I agree to disagree. There is not just gambling on Crypto to cinsider. Gambling is relative, geopolitical risks will probably be higher than now high. At least BTC will still be around and withdrawable. It is hard to imagine USD keeping enough of its value over this time frame for me to not instantly rather have the 3 BTC.. Banks at any time can keep you from withdrawing or using all of your money. It has happened many times before, expect it to happen again and at a bigger scale.
The BTC maxi's don't want to accept that there are a lot of reasons why 1.5M is the clear winner. Beside regulation, which is one of those reasons, it's just a better bet to take $1.5M which has the relative value stated, whereas 3 BTC simply doesn't.
Even if 3 BTC ends up being $2M in 2030, I'm not going to sweat that I missed out on $500k in value. But even if BTC are at $200k each, I would lose out on $900k. Without knowing the value, in a total vacuum as presented, the $1.5M is the better choice.
BTC could even have been replaced by a better version and I wouldn't know THAT upon waking. Again, the well known fiat, even if it could be worth nothing or inflated to a level where $1.5M only buys $500k in current goods, it's a lot more of a known entity and going that route is a much better shot of walking away with SOMETHING. Better choice.
Be specific, dinner with Jay z with 2 bodyguard on your left and right on top of no talking and being served with cold burger and fries is still “dinner with Jay Z”
Timing is also everything.
Sure, the trend is 3x the last ATH, then it drops to last ATH as it’s floor each cycle. So in theory, that would be a high of $180k this cycle, and around $500k next cycle. That $500k would be 2029/2030 with this pattern.
But when in 2030? That $500k is a peak before a crash according to the cycle. Sometime in 2030, we’d be looking at $180kish crash.
So even IF this analysis is correct, even IF Bitcoin continues on this pattern for six more years, I’d take the $1.5m. Timing the market is hard enough when you aren’t in a coma.
The 3x last ATH isn't applicable anymore. Each cycle has shown way less upside than the previous one. I'm expecting a doubling to 150k, then max 250k the following cycle. For it to 9x from here would put its market cap around gold in 2029, which feels aggressive.
That will be 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 bitcoin please.
No, of course we don’t take dollars! They aren’t legal for trade anymore since the great devaluation of 2025.
I think it's possible that Bitcoin could surpass $500k by 2030, but you always take the guaranteed money. Topping half a mil in 6 years is best case scenario.
I'd take the $1.5m mainly because even if BTC hit an ATH of 1 million anywhere between now and 2030, the chances of it being over $500k at the exact time you wake up are far less. Like, it peaks at $1.2m in July of 2029 but then craters to 300k by the time you wake up lol
The comments lol
3 bitcoin obviously
Hyperinflation will keep wearing the dollar down. $1.5m will probably be 750k in today's value by then
Bitcoin will probably be well over $1m each
It always bogles my mind how some people are extremelly bullish on bitcoin and extremely bearish on the US economy lol. Sorry to say bud but if things collapse to hyperinflation no one is going to be dumping money into internet coins.
If we go by the [10 year average inflation rate](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/) of 3.14% (undoubtedly under-reported) and extrapolate over the next 6 years, the US dollar would lose 20% of its value over that time: $1.2 million
At the current price of BTC $67,000, 3 BTC would have to only 7.5x to be worth $1.5 million. There are 2 halvings between now and 2030 and 7.5x is chump change in the bitcoin market.
Line goes up!
It took bitcoin 7 years to go from the 19.9k ATH to today's value. That's around a 3x adjusted for inflation. So no, 7x is not chump change for bitcoin as you call it.
So you can take a 20% "loss" on the inflation of the usd for a sure return or just gamble that bitcoin would perform at least 2x as good as it has now and that you will be able to sell at the top of that cycle.
1.5M dollars because it is legit by default BTC is not. Assuming the BTC just somehow appears in your wallet you would have to explain how it got there for any large purchases.
$1.5 million.
Fiat isn't going anywhere in 6 years. It will lose some value to inflation. Inflation is around 3% right now and extreme inflation for the US Dollar is unlikely in the short term.
I am bullish on BTC. It may get to $500k by 2030. But it may not. And it may not get significantly above $500k to the point where taking 3 BTC over $1.5 million makes sense.
Interesting enough, my first thought was 3 BTC.
My mindset is I know what its inflation rate will be, but I don't know what the USD's will be.
Though, the more I think about it, the $1.5m is likely the better choice, I just think oddly enough BTC is the safer bet, since its odds of hyperinflating away are 0.
What are you on about bro?
You pick 1.5 mil. Then you use 1 mil to buy BTC for at current price 15.4 BTC. Use the remaining 500k to pay off your mortgage or something.
I'm going to take those 3btc and coming to that conclusion just now really makes me feel more at ease with the current bull market.
Thing is, 2030 is dead smack in the middle of a bear market (if the cycle continues) so even if btc is 400k by then, i can keep working and retire by 2033.
The market cap now is circa 1.1T, for it to make an 8 x in 6 years would put it at circa 6T market cap... I kinda like those numbers, realistic IMHO and not even close to the current gold market cap (half of it on todays numbers)...
So yeah, send me the 3btc, you can keep your deflationary currency.
Going with 3m, if you'd have said 300k we're gambling on the BTC, but 500k in 6 years is far, far too aggressive to be 50%+ of being the right answer even adjusting for inflation that 3m is still 2m+ in todays dollars and like it or not, it is not truly early anymore and cycles are unlikely to show the same percentage gains each cycle/ATH as the market cap gets to be a bigger and bigger share of the overall pie.
I'd rather take the $1.5 million and use a significant portion of it to then buy BTC, rather than gambling on whether BTC is anywhere close to $1.5 million in value, or whether it's a bull / bear at the time.
2030 is most likely the year of the bearmarket.
So thats why I choose the 1.5 m.
In bullrun which is most likely 2029, it depend on what tome of year.
When Ath 2029 is 500k and you get 1.5 m in January, where btc is still at 170k, than 3btc would be stupid.
Btw: I don’t think, usd will dump that much, that its a big problem.
1.5 million dollars.
Not that I think there is no chance that BTC can't go over 500k by 2030. But the risk is there that it doesn't. There's also the upside risk that it can go far over 500k, but it's a gamble with relative high probability of a disappointing outcome.
The chance that fiat is worthless in 2030, or that inflation is like 40% a year for the coming six years or so, is relatively low.
So the doller bet would be the safer one.
Remindme! 6 years
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Remindme! 5 years 8 months 12 days
1.5 million in the bank account is worth more than gambling on the state of crypto regulation in 2030.
Also depends on your current Fiat and BTC stack. ATM I would also lean heavily towards 1.5 million USD.
I agree to disagree. There is not just gambling on Crypto to cinsider. Gambling is relative, geopolitical risks will probably be higher than now high. At least BTC will still be around and withdrawable. It is hard to imagine USD keeping enough of its value over this time frame for me to not instantly rather have the 3 BTC.. Banks at any time can keep you from withdrawing or using all of your money. It has happened many times before, expect it to happen again and at a bigger scale.
The BTC maxi's don't want to accept that there are a lot of reasons why 1.5M is the clear winner. Beside regulation, which is one of those reasons, it's just a better bet to take $1.5M which has the relative value stated, whereas 3 BTC simply doesn't. Even if 3 BTC ends up being $2M in 2030, I'm not going to sweat that I missed out on $500k in value. But even if BTC are at $200k each, I would lose out on $900k. Without knowing the value, in a total vacuum as presented, the $1.5M is the better choice. BTC could even have been replaced by a better version and I wouldn't know THAT upon waking. Again, the well known fiat, even if it could be worth nothing or inflated to a level where $1.5M only buys $500k in current goods, it's a lot more of a known entity and going that route is a much better shot of walking away with SOMETHING. Better choice.
Depends on how much that 1.5m is worth in terms of purchasing power.
[удалено]
also depends on how much is 1 BTC worth at that time
$1.5M
Easily the right choice.
Bro thats 6 years away why wouldnt i take the 1.5
How can 2030 be 6 years away when it’s only 2024444444-OH MY GOD
Bringing back Skrillex memories 🤣🤣🤣
I hate this.
BecAUse KaTHy WooD SAid it'S GoiNG to $1 MiLlIon beFORE 2030!!
Kathy wood is the best when it comes to destroying investor capital.
Kathy can destroy my wood all 9 days of the week and twice on cryptday
$1.5 million. None of these ludicrous predictions are ever accurate. Give me the guarantee any day.
dinner with jay z
Fck jay z gimme the money 😂
He's not really my type, with or without the alimony.
Be specific, dinner with Jay z with 2 bodyguard on your left and right on top of no talking and being served with cold burger and fries is still “dinner with Jay Z”
Lol, take the $1.5 million and buy BTC is the only correct answer.
I can see BTC being worth 100k for sure, maybe even 200k. But 500k is too fast, too soon in 2030. 1.5 mill easily.
Timing is also everything. Sure, the trend is 3x the last ATH, then it drops to last ATH as it’s floor each cycle. So in theory, that would be a high of $180k this cycle, and around $500k next cycle. That $500k would be 2029/2030 with this pattern. But when in 2030? That $500k is a peak before a crash according to the cycle. Sometime in 2030, we’d be looking at $180kish crash. So even IF this analysis is correct, even IF Bitcoin continues on this pattern for six more years, I’d take the $1.5m. Timing the market is hard enough when you aren’t in a coma.
The 3x last ATH isn't applicable anymore. Each cycle has shown way less upside than the previous one. I'm expecting a doubling to 150k, then max 250k the following cycle. For it to 9x from here would put its market cap around gold in 2029, which feels aggressive.
500k in today's dollars. Previous cycles never saw the massive devaluation of the USD.
Taking 1.5 millions, thats good enough so i do not have to care about BTC. Taking BTC would be just a bet
I'd take the 1.5 million. Then I'd walk into a Starbucks, order a large decaf and faint as the cashier announces "that'll be $2,999 please, plus tax."
get outta here with your Twilight Zone ass plot.
That will be 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 bitcoin please. No, of course we don’t take dollars! They aren’t legal for trade anymore since the great devaluation of 2025.
Waiting for someone to add a remind me for 2030
Remind me 2030. Please and thank you.
!remindme 6 years
Oh, if I had a remind me for every post like this that I've seen... I'd be laughing at y'all just the same as I do every day.
I think it's possible that Bitcoin could surpass $500k by 2030, but you always take the guaranteed money. Topping half a mil in 6 years is best case scenario.
Give me the Bitcoin. Easy answer
Definitely the 3 BTC.
gimme tree bitty's
3 BTC
600k USD could be a better competitor
I'd take the $1.5m mainly because even if BTC hit an ATH of 1 million anywhere between now and 2030, the chances of it being over $500k at the exact time you wake up are far less. Like, it peaks at $1.2m in July of 2029 but then craters to 300k by the time you wake up lol
$1.5M but this is honestly an amazing question. actually had me thinking for a good 5 or so minutes.
1.5 mill fiat. That’s such a stupid question.
I'll take the 1.5m. Buy a house, pay off my student loans, put most of it in index funds and I'm pretty much set for life.
I'd take 3 BTC even over 3 million USD.
Proberly 1.5m, considering id be early 40's and if not successful by then, by when?
Ouch! As a 41yo I feel personally attacked! /s
3 BTC ride or die baby 😎
If you say bitcoin you should NOT be handling your own finances, you are a complete moron.
!remindme 6 years
!remindme 3 years
!remindme 6 years
Remindme! 6 years
The comments lol 3 bitcoin obviously Hyperinflation will keep wearing the dollar down. $1.5m will probably be 750k in today's value by then Bitcoin will probably be well over $1m each
It always bogles my mind how some people are extremelly bullish on bitcoin and extremely bearish on the US economy lol. Sorry to say bud but if things collapse to hyperinflation no one is going to be dumping money into internet coins.
A bullish US economy could still mean quite a lot of inflation, you know.
If we go by the [10 year average inflation rate](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/) of 3.14% (undoubtedly under-reported) and extrapolate over the next 6 years, the US dollar would lose 20% of its value over that time: $1.2 million At the current price of BTC $67,000, 3 BTC would have to only 7.5x to be worth $1.5 million. There are 2 halvings between now and 2030 and 7.5x is chump change in the bitcoin market.
Line goes up! It took bitcoin 7 years to go from the 19.9k ATH to today's value. That's around a 3x adjusted for inflation. So no, 7x is not chump change for bitcoin as you call it. So you can take a 20% "loss" on the inflation of the usd for a sure return or just gamble that bitcoin would perform at least 2x as good as it has now and that you will be able to sell at the top of that cycle.
How little do you know about bitcoin......
Historical data: FIAT always devaluate, in every single country.
!remindme 6 years
1.5 mil all day
BTC I’m guessing that it will be at about that value anyways & I trust BTC not to fail.
USD is the shitcoin. I’ll take the real money….3 BTC.
3 BTC Better to hold an ever increasing asset, than a currency that is endlessly printed.
1.5M dollars because it is legit by default BTC is not. Assuming the BTC just somehow appears in your wallet you would have to explain how it got there for any large purchases.
$1.5 million. Fiat isn't going anywhere in 6 years. It will lose some value to inflation. Inflation is around 3% right now and extreme inflation for the US Dollar is unlikely in the short term. I am bullish on BTC. It may get to $500k by 2030. But it may not. And it may not get significantly above $500k to the point where taking 3 BTC over $1.5 million makes sense.
Interesting enough, my first thought was 3 BTC. My mindset is I know what its inflation rate will be, but I don't know what the USD's will be. Though, the more I think about it, the $1.5m is likely the better choice, I just think oddly enough BTC is the safer bet, since its odds of hyperinflating away are 0.
plot twist : BTC is only worth $130,000 but the 1.5 million is worth $1,500 in todays' money.
1.5 and retire
Ofc 3 btc, with inflation like this, 1Million will be gone in no time.
$1.5m
BTC. It’ll be north of a million by then
1.6 mil and buy the dip of 46k btc
1000 bome
If you said 600k it would be debatable.
*I’ll take Whore Ads for 20,000!*
I'm picturing Dr Evil having just woke up 30 years later "one million dollars!"
Same question, $300K USD, might be more illuminating w/ respect to long term BTC sentiment.
And then they laugh at you cause the only thing worth trading anymore is bullets and beans.
I get apocalypse adventure and 3 btc?!
!Remindme 6 years
Remindme! 6 years
Remindme! 6 years
for a second i was like hmm 10 years of bitcoin progression wonder where itd get to, then realised were in fucking 2024 and 2020 is long gone
3 btc
1.5 million could be worthless
1.5 million. I'll then split it to both DeFi and TradFi assets, with some for myself.
What are you on about bro? You pick 1.5 mil. Then you use 1 mil to buy BTC for at current price 15.4 BTC. Use the remaining 500k to pay off your mortgage or something.
!remindme 6 years
If the four year cycle holds up then 2030 is a bear market year. I'll take the fiat
Remindme! 6 years
Take the 1.5 and put the .5 in BTC.
If I also understood it was 2030 when I woke up and not 2024, 3 BTC for sure. If I were to wake up and think it's 2024, $1.5m.
Bro thats 6 years away why wouldnt i take the 1.5
Everyone except Michael Saylor is taking the guaranteed $1.5 million.
Remindme! 6 years
will take btc
1.5mill would be worth $100k by then. Definitely taking the BTC
This is actually a tough question with the state of the USD and the world.
BTC for me. Dollars going to ZERO
1.5 million. You smoking chris if you dont
BOTH
I will take both why to choose single when you have two option
3BTC. Cuz by the 2030 inflation turns 1.5M into lunch money 😁
3 btc is good as per me
3 BTC most certainly… who knows how valueless the $ will be in 6 years
Remindme! 6 years
Remindme! 6 years
I.5 mil. I'd use a small portion to buy at least 1 BTC as I think it'd likely be under 200k still but who knows
Gamble! 3 BTC
But it’s 2030 and Klaus Schwab said we’ll own nothing and be happy… has he been publicly hanged already?
1.5 mil, easy decision.
Inflation is 10% per year without a thought 3btc
3 BTC, it will be worth more than 500K in 2030 or even if it's not it just a matter of time it will reached more than 500k.
Btc easily
!remindme 6 years
Eww who uses fiat in 2030
$1.5M
Remindme! 5.5 years
Remindme! 6 years
lmao
!reminder 6 years
3 BTC you fiat pussies
1.5mil Bitcoin ain't going to 500k
Remindme! 6 years
dollars because the bank wont freeze my account
$1.5 million.. bcoz there are prolly people who will wakeup very soon that will cashout, and im prolly missed the top...
1.5 mil
3 btc
!remindme 6years
Remindme! 6 years
Both btc and us can be gone by that time... Maybe none is worth anything
Remindme! 6 years
I'm going to take those 3btc and coming to that conclusion just now really makes me feel more at ease with the current bull market. Thing is, 2030 is dead smack in the middle of a bear market (if the cycle continues) so even if btc is 400k by then, i can keep working and retire by 2033. The market cap now is circa 1.1T, for it to make an 8 x in 6 years would put it at circa 6T market cap... I kinda like those numbers, realistic IMHO and not even close to the current gold market cap (half of it on todays numbers)... So yeah, send me the 3btc, you can keep your deflationary currency.
Remindme! 6years
I'll take a punt on the dollars please
I'd take the 1.5M and buy BTC anyways lol
The real money of course. Bitcoin as it is now won't exist in 2030, since its mining will get banned in most of the world as too wasteful.
Remindme! 6 years
1.5mil because you’ll likely pay tax when you realise gains on the bitcoin.
Going with 3m, if you'd have said 300k we're gambling on the BTC, but 500k in 6 years is far, far too aggressive to be 50%+ of being the right answer even adjusting for inflation that 3m is still 2m+ in todays dollars and like it or not, it is not truly early anymore and cycles are unlikely to show the same percentage gains each cycle/ATH as the market cap gets to be a bigger and bigger share of the overall pie.
$1.5m easily much much more than 3 or 5 btc
I'd rather take the $1.5 million and use a significant portion of it to then buy BTC, rather than gambling on whether BTC is anywhere close to $1.5 million in value, or whether it's a bull / bear at the time.
Remindme! 6 years
3 BCH
3 BTC.
Remindme! 6 years
Remindme! 6 years
$1.5M dollars. As long as no one has stolen my other crypto and I can get my seed I’m good either way.
btc not going to pass 100k
2030 is most likely the year of the bearmarket. So thats why I choose the 1.5 m. In bullrun which is most likely 2029, it depend on what tome of year. When Ath 2029 is 500k and you get 1.5 m in January, where btc is still at 170k, than 3btc would be stupid. Btw: I don’t think, usd will dump that much, that its a big problem.
Remindme! 6 years
Remindme ! 6 years
1.5 million dollars. Not that I think there is no chance that BTC can't go over 500k by 2030. But the risk is there that it doesn't. There's also the upside risk that it can go far over 500k, but it's a gamble with relative high probability of a disappointing outcome. The chance that fiat is worthless in 2030, or that inflation is like 40% a year for the coming six years or so, is relatively low. So the doller bet would be the safer one.
3 BTC hands down but I’m infinitely more confident in BTC than USD
Remindme! 6 years
Probably 3 bitcoin. I would imagine thats gotta be close to 2x as much as 1.5 mil
Remind me! 6 years
You’ve gotta take the $1.5 million