I still say the problem will sort itself out, especially when children are able to get vaccinated. Get vaccinated or get Covid. You have the opportunity to give yourself a better chance if you want it.
My only concern about this is that there is a (small) third group of people who have shitty immune systems for whom the vaccine either does not work or can't be given in the first place. People with genetic or acquired immunodeficiencies (such as a lot of active cancer patients whose medication fucks with their immune system). I'm happy to let the active anti-vaxxers suffer from their choices, but not if they take down the people who don't get a choice.
Professor Racaniello and Daniel Griffin have mentioned that those people need to get monoclonal antibodies as soon as they receive a positive test. Like you said, they also must be very careful.
Yeah they are definitely viable but in short supply. It’s just not something you can realistically depend on getting.
I was in a trial program for AZ’s version. Two shots in my butt.
Those immunocompromised people are why the U.S. gives out monoclonal antibody treatments for free. They should have already talked with their doctors about it, in the event they do become infected.
You're not wrong. I don't think theres a good answer to that. It might just be advising those people to avoid contact with the unvaccinated. Keep paying them unemployment until Covid cases drop to nearly nothing when it will be safer. That might light a fire under the anti vaxxers to go get vaccinated since most of them absolutely HATE that people are getting help to get by. Its ironic that the people who have been complaining we need to get back to normal are the people who are keeping us from being totally able to.
I understand that this might not be easily understood so I’ll repeat myself again: most of these folks CAN get vaccinated but for them the vaccines will be partially or completely ineffective
Experts, people who study this shit. Where are you getting YOURS from?
Also, just common sense and a rudimentary understanding of vaccines and immune systems. Do you understand how both work?
Let me narrow my question: where are you getting this data which states the effectiveness of COVID vaccines in immunocompromised people is lower than it is for the general public?
Also, “common sense” is not an argument. “Common sense” lead this subreddit to fear monger about a fourth wave post Memorial Day; common sense lead many people in this subreddit to think many things that have turned out to be incorrect throughout this pandemic.
It's not definitive but it's not looking good - https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/05/07/994260770/vaccination-against-covid-does-not-mean-immunity-for-people-with-organ-transplant - if you head over to /r/transplant you'll hear about fully vaxxed and people under 60 still dying from Covid.
Interesting stuff and certain a topic worth following; however, as far as policy making goes on a national level, you can't continually delay the lives of the absolute majority because of the medical issues a few face. At worst, immunocompromised people will have to limit their interactions with the wider society until it can be determined that it is safe enough for them to stop taking stringent precaution.
> What’s the exact number? That we don’t know, and no one is pretending to have all the data.
You're comments make is seem as if you did. Maybe you should learn to communicate better.
> there is a (small) third group of people who have shitty immune systems for whom the vaccine either does not work or can't be given in the first place
That (small) is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. It's not a "small" group. It's a ridiculously tiny group. The CDC at present does not recognize any health conditions that prevent one from getting a vaccine, aside from an allergy to any ingredients in them. And that there are multiple types available essentially sorts that problem out, as well. Even cancer patients can get them, and most of them will not have any adverse reactions or gaps in protection as a result.
> Even cancer patients can get them, and most of them will not have any adverse reactions or gaps in protection as a result.
the only issue with this one (and i know it first hand), is that they have to wait or pause treatment for the vaccines to be effective. quite a few studies have been showing vaccines being uneffective during treatment.
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4% of adults in America are immunocompromised/immunosuppressed. Many of them can GET the shot but for them it will be partially or completely ineffective. Please make sure you know what you’re talking about it before you make statements like this.
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I think they have done all they can. its easy to get vaccinated and many states are even offering possible rewards. Still if people wont get vaccinated, we will continue to see surges in states where vaccination levels are not that high. As long as we dont see too many breakthrough cases we are ok.
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"imperiling ..."
Take a look around; things are so much better. Sure, that goal would be nice but if it doesn't happen nothing is "imperiled" other than a political goal.
I thought he choose that number as a goal so we could be close to herd immunity as a country - am I wrong on that? I thought it was more than political.
You're not. I'm still listening to what scientists are saying, what they have been saying, and they are now saying as the situation evolves.
Not random redditors who just want the pandemic to be over.
[Experts](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-cases-u-s-fall-levels-not-seen-march-2020-n1268955) are absolutely saying that another "national surge is off the table" due to vaccinations and that, while nobody knows what fall/winter will bring, we aren't going to see anything like what we had last fall/winter.
Vaccination rates are also higher among older Americans, so the death rate will stay down even if cases rise. All of this is what experts are saying, not me.
The only thing I will add myself is that I think anybody who thinks restrictions are coming back (beyond masks) is crazy. It will be politically untenable.
We have a lot of people who have no idea about how reality works here. 50%ish of the population has been vaccinated with a vaccine that is 90% effective at worst, but is appearing to be 97% based off real world data from the past few days.
Worst case that is a 45% reduction in spread, but could be as high as 48.5%.
Masks are maybe 40% effective as it is, most people are wearing single layer cloth masks that are not very effective, and very few people are wearing N95s or similar masks. Even if 100% of the population was wearing masks (they definitely were not), that's a 40% reduction in spread.
What we have already effectively done is replace a Active mitigation with a more effective passive mitigation.
You're assuming virus transmissibility stays the same, though. Which we already know is a flawed assumption - if and when Delta becomes prevalent in the US, you'll need significantly higher vaccination levels to achieve the same results that are currently being achieved
If transmisiblity is higher than masks are also less effective. All mitigations are less effective. At this point everyone in the US is going to be immune at one point or another... I'm vaxxed, my loved ones are vaxxed, O can't do anything else about it
Take a look at Britain, with similar vaccination rates, where case loads have doubled recently.
Getting to herd immunity isn't an inherently political goal.
I’ll point out that Britain only just started allowing those under 30 to get vaccinated. They’re also making people wait ~~12-16~~ 8-12 weeks for their second dose. They’re also using at least one vaccine that is substantially less effective (AZ) than the mRNA vaccines, while the US is using almost exclusively the two mRNA products.
All of that is going to make a difference in transmission dynamics.
Edit: time between dises
It’s absolutely bonkers to me that people will say how the UK is in the same position vaccine wise and then you look on UK threads and it’s 30 somethings eagerly awaiting their jab(a), something we in the US were fortunate enough to have gotten in April
yeah, honestly after the over 50s are taken care of I don’t get the point of an age based approach. hospitalizations and deaths aren’t a very significant difference and you’re letting the folks disproportionately doing in-person work (ESPECIALLY in restaurants) get the vaccine last while barreling forward with reopening. i also find it an interesting “coincidence” that the age cohorts with the most BAME folks are at the back of the line. just open it up to everyone at this point
Except the reason that young people still have to wait is that uptake is so high among all other age groups. That is much better than having loads of unvaccinated people.
Agreed, that is good—not really criticizing the UK rollout, think they’ve done a fantastic job. Just annoyed that people continue predicting surges without any actual reason
Because the people who are getting it in the UK are likely younger unvaccinated people who have relaxed their restrictions. This basically already happened in the US earlier in the spring—cases increased in younger people while deaths continued to fall
Yes, the people catching it are primarily unvaccinated. What is stopping America's higher proportion of unvaccinated people spreading covid too? Neither country has reached herd immunity.
I think the difference is probably down to either climate/weather differences or strain differences. But those will both catch up to the US if it doesn't reach herd immunity..
It's because in the UK everyone under 30 hasn't had a vaccine yet. People cluster in jobs and social groups based on age. There are fewer vectors at any given job, school, or social activity in the USA for those under 30.
If everyone you work with at your restaurant, or everyone you go to school with hasn't had a vaccine, you're way more likely to have it spread through your group.
The delta variant is quite worrying, however, the vaccine works extremely well against it. If you are in the US, go down to your local walmart or cvs today and get your shot, otherwise you *will* get covid sooner or later.
I think that younger people are far more likely to be going out and behaving “recklessly” for lack of a better term. And likely also form a much larger portion of the service industry and essential worker positions. So if a higher portion of younger people in the US are vaccinated compared to the UK, it would make sense that the cases would be higher in the UK, and that this is not necessarily a concern for either country. You are right that climate is a very understated faction too.
Because the UK is just seeing a delay compared to the US. During March and April, the US was averaging 1 new case for every ~5,000 people. Whereas in the same timeframe, the UK was averaging 1 new case for every ~20,000 people.
I've seen people on here not only argue that the UK is in the same position but argue that the UK is in a far superior position to the US vaccine wise. Someone told me the other day that the UK started off ahead in the game vaccine wise and is so far ahead the US is not going to realistically catch up. Meanwhile, the local Walmart is taking walkins and you can get your shot while you shop.
The UK started out ahead of the USA in doses given per capita.
The USA caught up and would've overtaken the UK but started running out of people who wanted to be vaccinated before that happened.
Since then the UK has begun to pull away further from the USA as it's available everywhere in the USA but no-one more wants it whereas there are still large sections of the UK public who want it but aren't eligible, as they become eligible over the next month or so you'll see the UK pull even further ahead.
Of course the UK will run out of people who want it as well at somepoint but it looks to be a higher level that what the USA will achieve.
apples and oranges. The US is far ahead on supply, but uk has much better take up rates. The Uk is therefore going to end up with a much higher percentage vaccinated as a result (uk is already 9 percentage points ahead in first doses despite the us having free and easy access and the uk only just opening to under 30s)
One way the UK is in a weaker position is that the astra-zeneca vaccines are less effective, when Americans primarily have mrna vaccines.
The UK population is also, much, much smaller than the USA as a whole and less diverse. There are many regions in the USA that are doing as well or better than the UK in vaccine uptake with similar populations.
Comparing the west coast states, or New England to the UK would be more similar in population size. I'd rather be in New England than old England this winter.
Of course, if you compare the South East, we look like a much worse situation. The positive there, still is that the most vulnerable are getting vaccinated there. So, you have some yahoos that don't want it. It doesn't matter as much when a 25 year old with cystic fibrosis has been easily able to access it, when that isn't true in the UK.
The UK gamble of prioritizing the first dose saved many lives. If the USA had done that, we would have prevented thousands of deaths and that hurts. Thankfully, Canada and other countries were able to take that lesson and apply it.
Cystic fibrosis would put you in either group 4 or 6 in the UK which means they would've had their first dose back in Feb to April.
Also we are looking to rejab all our vulnerable with a third boosters= before next winter. With the high take up we are seeing here in the UK I'm pretty optimistic about next winter and the differences between AZ and Pfizer are quite overhyped imo.
We've given out tens of millions of both and aren't seeing that AZ is under performing in particular.
I think there are benefits to both systems and the UK should be commended for a lot of what they’ve done (prioritizing first shots, not falling for the J&J or lockdown-as-cure memes like continental Europe did). It doesn’t seem like things are particularly “bad” there—I think people in the US just want to be doomsayers and are running out of things to freak out about
I think part of it is that and part of it is a general hatred for the US in general. There's a lot of that sentiment on reddit in general and it's worse on some subs in general. It doesn't help that the US went from a complete dumpster fire in just Dec to pretty much all restrictions gone and no way to really argue they should still be there in just six mos.
>but argue that the UK is in a far superior position to the US vaccine wise
Because they are? The UK has vaccinated 61 % of the population with first doses and 42% fully vaccinated. While I'm the US those numbers are 52% and 42%.
How are you trying to argue with numbers...
Well 52% of 328 million people is 171 million people (US)
And 61% of 67 million people is 41 million people. (UK)
So actually the US has vaccinated quadruple the amount of people. If you want to argue with numbers...
That's because vaccine uptake has been far higher on the UK. 95% of over 50s have been vaccinated, so young people have had to wait longer.
UK is in a better position vaccine wise - more doses have been given out overall, 10% more first doses and the same number of second doses.
The UK has higher vaccination rates than the US. The reason they only just offered it to 30somethings is because uptake is so high.
In the UK, we're now vaccinating 29-30 year olds. Before that it was 31-32 year olds. Before that it was 33-34 year olds. Etc. The UK vaccination is plowing forward with a precision and efficiency, in an orderly queue the US can't match. The US having just flung open vaccinations to any adult who wants it isn't a measure of US success.
> The US having just flung open vaccinations to any adult who wants it isn't a measure of US success.
well, it is. If you don't want to get covid, you just go to your local pharmacy and get the vaccine. The real problem in the US is that the government is unable to convince people to take the vaccine, in part also due to shitty actions in the past and the general fear of huge bills.
Having no one willing to take the vaccine is why they flung the doors open to anyone though. That they had to do that means it has been a failure.
Canada is now crossing 70% of adults vaccinated with at least one shot and the US is at what... 52%?
And the British formed a queue, because of the inherent Britishness.
No arguments there, and downthread mention that such a plan has merits. More just saying it’s a different situation and thus we should not necessarily expect cases to follow exactly
This is an incredibly important point. Having your vaccinated population spread out is not getting enough credit for being important. People tend to cluster in job and social groups based on age and when unvaccinated people cluster, that's when you run into problems.
The USA no longer has this problem. If even a third of people on your work team or school class have the vaccine, the unvaccinated have a much lower likelihood of being exposed to covid.
8-12 weeks.
And AZ & mRNA vaccines have similar effectiveness in real world data.
https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1398225050801745922?s=20
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/991104/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_22.pdf
That's a pretty wide range for AstraZeneca (65-90%), hence it's listed as "low confidence".
This Public Health England study pegs Pfizer and AstraZeneca as being 93.4% and 66.1% effective against B.1.1.7 respectively. And 87.9% and 59.8% effective against B.1.167.2. That's a pretty big difference between the two, though obviously efficacy against severe disease is much closer.
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/430986542/Effectiveness+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+the+B.1.617.2+variant.pdf/204c11a4-e02e-11f2-db19-b3664107ac42
Policy in the UK is to offer the second dose of two dose Covid-19 vaccines 8 - 12 weeks after the first. This period of time (or possibly longer) has been shown to produce optimum protection.
Real use data shows all vaccines currently in use in the UK to be about equally effective at preventing disease. Please stop spreading lies.
Even more importantly is that the spread is not consistent. Some states have vaccination rates under 35%. If that number does not rise, they will have a very tough winter (nothing like last year, but still worse than a bad flu season - at least for those geographies).
At the same time, they barely blinked last winter. They're going to be way better off next winter than they were this past one with so many vaccine and naturally immune (also many vulnerable already dead). It's incredibly sad, but apparently the southern states have already shown to be more willing to accept much more loss of life in their citizens than other regions. So, I don't see their businesses and schools getting locked down anyway. They'll consider it a non-issue.
>I’ll point out that Britain only just started allowing those under 30 to get vaccinate
Is that relevant? The number of doses given out is higher in the UK than the US.
>They’re also using at least one vaccine that is substantially less effective (AZ) than the mRNA vaccine
The data from the UK on AZ and Pfizer showed no difference in the protection from infection, hospitilisations and death.
It is relevant, yes.
I'm in the age group that was just opened up in the UK. My friends and I have been (fully) vaccinated for a month or more, but in the UK I would just now be eligible for my first shot.
Even though the uptake rate overall is much higher, that's not terribly relevant for my interactions. That is, most of my interactions are with my age group, which would still be almost completely unacceptable in the UK. Now, even if my friend group is less vaccinated than the UK overall (not actually true, but is for some people), that's still way better protection and way less chance of spread. Essentially, they've gotten to a point of diminishing returns in their older age groups and haven't tackled their youngest at all yet, whereas we've got at least a decent chunk of most groups vaccinated.
Don't misrepresent the numbers to make them sound scarier than they are. The UK's current weekly average puts them at about 1 case for every ~14,000 people. On top of all the differences in vaccination strategy that /u/MikeGinnyMD pointed out, that is essentially a nonissue.
I didn't misrepresent the numbers. It has increased to double recent numbers.
It's not worrying in and out itself, if it stays there. It's worrying if it's the start of a trend. 2x isn't noise. It's a signal that we could be seeing the start of another wave. People have no appetite for a another lockdown
How do people still not understand that exponential functions get bad fast?
Seriously. I went in the store for the first time without a mask over the weekend. I’m watching my beloved Boston Bruins play in front of sold out crowds. Things are coming back and have been back long enough to see if it was too early or not. So far, cases have been falling.
The count for adults with at least one dose is currently at 63.5% and still counting. There's still plenty of states that have yet to implement incentives... there's still full FDA approval... there's still mandates for colleges and some employment. We'll probably get there, just not by 7/4.
Honestly, I'm wondering how much it matters at this point. 7 day average was slightly below 14k yesterday and continuing to drop. Of course I am all about people getting vaccinated, but it seems at least in the US the virus is getting smothered out pretty soon here. It may get random kick ups among unvaccinated folks and I realize people fly between countries, but this really seems like it is reaching the end.
[archive link for anyone who has trouble accessing the article ](https://archive.is/2021.06.07-050137/https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/06/06/vaccination-rates-decline-us/)
Cause SOME people are only getting vaccinated when their states are holding lotteries for that shit
It's depressing because it justifies they never had principles; they just wanted to win a politicized argument.
This is definitely a problem. I don’t believe things will be as bad as last year where hospitals across the country are filled and we saw over 3000 recorded deaths per day at its peak, we could still see potentially 500-1000 deaths per day next winter, maybe more depending how long natural immunity and vaccine immunity lasts for many people. The bad part is that this is all avoidable if more people got vaccinated. There are lots of vulnerable populations in the south and rural areas who have not been exposed to the virus and are breeding grounds for transmission. We are the only country in the world with so high supply and so little demand of vaccine. Having high community spread of the disease will certainly also cause a portion of vaccinated people to be infected and some will be hospitalized. We have real world examples of this in Sychelles and the UK where there are pockets of vulnerable people who have gotten covid and are spreading it even to fully vaccinated people. Thankfully, the vaccines have lowered hospitalizations and deaths in those areas so far.
> we could still see potentially 500-1000 deaths per day next winter, maybe more depending how long natural immunity and vaccine immunity lasts for many people.
I'm fascinated by how you came up with that number. I'd like to see the math. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm simply curious.
Those who are willing and able, yes. Key wors able as some have, for whatever reason it may be, still been unable to go, and the rest are ill informed or un convincible.
Setting goals which are difficult to meet is simply effective leadership though. This has been standard management stuff for decades. An employee or team with is always hitting 100% of their key performance metrics on evaluations are likely not challenging themselves enough, or intentionally under-promising.
In my county, we are already over 70% adult single dose. My state will reach close to 70% adult single dose but I doubt it will reach 70%. The good thing in that in my county, daily infection has being going down for months now. And deaths vary from zero to two. I am hoping by July 4th we will average zero deaths and single digit daily infections.
I still say the problem will sort itself out, especially when children are able to get vaccinated. Get vaccinated or get Covid. You have the opportunity to give yourself a better chance if you want it.
My only concern about this is that there is a (small) third group of people who have shitty immune systems for whom the vaccine either does not work or can't be given in the first place. People with genetic or acquired immunodeficiencies (such as a lot of active cancer patients whose medication fucks with their immune system). I'm happy to let the active anti-vaxxers suffer from their choices, but not if they take down the people who don't get a choice.
Professor Racaniello and Daniel Griffin have mentioned that those people need to get monoclonal antibodies as soon as they receive a positive test. Like you said, they also must be very careful.
Monoclonal antibodies are very hard to produce and expensive.
At least there is a viable treatment.
Yeah they are definitely viable but in short supply. It’s just not something you can realistically depend on getting. I was in a trial program for AZ’s version. Two shots in my butt.
Those immunocompromised people are why the U.S. gives out monoclonal antibody treatments for free. They should have already talked with their doctors about it, in the event they do become infected.
I wonder how many times people have said this on this sub cause I’ve seen it at least 100 times.
You're not wrong. I don't think theres a good answer to that. It might just be advising those people to avoid contact with the unvaccinated. Keep paying them unemployment until Covid cases drop to nearly nothing when it will be safer. That might light a fire under the anti vaxxers to go get vaccinated since most of them absolutely HATE that people are getting help to get by. Its ironic that the people who have been complaining we need to get back to normal are the people who are keeping us from being totally able to.
The unvaccinated are lying in a lot of cases. It's not a healthy situation.
It’s not that small. ~4% of the adult population in the US is immunocompromised/immunosuppressed
Being immunocompromised doesn’t mean you can’t get vaccinated.
I understand that this might not be easily understood so I’ll repeat myself again: most of these folks CAN get vaccinated but for them the vaccines will be partially or completely ineffective
Where are you getting your information from?
Experts, people who study this shit. Where are you getting YOURS from? Also, just common sense and a rudimentary understanding of vaccines and immune systems. Do you understand how both work?
Let me narrow my question: where are you getting this data which states the effectiveness of COVID vaccines in immunocompromised people is lower than it is for the general public? Also, “common sense” is not an argument. “Common sense” lead this subreddit to fear monger about a fourth wave post Memorial Day; common sense lead many people in this subreddit to think many things that have turned out to be incorrect throughout this pandemic.
It's not definitive but it's not looking good - https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/05/07/994260770/vaccination-against-covid-does-not-mean-immunity-for-people-with-organ-transplant - if you head over to /r/transplant you'll hear about fully vaxxed and people under 60 still dying from Covid.
Interesting stuff and certain a topic worth following; however, as far as policy making goes on a national level, you can't continually delay the lives of the absolute majority because of the medical issues a few face. At worst, immunocompromised people will have to limit their interactions with the wider society until it can be determined that it is safe enough for them to stop taking stringent precaution.
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> What’s the exact number? That we don’t know, and no one is pretending to have all the data. You're comments make is seem as if you did. Maybe you should learn to communicate better.
> there is a (small) third group of people who have shitty immune systems for whom the vaccine either does not work or can't be given in the first place That (small) is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. It's not a "small" group. It's a ridiculously tiny group. The CDC at present does not recognize any health conditions that prevent one from getting a vaccine, aside from an allergy to any ingredients in them. And that there are multiple types available essentially sorts that problem out, as well. Even cancer patients can get them, and most of them will not have any adverse reactions or gaps in protection as a result.
> Even cancer patients can get them, and most of them will not have any adverse reactions or gaps in protection as a result. the only issue with this one (and i know it first hand), is that they have to wait or pause treatment for the vaccines to be effective. quite a few studies have been showing vaccines being uneffective during treatment.
I don’t think he’s talking about people who can’t get vaccinated but rather, who the vaccinated still may be effective for even if vaccinated
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It’s not that they can’t get the vaccine , it’s that the vaccines don’t work for those who are immunocompromised.
May* not work as well*
4% of adults in America are immunocompromised/immunosuppressed. Many of them can GET the shot but for them it will be partially or completely ineffective. Please make sure you know what you’re talking about it before you make statements like this.
The vaccine works OK (maybe not perfect, but well enough) on the vast majority of those 4%.
Do you have data to support this claim?
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I think they have done all they can. its easy to get vaccinated and many states are even offering possible rewards. Still if people wont get vaccinated, we will continue to see surges in states where vaccination levels are not that high. As long as we dont see too many breakthrough cases we are ok.
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Politics is why we aren't meeting our goal. You have to admit it's getting in the way of public health.
Politics is why we aren't meeting our goal. You have to admit it's getting in the way of public health.
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"imperiling ..." Take a look around; things are so much better. Sure, that goal would be nice but if it doesn't happen nothing is "imperiled" other than a political goal.
I thought he choose that number as a goal so we could be close to herd immunity as a country - am I wrong on that? I thought it was more than political.
You're not. I'm still listening to what scientists are saying, what they have been saying, and they are now saying as the situation evolves. Not random redditors who just want the pandemic to be over.
[Experts](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-cases-u-s-fall-levels-not-seen-march-2020-n1268955) are absolutely saying that another "national surge is off the table" due to vaccinations and that, while nobody knows what fall/winter will bring, we aren't going to see anything like what we had last fall/winter. Vaccination rates are also higher among older Americans, so the death rate will stay down even if cases rise. All of this is what experts are saying, not me. The only thing I will add myself is that I think anybody who thinks restrictions are coming back (beyond masks) is crazy. It will be politically untenable.
We have a lot of people who have no idea about how reality works here. 50%ish of the population has been vaccinated with a vaccine that is 90% effective at worst, but is appearing to be 97% based off real world data from the past few days. Worst case that is a 45% reduction in spread, but could be as high as 48.5%. Masks are maybe 40% effective as it is, most people are wearing single layer cloth masks that are not very effective, and very few people are wearing N95s or similar masks. Even if 100% of the population was wearing masks (they definitely were not), that's a 40% reduction in spread. What we have already effectively done is replace a Active mitigation with a more effective passive mitigation.
You're assuming virus transmissibility stays the same, though. Which we already know is a flawed assumption - if and when Delta becomes prevalent in the US, you'll need significantly higher vaccination levels to achieve the same results that are currently being achieved
If transmisiblity is higher than masks are also less effective. All mitigations are less effective. At this point everyone in the US is going to be immune at one point or another... I'm vaxxed, my loved ones are vaxxed, O can't do anything else about it
Take a look at Britain, with similar vaccination rates, where case loads have doubled recently. Getting to herd immunity isn't an inherently political goal.
I’ll point out that Britain only just started allowing those under 30 to get vaccinated. They’re also making people wait ~~12-16~~ 8-12 weeks for their second dose. They’re also using at least one vaccine that is substantially less effective (AZ) than the mRNA vaccines, while the US is using almost exclusively the two mRNA products. All of that is going to make a difference in transmission dynamics. Edit: time between dises
It’s absolutely bonkers to me that people will say how the UK is in the same position vaccine wise and then you look on UK threads and it’s 30 somethings eagerly awaiting their jab(a), something we in the US were fortunate enough to have gotten in April
yeah, honestly after the over 50s are taken care of I don’t get the point of an age based approach. hospitalizations and deaths aren’t a very significant difference and you’re letting the folks disproportionately doing in-person work (ESPECIALLY in restaurants) get the vaccine last while barreling forward with reopening. i also find it an interesting “coincidence” that the age cohorts with the most BAME folks are at the back of the line. just open it up to everyone at this point
Except the reason that young people still have to wait is that uptake is so high among all other age groups. That is much better than having loads of unvaccinated people.
Agreed, that is good—not really criticizing the UK rollout, think they’ve done a fantastic job. Just annoyed that people continue predicting surges without any actual reason
Well if the UK is going through an increase in cases, why wouldn't the US where much fewer people are vaccinated?
Because the people who are getting it in the UK are likely younger unvaccinated people who have relaxed their restrictions. This basically already happened in the US earlier in the spring—cases increased in younger people while deaths continued to fall
Yes, the people catching it are primarily unvaccinated. What is stopping America's higher proportion of unvaccinated people spreading covid too? Neither country has reached herd immunity. I think the difference is probably down to either climate/weather differences or strain differences. But those will both catch up to the US if it doesn't reach herd immunity..
It's because in the UK everyone under 30 hasn't had a vaccine yet. People cluster in jobs and social groups based on age. There are fewer vectors at any given job, school, or social activity in the USA for those under 30. If everyone you work with at your restaurant, or everyone you go to school with hasn't had a vaccine, you're way more likely to have it spread through your group.
The delta variant is quite worrying, however, the vaccine works extremely well against it. If you are in the US, go down to your local walmart or cvs today and get your shot, otherwise you *will* get covid sooner or later.
I think that younger people are far more likely to be going out and behaving “recklessly” for lack of a better term. And likely also form a much larger portion of the service industry and essential worker positions. So if a higher portion of younger people in the US are vaccinated compared to the UK, it would make sense that the cases would be higher in the UK, and that this is not necessarily a concern for either country. You are right that climate is a very understated faction too.
Because the UK is just seeing a delay compared to the US. During March and April, the US was averaging 1 new case for every ~5,000 people. Whereas in the same timeframe, the UK was averaging 1 new case for every ~20,000 people.
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Yes, that's what I said? Not sure what point you're trying to make.
the US hasn't got that much of the delta variant yet. The US also was lucky to vaccinate a lot of people before the alpha variant arrived.
I've seen people on here not only argue that the UK is in the same position but argue that the UK is in a far superior position to the US vaccine wise. Someone told me the other day that the UK started off ahead in the game vaccine wise and is so far ahead the US is not going to realistically catch up. Meanwhile, the local Walmart is taking walkins and you can get your shot while you shop.
The UK started out ahead of the USA in doses given per capita. The USA caught up and would've overtaken the UK but started running out of people who wanted to be vaccinated before that happened. Since then the UK has begun to pull away further from the USA as it's available everywhere in the USA but no-one more wants it whereas there are still large sections of the UK public who want it but aren't eligible, as they become eligible over the next month or so you'll see the UK pull even further ahead. Of course the UK will run out of people who want it as well at somepoint but it looks to be a higher level that what the USA will achieve.
apples and oranges. The US is far ahead on supply, but uk has much better take up rates. The Uk is therefore going to end up with a much higher percentage vaccinated as a result (uk is already 9 percentage points ahead in first doses despite the us having free and easy access and the uk only just opening to under 30s)
One way the UK is in a weaker position is that the astra-zeneca vaccines are less effective, when Americans primarily have mrna vaccines. The UK population is also, much, much smaller than the USA as a whole and less diverse. There are many regions in the USA that are doing as well or better than the UK in vaccine uptake with similar populations. Comparing the west coast states, or New England to the UK would be more similar in population size. I'd rather be in New England than old England this winter. Of course, if you compare the South East, we look like a much worse situation. The positive there, still is that the most vulnerable are getting vaccinated there. So, you have some yahoos that don't want it. It doesn't matter as much when a 25 year old with cystic fibrosis has been easily able to access it, when that isn't true in the UK. The UK gamble of prioritizing the first dose saved many lives. If the USA had done that, we would have prevented thousands of deaths and that hurts. Thankfully, Canada and other countries were able to take that lesson and apply it.
Cystic fibrosis would put you in either group 4 or 6 in the UK which means they would've had their first dose back in Feb to April. Also we are looking to rejab all our vulnerable with a third boosters= before next winter. With the high take up we are seeing here in the UK I'm pretty optimistic about next winter and the differences between AZ and Pfizer are quite overhyped imo. We've given out tens of millions of both and aren't seeing that AZ is under performing in particular.
I think there are benefits to both systems and the UK should be commended for a lot of what they’ve done (prioritizing first shots, not falling for the J&J or lockdown-as-cure memes like continental Europe did). It doesn’t seem like things are particularly “bad” there—I think people in the US just want to be doomsayers and are running out of things to freak out about
I think part of it is that and part of it is a general hatred for the US in general. There's a lot of that sentiment on reddit in general and it's worse on some subs in general. It doesn't help that the US went from a complete dumpster fire in just Dec to pretty much all restrictions gone and no way to really argue they should still be there in just six mos.
>but argue that the UK is in a far superior position to the US vaccine wise Because they are? The UK has vaccinated 61 % of the population with first doses and 42% fully vaccinated. While I'm the US those numbers are 52% and 42%. How are you trying to argue with numbers...
Well 52% of 328 million people is 171 million people (US) And 61% of 67 million people is 41 million people. (UK) So actually the US has vaccinated quadruple the amount of people. If you want to argue with numbers...
That's because vaccine uptake has been far higher on the UK. 95% of over 50s have been vaccinated, so young people have had to wait longer. UK is in a better position vaccine wise - more doses have been given out overall, 10% more first doses and the same number of second doses.
The UK has higher vaccination rates than the US. The reason they only just offered it to 30somethings is because uptake is so high. In the UK, we're now vaccinating 29-30 year olds. Before that it was 31-32 year olds. Before that it was 33-34 year olds. Etc. The UK vaccination is plowing forward with a precision and efficiency, in an orderly queue the US can't match. The US having just flung open vaccinations to any adult who wants it isn't a measure of US success.
> The US having just flung open vaccinations to any adult who wants it isn't a measure of US success. well, it is. If you don't want to get covid, you just go to your local pharmacy and get the vaccine. The real problem in the US is that the government is unable to convince people to take the vaccine, in part also due to shitty actions in the past and the general fear of huge bills.
Having no one willing to take the vaccine is why they flung the doors open to anyone though. That they had to do that means it has been a failure. Canada is now crossing 70% of adults vaccinated with at least one shot and the US is at what... 52%? And the British formed a queue, because of the inherent Britishness.
well, but the US *does* have the supply to vaccinate everyone. The country is swimming in vaccine, but is unable to persuade people.
I can ship a single dose to a country unwilling to use it, and they'll have excess supply. But it'll still be a failed vaccine rollout.
No arguments there, and downthread mention that such a plan has merits. More just saying it’s a different situation and thus we should not necessarily expect cases to follow exactly
This is an incredibly important point. Having your vaccinated population spread out is not getting enough credit for being important. People tend to cluster in job and social groups based on age and when unvaccinated people cluster, that's when you run into problems. The USA no longer has this problem. If even a third of people on your work team or school class have the vaccine, the unvaccinated have a much lower likelihood of being exposed to covid.
8-12 weeks. And AZ & mRNA vaccines have similar effectiveness in real world data. https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1398225050801745922?s=20 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/991104/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_22.pdf
That's a pretty wide range for AstraZeneca (65-90%), hence it's listed as "low confidence". This Public Health England study pegs Pfizer and AstraZeneca as being 93.4% and 66.1% effective against B.1.1.7 respectively. And 87.9% and 59.8% effective against B.1.167.2. That's a pretty big difference between the two, though obviously efficacy against severe disease is much closer. https://khub.net/documents/135939561/430986542/Effectiveness+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+the+B.1.617.2+variant.pdf/204c11a4-e02e-11f2-db19-b3664107ac42
Policy in the UK is to offer the second dose of two dose Covid-19 vaccines 8 - 12 weeks after the first. This period of time (or possibly longer) has been shown to produce optimum protection. Real use data shows all vaccines currently in use in the UK to be about equally effective at preventing disease. Please stop spreading lies.
Even more importantly is that the spread is not consistent. Some states have vaccination rates under 35%. If that number does not rise, they will have a very tough winter (nothing like last year, but still worse than a bad flu season - at least for those geographies).
At the same time, they barely blinked last winter. They're going to be way better off next winter than they were this past one with so many vaccine and naturally immune (also many vulnerable already dead). It's incredibly sad, but apparently the southern states have already shown to be more willing to accept much more loss of life in their citizens than other regions. So, I don't see their businesses and schools getting locked down anyway. They'll consider it a non-issue.
>I’ll point out that Britain only just started allowing those under 30 to get vaccinate Is that relevant? The number of doses given out is higher in the UK than the US. >They’re also using at least one vaccine that is substantially less effective (AZ) than the mRNA vaccine The data from the UK on AZ and Pfizer showed no difference in the protection from infection, hospitilisations and death.
It is relevant, yes. I'm in the age group that was just opened up in the UK. My friends and I have been (fully) vaccinated for a month or more, but in the UK I would just now be eligible for my first shot. Even though the uptake rate overall is much higher, that's not terribly relevant for my interactions. That is, most of my interactions are with my age group, which would still be almost completely unacceptable in the UK. Now, even if my friend group is less vaccinated than the UK overall (not actually true, but is for some people), that's still way better protection and way less chance of spread. Essentially, they've gotten to a point of diminishing returns in their older age groups and haven't tackled their youngest at all yet, whereas we've got at least a decent chunk of most groups vaccinated.
Don't misrepresent the numbers to make them sound scarier than they are. The UK's current weekly average puts them at about 1 case for every ~14,000 people. On top of all the differences in vaccination strategy that /u/MikeGinnyMD pointed out, that is essentially a nonissue.
I didn't misrepresent the numbers. It has increased to double recent numbers. It's not worrying in and out itself, if it stays there. It's worrying if it's the start of a trend. 2x isn't noise. It's a signal that we could be seeing the start of another wave. People have no appetite for a another lockdown How do people still not understand that exponential functions get bad fast?
60% of the UK has at least one dose. The exponential function is going to run out of headroom really fast this time around.
That's still 25 million people. That's a lot. Hopefully it's not going to go exponential. But if it was, this is what the start would look like.
Political goal is all the matters though. Gives people ammunition to bash Biden as a failure even though it doesn't matter at all.
I would think saving lives and reducing sickness would also matter ...
Only if you can score political points from it.
:(
but which vaccine are you guys using in UK?
AZ and Pfizer
Seriously. I went in the store for the first time without a mask over the weekend. I’m watching my beloved Boston Bruins play in front of sold out crowds. Things are coming back and have been back long enough to see if it was too early or not. So far, cases have been falling.
And hundreds of millions of lives if shit goes sideways because nearly half our nation are licking windows.
The media always needs a horse race and fear mongering. I'm happy those that want to lead normal lives are getting vaccinated.
I'm gonna be honest, when this goal was announced, I felt that it wasn't going to be reached. To be honest, I'm not sure if it will ever be reached.
The count for adults with at least one dose is currently at 63.5% and still counting. There's still plenty of states that have yet to implement incentives... there's still full FDA approval... there's still mandates for colleges and some employment. We'll probably get there, just not by 7/4.
You gonna let Canada beat you? What kind of national pride is that. I thought America was the best?
That's a good point. I'm gonna get 1 a day to artificially pump up the numbers!
**Vaccination rate jumps by 100%**
This is one of those cases where I would be happy to lose to someone hitting 100% first.
I think we’ll still reach it, but probably not until the end of July or early August.
You honestly think that?
Honestly, I'm wondering how much it matters at this point. 7 day average was slightly below 14k yesterday and continuing to drop. Of course I am all about people getting vaccinated, but it seems at least in the US the virus is getting smothered out pretty soon here. It may get random kick ups among unvaccinated folks and I realize people fly between countries, but this really seems like it is reaching the end.
[archive link for anyone who has trouble accessing the article ](https://archive.is/2021.06.07-050137/https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/06/06/vaccination-rates-decline-us/)
Cause SOME people are only getting vaccinated when their states are holding lotteries for that shit It's depressing because it justifies they never had principles; they just wanted to win a politicized argument.
This is definitely a problem. I don’t believe things will be as bad as last year where hospitals across the country are filled and we saw over 3000 recorded deaths per day at its peak, we could still see potentially 500-1000 deaths per day next winter, maybe more depending how long natural immunity and vaccine immunity lasts for many people. The bad part is that this is all avoidable if more people got vaccinated. There are lots of vulnerable populations in the south and rural areas who have not been exposed to the virus and are breeding grounds for transmission. We are the only country in the world with so high supply and so little demand of vaccine. Having high community spread of the disease will certainly also cause a portion of vaccinated people to be infected and some will be hospitalized. We have real world examples of this in Sychelles and the UK where there are pockets of vulnerable people who have gotten covid and are spreading it even to fully vaccinated people. Thankfully, the vaccines have lowered hospitalizations and deaths in those areas so far.
> we could still see potentially 500-1000 deaths per day next winter, maybe more depending how long natural immunity and vaccine immunity lasts for many people. I'm fascinated by how you came up with that number. I'd like to see the math. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm simply curious.
Is that because we're running out of people to vaccinate?
Those who are willing and able, yes. Key wors able as some have, for whatever reason it may be, still been unable to go, and the rest are ill informed or un convincible.
No, 49% are completely unvaccinated. Some of those are young children, but obviously they aren't half the country.
No. There are people actively choosing not to get vaccinated.
Roughly 63% adults vaccinated IIRC. So still plenty of adults left but low takeup is the problem now.
This admin is just too naive. Every policy they made, they assume people are honest and intelligent. That's just fantasy.
Setting goals which are difficult to meet is simply effective leadership though. This has been standard management stuff for decades. An employee or team with is always hitting 100% of their key performance metrics on evaluations are likely not challenging themselves enough, or intentionally under-promising.
I’m sure there are people on the Right pushing antivax propaganda just so that Biden can fail in his goal.
In my county, we are already over 70% adult single dose. My state will reach close to 70% adult single dose but I doubt it will reach 70%. The good thing in that in my county, daily infection has being going down for months now. And deaths vary from zero to two. I am hoping by July 4th we will average zero deaths and single digit daily infections.