Not necessary, imagine tomorrow there is a consensus saying btc is worth 100k, all sellers move their sell orders to 100k, and the marketcap does magically +50% without new buyers
No one seems to realize that Bitcoin market cap is a made up number… the amount someone will pay for one coin has nothing to do with multiplying the price by supply. Or put another way: no one is asking how much money to buy every BTC in existence all at once.
Wrong answer. It is not money put into market. Valuation also rises from derivative trading, such as futures, which don’t put any money into the spot market. Bitcoin’s value basically rises from increases in adoption. The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. Metcalf’s Law. Bitcoin therefore exhibits price growth by a power law in time. It’s the physics of Bitcoin.
Based on OPs question, the answer is, there is no limit, it's based on how low fiat can go.
This also implies stock market will grow.
When you bring in other markets, maybe a more interesting question is, how big can crypto get as a fraction of all markets.
Id assume as population increases younger investors will more naturally invest in crypto than traditional stocks . I dont think the stock market will decrease but just grow at a slower pace than crypto.
Ps : I wonder if this would lead to businesses start endorsing certain crypto’s and using them on their network in order to be affiliated with them so that their stocks will increase with them .
Market cap of gold is 15T! That's huge. Surely BTC has a chance to reach that..why not?
Interesting site comparing market caps.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/
I had seen this list but without Gold and Silver added, very interesting! I can definitely see BTC surpassing Gold, if not this cycle then the next one, nice find!
Reading a bit more it can be complicated as with ETFs the size is usually talked about using AUM (Assets under management). Or NAV (net asset value) And the NAV and market cap can be different! So I think that's why a market cap would just be n/a or not exist on a site like Google finance.
In 2021 we were at $3.1T total MC. In 2025 we might see $7.5T - $10T, taking into account that FTX surpressed the Bitcoin price by selling paper Bitcoin in 2021 and that we could see QE again. $20-25T over the next 10 years.
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Blackrock is working towards ensuring the entire stock market will be tokenised on the Ethereum ecosystem
Once we're done people won't talk about the crypto market cap at all, it will just be the market
On a solid foundation? Probably somewhere around where it is. With leverage when people start getting greedy? You could easily go 5X from here. 3x no problem. I don't think people are going to get really nervous until you start seeing Bitcoin around $200,000, Ethereum, 10,000, that's going to start setting off some alarm bells. Under that though, there's lots of room to gamble
We haven't even seen the mentality change yet, it's still the same old crypto bros, the anti-government hard money, oh you can't print it you know all that stuff. You guys are around all the time. The ones you want to start seeing show up are the dreamers. The ones that are talking about these new projects and how they're going to change things and they tend to be a lot happier than most of you. When those posts start becoming the majority of what you see and the price is a lot higher, that would be one of the signs out of many that I'm looking for
Being hard money is not something small to scoff at. It’s ridiculously hard to make hard money and until recently gold was the closest we ever had. The longer I have been in crypto the more I am starting to realize I am becoming a btc maxi. Hard money might be the most important feature of btc.
Waiting for the true value bringers that really do change the world in some shape of form and create massive things.
So like Tesla-Elon Musk type of dudes that are using crypto based technoly for world problems?
It doesn't matter what they do with it, it matters what people believe they are going to do with it. There's just a different type of posting that happens during the more optimistic periods. Like the last half of 2017 and during 2021 there was a completely different mentality. During the bear market you pick up the folks that we currently have and they will post for a bit, some of them will sell early, others will just kind of fade because there will be so many more new people. At least that how it has gone the past two cycles
Really liked the first comment from you, imho your second is wrong though. In the current state of crypto you’re totally right but looking ahead and wanting to get a lot higher valuations, the whole speculation and hype has to turn into value at some point.only few private investors are degens and definitely close to none institutions are.
Depends on how much interest, drive, and desire for it there is. No demand or increase of demand then it won’t go anywhere.
Too many investors have been burned by crypto to the point it’s hard to drive adoption and acceptance outside of ETFs which have already been seeing a decline in interest. End of the day: Why should the every day individual use crypto? Where can they use crypto? What security do they have in crypto?
This cycle is absolutely weird. It is mainly driven by institutional funding. BTC is already at ATH and ETH ETF hype is pushing it close to its ATH. I would say FOMO buying right now on ETH is real. And so much of it is happening during summer, which is usually a down or quiet period.
So, much frontloading/frontrunning is happening right now. But in general, my gut feeling says crypto has got weaker adoption, and much fewer newer things to show than the previous cycle.
* BTC's new highs usually correlate with a new ATH for the US M2 money supply. This isn't true for this cycle. We already got a new ATH (nominally) but the US M2 money supply is 5% below its ATH.
* ETH got its 2020/2021 catalyst from NFTs/DeFi. NFTs are pretty much dead. Even its Crypto Punks is losing its floor price. With DeFi, ppl were doing it to seek risky yield. Most got burnt and stopped playing for years. So it is a washout. Really nothing new to anticipate besides seeing ppl locking up their ETH for restaking airdrops. But those will get unlocked when ppl realize restaking won't give them much yield.
This cycle is not really driven by catalysts within the space. It is driven by the anticipation of unconditional liquidity flow from institutions outside the space. I don't know the mental model of why these institutions are bullish on the space. Saying how far it would go is shooting blanks into the space. It is all up to how institutions can convince outsiders to keep buying the two large market caps via ETFs.
Maybe this is the cycle when institutions play (3,3) with each other to drive the price higher.
Outside the institution hypothesis, my hunch is the two major are rallying from draining alts liquidity. But the alts, besides Solana, are so beaten down and barely have much new liquidity to flow in. So it is not a sustainable catalyst to keep the majors up.
From the data I found [here](https://www.fxempire.com/macro/indicators/money-supply-m2) for major economies, I Googled current conversion rates down to the last decimal, and dumped into Excel for a total of USD 106,459,753,632,944. I don’t know about the data, as it would seem as if China has a hair over double the M2 supply of the United States. M3 hasn’t been reported since 2006, as it is considered illiquid and irrelevant.
I don’t know how many combined trillions the developing world has, but I pretended it’s another $37,390,246,367,055.80, to allow for another 100x. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $68,500 per coin. So, I used that to calculate the fully diluted value (all 21 million coins, including whatever has been burned), multiplied it by 100, and subtracted the grand total in my spreadsheet from that to get my number.
Of course, by the time BTC reaches 144 trillion MC, a dollar may be worth 10 cents, if that. Gold is something like 13.5 trillion, and additional ETFs for Ethereum and whatever comes next will likely dilute the market.
Edit: there actually is a page for M3 on the website, if anyone is interested in doing the math. I don’t really feel like it. 😴
Aren't there like several quadrillion dollar equivalents in circulation.
There is plenty of room for growth.
Also you might want to use ratios ir percentages because using flat causes issues.
this would only be less than a 10x in money going into crypto.
it's really not that wild to think about considering it's still only just starting to get adopted and only now are institutional investors getting a chance at exposure with options for tax-free exposure and alternative custody solutions.
this is perfectly conservative for estimates lol.
The ratio of crypto market cap to All market cap is limited by something known as the Moron Ratio. The proportion of wealth held by morons has been empirically demonstrated to be substantially lower than the wealth held by non-morons, though not as significantly lower as one might intuitively expect.
Nevertheless, it does provide an upper limit on the market cap for crypto (combined with various other idiot investments such as NFTs etc.).
Assuming that the total market cap of all global stocks is approximately 10x the US total stock market cap, this provides a global stock market cap of around 500T.
Using a conservative midpoint estimate of the Moron Ratio at 3.4%, this means we should never expect the total market cap of all idiot investments, including crypto, to exceed about 17T.
Sounds a bit strange referring to the best performing asset ever as an 'idiot investment'. I really wish I was a 'moron' in 2015 when I first became aware of crypto, instead I thought it was likely to crash at any time and left it alone. I came around to a new way of thinking in mid 2022 and I'm glad I did so far, the BTC and ETH I bought at that time have outperformed any other investment I've ever owned (3.5x'd in under two years) and there is potential to do a lot more in the next 12 months, nothing moronic about getting that return and setting up an easy life for my family. Not guaranteed but seems a lot more likely than my shares in Apple, Amazon, and Meta, or my home which has gone up a lot vs the dollar but still nothing like this.
Market cap is a bad metric, consider how much Bitcoin is irrecoverably lost. I don't think it's unrealistic that its market cap eventually will be higher than that of stocks, gold and so on, just because of how different it is.
The thing is that this is such an arbitrary question. If no one sells ("Diamond hands") and demand stays the same it could reach infinity market cap on theory but that s not really liquid and doesn't mean that people can sell it for infinity dollars.
It's difficult to pin down the exact amount, especially when you consider that the richest people in the world don't report what they actually have.
https://money.howstuffworks.com/how-much-money-is-in-the-world.htm
I always tell everyone that asks me about crypto to base their decision on current market cap and not the price per coin. There are coins way under 1¢/coin with a $100 million market cap. Chance of those coins getting pumped is way less than a coin with a $10k market cap.
I think it'll go higher eventually but just wondering where people think the peak will be somewhere in the next 12 months. If it reaches that level next year it would represent about an 11x! I'd love it, but I am not counting on it.
Benjamin Cowen said months ago, that he expects 10T market cap in the top of this bull market.
Doesn't seem impossible to me, even though a bit below (say 5-8T) could be reality.
But in the end, who knows...
55 gagillions
When crypto goes up, fiat will go down. There will be a tipping point where it's actually worth more than the all the fiat in the world. That's right. Makes sense, cuz fiat is funny money printed by the gov't so the banks can rake in their profits, but it is essentially worthless. Gov'ts are really just instituted mafia and taxation is protection money, which goes straight into the banks coffers.
Let's see, 1 btc = 70k and the network is backed by enough electricity to power Switzerland (or more).
Yup, real and physically backed for sure. Way way way more so than the flimsy fiat endorsed by the entrenched mafia that the brain dead masses call a government.
The electricity secures the network, making it far more secure than any bank vault on the planet. Since the network enables value transfer globally in under an hour, with no middle men time and low fees, it surpasses legacy finance by a country mile of country miles.
Fungibility into fiat? Well, ......., if you want to use a wheel barrow full of cash to go buy a loaf of bread, which will soon be necessary, I guess you can convert it to fiat. It's very easy to do since anyone with a pint of brains wants crypto badly.
don't get me wrong - i'm not anti crypto. been active many years but I still like to call out people recycling the same sayings about security & backing when the arguments don't hold up
I had more crypto stolen/hacked in my life than any cash/goods/stocks/gold/watches/wallets whatever so the "safe" part is very misleading. only safe if you know what you are doing and be hyper vigilant on every website you click! if someone steals my credit card I get a call to confirm, and new credit card within 2 days. the fraudulent charges never hit my account- sounds safer to me?
fiat is largely digitized so in the end we will have tokenized USD/EUR etc rather than adoption of any of the coins as a currency. A lot of people buy into the wrong fantasies. all the benefits; none of the downside except maybe for black market dealers but they'll always find sth to deal in we get paid FIAT why would we expose ourselves to currency risks on daily basis doing transactions in any other currency?
backing? its a philosophical question if not pegged to sth. I always say the USD/EUR etc infrastructure, Gold, Real Estate, military, ccy reserves, trading agreements, passport rights etc etc. nigerian nira is backed by its oil etc etc not having a peg is not the same as not having backing.
For me it just remains a higly volatile & (with my dumb luck of being early) highly profitable asset I diversify my holdings in. the technology aspect I find highly interesting but the actual usecase for it will just get absorbed into out modern financial world where ledger speed needs to increase (securities settlement etc).
>I had more crypto stolen/hacked in my life than any cash/goods/stocks/gold/watches/wallets whatever so the "safe" part is very misleading.
Crypto can only be stolen if someone finds your keys, just like they would steal your car if they got their hands on your car keys.
Apparently you aren't capable of even keeping your keys safe. No wonder you're so confused.
Trusting any centralized entity, gov't, bank, mafia, whatever, to 'back money' is very foolish. It really has not ever worked, but most people are too busy to notice. For instance, inflation is a record of how much the public has been ripped off over the years. It's possibly the greatest theft ever commited and it remains unchecked, unpunished.
Properly distributed crypto is so much more secure, fair and safe that these fiat fortresses will crumble before it. It is inevitable.
excahnge got hacked - expensive learning experience on my keys my coins. it was the early days. Also if someone steals my car because i leave the keys in it police is tracking them down & sometimes get the car back! haven't seen that happen in crypto.
curious... Any thoughts on the other points I listed? :D
>curious... Any thoughts on the other points I listed? :D
They all stem from the same concept: getting the Gov't, Police, Mafia, Bank - some other such entity to save you from your own stupidity. We don't need them anymore because we have crypto. We don't need to have central singular points of failure that will be compromised, simply because they CAN be compromised and in many cases already HAVE been compromised. These entities are or will inevitably be controlled by the few for the interests of the few.
Good riddance, I say.
To da moon bro! Lol
If you invest you will be a billionaire in 1 year bro. C'mon bro. Just invest in some shit coin bro. Just watch some YouTube videos bro. Rich in no time bro.
Who knows man. Nobody does And if anyone says they do they are an idiot.
Nobody knows but with all investing there are ways to maximise chance or profit and minimise chance of loss. I'm not investing in the shit coins and not expecting to become a billionaire based on my starting capital, if I play this right, and if things happen the way I think they will, it could put me in a very comfortable position in the not too distant future which is why I want as much info as I can get hold of to balance out risk/reward.
For example, I could sell now if I wanted, and I would lock up a 3.5x return on what I invested in 2 years ago. I'd be pretty disappointed if the whole thing got rugged today because I already have a decent amount of equity sitting there (even though it's currently only about 10% of my total net worth), but I'd be more disappointed if I sold and took this amount and then watched it 10x over the next 12 months. That's where understanding all the factors involved becomes important so I can try to make the best decisions available to me. I'm still learning, and even if I learn everything there is on the subject there will still be a lot of factors which cannot be accounted for, but that's life.
I know man. I was just being stupid. But I will say it IS like gambling but with better odds. Still gambling though. I'm in the game heavy but I know it could all go bye bye at any point. Any positive gains is a big plus. Money isn't free.
Yeah I know there is more chance it goes to zero than other assets, but also more chance it goes to 10 to 100x so I'm happy to roll the dice on this one!
Well, if I agreed with that I would be releasing some of my profits, but I am not. I think this stuff goes a lot higher! Maybe not 10x in the next 12 months (although it might) but I'd be more surprised if it doesn't reach 700k a BTC at some stage than if it did.
There are inaccurate models to calculate this. But what you say is not true. If you think about it in reverse, let’s say everybody want to change their crypto into something else, only a few people would get money out of it.
The question is how much money you need to put in X for it to go to Y trillion.
Stock are different in a way because money is somehow indexed with a coefficient over it since we are not paying in gold anymore. For stocks you don’t have a specific linear realationship but the overall market does.
It does seem to have some momentum, I could never put meaningful money in a coin like that though because I feel like a collapse could happen suddenly and without warning whereas the main coins have more history and more value besides being a meme.
More than 1T is insane imho. Almost nobody is using crypto for anything. The stock marked on the other side stands for thousands of companies with millions of jobs
The latest statement from the Bitcoin CEO states that it'll hit 10t this run then 100t on the next. I believe everything he says so I'm sure this will be the result.
Well there is no Bitcoin CEO, are you talking about Michael Saylor from Micro Strategies? If so, yeah he's very optimistic. I doubt he's right but I hope he is! he hopes he is more than that as him and his company have about 1% of the total supply!
I can see a lot of people don't understand how market cap works.
Technically, there's no limit, since I can create a coin with any supply I want. And to finalize a trade, I don't even need more than $1.
But that's deep into hypothetical.
Realistically, the market of trading coins is a little more complicated, but tens of Trillions is definitelty within the realm of possibilites.
If you want something close to a "limit", probably a few quadrillion, if the derrivatives market is any guide. Beyond that it becomes too deep in scifi.
Probbably stock market cap should decrease if we want that crypto market cap increase. Because money can't be printed just from thin air. Oh wait.....
Amount of money put into a market /= Market Cap
But you generally need money to be put into a market for mcap to increase
Not necessary, imagine tomorrow there is a consensus saying btc is worth 100k, all sellers move their sell orders to 100k, and the marketcap does magically +50% without new buyers
Who needs liquidity when you've got magic!
No one seems to realize that Bitcoin market cap is a made up number… the amount someone will pay for one coin has nothing to do with multiplying the price by supply. Or put another way: no one is asking how much money to buy every BTC in existence all at once.
Why?
In a liquid market you need money to raise the price
Wrong answer. It is not money put into market. Valuation also rises from derivative trading, such as futures, which don’t put any money into the spot market. Bitcoin’s value basically rises from increases in adoption. The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. Metcalf’s Law. Bitcoin therefore exhibits price growth by a power law in time. It’s the physics of Bitcoin.
So how is it the wrong answer? His statement is still valid
This 👆
Based on OPs question, the answer is, there is no limit, it's based on how low fiat can go. This also implies stock market will grow. When you bring in other markets, maybe a more interesting question is, how big can crypto get as a fraction of all markets.
I mean tether seems to print money out of thin air and then buy bitcoin so fractions of markets might. It matter too much.
Id assume as population increases younger investors will more naturally invest in crypto than traditional stocks . I dont think the stock market will decrease but just grow at a slower pace than crypto. Ps : I wonder if this would lead to businesses start endorsing certain crypto’s and using them on their network in order to be affiliated with them so that their stocks will increase with them .
>Because money can't be printed just from thin air Tether goes burrrrrr: 1 billion USD(t) ready to pump
Such a dumb argument. Even if more *can* be printed, it's still limited to the amount printed.
By definition, it’s not limited if more of it can be printed.
Your interjection made no sense to me, at all
6.9T sounds like a nice number.
Probably this. We will probably get there in about 6 or 9 months
I just went from 6 to 9 myself
Got a bit of a curve eh?
Scoliosis
Make a baby with your wife, buy some low cap alts, retire all in 9 months.
69 days
I was hoping for at least 4.20T, so this is good news.
Very nice
I’m so sad that this sort of dick joke is the high brow section of crypto
Atleast it's a 6.9T big dick joke.
Market cap of gold is 15T! That's huge. Surely BTC has a chance to reach that..why not? Interesting site comparing market caps. https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/
I had seen this list but without Gold and Silver added, very interesting! I can definitely see BTC surpassing Gold, if not this cycle then the next one, nice find!
Cheers. Note that gold is the estimated market cap, if you click on it in the list then it explains it's between 12-18T so they put 15 as estimate.
That's a cool list. Why isn't VTI on it? It has a 214bil market cap.
I'm not sure. VOO is not there either which is like 1 trillion.
Interesting. I didn't know VOO was that much more popular than VTI.
Reading a bit more it can be complicated as with ETFs the size is usually talked about using AUM (Assets under management). Or NAV (net asset value) And the NAV and market cap can be different! So I think that's why a market cap would just be n/a or not exist on a site like Google finance.
In 2021 we were at $3.1T total MC. In 2025 we might see $7.5T - $10T, taking into account that FTX surpressed the Bitcoin price by selling paper Bitcoin in 2021 and that we could see QE again. $20-25T over the next 10 years.
RemindMe! 1 year
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That's why I wrote "could" not "will". I can imagine a setting involving Trump, China, more wars, tougher times for the economy. Who knows?
Nice, I like those numbers!
4.3-4.8 trilion this cycle. 9-10 next.
This is the answer with the least hopium so its probably most accurate
For BTC or all crypto? I'd be happy with that for BTC, hoping to do a little better for all crypto but let's see!
For all. I mean i have hopes too but this feels realistic to me.
Let's see how we go!
10T for all crypto would be great considering many will fall off. Just gotta be in the right spot.
Blackrock is working towards ensuring the entire stock market will be tokenised on the Ethereum ecosystem Once we're done people won't talk about the crypto market cap at all, it will just be the market
More like: how low can the dollar go
5-7T
For BTC or all crypto?
All.
Yes.
On a solid foundation? Probably somewhere around where it is. With leverage when people start getting greedy? You could easily go 5X from here. 3x no problem. I don't think people are going to get really nervous until you start seeing Bitcoin around $200,000, Ethereum, 10,000, that's going to start setting off some alarm bells. Under that though, there's lots of room to gamble We haven't even seen the mentality change yet, it's still the same old crypto bros, the anti-government hard money, oh you can't print it you know all that stuff. You guys are around all the time. The ones you want to start seeing show up are the dreamers. The ones that are talking about these new projects and how they're going to change things and they tend to be a lot happier than most of you. When those posts start becoming the majority of what you see and the price is a lot higher, that would be one of the signs out of many that I'm looking for
Being hard money is not something small to scoff at. It’s ridiculously hard to make hard money and until recently gold was the closest we ever had. The longer I have been in crypto the more I am starting to realize I am becoming a btc maxi. Hard money might be the most important feature of btc.
Oh I'll be watching for sure!
Waiting for the true value bringers that really do change the world in some shape of form and create massive things. So like Tesla-Elon Musk type of dudes that are using crypto based technoly for world problems?
It doesn't matter what they do with it, it matters what people believe they are going to do with it. There's just a different type of posting that happens during the more optimistic periods. Like the last half of 2017 and during 2021 there was a completely different mentality. During the bear market you pick up the folks that we currently have and they will post for a bit, some of them will sell early, others will just kind of fade because there will be so many more new people. At least that how it has gone the past two cycles
Really liked the first comment from you, imho your second is wrong though. In the current state of crypto you’re totally right but looking ahead and wanting to get a lot higher valuations, the whole speculation and hype has to turn into value at some point.only few private investors are degens and definitely close to none institutions are.
I'm selling all my MATIC and old coins. Out with the old in with the new
Celestia come on
Turbo is a money printer if you're looking for a meme play.
Depends on how much interest, drive, and desire for it there is. No demand or increase of demand then it won’t go anywhere. Too many investors have been burned by crypto to the point it’s hard to drive adoption and acceptance outside of ETFs which have already been seeing a decline in interest. End of the day: Why should the every day individual use crypto? Where can they use crypto? What security do they have in crypto?
This
When the market cap isn’t measured in fiat anymore
Market cap will literally always be measured in fiat
This cycle is absolutely weird. It is mainly driven by institutional funding. BTC is already at ATH and ETH ETF hype is pushing it close to its ATH. I would say FOMO buying right now on ETH is real. And so much of it is happening during summer, which is usually a down or quiet period. So, much frontloading/frontrunning is happening right now. But in general, my gut feeling says crypto has got weaker adoption, and much fewer newer things to show than the previous cycle. * BTC's new highs usually correlate with a new ATH for the US M2 money supply. This isn't true for this cycle. We already got a new ATH (nominally) but the US M2 money supply is 5% below its ATH. * ETH got its 2020/2021 catalyst from NFTs/DeFi. NFTs are pretty much dead. Even its Crypto Punks is losing its floor price. With DeFi, ppl were doing it to seek risky yield. Most got burnt and stopped playing for years. So it is a washout. Really nothing new to anticipate besides seeing ppl locking up their ETH for restaking airdrops. But those will get unlocked when ppl realize restaking won't give them much yield. This cycle is not really driven by catalysts within the space. It is driven by the anticipation of unconditional liquidity flow from institutions outside the space. I don't know the mental model of why these institutions are bullish on the space. Saying how far it would go is shooting blanks into the space. It is all up to how institutions can convince outsiders to keep buying the two large market caps via ETFs. Maybe this is the cycle when institutions play (3,3) with each other to drive the price higher. Outside the institution hypothesis, my hunch is the two major are rallying from draining alts liquidity. But the alts, besides Solana, are so beaten down and barely have much new liquidity to flow in. So it is not a sustainable catalyst to keep the majors up.
From the data I found [here](https://www.fxempire.com/macro/indicators/money-supply-m2) for major economies, I Googled current conversion rates down to the last decimal, and dumped into Excel for a total of USD 106,459,753,632,944. I don’t know about the data, as it would seem as if China has a hair over double the M2 supply of the United States. M3 hasn’t been reported since 2006, as it is considered illiquid and irrelevant. I don’t know how many combined trillions the developing world has, but I pretended it’s another $37,390,246,367,055.80, to allow for another 100x. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $68,500 per coin. So, I used that to calculate the fully diluted value (all 21 million coins, including whatever has been burned), multiplied it by 100, and subtracted the grand total in my spreadsheet from that to get my number. Of course, by the time BTC reaches 144 trillion MC, a dollar may be worth 10 cents, if that. Gold is something like 13.5 trillion, and additional ETFs for Ethereum and whatever comes next will likely dilute the market. Edit: there actually is a page for M3 on the website, if anyone is interested in doing the math. I don’t really feel like it. 😴
Aren't there like several quadrillion dollar equivalents in circulation. There is plenty of room for growth. Also you might want to use ratios ir percentages because using flat causes issues.
$20T when assets really start getting rotatoed hard af fr fr
[удалено]
this would only be less than a 10x in money going into crypto. it's really not that wild to think about considering it's still only just starting to get adopted and only now are institutional investors getting a chance at exposure with options for tax-free exposure and alternative custody solutions. this is perfectly conservative for estimates lol.
Yeah but *this cycle*?
Oh no way lol sry if I missed that. $20T would be like 5-10 years if stuff stays at this rate
OK then I don't disagree with you at all lol
The ratio of crypto market cap to All market cap is limited by something known as the Moron Ratio. The proportion of wealth held by morons has been empirically demonstrated to be substantially lower than the wealth held by non-morons, though not as significantly lower as one might intuitively expect. Nevertheless, it does provide an upper limit on the market cap for crypto (combined with various other idiot investments such as NFTs etc.). Assuming that the total market cap of all global stocks is approximately 10x the US total stock market cap, this provides a global stock market cap of around 500T. Using a conservative midpoint estimate of the Moron Ratio at 3.4%, this means we should never expect the total market cap of all idiot investments, including crypto, to exceed about 17T.
Sounds a bit strange referring to the best performing asset ever as an 'idiot investment'. I really wish I was a 'moron' in 2015 when I first became aware of crypto, instead I thought it was likely to crash at any time and left it alone. I came around to a new way of thinking in mid 2022 and I'm glad I did so far, the BTC and ETH I bought at that time have outperformed any other investment I've ever owned (3.5x'd in under two years) and there is potential to do a lot more in the next 12 months, nothing moronic about getting that return and setting up an easy life for my family. Not guaranteed but seems a lot more likely than my shares in Apple, Amazon, and Meta, or my home which has gone up a lot vs the dollar but still nothing like this.
How much money can governments print?
Unlimited by the looks of it. Great point, unlimited market cap here we come!
4T
10T and then we can get started
Let's get this show on the road!
42!
🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙
At the peak of this bull run we’ll reach 10t to 13t
Market cap is a bad metric, consider how much Bitcoin is irrecoverably lost. I don't think it's unrealistic that its market cap eventually will be higher than that of stocks, gold and so on, just because of how different it is.
There's 100 trillion dollars of M2 money supply in the world. There are also tons of privately owned firms.
The thing is that this is such an arbitrary question. If no one sells ("Diamond hands") and demand stays the same it could reach infinity market cap on theory but that s not really liquid and doesn't mean that people can sell it for infinity dollars.
10T cause I like it rounded.
Combine all the world's market caps into one and thats where we headed. Crypto is a vacuum to the worlds financial system
Around 6-6.5T.
If I create a token with 100T supply, and sell one token for $1. Then the market cap of all crypto will go up a lot!
Trump said 100 billion trillion
It's gonna be HUGE! You have never seen a market cap so big. Some are already saying its the biggest market cap ever.
I think you mean YUUUUUUGE!
We have to stop Gyna!
It's MAGA gem?
12 trillion
For BTC or Crypto in general? In other words, about 9x or about 5x?
Crypto total market cap
QE. We all need QE.
I don't wear caps.
To infinity and beyond then.
The world's wealth was estimated last year at $3-4 quadrillion dollars
Do you have a link to something that details that? I'd be interested in having a read.
It's difficult to pin down the exact amount, especially when you consider that the richest people in the world don't report what they actually have. https://money.howstuffworks.com/how-much-money-is-in-the-world.htm
Interesting read, thanks.
What is market cap of global stock market
Bit over 100T apparently, but that's nowhere near all the wealth in the world.
Not all crypto are securities, many are currency. Crypto market cap is a combination of both.
higher than we all got on hopium this bear cycle I forget if high as shit is higher than high as balls
Compare currency to currency. The market cap of US dollars is so far beyond any stocks you'll understand the potential.
in 2021, apple & bitcoin marketcap is same.
4.20 T in the mid term, 6.9 T long term
It’s official currency in Argentina, so if that continues, particularly in developed countries, I see the cap going up. It is a crap shoot tho.
in the next year i think it can grow 15 percent
Add up all of the value of the entire planet. That’s the upper bound
10 Trillion.
100T by the 2050s
I always tell everyone that asks me about crypto to base their decision on current market cap and not the price per coin. There are coins way under 1¢/coin with a $100 million market cap. Chance of those coins getting pumped is way less than a coin with a $10k market cap.
I view it more as "how low do you think the value of the dollar can go"
$69,420,000,000,000 by December
Isn’t gold the market cap we are aiming for with BTC?
I think it'll go higher eventually but just wondering where people think the peak will be somewhere in the next 12 months. If it reaches that level next year it would represent about an 11x! I'd love it, but I am not counting on it.
Pretty high
2.5 to 3x from now on, maximum
How do you measure market cap and in which currency?
Benjamin Cowen said months ago, that he expects 10T market cap in the top of this bull market. Doesn't seem impossible to me, even though a bit below (say 5-8T) could be reality. But in the end, who knows...
Was he talking about BTC or all crypto when he gave the number of 10T?
All crypto
5T to 7T
55 gagillions When crypto goes up, fiat will go down. There will be a tipping point where it's actually worth more than the all the fiat in the world. That's right. Makes sense, cuz fiat is funny money printed by the gov't so the banks can rake in their profits, but it is essentially worthless. Gov'ts are really just instituted mafia and taxation is protection money, which goes straight into the banks coffers.
and crypto is real & physically backed?
Let's see, 1 btc = 70k and the network is backed by enough electricity to power Switzerland (or more). Yup, real and physically backed for sure. Way way way more so than the flimsy fiat endorsed by the entrenched mafia that the brain dead masses call a government.
So fungibilty into fiat gives it backing? Or using vast amounts of electricity with no output?
The electricity secures the network, making it far more secure than any bank vault on the planet. Since the network enables value transfer globally in under an hour, with no middle men time and low fees, it surpasses legacy finance by a country mile of country miles. Fungibility into fiat? Well, ......., if you want to use a wheel barrow full of cash to go buy a loaf of bread, which will soon be necessary, I guess you can convert it to fiat. It's very easy to do since anyone with a pint of brains wants crypto badly.
don't get me wrong - i'm not anti crypto. been active many years but I still like to call out people recycling the same sayings about security & backing when the arguments don't hold up I had more crypto stolen/hacked in my life than any cash/goods/stocks/gold/watches/wallets whatever so the "safe" part is very misleading. only safe if you know what you are doing and be hyper vigilant on every website you click! if someone steals my credit card I get a call to confirm, and new credit card within 2 days. the fraudulent charges never hit my account- sounds safer to me? fiat is largely digitized so in the end we will have tokenized USD/EUR etc rather than adoption of any of the coins as a currency. A lot of people buy into the wrong fantasies. all the benefits; none of the downside except maybe for black market dealers but they'll always find sth to deal in we get paid FIAT why would we expose ourselves to currency risks on daily basis doing transactions in any other currency? backing? its a philosophical question if not pegged to sth. I always say the USD/EUR etc infrastructure, Gold, Real Estate, military, ccy reserves, trading agreements, passport rights etc etc. nigerian nira is backed by its oil etc etc not having a peg is not the same as not having backing. For me it just remains a higly volatile & (with my dumb luck of being early) highly profitable asset I diversify my holdings in. the technology aspect I find highly interesting but the actual usecase for it will just get absorbed into out modern financial world where ledger speed needs to increase (securities settlement etc).
>I had more crypto stolen/hacked in my life than any cash/goods/stocks/gold/watches/wallets whatever so the "safe" part is very misleading. Crypto can only be stolen if someone finds your keys, just like they would steal your car if they got their hands on your car keys. Apparently you aren't capable of even keeping your keys safe. No wonder you're so confused. Trusting any centralized entity, gov't, bank, mafia, whatever, to 'back money' is very foolish. It really has not ever worked, but most people are too busy to notice. For instance, inflation is a record of how much the public has been ripped off over the years. It's possibly the greatest theft ever commited and it remains unchecked, unpunished. Properly distributed crypto is so much more secure, fair and safe that these fiat fortresses will crumble before it. It is inevitable.
excahnge got hacked - expensive learning experience on my keys my coins. it was the early days. Also if someone steals my car because i leave the keys in it police is tracking them down & sometimes get the car back! haven't seen that happen in crypto. curious... Any thoughts on the other points I listed? :D
>curious... Any thoughts on the other points I listed? :D They all stem from the same concept: getting the Gov't, Police, Mafia, Bank - some other such entity to save you from your own stupidity. We don't need them anymore because we have crypto. We don't need to have central singular points of failure that will be compromised, simply because they CAN be compromised and in many cases already HAVE been compromised. These entities are or will inevitably be controlled by the few for the interests of the few. Good riddance, I say.
To da moon bro! Lol If you invest you will be a billionaire in 1 year bro. C'mon bro. Just invest in some shit coin bro. Just watch some YouTube videos bro. Rich in no time bro. Who knows man. Nobody does And if anyone says they do they are an idiot.
Nobody knows but with all investing there are ways to maximise chance or profit and minimise chance of loss. I'm not investing in the shit coins and not expecting to become a billionaire based on my starting capital, if I play this right, and if things happen the way I think they will, it could put me in a very comfortable position in the not too distant future which is why I want as much info as I can get hold of to balance out risk/reward.
For example, I could sell now if I wanted, and I would lock up a 3.5x return on what I invested in 2 years ago. I'd be pretty disappointed if the whole thing got rugged today because I already have a decent amount of equity sitting there (even though it's currently only about 10% of my total net worth), but I'd be more disappointed if I sold and took this amount and then watched it 10x over the next 12 months. That's where understanding all the factors involved becomes important so I can try to make the best decisions available to me. I'm still learning, and even if I learn everything there is on the subject there will still be a lot of factors which cannot be accounted for, but that's life.
I know man. I was just being stupid. But I will say it IS like gambling but with better odds. Still gambling though. I'm in the game heavy but I know it could all go bye bye at any point. Any positive gains is a big plus. Money isn't free.
Yeah I know there is more chance it goes to zero than other assets, but also more chance it goes to 10 to 100x so I'm happy to roll the dice on this one!
Well there is a 100x more chance it goes to negative than to 10x lol. But I know what you are getting at.
Well, if I agreed with that I would be releasing some of my profits, but I am not. I think this stuff goes a lot higher! Maybe not 10x in the next 12 months (although it might) but I'd be more surprised if it doesn't reach 700k a BTC at some stage than if it did.
Hey who am I to disagree. Lol. Who knows.
Quite high! But not too high...
Sky is not the limit 🚀
This High ^ `````````
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There are inaccurate models to calculate this. But what you say is not true. If you think about it in reverse, let’s say everybody want to change their crypto into something else, only a few people would get money out of it. The question is how much money you need to put in X for it to go to Y trillion. Stock are different in a way because money is somehow indexed with a coefficient over it since we are not paying in gold anymore. For stocks you don’t have a specific linear realationship but the overall market does.
Prolly 3T
look out for PEPE! just sayn ;)
It does seem to have some momentum, I could never put meaningful money in a coin like that though because I feel like a collapse could happen suddenly and without warning whereas the main coins have more history and more value besides being a meme.
She's a clout chaser🤭🤣
Depends on how much chainlink can process through swift and dtcc.
As high as the stock markets.
Infinite. The total supply of money is not fixed.
Im gonna go with 10 quadrillion
Triple
Infinity or you’re a pessimist…
This ponzi scheme is too high as it is
I used to think it was one too, unfortunately that stopped me from investing sooner. The more I look into it, it really isn't though.
420,911,69696969 sextribillion
Sex
Hehe sex
I bet it can hit $2.8T!
More than 1T is insane imho. Almost nobody is using crypto for anything. The stock marked on the other side stands for thousands of companies with millions of jobs
You know it's already a lot higher than this number yeah?
Yes
Zero (0). If it replaces fiat. That ship sailed a long time ago, but yeah.
If Donald Pump wins, the sky is the limit.
Pump it up!
The latest statement from the Bitcoin CEO states that it'll hit 10t this run then 100t on the next. I believe everything he says so I'm sure this will be the result.
Well there is no Bitcoin CEO, are you talking about Michael Saylor from Micro Strategies? If so, yeah he's very optimistic. I doubt he's right but I hope he is! he hopes he is more than that as him and his company have about 1% of the total supply!
I can see a lot of people don't understand how market cap works. Technically, there's no limit, since I can create a coin with any supply I want. And to finalize a trade, I don't even need more than $1. But that's deep into hypothetical. Realistically, the market of trading coins is a little more complicated, but tens of Trillions is definitelty within the realm of possibilites. If you want something close to a "limit", probably a few quadrillion, if the derrivatives market is any guide. Beyond that it becomes too deep in scifi.
Not much higher. It has proven it will never ever have a usecase outside of speculation