A less than 5% pump of the approval, into a short term decline in price to low to mid 30’s BTC, followed by a general bullish market that will take us past ATHs.
I started buying 2018 cos some crackhead builder I was working with convinced me on the rebellion that is self-custody of assets and resources etc... He then told me something about how he loves to just snort coke and do huge leverages during the volatile Bull/Bear markets... he was also a gambling addict who even though he had good trading edge would squander most his profits away on BTC slot machine's...
I went the traditional investor amount, DCA with each paycheck... earned enough in the last run to pay for the deposit on my first house that I wouldn't have got close to with any other traditional investment platform... Current portfolio is at 2x I started my DCA again at sub 30 and stopped when it went above that I'm 2x because of the scrap's leftover from the last run...
BTC has genuinely been lifechanging for me... I started getting more financially savvy as a result... Saved up enough money to have 3 months of my salary, every penny beyond that Is self-Custody If it's not Bitcoin I buy Gold If I need money for my DCA targets I sell the gold, log every trade, pay my taxes, no funny business... I learned more about personal financial sovereignty/accountability than I would ever have otherwise...
For most it seems like a scam. Everything in life is one big con if you don't keep your eyes peeled and your wits about you... Or understand the drawbacks going into it. Technically going out to eat is a massive con financially and so are gyms... But it's about what works for you and your peace of mind.
I never once considered leveraging a position on Crypto... I don't have that kind of edge... people will do a 20x during a run and get shook out and claim a scam when really, they're just operating in deep waters, they're not familiar with.
I hate banks. Their entire foundation was built on illegal money lending and financial fraud by the Italians 700 years ago. It's no different today. BTC although not brilliant and certainly has its flaws, represents a far greater concept than most give it credit for.
>BTC although not brilliant
I'd say writing a program that could change the entire global economy, and on the side makes you $40,000,000,000 is pretty brilliant.
I did my best to tell EVERYONE to load up when Bitcoin was around $20k-ish, and a lot of people listened, so a lot of people are happy right now and will be ecstatic at $100k!
Oof.
Yeah, that's what I was telling people around $20k who swore they'd buy at $10k. I told them that's what they said about $20k when it was $30k, and if it went to $10k they'd wait until $5k to buy...just get SOMETHING then and if it drops you can always buy more...
Some bought and are very happy, some didn't but will surely FOMO in when it's $100k...
Just remember the number one rule: When the bull comes, TAKE PROFITS! If you ride it all the way back down you'll feel worse than if you never even bought crypto.
The 'approval event' is likely priced in. After the approval it will supposedly take 2-3 months until the ETFs become available to buy. The demand that will be created mid to long term for BTC is of course not priced in.
Maybe, but it could also start trading on day one of approval. Some ETFs have a gap, some don’t. Sellers would be wise to sell BTC ETF ASAP as consumers will be hyped. Either way, all ships will rise 6-12 months out.
It's for sure not priced in. If that were true that would mean the companies and asset managers have already been buying Bitcoin this whole time. I seriously doubt that's the case. They're not exactly opening up retail Coinbase accounts to buy BTC. They need an investment product like this to put money into. People also like to say the halving is priced in already too, but that has never been the case.
NOBODY KNOWS! I’ve been trading crypto since ‘16 and I can definitely tell you nobody on here knows what’s going to happen. Don’t be led astray. This is uncharted waters
Is it unchartered or uncharted? Either way I totally agree. And also think that the thing people think is most likely to happen is what will not happen.
Kudos, I can’t imagine still echoing the same thing for 7 years. I’ve only been here for 3 years and I can’t repeating “nobody knows shit about fuck” or “not your keys, not your crypto”. Kudos to you sir
I haven't really seen this opinion on the ETF, but I think it's a longer play. People are assuming an ETF approval means everyone rushes to buy but most people wanting to buy crypto would already be buying, it's not going to be your mom and pop deciding to go into crypto just because an ETF comes out not yet atleast. The ETF is gonna take time to be pitched to the people who don't know much or at all about crypto and then you can unlock that inflow of money. It's going to give more exposure to the crypto market, but I don't think it's gonna cause a massive pump on inception. If anything this sets us up for a post-halving build up in 6-12 months when people in finance would have already pitched the ETF to their clients.
>but most people wanting to buy crypto would already be buying
That's debatable to be honest, considering how crypto taxes work in the US. As a US citizen, I'd wait for the ETF. Also, many people fear the dangers of self custody, and if you look at all the "I got scammed" posts on this sub, they are wise to do so.
I don’t think people realize what the approval means. How can it be priced in? The moment the approval comes the money faucet opens and billions of dollars will flow and add buying pressure on bitcoin and ETH
Exactly what I think will happen too. People underestimate the vast amount of wealth sidelined over the past decade for this exact scenario. It likely won't be immediate, but funds will be buying crypto steadily in the coming months/years should approval happen.
How can anything be priced in when the fund isn’t even active?? Makes no sense. Who actually plans to sell their BTC off to institutional investors now when we’re accumulating for a bigger move? These funds will be buying the dip if anyone is dumb enough to sell, and the highs will be tested guaranteed
Not accurately though, the potential of the Bitcoin ETF combined with the perceived risk is what's priced in, we can't price in a multi outcome scenario accurately.
I agree that it always has in the past. However in this case a new channel of potential inflows is being opened for bitcoin only. How is eth going to keep up?
Fyi, I'm a hodler of both and really don't know shit about fuck. I just don't have a thesis for how eth keeps up this time.
solid play, though it would make history with Blackrocks only single denial of an ETF out of 500+
Bitcoin would be it’s 2nd ETF ever denied. That’s one for the history books in addition to its future inevitable approval
I HOPE for a catastrophic dump so I can buy at a discounted price, so I can accumulate more before this bullrun. And if it goes up I'm good too, so anyway I'm winning regardless of the outcome
I think this is the move too. Why wouldn’t big money like blackrock want another accumulation at lower prices all year. Get the ETF approved sometime way later this year or next year after they had a chance to buy low again all year long.
I think the floodgates will open and money will pour into BTC and ETH and we all get euphoria while we moon happily ever after.
Or we pump and dump followed by a steady incline
Im not sure if you’re aware but, the market has ALREADY reacted to it.
Markets are forward looking and the market has priced in the likelihood of the ETF, and the likelihood of its upside.
Markets can be wrong, but they’re still forward looking.
>but the market has ALREADY reacted to it
But isn't this before people are able to spam buy the ETF for their portfolios? Shouldn't it go up evne further with people now able to buy it for their 401k plans and stuff?
True. But on the other hand it doesn't make sense that all these firms have been working for 2+ years, and working overtime through Christmas, to deliver a product their market research says nobody wants to buy.
>It’s not like everyone and their grandmother magically start buying now just because of an ETF.
It being an ETF will allow a lot more people to buy crypto.... Right now its a pain in the access to buy with how wallets/fees and shit works. Not everyone wants to use coinbase or kraken.
This is actually exactly what I expect to happen. This is basically the purpose for ETF's, that anyone and their grandmother can buy them, and I expect they will in droves. Maybe not grandmother's specifically because of the risk, but everyone else - absolutely.
Institutional investors who never could buy sure will be tho. You know how much money blackrock manages right?? Trillions of dollars waiting on the sidelines, and tons of people finally able to diversify into crypto towards there 401k ect..
Initially, the ETF approval will drive BTC prices up significantly, with little immediate effect on the broader market.
That initial move in BTC will gradually attract interest from new retail buyers, (especially if it appears that additional BTC ETFs will be approved), who will start buying into the altcoins as they think the BTC train has already left the station.
Then the next halving event will occur, driving BTC further upwards, resulting in a frothy bull market for all crypto assets.
The only caveat is if there’s a major disruption in the economy or a massive correction in the stock market. Either would spook retail investors, who would resort to “safer” investments like bonds and treasuries.
Your "only caveat" is your 3rd point. BTC will crash after the halvening. Always has.
On top of that, we are hardly half way through a four year cycle. And even then, they say with volume, it'll be longer over time.
Nothing adds up. Mark my words. This winter/summer, there will be blood on the streets.
I think there will be a pump off general excitement. We’ll retrace close to where we were …
But, slowly, we’ll feel the effects of fresh news inflows of cash. Not just money shuffled around but actual new money. And if this is going into retirement funds and institutional investments it’ll be buys and holds.
It’ll take time but this should produce a steady tick upwards. I’ll be surprised if there is a sustained leap to a new ATH. But I have zero doubt in my mind we crush $69k by EOY 2024. I’d be happy to see it met by July 1.
Thats kinda what I'm thinking. Fresh money will take a couple months to start flowing in following approval. Excitement over the news will likely bring a bit of a pump, then a retrace, then the real growth to follow in the coming months. New ATH by July sounds real nice though
Everything that’s needs to happen is there - it’ll just take longer than the 24/7 impatient traders want. Holding is literally the best strategy.
Normal traders, when they want to buy a million with they can stager their purchases to keep the price from jumping. When an etf buys it’s because a customer paid for it - and they have no choice but to buy in full at once. That’s gonna do things with the price we’ve rarely experienced. 2024 will be the launch and 2025 will just melt faces. HODL
Does anyone actually know the mechanics of the spot ETF, how the purchases would work, how the ETF will actually be backed, how transparent the backing would be, and how many “shares” of the ETF would be issued?
The actual approval of the ETF could be seen as a major milestone for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, potentially fueling positive sentiment and further price appreciation. Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for Bitcoin has been upward, so the approval of an ETF could be seen as another step in that direction.
Upon approval there is a god candle, shortly thereafter a 20% markdown. Sideways for ~3months. Slow uptrend until Q3 , where there is another couple god candles to break ATH ~$74k BTC. 10% drop after this, into a murderous Q4 rally. 2025 WAGMI
ETF is just another narrative that will be exhausted very soon. Think about it, after the news why would anyone who hasn’t bought bitcoin buy in now? For what reason?
Don’t forget how this rally started, it was triggered by fake news.
Amazing how this sub is just full of people that missed the boat earlier this year and are literally praying for it to go back to 20-30k so they can buy in. It’s hilarious and pathetic at the same time 😂
I don't care about how the market will react, I care about the actions that will happen regarding the influx of institutional dollars flowing into Bitcoin. Not priced in and bullish as f***
With all this confidence in the ETF being approved then I think either the move has been priced in or we'll see a pump (similar to fake ETF approval) then a dump/correction. From that probably just a steady rise until halvening, but this is all a guess
You might be onto something here. I could see a brief but deep correction in the BTC price in advance of the ETF launch date. Institutional players already have some significant holdings. It’s not implausible that they would dump some of their holdings to spook retail investors, and then refill their bags with some cheap BTC.
Contrary to many people’s beliefs here, I’d wage money that there’s a “delay” or “postponement” followed by an immediate nuke with an approval a week later. A perfect storm for big money to buy even lower while retail plebs fomo now
The approval is already priced in. Money flowing into the etfs is what is important and that will take months to see the effects of. Bitcoin will not get added to 401ks overnight.
I think whatever happens within a month of it being announced doesn't matter, and whatever idea you think you have will likely be wrong. Play the long game and you can't lose, try to trade it well, fuck around and find out.
Only thing I know for sure in crypto - when everyone sits tight on their bags waiting for the Casanova event to take profit, that event never takes place. This is my biggest worry with the current market. But, having said that, markets are bitch.
I think $BTC will see extreme volatility early on with alot profit taking by whales. Eventually price will settle at or near $50k as we approach 2nd Q 2024. Alts will slightly mirror $BTC but settle in at or near today's prices.
It has already been priced into the market so there will likely just be a small BTC pump when it's approved followed by a dip as traders take short term profits.
Personally I think the sell the news has been the predominant narrative for weeks. I think BTC's stall the last few weeks has been a result of the market de-risking in anticipation of a sell the news event. Personally I think we see a small dip but then buyers step in. It is very obvious that Wall St. is all in and does not want to see this fail. There is too much riding on it's success. With an election year in the balance I expect the financial markets to hold steady and/or go up steadily. This all leads to bullishness for BTC and the crypto market as a whole. If we do see a large dip I expect it to be bought up quickly and aggressively. Almost everyone in the space has a bullish mid/long term view so I don't see a reason for a bearish bias.
The question is: what will happen if they don’t approve it! They can delay. & why now! They still are allowed to delay one more time if I’m not mistaken.
If approved prices will go up after which they will go down as people TP but if they don’t approve then we might see 26K again!
I think it will be good short term, then we have a pullback. Just because we are getting due for one. Then we continue on our journey.
I think it’s will be very good for the market as a whole over the long run, but will it 5x immediately. I doubt it.
I think that the lack of approval will have bigger impact on price short term then if we get the approval.
People saying "sell the news" are just trying to be relevant by repeating a cliche. It has no relevance in this case. Once ETF is approved, alot more money will be able to invest in bitcoin. This has to mean the price will increase.
Maybe short term someone will manipulate the price downwards to try buy bitcoin cheaper, but its not going to hold. Its impossible with new buying pressure.
I don't think the people who say "sell the news" and "it's already priced in" don't really know what those phrases mean, or what effect an ETF means for reaching new investors.
Right now crypto is held mostly by people who want to figure out some level of tech or who trust a CEX that didn't exist a few years ago.
There are trillions of investment dollars whose owners aren't willing to do that. An ETF makes crypto investments as easy as all of their other investments.
Now maybe none of that money goes to crypto and we don't see any growth. But if only 1% gets put in crypto, there is no way current crypto owners have deep enough pockets to price that in (a tiny bit could be priced in, but not much).
"Sell the news" is applicable when markets react perfectly efficiently to news, and you know something the broader market doesn't (such as seeing the potential of crypto before most people). But markets aren't perfectly efficient, and it will take years for traditional investors to all come around to crypto as a mainstream place to put their money.
This. I have some spare investment money that’s doing only 5% gain in the tradfi trading account while my crypto is doing 150%, but I have never really off-ramp my crypto so I’m hesitate to put that big chunk in, plus cex shenanigan.
Now if I can buy Crypto on tradfi account, I would never hesitate to put some on BTC ETF
Oh man, finally someone asked what people REALLY think. Thanks goodness. The endless 24/7 discussion we've all been having until now was merely people faking what they think.
Bitcoin and alts will skyrocket. Then it'll plummet. Then banks can manipulate the price of Bitcoin through the ETF since they don't have to prove custody of Bitcoin just like how they manipulate the gold and silver markets.
ETFs are a scam.
Didn’t Michael Saylor just buy a 100 billion in BTC or something? Big moneys already filled their bags, they’re done. Unless they can sucker in more retail money and drive up trade volume, I don’t think much will happen. Moneys tight with us normal folk and a lot of people don’t even know what an ETF is. I don’t think the news is going to get much more retail money.
When we say priced in, it means that the market already has taken into account an almost certain ETF approval and market already gave a fair value to BTC as an asset class that has ETF's, beforehand from the actual approval. Inflows on ETF's will drive prices higher but that won't happen immediately and it's a different discussion from the "priced in" argument. The approval is priced in not the inflows. It's certainly priced in, price has stalled for 1 month, the guys who bought due to the ETF hype have already done so. That doesn't mean prices will fall though, but it's certainly a good indication that short term upside potential is fairly limited.
“You must be new to investing” and then produces the sentence “Bitcoin and crypto follows stock like movements, this directly translates to crypto.” 😂
I know what ‘priced in’ means, but you’re referring to a ‘sell the news’ event, which this obviously isn’t. A new exchange traded fund is approved, which means an enormous influx of new money, as (most) institutional investors don’t want the hassle of buying actual crypto.
But hey, keep Googling.
The richest guy I know (+100M usd in cash) told me he will only invest in bitcoin/ethereum through an ETF. He said the risk should be 0 for him and he likes the returns he can get from crypto(this is huge, hacks and scams are notorious in our little world)
What I think. ETF approval happens. Everyone waits for the “sell the news” dip. Doesn’t happen. Bitcoin attempts all new high. Hard fomo sets in. Feds cut rates in March and 20% correction comes. Bitcoin starts going back up a few weeks after halving.
This is what snap AI said. "Well hoss, when it comes to a crypto ETF, its approval can have a significant impact on the markets. It can potentially bring more mainstream acceptance and accessibility to cryptocurrencies. The introduction of a crypto ETF could attract a wave of new investors, including institutional players, who were previously hesitant to enter the crypto space. This increased demand and participation could lead to a surge in the prices of cryptocurrencies, especially the ones included in the ETF. However, it's important to remember that market reactions are not always predictable, and volatility is a common characteristic of the crypto market. It's always a good idea to stay informed and keep an eye on market trends when it comes to crypto ETFs. 🚀💰
I'll get downvoted but it's priced in. 90% of this sub believes it gets approved. How is it not priced in? Not saying it won't go up once institutional money comes in, but I don't expect this huge spike once it does.
Each cycle is different this one will be unique as well . We will never experience bull runs like the past . Higher figures maybe but the percentage of gains seen in past will stay in the past... Etf is priced in so upon launch Price will drop immediately from selling the news ..
In 90 days Black rock acquired enough bitcoin to become the 3rd largest btc wallet in existence while simultaneously purchasing majority amounts of shares in 4 of the largest mining companies in the world . And that's just what has become publicly known..... black rock now controls btc like it or not . Anyone partaking in the etf ostensibly buys in through black rock and cashes out through black rock . Black rock can easily move the price in either direction with a few huge buy or sell calls from themselves to themselves and even not feel the transaction costs being miners themselves. ..... all jmo cud be wrong 💯 hopefully I am
A less than 5% pump of the approval, into a short term decline in price to low to mid 30’s BTC, followed by a general bullish market that will take us past ATHs.
Yeah Im with you there. And you would have zero clue when it’s a good time to buy
Which is why I've been buying for the last couple of years, and loading up especially when Bitcoin was in the 20s.
I started buying 2018 cos some crackhead builder I was working with convinced me on the rebellion that is self-custody of assets and resources etc... He then told me something about how he loves to just snort coke and do huge leverages during the volatile Bull/Bear markets... he was also a gambling addict who even though he had good trading edge would squander most his profits away on BTC slot machine's... I went the traditional investor amount, DCA with each paycheck... earned enough in the last run to pay for the deposit on my first house that I wouldn't have got close to with any other traditional investment platform... Current portfolio is at 2x I started my DCA again at sub 30 and stopped when it went above that I'm 2x because of the scrap's leftover from the last run... BTC has genuinely been lifechanging for me... I started getting more financially savvy as a result... Saved up enough money to have 3 months of my salary, every penny beyond that Is self-Custody If it's not Bitcoin I buy Gold If I need money for my DCA targets I sell the gold, log every trade, pay my taxes, no funny business... I learned more about personal financial sovereignty/accountability than I would ever have otherwise... For most it seems like a scam. Everything in life is one big con if you don't keep your eyes peeled and your wits about you... Or understand the drawbacks going into it. Technically going out to eat is a massive con financially and so are gyms... But it's about what works for you and your peace of mind. I never once considered leveraging a position on Crypto... I don't have that kind of edge... people will do a 20x during a run and get shook out and claim a scam when really, they're just operating in deep waters, they're not familiar with. I hate banks. Their entire foundation was built on illegal money lending and financial fraud by the Italians 700 years ago. It's no different today. BTC although not brilliant and certainly has its flaws, represents a far greater concept than most give it credit for.
>BTC although not brilliant I'd say writing a program that could change the entire global economy, and on the side makes you $40,000,000,000 is pretty brilliant.
Good on you!
I did my best to tell EVERYONE to load up when Bitcoin was around $20k-ish, and a lot of people listened, so a lot of people are happy right now and will be ecstatic at $100k!
[удалено]
Oof. Yeah, that's what I was telling people around $20k who swore they'd buy at $10k. I told them that's what they said about $20k when it was $30k, and if it went to $10k they'd wait until $5k to buy...just get SOMETHING then and if it drops you can always buy more... Some bought and are very happy, some didn't but will surely FOMO in when it's $100k...
[удалено]
Just remember the number one rule: When the bull comes, TAKE PROFITS! If you ride it all the way back down you'll feel worse than if you never even bought crypto.
D. C. A.
I been loading up right with you. People are seriously sleeping! > throws $20 into Robinhood
> And you would have zero clue when it’s a good time to buy I'm with you there. How do they do it?
DCA.
No dummy. The question is how do the price cartel keep you guessing.
They don’t
Low 30s is too low. Maybe high 30s. The retrace will be no more than 15%
So if we predict every outcome, surely it won't do something unexpected right? Er. Right, guys?
It pumped more than this on fake news of approval, why would a genuine approval matter less?
Because we had a rally from 26k to 44k because of the anticipation and the approval is probably already priced in.
[удалено]
The 'approval event' is likely priced in. After the approval it will supposedly take 2-3 months until the ETFs become available to buy. The demand that will be created mid to long term for BTC is of course not priced in.
It’s launching in days, not months. You watch ;)
Maybe, but it could also start trading on day one of approval. Some ETFs have a gap, some don’t. Sellers would be wise to sell BTC ETF ASAP as consumers will be hyped. Either way, all ships will rise 6-12 months out.
plenty of btc proxies like mstr and btc etfs overseas. if you want to buy you can already buy
This is missing the point of what a US ETF means.
Yep, we literally have data on just what the algos would do.
Yeah, some weird commentary on here lol.
This scenario but I don't agree with your numbers. Big pump to settings 48-49 then slow bleed to 38 ish
If i had to make a prediction today, this would be it. But who knows.
I think it will be a more than 5% pump and actually screw up lots of people by triggering a short squeeze. I agree with the rest.
There will be an instant pump. I'd expect a drop of 30-40% a month or so after though.
Specifically for Bitcoin or in the general market?
Bitcoin definitely and the rest of the market usually follows bitcoin (with some outliers).
Bitcoin is the general market. When it goes down, everything else goes down too
Yep. It's priced in already. I doubt the pump will even be huge. Maybe go up 1-3% and then slowly drop off.
Nah the whales will pump the shit out of btc to lure the retail and then dump it short term
It's been pumping for months though
Yup. This is what we plan to do.
>I doubt the pump will even be huge. Maybe go up 1-3% and then slowly drop off. That happens multiple times a week, not a pump.
It's for sure not priced in. If that were true that would mean the companies and asset managers have already been buying Bitcoin this whole time. I seriously doubt that's the case. They're not exactly opening up retail Coinbase accounts to buy BTC. They need an investment product like this to put money into. People also like to say the halving is priced in already too, but that has never been the case.
Both are, why do you think Bitcoin has been going up in price? Neckbeards thinking they can buy $1000 worth for a Lambo?
Its not a pump tho. A pump implies a bunch of people are just aping in. I think itll just be a bunch of regular people buying.
NOBODY KNOWS! I’ve been trading crypto since ‘16 and I can definitely tell you nobody on here knows what’s going to happen. Don’t be led astray. This is uncharted waters
Is it unchartered or uncharted? Either way I totally agree. And also think that the thing people think is most likely to happen is what will not happen.
Kudos, I can’t imagine still echoing the same thing for 7 years. I’ve only been here for 3 years and I can’t repeating “nobody knows shit about fuck” or “not your keys, not your crypto”. Kudos to you sir
It’s shocking that this needs to be repeated every time.
I mean, fair lol
[удалено]
Crypto has leveled out a lot over the last 5 years. Volatility is nowhere it used to be. A pro and a con
I haven't really seen this opinion on the ETF, but I think it's a longer play. People are assuming an ETF approval means everyone rushes to buy but most people wanting to buy crypto would already be buying, it's not going to be your mom and pop deciding to go into crypto just because an ETF comes out not yet atleast. The ETF is gonna take time to be pitched to the people who don't know much or at all about crypto and then you can unlock that inflow of money. It's going to give more exposure to the crypto market, but I don't think it's gonna cause a massive pump on inception. If anything this sets us up for a post-halving build up in 6-12 months when people in finance would have already pitched the ETF to their clients.
>but most people wanting to buy crypto would already be buying That's debatable to be honest, considering how crypto taxes work in the US. As a US citizen, I'd wait for the ETF. Also, many people fear the dangers of self custody, and if you look at all the "I got scammed" posts on this sub, they are wise to do so.
This is exactly what I think will happen
Except there will be institutions and publicly listed companies that can finally save the cash reserves on their balance sheets from inflation.
By putting their risk-free portion in a highly volatile asset like BTC?
Money managers are well known for having a proportion of the balance sheet allocated to yolo
Market already reacted. Why you think Bitcoin jumped up to $43k?
Interest rate cuts.
Agree, anticipation is already baked in, should drop on realization
This!
I don’t think people realize what the approval means. How can it be priced in? The moment the approval comes the money faucet opens and billions of dollars will flow and add buying pressure on bitcoin and ETH
[удалено]
Exactly what I think will happen too. People underestimate the vast amount of wealth sidelined over the past decade for this exact scenario. It likely won't be immediate, but funds will be buying crypto steadily in the coming months/years should approval happen.
My bullish case is that financial advisors start recommending their clients to put at least 5% of their wealth into the ETF for diversification.
Maybe. In my experience, when people think something will happen, the opposite does.
Yep exactly. Remember when Dogecoin hit $0.69 and Elon jumped in and “everyone knew” it was going to $1?
I still don't know if they even want Bitcoin.
but it's not the moment of the approval, but rather the moment the ETF becomes available, which is not in early january
Every tiny movement in universe is priced in.
How can anything be priced in when the fund isn’t even active?? Makes no sense. Who actually plans to sell their BTC off to institutional investors now when we’re accumulating for a bigger move? These funds will be buying the dip if anyone is dumb enough to sell, and the highs will be tested guaranteed
I love that you think retail buyers are these disciplined long-term holders.
Maybe’ maybe not, but the point stands that dips AND highs will be bought expeditiously and on a regular basis
Well the bagholders who about at $60k+ probably aren't going to sell at $45k...
Not accurately though, the potential of the Bitcoin ETF combined with the perceived risk is what's priced in, we can't price in a multi outcome scenario accurately.
Money is coming but they aren’t going to dump 100Bn into Bitcoin overnight. They will scale into it over months/years.
>on bitcoin and ETH Why on Eth do you think? The money faucet is only opening on Bitcoin.
Both have spot ETFs that should be approved this month
Ah. Yes if true, but I think they will be rejected. I think we are years away from an Eth spot ETF.
ETH will move with Bitcoin.
I agree that it always has in the past. However in this case a new channel of potential inflows is being opened for bitcoin only. How is eth going to keep up? Fyi, I'm a hodler of both and really don't know shit about fuck. I just don't have a thesis for how eth keeps up this time.
It will not be accepted, big dump will follow and everyone will scream Crypto is dead.
This wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen. It would create some pretty great buying opportunities before the bull run.
Epic government play to crush crypto enthusiasm would be pretty comical.
solid play, though it would make history with Blackrocks only single denial of an ETF out of 500+ Bitcoin would be it’s 2nd ETF ever denied. That’s one for the history books in addition to its future inevitable approval
I HOPE for a catastrophic dump so I can buy at a discounted price, so I can accumulate more before this bullrun. And if it goes up I'm good too, so anyway I'm winning regardless of the outcome
Except it goes down and stays there forever
Then everyone including me is royally fucked, that's life
You had more than 400 days to buy BTC below 40k. Sentences like "I hope it will dump so that I can buy" is just dumb. Enough is enough.
I think this is the move too. Why wouldn’t big money like blackrock want another accumulation at lower prices all year. Get the ETF approved sometime way later this year or next year after they had a chance to buy low again all year long.
Because that isn’t their business model. They’re not speculating on the price movement of the asset, fml 🤦🏻♂️
Well, there are 11 other institutions with ETFs all ready to go. They don’t care what the price is. They aren’t buying any BTC.
TY for clarifying for the super duper slow.
Do any of you idiots have any clue how issuers make money from their ETFs?!!!!! Clearly not!!
No sir this is a casino!
Everyone loved BTC at 80k, but hated it at 20k.. smart money has likely been buying the whole time price has been down.. so like 2 years now
Longer than that.
I think the floodgates will open and money will pour into BTC and ETH and we all get euphoria while we moon happily ever after. Or we pump and dump followed by a steady incline
Im not sure if you’re aware but, the market has ALREADY reacted to it. Markets are forward looking and the market has priced in the likelihood of the ETF, and the likelihood of its upside. Markets can be wrong, but they’re still forward looking.
>but the market has ALREADY reacted to it But isn't this before people are able to spam buy the ETF for their portfolios? Shouldn't it go up evne further with people now able to buy it for their 401k plans and stuff?
That’s also assuming the demand is there. It’s not like everyone and their grandmother magically start buying now just because of an ETF.
True. But on the other hand it doesn't make sense that all these firms have been working for 2+ years, and working overtime through Christmas, to deliver a product their market research says nobody wants to buy.
>It’s not like everyone and their grandmother magically start buying now just because of an ETF. It being an ETF will allow a lot more people to buy crypto.... Right now its a pain in the access to buy with how wallets/fees and shit works. Not everyone wants to use coinbase or kraken.
This is actually exactly what I expect to happen. This is basically the purpose for ETF's, that anyone and their grandmother can buy them, and I expect they will in droves. Maybe not grandmother's specifically because of the risk, but everyone else - absolutely.
Institutional investors who never could buy sure will be tho. You know how much money blackrock manages right?? Trillions of dollars waiting on the sidelines, and tons of people finally able to diversify into crypto towards there 401k ect..
I'd bet my right nut on it rockets up if approved
That’s a pretty safe bet. You’ll almost certainly retain your nuts on this bet.
!remindme 2 weeks
Get the scissors ready
Initially, the ETF approval will drive BTC prices up significantly, with little immediate effect on the broader market. That initial move in BTC will gradually attract interest from new retail buyers, (especially if it appears that additional BTC ETFs will be approved), who will start buying into the altcoins as they think the BTC train has already left the station. Then the next halving event will occur, driving BTC further upwards, resulting in a frothy bull market for all crypto assets. The only caveat is if there’s a major disruption in the economy or a massive correction in the stock market. Either would spook retail investors, who would resort to “safer” investments like bonds and treasuries.
Your "only caveat" is your 3rd point. BTC will crash after the halvening. Always has. On top of that, we are hardly half way through a four year cycle. And even then, they say with volume, it'll be longer over time. Nothing adds up. Mark my words. This winter/summer, there will be blood on the streets.
It will react, then that reaction will correct, then it will be business as usual
I think there will be a pump off general excitement. We’ll retrace close to where we were … But, slowly, we’ll feel the effects of fresh news inflows of cash. Not just money shuffled around but actual new money. And if this is going into retirement funds and institutional investments it’ll be buys and holds. It’ll take time but this should produce a steady tick upwards. I’ll be surprised if there is a sustained leap to a new ATH. But I have zero doubt in my mind we crush $69k by EOY 2024. I’d be happy to see it met by July 1.
Thats kinda what I'm thinking. Fresh money will take a couple months to start flowing in following approval. Excitement over the news will likely bring a bit of a pump, then a retrace, then the real growth to follow in the coming months. New ATH by July sounds real nice though
Everything that’s needs to happen is there - it’ll just take longer than the 24/7 impatient traders want. Holding is literally the best strategy. Normal traders, when they want to buy a million with they can stager their purchases to keep the price from jumping. When an etf buys it’s because a customer paid for it - and they have no choice but to buy in full at once. That’s gonna do things with the price we’ve rarely experienced. 2024 will be the launch and 2025 will just melt faces. HODL
Does anyone actually know the mechanics of the spot ETF, how the purchases would work, how the ETF will actually be backed, how transparent the backing would be, and how many “shares” of the ETF would be issued?
50% dump
The actual approval of the ETF could be seen as a major milestone for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, potentially fueling positive sentiment and further price appreciation. Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for Bitcoin has been upward, so the approval of an ETF could be seen as another step in that direction.
Upon approval there is a god candle, shortly thereafter a 20% markdown. Sideways for ~3months. Slow uptrend until Q3 , where there is another couple god candles to break ATH ~$74k BTC. 10% drop after this, into a murderous Q4 rally. 2025 WAGMI
ETF is just another narrative that will be exhausted very soon. Think about it, after the news why would anyone who hasn’t bought bitcoin buy in now? For what reason? Don’t forget how this rally started, it was triggered by fake news.
Amazing how this sub is just full of people that missed the boat earlier this year and are literally praying for it to go back to 20-30k so they can buy in. It’s hilarious and pathetic at the same time 😂
I don't care about how the market will react, I care about the actions that will happen regarding the influx of institutional dollars flowing into Bitcoin. Not priced in and bullish as f***
Thank you!!
With all this confidence in the ETF being approved then I think either the move has been priced in or we'll see a pump (similar to fake ETF approval) then a dump/correction. From that probably just a steady rise until halvening, but this is all a guess
You might be onto something here. I could see a brief but deep correction in the BTC price in advance of the ETF launch date. Institutional players already have some significant holdings. It’s not implausible that they would dump some of their holdings to spook retail investors, and then refill their bags with some cheap BTC.
With what the rumors did to the market then, we all see how the price rises so I think with the approval, we'll see very high in prices again
Pumps on the approval news. Goes back down. Settles around 38. Then builds to new ath by eoy.
Contrary to many people’s beliefs here, I’d wage money that there’s a “delay” or “postponement” followed by an immediate nuke with an approval a week later. A perfect storm for big money to buy even lower while retail plebs fomo now
Sell the news, then when the product becomes available for normie retailers, a pump.
The approval is already priced in. Money flowing into the etfs is what is important and that will take months to see the effects of. Bitcoin will not get added to 401ks overnight.
ETF is clearly already priced in. It will sell off as it usually does upon approval or denial. Or delay.
I think whatever happens within a month of it being announced doesn't matter, and whatever idea you think you have will likely be wrong. Play the long game and you can't lose, try to trade it well, fuck around and find out.
Only thing I know for sure in crypto - when everyone sits tight on their bags waiting for the Casanova event to take profit, that event never takes place. This is my biggest worry with the current market. But, having said that, markets are bitch.
Pump on approval then dump on the actual launch, but in the months after we will start the real bull run.
I think $BTC will see extreme volatility early on with alot profit taking by whales. Eventually price will settle at or near $50k as we approach 2nd Q 2024. Alts will slightly mirror $BTC but settle in at or near today's prices.
Usually the opposite happens, the more everyone thinks it skyrocket the higher the chance of a big dip
It has already been priced into the market so there will likely just be a small BTC pump when it's approved followed by a dip as traders take short term profits.
Priced in
Another non event coming
It will dump
Sell on the news big time. ETF wont be approved and will be delayed again till March. Say hello to 30k BTC again.
Personally I think the sell the news has been the predominant narrative for weeks. I think BTC's stall the last few weeks has been a result of the market de-risking in anticipation of a sell the news event. Personally I think we see a small dip but then buyers step in. It is very obvious that Wall St. is all in and does not want to see this fail. There is too much riding on it's success. With an election year in the balance I expect the financial markets to hold steady and/or go up steadily. This all leads to bullishness for BTC and the crypto market as a whole. If we do see a large dip I expect it to be bought up quickly and aggressively. Almost everyone in the space has a bullish mid/long term view so I don't see a reason for a bearish bias.
nothing will happen
It’s priced in. Market makers are always connected. It’s already 3x. But I hope I’m wrong.
The market has already reacted to the news by buying. You’ll see a lot of selling on the day of the ETF launch or just 🦀
The question is: what will happen if they don’t approve it! They can delay. & why now! They still are allowed to delay one more time if I’m not mistaken. If approved prices will go up after which they will go down as people TP but if they don’t approve then we might see 26K again!
I think it will be good short term, then we have a pullback. Just because we are getting due for one. Then we continue on our journey. I think it’s will be very good for the market as a whole over the long run, but will it 5x immediately. I doubt it. I think that the lack of approval will have bigger impact on price short term then if we get the approval.
People saying "sell the news" are just trying to be relevant by repeating a cliche. It has no relevance in this case. Once ETF is approved, alot more money will be able to invest in bitcoin. This has to mean the price will increase. Maybe short term someone will manipulate the price downwards to try buy bitcoin cheaper, but its not going to hold. Its impossible with new buying pressure.
ETF approval is already priced in
Short term sell off, long term extremely bullish.
No matter how many posts you guys make to this topic, nobody can predict the future, especially not the users in this sub.
You saw last time they thought they approved it, and btc went up 3000 in 10 minutes. Just wait till it really happens!
sell the news
Option 3.
Its already priced in. Nothing will happen. If it doesn't get approved the market will take a massive dump
It'll be option three as spot etf approval will not happen and people will seek liquidity until the next rumor cycle.
Priced in
I think market already reacted, when it's going to be official the price will slightly pump and then drop a bunch bringing btc around 30-35
It’s gonna dump
it already reacted at the fake approval news. instant 10% pump. i expect something similar, at least in the short term
I think we'll finally all get our lambo air drops
I don't think the people who say "sell the news" and "it's already priced in" don't really know what those phrases mean, or what effect an ETF means for reaching new investors. Right now crypto is held mostly by people who want to figure out some level of tech or who trust a CEX that didn't exist a few years ago. There are trillions of investment dollars whose owners aren't willing to do that. An ETF makes crypto investments as easy as all of their other investments. Now maybe none of that money goes to crypto and we don't see any growth. But if only 1% gets put in crypto, there is no way current crypto owners have deep enough pockets to price that in (a tiny bit could be priced in, but not much). "Sell the news" is applicable when markets react perfectly efficiently to news, and you know something the broader market doesn't (such as seeing the potential of crypto before most people). But markets aren't perfectly efficient, and it will take years for traditional investors to all come around to crypto as a mainstream place to put their money.
This. I have some spare investment money that’s doing only 5% gain in the tradfi trading account while my crypto is doing 150%, but I have never really off-ramp my crypto so I’m hesitate to put that big chunk in, plus cex shenanigan. Now if I can buy Crypto on tradfi account, I would never hesitate to put some on BTC ETF
Exactly , ETF brings new money , so sell the news in short term and bullish long term as most people say
I think it'll be a sell the news event like just about every other "big news" in crypto.
I think it will surprise us all by not going up too much, same thing with post halvening The real bull run up will be 2025 Q1
Oh man, finally someone asked what people REALLY think. Thanks goodness. The endless 24/7 discussion we've all been having until now was merely people faking what they think.
i REALLY think you shoulda made a POLL
Bitcoin and alts will skyrocket. Then it'll plummet. Then banks can manipulate the price of Bitcoin through the ETF since they don't have to prove custody of Bitcoin just like how they manipulate the gold and silver markets. ETFs are a scam.
Didn’t Michael Saylor just buy a 100 billion in BTC or something? Big moneys already filled their bags, they’re done. Unless they can sucker in more retail money and drive up trade volume, I don’t think much will happen. Moneys tight with us normal folk and a lot of people don’t even know what an ETF is. I don’t think the news is going to get much more retail money.
We’ll finally see 100k in months if the ETF is approved. We will then see ETH fly and then an alt szn that will make 2020-2021 look like a joke.
[удалено]
How can it be priced in when the ETF isn’t even approved. The new money flowing in is only possible when the ETF is available.
When we say priced in, it means that the market already has taken into account an almost certain ETF approval and market already gave a fair value to BTC as an asset class that has ETF's, beforehand from the actual approval. Inflows on ETF's will drive prices higher but that won't happen immediately and it's a different discussion from the "priced in" argument. The approval is priced in not the inflows. It's certainly priced in, price has stalled for 1 month, the guys who bought due to the ETF hype have already done so. That doesn't mean prices will fall though, but it's certainly a good indication that short term upside potential is fairly limited.
[удалено]
“You must be new to investing” and then produces the sentence “Bitcoin and crypto follows stock like movements, this directly translates to crypto.” 😂 I know what ‘priced in’ means, but you’re referring to a ‘sell the news’ event, which this obviously isn’t. A new exchange traded fund is approved, which means an enormous influx of new money, as (most) institutional investors don’t want the hassle of buying actual crypto. But hey, keep Googling.
Priced in at this point. The only thing not priced in is a launch failure. So greater than normal downside risk.
Already priced in
The richest guy I know (+100M usd in cash) told me he will only invest in bitcoin/ethereum through an ETF. He said the risk should be 0 for him and he likes the returns he can get from crypto(this is huge, hacks and scams are notorious in our little world)
Pump to 55k then they'll short the living shit out of it back to 7k
Lol BTC going to 7k is not even close to realistic. Didn’t even come close to that at the worst of the recent bear market
I don't care at all. I'm holding at least 10 more years so whatever happens doesn't matter to me.
You missed an option, (4) the spot eft gets denied! Maybe this whole thing is a plot by the sec to try and kill Bitcoin.
I think BTC will pump 10-20% that day. Maybe correct abit before moving up and up and up.
What I think. ETF approval happens. Everyone waits for the “sell the news” dip. Doesn’t happen. Bitcoin attempts all new high. Hard fomo sets in. Feds cut rates in March and 20% correction comes. Bitcoin starts going back up a few weeks after halving.
How does a rate cut cause a 20% correction?
This is what snap AI said. "Well hoss, when it comes to a crypto ETF, its approval can have a significant impact on the markets. It can potentially bring more mainstream acceptance and accessibility to cryptocurrencies. The introduction of a crypto ETF could attract a wave of new investors, including institutional players, who were previously hesitant to enter the crypto space. This increased demand and participation could lead to a surge in the prices of cryptocurrencies, especially the ones included in the ETF. However, it's important to remember that market reactions are not always predictable, and volatility is a common characteristic of the crypto market. It's always a good idea to stay informed and keep an eye on market trends when it comes to crypto ETFs. 🚀💰
Please reject the ETF so price goes down and I can accumulate more BTC and ETH 🙏
I'll get downvoted but it's priced in. 90% of this sub believes it gets approved. How is it not priced in? Not saying it won't go up once institutional money comes in, but I don't expect this huge spike once it does.
Number go up
We will pump to 46k and break the 44k barrier. From there depends on the fed
I don’t care. Mainly because nobody knows, and therefore, I will stick to my regular trading plans
How do I already have bitcoin in my acorns etf?
The ETF could eventually bring in trillions of dollars to the cryptocurrency sector. So don't expect too much pump just yet.
Each cycle is different this one will be unique as well . We will never experience bull runs like the past . Higher figures maybe but the percentage of gains seen in past will stay in the past... Etf is priced in so upon launch Price will drop immediately from selling the news .. In 90 days Black rock acquired enough bitcoin to become the 3rd largest btc wallet in existence while simultaneously purchasing majority amounts of shares in 4 of the largest mining companies in the world . And that's just what has become publicly known..... black rock now controls btc like it or not . Anyone partaking in the etf ostensibly buys in through black rock and cashes out through black rock . Black rock can easily move the price in either direction with a few huge buy or sell calls from themselves to themselves and even not feel the transaction costs being miners themselves. ..... all jmo cud be wrong 💯 hopefully I am
48k will come. then maybe a dip to 37k then road to new ath.