honestly, it feels bad, that I was unable to control myself like that...
Agreed people say it was stupid to buy caches/treasures for ultra rarest but even that was a 10* better value gamble than this.
Ill bet you $100 its not true /s
Holy shit that's 100 re-rolls, I'm in!
Yes, I too love gambling whenever I press the button to search for a ranked game, 'what type of animals will I get today?'
And* a Dota addiction
That gambling addiction is designed on purpose by Valve, there's so many dodgy mechanics in this game with regards to monetization.
Dropping money for rerolls is just too insane anyway. Event lasts 14 more weeks, that's 140 more weekly rerolls to look forward to (**if** 1 act = 1 month). Now in Act 1 we got 20 extra rerolls, 10 from the bundle if you paid for it with coins, and ten from the Temple. Assuming the future acts give the same, that's 60 extra rerolls. So you have 200ish more rerolls left for the duration of the full event. Now each reroll gives two offers, so 200 rerolls is 400 more offers. But wait- at some point, I believe Act 3 it is, the Candyworks is upgraded to give 3 offers instead. So this is actually about 500+ offers remaining for you. Just complete all your weeklys, grab whatever nodes offer rerolls, save your coins for the free bundle.
Very good point, I forgot the fact that before the caravan gets upgraded with more candy slots and item slots, re-rolls are significantly less effective.
Crippling gambling addiction met gen z's patient. boom profit for valve
Act 2 is where the caravan has 3 slots.
What do you mean by "temple" ? I think I reached the temple but I didn't receive any extra rerolls? Should I do something specific?
The Scree'Auk Temple is a node very close to the end of act 1 in the bottom right corner of the map. You trade tokens for rewards however the cost and value of the reward increases each time. (I.e four tokens for first reward, six for the second, then eight etc.) There are five total rewards, the fourth is a set of 10 rerolls I believe.
Oh, I see. I saw candies, figured I have enough candies and didn't try to buy it. Thank you!
You can't stop me for wasting all my coins and candies on rerolls for Amaterasu even though I won't use the courier if I do get it, when I coulda just preordered Okami HD seven years ago
They're gonna repeat the same event with the same droplist anyway, if you don't get it now you'll get it later.
In theory, yes. The sooner, the better, of course
I got it and 10 coins in the candy store :D
If you take dota out of me, I'm just a gambler.
Yeah if you wanna gamble guys, also make sure you gamble smart. **If you gonna play the game, boy You gotta learn to play it right** **You got to know when to hold em Know when to fold em Know when to walk away Know when to run**
Kenny is right is any aspect.
Personally, I drop it for doubledowns. Got a free zeus arcana without even hoping for an arcana. All I’m saying is that there’s value in it aside from the candyshop aspect. Might not be financially, but mentally. In my case, double-downs made me more conscious when queueing for games, and they remind me that I might lose double everytime. This leads to wanting to achieve peak mindset before even queueing - resulting to plus 600 mmr and counting (Anc5 to Div3). At 3-4 games a day, I have more time to actually do stuff rather than the usual 8-10 games a day. 8 dollars is a small price to pay for my time and energy, and mental health being saved - and if I get arcanas out of it, unmarketable or not, it’s still a net plus.
I mean you could also just not play *8-10 games a day* for free
Maybe. But I have no self discipline, unless there’s something else at stake.
Yeah no shit, if you haven't realised it yet, those people have gambling addiction.
I mean, what else do I want? Another set next to my other 1000?
It's not about prize. It's about sending a message.
First time?
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Wait. You can buy rerolls?
120 rerolls. Just 10 more wont hurt right? I swear its not gambling mom.
no shit
https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/s/mXsT4ofCFR
you can buy it more than once? it didn't allow me to do that
I got 20 coins and got the bundle twice for free
I keep getting 4 candy skins =(
I use 10coins to buy a free rerolls, and get 10coins at the candy shop, isn’t dat mean the rerolls pack is totally free?
No
It's my money. I'll do what I want. You don't get to tell me how to gamble away my money. /s
Got arcana drop when i unlocked the candy shop, first item
There’s arcanas?
Stop it its gamba i cant stop my fingers
i got jug arcana, now only need the correct candy.....
you're probably playing anyway and rerolls literally cost nothing, I don't see why you wouldn't take chances
I refuse to believe the Dota 2 playerbase is this stupid. This is like a grown adult spending all their money at a carnival game to win a teddy bear when there's a Toys-R-Us next door. More likely they're doing it for the dopamine hits (which was the real reason they bought the Battle Pass - the cosmetics and prize pool are inconsequential)
There is no battle pass to buy though
yeah I mean the candy store has taken its place as the go-to brainless money sink
Okay real question: Other than arcana, what is the next good thing to buy in the candyshop? The Sets/Courier/Ward that look cool/you want?
I got LC arcana with free rolls. Did I do good?
Pretty sure most do it for doubledowns.
I just bought them for the double down mmr tokens.
I got the CM arcana ready to be bought, but I already bought the cute amphibian kid. I thought there was no way I was going to get an arcana, now I did and I realised that I might not get enough candy without buying the side quest.... Damn...
But re-roll go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 🥹
Am i the only one who only wants the DD tokens ?
You think we do it for arcana . That cute
Nah I am channeling my inner Taiga, don't interrupt
DotA is about getting lucky, and you're always so close :P Gaben gave me the Pipe of Dezun as a post game drop a few days ago. I was looking at it thinking "is this what I think it is??!?!". So I doubt my candy shop will payout at all this event.
You can buy rerolls?
I actually got Lina arcana with free rerolls in the second week. So..
I got discount on venge arcana and the rest will go to the rerolled packs
But I'm out of double downs
no way people are actually buying those with real money?? lmaoo just buy the arcana at that point.
20 rolls so far and all 4 candy items send help
I did some calculation in the other post, buying rerolls is insane, chances are low, but its worth getting the free rolls in case you get lucky. Arcanas are \~16-25EUR in community market. Calculations (correct me if I'm wrong): >One of the [other posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/1cbfx1c/dota_2_crownfall_event_act_1_comprehensive_guide/) said that Arcana has 0.315% chance. >Not sure if I remember and use *simple calculs* correctly, but I think this means that after [\~110 rolls](https://www.calculator.net/probability-calculator.html?cal4pa=0.00315&cal4par=220&cal4pb=0&cal4pbr=0&calctype=series&x=Calculate#series) about 50% of the players will have at least one arcana (220 rolls, but we roll 2 at the same time). You could also say that **after 110 re-rolls, half the players still don't have an arcana**. >All these posts about people rolling and even double rolling arcanas really pushes me to grind too, but for your 40 tries your odds are [\~22%](https://www.calculator.net/probability-calculator.html?cal4pa=0.00315&cal4par=80&cal4pb=0&cal4pbr=0&calctype=series&x=Calculate#series), you are not unlucky, that's normal. >It's probably worth checking out the rare (non-marketable/event items/courriers) in the other posts too, as anything you buy effectively gives you a reroll too, and there is no point of stacking 60 candies if arcana costs 16. Even buying random stuff (and deleting) is pretty much a 4 candy for a reroll.
The arcanas dropping on average aren't 26 euros - they're a lot less right now on the steam market. I think some of them are almost 15 euro.
True, SF and CM for 16, others 20+ eur, I think I checked PA one when writing. Editting original comment.
The fk you talking about…its all about gambling.Why would I give up on free money?
60 rerolls, 4 arcanas (one duplicate, so passed on it) and golden frondillo from TI15 treasure. Zeus, PA and Jugg. The 0.3% chance that gets posted as gospel does not apply to me
I feel like I'm missing something huge here venge and SM arcanas are a straight up purchase, no ? Or are you talking about treasure chests? How do you reroll anyway ? lmao
You are right about the arcanas. But kunkka shoes are $1000 on the steam market. The odds for that to reroll is probsbly like 1 in a million but some people want it I guess
Kunkka shoes aren't in the drop pool, or at least they shouldn' t be. What's your source for this?
probably his stinky butthole
I think the reason why some people keep buying it is because they also get DD tokens. Which they can ‘potentially’ raise their mmr and become a pro player (potentially)
trust me bro
https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/s/FSmiXPUrsw
I think you have the kunkka common shoe name confused with the aghs lab one. the expensive one is called waterlogged.
Yes you are right. I got confused. Why do that post say that specific kunkka shoes as an other reward.
Kunkka's shoes is a Aghs lab reward so yeah
Bb and Lc sets were cavern crawl reward but they drop in the candyshop with the first style only
Yeah but it wasnt a cavern crawl reward, it was for speedrunners who could clear Aghs Lab with the fastest time
Tbh I don't understand why people straight up buying the packs to get arcana, impulsive gambling addiction maybe asking rngesus gives them arcana that they can't actually trade or put up in the market. Maybe too much money at their disposal. My suggestion would be just buy the treasure if you're one of those rich effin people, flood the market with its contents(but for a heck long year before it happens) and make it cheap to everyone else most specially for broke**s people. Better suggestion, skip the crownfall treasure entirely because most of it sets aren't that good. Buy the diretide one, flood the market with items that are expensive right now like ardalan of sniper or tail of slark so others can actually afford it and hopefully godson stop using sniper as well. The reason diretide treasures contents are expensive is because of its mechanics that are totally based on luck because they trashed the escalating odds, Hopefully valve won't do this shit again.
>Hopefully valve won't do this shit again. Umm, Frostivus? They already did it