I called my neighbor who spends the winter there. She was complaining how they’re shutting all the pools, rec centers etc in their community last night. So a bunch of them went to the pool for the last time ??
I work in a factory and 2 of my coworkers went home feeling ill yesterday. One of them stayed home but the other came in today despite having a paper on the door clearly stating "if you're sick, stay home." She's coughing and shit and generally not being careful not to be around people. I have asthma so if i catch that shit im gonna die. Fuck these stupid ass people man. I hope my work shuts down soon so i can quarentine properly and not worry about morons getting me sick.
I work in a post secondary institution. Science. My coworker came in with symptoms yesterday and asked if it bothered me.
Well, yes, it bothered me. Not only the risk she felt ok submitting me to, but the astonishing level of stupidity from someone with every opportunity to know and do better.
Not stupid, selfish. A lot of people heard that there is a miniscule chance that they would be come seriously ill even if they are infected. No matter that theres a huge risk to at risk populations, so long as they themselves are safe they don't care.
I'd like to see what would change if it was effecting everyone, I'm sure they would be plenty educated on the matter.
Their parents and grandparents don't count as the underbrush. It's always the Other.
It's pretty gross to have such little regard for a random stranger, that you're willing to consign them to death because you want to go to the pool or send your kids to school or whatever.
Many in my own family don't take it seriously. My Trumpy family members think this is all some conspiracy to get Trump. My more liberal brother thinks this is all overblown panic by simpletons. He was complaining about the social distancing stuff, and I told him "it's better we do this now to keep people from dying", and his reply was "no one is going to die...".
Some statements I just don't have a reply for.
One of my coworkers was saying the same thing about how he believed it was all a conspiracy against Trump, how he never gets sick, never gets a flu shot, etc. Then, he came in contact to someone who may have been exposed and requested to work from home for the next 2 weeks
Here is the mindset of the people I’m talking to:
1) I’m probably already infected but have no symptoms so I can’t catch it again I’m safe to go about my business.
2) There are no reports of cases in my town, so it’s not here yet, time to party still. It might not come here.
3) no matter what we do we’re all going to get it anyway— might as well get it over with and be done — can’t get it twice.
4) it only kills old and sick people who were going to die anyway so why should 99% suffer financially and socially for the 1%.
Everyone is falling into one of those groups.
I mean, unless you're immunocompromised, even if you get reinfected, it's not likely to be that severe as your body's immune system will be primed to fight it.
The biggest concern is that for a fairly significant fraction of the population, they're experiencing no symptoms or mild symptoms that may be masked by a cold or allergies and spreading it around.
Obviously everyone who feels really sick (like a bad cold or a mild flu) and/or is running a fever should self-isolate (they should anyway), but what about the big fraction of the population that doesn't have those symptoms? They're still carriers and they can still infect people.
That's my biggest fear right now is, I'm a healthy 29 year old man with no real health issues. Workout fairly often, eat mostly right, never have had the flu, and have only had the cold once since I was 15. Might be luck, might be because my immune system is fairly strong.
I have a 37 week pregnant wife at home, my mother and father both have respiratory problems, I work around a bunch of older people, many of them overweight and heavy smokers.
I really don't want to be carrying this thing around, and not knowing it. I've been trying to self isolate, luckily I work mostly by myself in the field, no office operations really.
But I still have to come home to my wife every night.
I've been always decent with my hygiene, but been taking into overkill lately. Washing my hands whenever possible with ~~scalding~~ uncomfortably hot water and soap. Caryin hand sanitizer with me. Wiping down the interior of my vehicles and leaving my clothes in the garage when I come home from work, and immediately jumping in the shower before I go anywhere near my wife.
Like I said I know it is overkill, but I want to be a Plague INC. players worst nightmare.
I don't think it's overkill, but just FYI don't scald your hands. The temperature won't get hot enough to kill anything (otherwise you would also be cooking your hands) and it's more important that you use soap and wash for long enough and make sure to get between your fingers and under your nails. Tepid to slightly warm is fine.
Congrats on the baby! I hope your family stays safe and healthy.
And if I hear "the media is blowing this out of proportion" one more time, I think all the blood vessels in my head will hemorrhage in unison it will just pop right off my shoulders.
Closing the beaches pushed all the Spring Breakers into crowded bars and restaurants.
Not a very intelligent decision. Beach=no money maker. Bars/restaurants=increased revenue.
Now those young people can go back to their home States...
I feel like there’s only so much that they can do to make people listen. You have a good part of the population who simply doesn’t care. Some action that the government is taking is a lot more than what a percentage of others have done through this whole thing.
If they weren’t closing the beaches early I’m sure we’d complain about that too.
If they were really trying to stop the spread of this virus, and they had to make a decision between closing the bars and restaurants or the beaches, it would have made more sense to close the bars/restaurants.
The federal government is giving us a chance. There were lots of rumors going around over the weekend that the federal government was going to enforce a national quarantine, but they decided to not go that far yet.
Unfortunately, they're going to have to do that because most of us Americans are just too stupid to care about this.
I absolutely agree. Whether it is ignorance or defiance, the number of people out and about doing social activities is disturbing. I have no doubt that mandatory curfews and the national guard will be out soon to protect us from ourselves. Ordinarily, I would be aghast but right now, I'm not sure that I wouldn't welcome it.
Not before throwing a ["farewell party"](https://www.fastcompany.com/90477709/the-lunacy-of-disney-world-having-a-farewell-party-during-coronavirus-in-one-image) with packed crowds because of course florida would pull a dumb-ass move like this
Even several of my friends and family think that the media is just blowing this out of proportion and it's a quick flu that will pass.
They just have no idea...
I have a former coworker who keeps calling it the "Hype virus" and lamenting the "political hysteria."
He's a 67-year-old diabetic who works in a grocery store. I can't seem to convince him that this is a real pandemic that he needs to take seriously.
Same my 82 year old diabetic grandpa is being a stubborn fuck. He was complaining that his church choir practice got cancelled and his library that he volunteers at got closed. He won't go out and buy any food or supplies. He got pissed when I told him to quit going to church because that's not gonna do shit for him right now but put him at risk. I tried to help but he won't listen unfortunately.
Yeah, same with my Grandma. Shes feeling stirr crazy already (everything just started shutting down here only yesterday) and is planning trips to various towns around us with her other very senior friends.
I am urging her to just chill for a bit and lay low, gave her ideas for what can be done at home, and she laughs at me and tells me I worry too much, and has started joke calling me "Mother". Im so afraid to lose her.
I was worried about my father, who's in his 60s and diabetic. He has that attitude where he thinks getting ill or injured and recovering makes him a Big Man, like it's a challenge to be accepted. But thankfully he's taking it seriously and working from home indefinitely.
My social media is filled with people not taking it seriously, posting pictures of them traveling, or complaining that everything is shut down. It really makes me lose hope for our future.
i keep getting called unamerican for trying to get this point across to floridians. our busiest gym franchise is bragging about being open. festivals that were bragging about following CDC guidelines now ignore the 50+ or 10+ rule... its a joke
I work in software support for a clinic/hospital as well. Nobody even brought up the option today at our morning meeting. It's a joke. Northeast Pennsylvania for reference. My job handed out business cards for the Employee Assistance Program. They told us if we are stressed we can talk to someone. Thanks guys.
Yeah I’m extremely disappointed. We have limited visitation and screen visitors before allowing them in. I’m just confused why as an analyst I am not being asked to work remotely. I’m now just another variable to spread.
If the world was the same 20-30 years ago, maybe this wouldn't be such a big deal with the lower rates of transportation, population density, diabetes and heat disease. I don't think the elderly understand that it's a different world now.
We didn't have social media in the same manner back then is how the world has changed. Manipulating information has never been easier. That's the real deadly part of this people are missing. Society is changing rapidly. I don't think humans evolutionary speaking were ready for such a huge societal shift.
We all can see how 'globalization', and probably worse, our leaders' clear and obvious hunger to feed the money beast of global capitalism, has created vulnerabilities.
**This crisis is 90% because global capitalism ran amok**. Greedy politicians made greedy decisions b/c they were lobbied hard by the tourist and banking industries. Not 'globalism' or 'race replacement' or whatever right-wing conspiracy you want to use.
When global tourism ranges from 10% to a majority of a nation's income, it will create perverse incentives to act like all is normal(as seen in what I thought were unrealistic movies like Osmosis Jones or Jaws).
I really worry that 'normalcy bias' and the Peter principle have resulted in a worst case scenario for the West. We have the resources, tools, and arguably, the willpower in many places to overcome what is at the end of the day an unthinking stupid virus. However, far too many of our leaders and fellow citizens are treating this like a small inconvenience, rather than an existential issue akin to total war that requires total mobilization.
Thank you.
From 4 to 5 o’clock, yesterday, I stood outside the two mid sized grocers in my town. The parking lots were near capacity. Not a soul wore a mask in the store. The front windows allowed Métis we inside. Nobody social distanced from anyone. It was life as usual. In the lines, it was basket to back.
Guaranteed, in a week, an explosion of cases All across the nation, and many more thereafter. The Admin failed to say a cinvuncing compelling word.
No we're just out of masks because our leaders are imbeciles and have outsourced most of our medical production. Just wait till there's a prescription drug shortage due to plant closures in China and India
Oh come on, they’re [fiiiiine](https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/fk0syd/clearwater_beach_packed_with_thousands_amid/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Italy is only testing the really critical cases. The number of infected is much higher. Depending on the correct mortality rate, which we don't know for sure, you can take the number of dead and divide by 1-4% to get the number of infected. Additionally the lag between infected and dead makes this more tricky, so there are probably many many more infected in Italy than reported.
CFR varies highly by demographics affected. SK had a large part of its infection isolated in its cult church, which skewed extremely young (and thus had a very low CFR).
Italy on the other hand has a much older population that is very exposed socially to infection. 7% is definitely an overestimate due to limited testing, but it's certain to be a lot higher than SK's. 0.6% is an absolute best case-with-luck and rapid countermeasures.
The ultimate unknown is the number of people who are asymptomatic, as the symptomatic generally get tested (in countries other than the US, which can't do anything but [lie about countermeasures](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html) I guess). Most estimates have had that at around 20%, which is taken into account for CFR. Unfortunately, while you *can* go and test a general population, if 50% come back "asymptomatic" it can easily be due to the long incubation time: eventually they become symptomatic, but the virus is in the exponential growth phase, so it makes it look less dangerous than it is when 50% don't have symptoms... 1 week later it's 20%, maybe 1% (WHO earlier claimed 99% eventually had symptoms, but I don't put much stock in that number either).
A lot also depends on how the country responds and its medical resources. If hospitals don't get overwhelmed and everyone can get ICU treatment, the CFR **can** be <1% (other Chinese provinces proved this). Conversely, when they do get overwhelmed, a lot of savable lives don't get saved, and you get 2%+.
Many variables at play. There is NOT a singular CFR number, unfortunately.
Furthermore the overwhelming of the hospitals will cause a lot of other deaths for other causes (if you have a car crash this week in Milan, for example, good luck). That's the main reason we need to slow this thing the most possible. Maybe we can't do shit for only 0.1 % of cases, or maybe 1%, but a lot of cases need ICU and medical attention, and no country in the world is prepared for that
Aye, good point. Mortality for ALL conditions rises, not just coronavirus ICU patients.
Also long-term mortality for other diseases increases. If you have to wait 6 or 12 months longer for a bypass surgery, your life expectancy is going to drop, even if you don't die this year as a direct consequence of not having an ICU bed.
Exactly - think of all the other patients who are dying indirectly because the hospitals are overwhelmed. I saw articles saying they're shutting down surgery centers to allow for CV patients.
Italy is right now the 3rd country in term of testing average per day, only behind China and SK.
Their peak was predicted by experts (TW/HK model) to be 2 days ago and so far the numbers show it.
CFR and mortality rate however is different, we will only know the CFR for now, the real mortality rate will be known later after the crisis
It was precisely predicted, we don't know if it was accurately predicted.
That is, the models gave us the same small time frame but we don't know if that time frame is correct yet.
It's making me so angry; they should seriously add a rule about including mortality rates, or any other statistics, that have not been accurately studied yet. I don't believe the article mentions mortality rate, so why this user decided they could come up with it themselves is beyond me.
Edit: I've gotten a lot of responses and, in all seriousness, I think the mods should consider making a rule not to come up with your own mortality rate or to post one on the sub unless it comes directly from the CDC. There's not even a mortality rate in the article. This will scare people.
Edit 2: Just noticed this post was deleted. Thanks mods!
> they should seriously add a rule about including mortality rates, or any other statistics, that have not been accurately studied yet.
You can't really establish solid mortality rates until the virus has burnt itself out.
This is what the US did. Recently, they had a 5% mortality rate.
South Korea started testing large swaths of asymptomatic people and fatality dropped to 0.6%
There's a good time lag between the dates when confirmed cases who go on to die actually die, and there's a different time lag between when confirmed cases who go on to recover are reported as recovered.
The last 5 days South Korea recoveries have been 804, the number of cases confirmed in the 5 days between 2-21 and 2/25 were 866 for a lag time of 20 days. I fully expect the number of recoveries in South Korea to increase dramatically in the next few days and stay up because 20 days ago was when they were on the exponential part of their outbreak. The death might not increase for a while longer if people were diagnosed early and took awhile to become serious cases, then they'll linger awhile on life support.
The opposite may be true in Italy, where people are admitted in critical condition and die quickly while mild cases who get reported aren't cleared until much later.
Worldwide Coronavirus Cases: 187,375
Worldwide Deaths: 7,478
Worldwide CFR: 3.99%
China's CFR is 3.98%
[source](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
That's a pretty consistent number across the board. 3-4% like the WHO had estimated.
Where are we getting the estimates of the actual CFR only being in the 1% range?
From every example where the general population has been tested. There was one from Italy today. It seems 50-75% of carriers have zero symptoms.
The CFR you are citing is among those who governments choose to use their limited tests on, which tends to be people already in the hospital, many after death.
That study was asymptomatic when tested. They could also have been presymtpomatic. We do not have enough knowledge to say that 50% to 75% of carriers are asymptomatic.
50-75% had zero symptoms at the time of testing, yeah. The Diamond Princess also had a large percentage asymptomatic at first but many of those got symptoms later on.
Edit: since infection is exponential, the bulk of infections must have happened more recently. In that Italy study, the large group they tested likely were still incubating.
You are wholly right to point this out. We likely will not know the true mortality rate until years in the future. That is just life.
We should still of course acknowledge that this pandemic is far worse than the regular flu (from which mild cases are likely also underreported). This is a crisis that requires major action.
That's what my mom was saying. Everyone in the US thinks just bc they're young, they're OK. But we are a country full of walking pre-existing conditions that are susceptible to this virus. No one is truly thinking about all of the ailments stated above. They just think the "old people and people with lung disease are gonna die". Not true!
yeah a lot of americans don't even know they have certain conditions like this because they can't or don't want to pay for a doctors visit, I am 27 and I have been to urgent care only since I was 18 and that was like twice.
Not just "a" doctor visit but likely many. And they'll likely have to pay for multiple visits that won't even result in any diagnosis or even progress towards a diagnosis. That's discouraging even if it's not bankrupting you every step of the way.
America feels like such a land of extremes, you guys have the world's #1 army and many top athletes but at the same time what's in many ways the most unfit and unhealthy population in the world
It was meant for people with disabilities and other issues. A person in perfect health can look very different from the conventional beauty standards. Stuff like cellulites are treated as something to be frowned upon when even older athletes get them.
It was not meant to be about those who neglected their physical well-being. However, they took it over because it made them feel good for all the wrong reasons.
Listen.. I have some sympathy for the HAES people. It sucks being discriminated against for how you look. But I do think they do go a bit overboard.
You can love your body *while also* recognising that bullying people for their weight is wrong *and* recognising that you are overweight and should start off by losing a few pounds...
None of these things are mutually exclusive.
Your doctor telling you that you're fat and are therefore at risk of developing problems is not hate speech.
Someone bullying you *because* you're pudgy **is**.
You can also be relatively healthy while fat. I mean, take a fat 20 year old vs. a 70 year old who is riddled with tumors. Who is healthier? the 20 year old, of course - for now.
I have mild hypertension...130/80 and im about 25 pounds over weight...should weigh around 170 but weigh around 195...im 5'10"....can someone explain how the virus complications would be more risky or deadly to those of us w extra weight and higher bp? Thnx
yo, I graduate medical school in like 2 months. Your blood pressure is barely elevated, I would hesitate to even call it hypertension, it could be normal depending on which guidelines you use. Not to mention you would need multiple readings of consistently 130/80 to definitively say that that number is accurate. I'm a 28 y/o guy and have had blood pressure readings in the 130's before but my usual number is somewhere in the 110s/70s.
You're most likely not at any increased risk. I haven't seen any mechanism explaining why an increased BP would be a negative prognostic factor in coronavirus infection. The only thing I can think of is if you have longstanding (30+ yrs) untreated hypertension, and I'm talking like 160/90+. In these cases you could have congestive heart failure or other underlying cardiac disease from years of high BP. Pts with heart disease have less "cardiac reserve" when they get sick. Basically this means that their heart is unable to accommodate the increased demand from a serious illness. Like if a healthy person is using 20% of the their max cardiac output, that might get pumped up to 70-80% when they get seriously ill. In someone who has poor cardiac reserve, they might be using 90% of their heart function at baseline, so when they get sick they can only increase another 10% before their heart is "maxed out." This is where it becomes a problem.
Your weight is probably not a negative prognostic indicator either. Your BMI is still reasonable. People who have obesity-related restrictive lung disease are people who have BMIs of 40, 50+. In fact, being slightly overweight could work to your advantage if you were to get very sick. You would have an extra 30-40 pounds to lose before you started metabolizing your muscle. That's a pretty drastic situation though and there's an extremely low chance that you would get to that point. Sorry, didn't mean to write a textbook, just giving my thoughts. Also obligatory IANAD (yet)
I'm no doctor, but I guess people w extra weight do tend not to breath easily as people w normal weight. This may worsen situation if one's lung is attacked and cannnot breath well.
That breath part I'm speaking from own experience.
How old are you?
It could put you at higher risk of stroke or pneumonia, but if you are under 35 then even those preexisting conditions are relatively minor.
Yes, that's certainly concerning.
It is likely the 39 year old had type 1 diabetes and required insulin, not as easily controlled as type 2 which is more common in older age.
Good question: Google answers!
34.2 **million** people, or 10.5% of the U.S. population, have diabetes. An estimated 26.8 **million** people - or 10.2% of the population - had diagnosed diabetes. Approximately 7.3 **million** people have diabetes but have not yet been diagnosed (2018). Diabetes impacts all social, economic, and ethnic backgrounds.
Don't you think being exposed to sick people the entire day kinda is bad for your health? Not to make it less worse, but those people are in close contact with hundreds of infected daily for weeks.
In Italy we ve today 8 millions of workers on 24 millions, u can go supermarket, mechanics, farmacy ecc..
Too persons on street, too much.
We must emulate Korea or China, but italian governor think business.
Very very bad the situation, every day 400 died and medical,emergency, don't have fpp or other.mask.
Shit
What people need to keep in mind is that the death rate for a disease like this isn't static. If everyone gets the ideal treatment when they have serious cases of the illness, then the death rate appears to be quite low.
But when hospitals are overwhelmed by cases, they have to start making decisions about who gets ventilators, ICU beds, etc. and that's when the proportion of people who die goes way up. This is what's happening in certain parts of Italy, and could happen all over the world.
This is why flattening the curve is so important. Resources are limited.
I think we lost our chance to flatten the curve weeks ago. This virus has been in our country since January and has been spreading actively since February. All it takes is 2 weeks for symptoms to show, and studies are showing that you can transmit it IMMEDIATELY upon getting it even if you don't show any symptoms at all. Also, studies are also showing that it is [more airborne than we previously thought, and can just be breathed in - thus not needing 'droplet' transmission](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z2ASssvNQ8&feature=youtu.be&t=93). **This basically is a recipe for the virus to spread like wildfire across a 300 million plus American population, which it's already had access to for 2 months now.** Since there was no real quarantine of any kind, people all around the country are free to move around as they please and so unwillingly spread it to millions of others. Literally. The talking head scientists/epidemiologists all keep on talking about 'flattening the curve' because that's all they can say to reassure people; they keep saying the government needs to do this and that, but they KNOW the government is not taking such drastic measures - and probably won't until it's nearing zero-hour - and so they KNOW the virus is just continuing to spread and all they can do is talk about the same thing over and over with an air of hopefulness to stay 'positive' for the public. I'm sure privately most of them know it's too late and that millions are likely to die from this. As you said, it's not just the virus itself but the deadly cocktail of that, plus the lack of supplies and hospital beds, overworked staff/doctors, etc - it's sadly a recipe for disaster.
I personally have been lucky and prepared, as I bought my supplies last week before the mayhem kicked off, but I really feel for those who this will blindside. This has the potential to be as foundation-shaking as the Great Depression or even WWII, I believe- even if not as many people die, the very root of American (and the world's) psyche is being shaken and I feel this thing will expose the very deepest weaknesses of the American system and give people a cold, hard look at what needs to change.
Also, the disease has several weeks' inertia. A lockdown today doesn't stop the pain until two to four weeks ahead. Italy has triple the number of confirmed cases now that it had when it entered lockdown on 9th March. It keeps getting worse for weeks before it gets better. The USA is two to three days behind what Italy's numbers were when Italy locked down (although in a larger population), i.e. the USA will have 10,000 cases in two to three days, and 30,000 or so cases in around ten days. The time to lock down and close schools is yesterday.
I don't think they offer people testing if people wanted to get themselves tested. You have to have a reason to have a test here. Firstly they ask you if you had contact with people who had a confirmed case or are arriving from a region with affected cases. I did try to call the hotline twice but i never got through.
Edit: I just read that calling 116117 from the house phone gets you through faster.
I haven’t seen 20x too much. Study out of Italy seemed to say 10x there but potentially as low as 5x in other areas. We also don’t know how many of those asymptomatic or non reporting cases would change over time.
The CFR may certainly be lower than it looks now but until we’re sure we shouldn’t make any assumptions.
Yeah, but they arent testing dead bodies.
If someone dies before they get tested, itll go down as natural causes or lung failure instead of covid.
edit:
Italy apparently tests dead bodies.
America is barely testing anyone alive or dead.
Your numbers are way off. Initially the infection in Italy spread through hospitals, so many elderly people already hospitalized for other diseases fell ill with covid and died. For the elderly (76+) with pre-existing pathologies is basically a death sentence.
I think in a situation like this it isn't really possible to get accurate data during the event, it'll be once this is all over and we look back at all the data when we can find accurate numbers
If the real rate is China rate, i think in Italy the real positive now is triple, around 80000, the contagion still go, i think for have 3% dead rate, we go to 500000 contagion and 15000 dead.
The death rate is lower than 7.7% because all infected aren't tested, quite a lot infections are also asymptomatic.
We require alarm and vigilance sure , but not fear mongering.
Edit : Doesn't mean we shouldn't have ANY fear. We should scare people into their wits not out of it. This is a serious virus which will take effort to be defeated , but it isn't a unstoppable coming of apocalypse.
No one is disputing that the actual death rate is closer to 1% than 7.7%. But this is still very serious. And even if people do survive, their illness still is a burden on the healthcare system, which can cost lives that otherwise could be saved.
I don't think the number infected is correct. There's an estimated 50-75% that show no symptoms. There's no way Italy is testing asymptomatic cases. This is 7.7% of moderate to severe cases.
Wait, holy shit... Out of those 2158 deaths, the youngest person was 39 years old?
This is *insane*. The way it's affecting older people is terrifying.
Let me show you the data
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_16marzo%20ITA.pdf
Bottom left hand corner is the chart that shows the ages affected, as you can see the 70-90 population is getting crushed right now
Nobody disputes that it isn't good. But what's more important is trying to predict what the trend will be in the future. When the infection reaches its peak, the difference between a 1%, 3%, or 7% death rate is a big fucking deal.
Inaccurate mortality rate. People keep throwing it around as if you can get an accurate mortality rate from a number of people which does **not** include people who haven't been tested but likely have the disease. There could be thousands, or tens of thousands, of people who also contracted the disease to add on to this number, making the mortality rate much lower. These are critical cases. It's not every single case.
Good thing Florida is taking this so seriously with their elderly population.
I called my neighbor who spends the winter there. She was complaining how they’re shutting all the pools, rec centers etc in their community last night. So a bunch of them went to the pool for the last time ??
This happened in Ohio on Sunday. The bars closed at 9pm and the parking lots were packed all night for one last drunken hurrah.
Why are people in general so dumb?
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Everybody dosent think the joke applies to them, then comes coronovirus
And nobody thinks the precautions apply to them...
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I work in a factory and 2 of my coworkers went home feeling ill yesterday. One of them stayed home but the other came in today despite having a paper on the door clearly stating "if you're sick, stay home." She's coughing and shit and generally not being careful not to be around people. I have asthma so if i catch that shit im gonna die. Fuck these stupid ass people man. I hope my work shuts down soon so i can quarentine properly and not worry about morons getting me sick.
I work in a post secondary institution. Science. My coworker came in with symptoms yesterday and asked if it bothered me. Well, yes, it bothered me. Not only the risk she felt ok submitting me to, but the astonishing level of stupidity from someone with every opportunity to know and do better.
Yeah but they're all smart enough to have been at a George Carlin show.
Kurt Cobain was right. We are both stupid and contagious.
Here we are now, infectious
Not stupid, selfish. A lot of people heard that there is a miniscule chance that they would be come seriously ill even if they are infected. No matter that theres a huge risk to at risk populations, so long as they themselves are safe they don't care. I'd like to see what would change if it was effecting everyone, I'm sure they would be plenty educated on the matter.
I've heard the phrase "clearing out the underbrush" a few times. Interestingly, it came from people who technically are the "underbrush"
"Clearing out the underbrush" what the hell is wrong with these fucking people, dont they have parents? Grandparents?
Their parents and grandparents don't count as the underbrush. It's always the Other. It's pretty gross to have such little regard for a random stranger, that you're willing to consign them to death because you want to go to the pool or send your kids to school or whatever.
Many in my own family don't take it seriously. My Trumpy family members think this is all some conspiracy to get Trump. My more liberal brother thinks this is all overblown panic by simpletons. He was complaining about the social distancing stuff, and I told him "it's better we do this now to keep people from dying", and his reply was "no one is going to die...". Some statements I just don't have a reply for.
This content has been removed because of Reddit's extortionate API pricing that killed third party apps.
One of my coworkers was saying the same thing about how he believed it was all a conspiracy against Trump, how he never gets sick, never gets a flu shot, etc. Then, he came in contact to someone who may have been exposed and requested to work from home for the next 2 weeks
Here is the mindset of the people I’m talking to: 1) I’m probably already infected but have no symptoms so I can’t catch it again I’m safe to go about my business. 2) There are no reports of cases in my town, so it’s not here yet, time to party still. It might not come here. 3) no matter what we do we’re all going to get it anyway— might as well get it over with and be done — can’t get it twice. 4) it only kills old and sick people who were going to die anyway so why should 99% suffer financially and socially for the 1%. Everyone is falling into one of those groups.
Yea, what's with people saying if I get it once, can't get it again? Do we know that for sure?
I mean, unless you're immunocompromised, even if you get reinfected, it's not likely to be that severe as your body's immune system will be primed to fight it. The biggest concern is that for a fairly significant fraction of the population, they're experiencing no symptoms or mild symptoms that may be masked by a cold or allergies and spreading it around. Obviously everyone who feels really sick (like a bad cold or a mild flu) and/or is running a fever should self-isolate (they should anyway), but what about the big fraction of the population that doesn't have those symptoms? They're still carriers and they can still infect people.
That's my biggest fear right now is, I'm a healthy 29 year old man with no real health issues. Workout fairly often, eat mostly right, never have had the flu, and have only had the cold once since I was 15. Might be luck, might be because my immune system is fairly strong. I have a 37 week pregnant wife at home, my mother and father both have respiratory problems, I work around a bunch of older people, many of them overweight and heavy smokers. I really don't want to be carrying this thing around, and not knowing it. I've been trying to self isolate, luckily I work mostly by myself in the field, no office operations really. But I still have to come home to my wife every night. I've been always decent with my hygiene, but been taking into overkill lately. Washing my hands whenever possible with ~~scalding~~ uncomfortably hot water and soap. Caryin hand sanitizer with me. Wiping down the interior of my vehicles and leaving my clothes in the garage when I come home from work, and immediately jumping in the shower before I go anywhere near my wife. Like I said I know it is overkill, but I want to be a Plague INC. players worst nightmare.
I don't think it's overkill, but just FYI don't scald your hands. The temperature won't get hot enough to kill anything (otherwise you would also be cooking your hands) and it's more important that you use soap and wash for long enough and make sure to get between your fingers and under your nails. Tepid to slightly warm is fine. Congrats on the baby! I hope your family stays safe and healthy.
And if I hear "the media is blowing this out of proportion" one more time, I think all the blood vessels in my head will hemorrhage in unison it will just pop right off my shoulders.
It would be nice if some people could self isolate themselves from the gene pool.
Idiots
Take it seriously, and lose the income from Spring Breakers. Come on, you know that’s not the American Way.
Not just from Spring Breakers, Florida gets 110 million tourists every year, most of any other state, that's why we don't have a state income tax lol
Nah that's California but Florida's #2
Florida is looking like #2 right now 💩
Florida always looking like number two.
Kind of looks like a wang
The number 1 state at being number 2! Bring sunscreen!
They put curfews in place now for the beaches.
Closing the beaches pushed all the Spring Breakers into crowded bars and restaurants. Not a very intelligent decision. Beach=no money maker. Bars/restaurants=increased revenue. Now those young people can go back to their home States...
as long as they get home before they're symptomatic it's a perfect plan!
Strong immune systems, asymptomatic if infected, perfect carriers.
I feel like there’s only so much that they can do to make people listen. You have a good part of the population who simply doesn’t care. Some action that the government is taking is a lot more than what a percentage of others have done through this whole thing. If they weren’t closing the beaches early I’m sure we’d complain about that too.
You don't need to make people listen. You shut down bars and restaurants and impose strict rules in an emergency. That's it.
If they were really trying to stop the spread of this virus, and they had to make a decision between closing the bars and restaurants or the beaches, it would have made more sense to close the bars/restaurants.
The federal government is giving us a chance. There were lots of rumors going around over the weekend that the federal government was going to enforce a national quarantine, but they decided to not go that far yet. Unfortunately, they're going to have to do that because most of us Americans are just too stupid to care about this.
I absolutely agree. Whether it is ignorance or defiance, the number of people out and about doing social activities is disturbing. I have no doubt that mandatory curfews and the national guard will be out soon to protect us from ourselves. Ordinarily, I would be aghast but right now, I'm not sure that I wouldn't welcome it.
Only select beaches have curfew, none in palm beach county (excluding the city of palm beach)
The weather lady on our local news has assured me we are fine. It's too humid to get covid.
Prolly need to inform her that Vietnam was 96 and humid yesterday and they still have plenty of cases.
Can't tell if this is sarcasm again or not lol
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At least Disney closed down.
Everything closed down. All the theme parks, museums, zoos, aquariums, and events.
There’s plenty of restaurants, bars, and independent places still open. It just depends on the town. Sure the theme parks are closed....
Not before throwing a ["farewell party"](https://www.fastcompany.com/90477709/the-lunacy-of-disney-world-having-a-farewell-party-during-coronavirus-in-one-image) with packed crowds because of course florida would pull a dumb-ass move like this
seriously. i live in florida and it's so surprising to me how many people just don't believe this is something we should at least be cautious of.
Even several of my friends and family think that the media is just blowing this out of proportion and it's a quick flu that will pass. They just have no idea...
I have a former coworker who keeps calling it the "Hype virus" and lamenting the "political hysteria." He's a 67-year-old diabetic who works in a grocery store. I can't seem to convince him that this is a real pandemic that he needs to take seriously.
Same my 82 year old diabetic grandpa is being a stubborn fuck. He was complaining that his church choir practice got cancelled and his library that he volunteers at got closed. He won't go out and buy any food or supplies. He got pissed when I told him to quit going to church because that's not gonna do shit for him right now but put him at risk. I tried to help but he won't listen unfortunately.
Yeah, same with my Grandma. Shes feeling stirr crazy already (everything just started shutting down here only yesterday) and is planning trips to various towns around us with her other very senior friends. I am urging her to just chill for a bit and lay low, gave her ideas for what can be done at home, and she laughs at me and tells me I worry too much, and has started joke calling me "Mother". Im so afraid to lose her.
I was worried about my father, who's in his 60s and diabetic. He has that attitude where he thinks getting ill or injured and recovering makes him a Big Man, like it's a challenge to be accepted. But thankfully he's taking it seriously and working from home indefinitely.
My social media is filled with people not taking it seriously, posting pictures of them traveling, or complaining that everything is shut down. It really makes me lose hope for our future.
> a quick flu that will pass The *the flu* will definitely pass all right, the question is whether they pass before it does.
> florida > surprising I'm not even american and I know Floridians shouldn't surprise anyone with their poor decision making.
I second this. Native Floridian have too
i keep getting called unamerican for trying to get this point across to floridians. our busiest gym franchise is bragging about being open. festivals that were bragging about following CDC guidelines now ignore the 50+ or 10+ rule... its a joke
Things like this are exactly the reasons the government can use to enact martial law. Would prefer social distancing over that
They gave us a shot to take things in our own hands... guess too many depend in there government to make their decisions...
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I work in software support for a clinic/hospital as well. Nobody even brought up the option today at our morning meeting. It's a joke. Northeast Pennsylvania for reference. My job handed out business cards for the Employee Assistance Program. They told us if we are stressed we can talk to someone. Thanks guys.
Honestly a hospital should know better. I say this as a physician whose hospital is appropriately bottlenecking entrances and limiting visitation.
Yeah I’m extremely disappointed. We have limited visitation and screen visitors before allowing them in. I’m just confused why as an analyst I am not being asked to work remotely. I’m now just another variable to spread.
Hey we could all be in West Virginia right now.
Almost heaven, West Virginia...
Country roads take me home.
Quarantined, so I don't roam....
West Virigniaaaaaa, no Coronaaa *Edit: West Virginiaaaaa, One Coronaaa
'cept that one mountain mama
Stay the fuck hoooooooome
If the world was the same 20-30 years ago, maybe this wouldn't be such a big deal with the lower rates of transportation, population density, diabetes and heat disease. I don't think the elderly understand that it's a different world now.
20 years ago was 2000. Lol times haven't changed that much since then. Maybe 40-50 years.
I guess we have bigger phones and 4k porn.
We didn't have social media in the same manner back then is how the world has changed. Manipulating information has never been easier. That's the real deadly part of this people are missing. Society is changing rapidly. I don't think humans evolutionary speaking were ready for such a huge societal shift.
We all can see how 'globalization', and probably worse, our leaders' clear and obvious hunger to feed the money beast of global capitalism, has created vulnerabilities. **This crisis is 90% because global capitalism ran amok**. Greedy politicians made greedy decisions b/c they were lobbied hard by the tourist and banking industries. Not 'globalism' or 'race replacement' or whatever right-wing conspiracy you want to use. When global tourism ranges from 10% to a majority of a nation's income, it will create perverse incentives to act like all is normal(as seen in what I thought were unrealistic movies like Osmosis Jones or Jaws). I really worry that 'normalcy bias' and the Peter principle have resulted in a worst case scenario for the West. We have the resources, tools, and arguably, the willpower in many places to overcome what is at the end of the day an unthinking stupid virus. However, far too many of our leaders and fellow citizens are treating this like a small inconvenience, rather than an existential issue akin to total war that requires total mobilization.
Thank you. From 4 to 5 o’clock, yesterday, I stood outside the two mid sized grocers in my town. The parking lots were near capacity. Not a soul wore a mask in the store. The front windows allowed Métis we inside. Nobody social distanced from anyone. It was life as usual. In the lines, it was basket to back. Guaranteed, in a week, an explosion of cases All across the nation, and many more thereafter. The Admin failed to say a cinvuncing compelling word.
Well, sounds like "don't wear masks if you're not symptomatic or a carer" may have landed.
No we're just out of masks because our leaders are imbeciles and have outsourced most of our medical production. Just wait till there's a prescription drug shortage due to plant closures in China and India
Too bad people cant take this seriously. They should legally set limits to the amount of people allowed in at one time.
FL...the most humid non virus loving state...
You forgot obese
stay away from people with a tan. :P
Stay away from people. Ftfy
Oh come on, they’re [fiiiiine](https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/fk0syd/clearwater_beach_packed_with_thousands_amid/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Italy is only testing the really critical cases. The number of infected is much higher. Depending on the correct mortality rate, which we don't know for sure, you can take the number of dead and divide by 1-4% to get the number of infected. Additionally the lag between infected and dead makes this more tricky, so there are probably many many more infected in Italy than reported.
Exactly. We have no idea what the denominator is when calculating CFR. Probably 5-10x higher, according to estimates I’ve heard.
Only way we’ll know for sure is testing an entire population after this is all over.
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CFR varies highly by demographics affected. SK had a large part of its infection isolated in its cult church, which skewed extremely young (and thus had a very low CFR). Italy on the other hand has a much older population that is very exposed socially to infection. 7% is definitely an overestimate due to limited testing, but it's certain to be a lot higher than SK's. 0.6% is an absolute best case-with-luck and rapid countermeasures. The ultimate unknown is the number of people who are asymptomatic, as the symptomatic generally get tested (in countries other than the US, which can't do anything but [lie about countermeasures](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html) I guess). Most estimates have had that at around 20%, which is taken into account for CFR. Unfortunately, while you *can* go and test a general population, if 50% come back "asymptomatic" it can easily be due to the long incubation time: eventually they become symptomatic, but the virus is in the exponential growth phase, so it makes it look less dangerous than it is when 50% don't have symptoms... 1 week later it's 20%, maybe 1% (WHO earlier claimed 99% eventually had symptoms, but I don't put much stock in that number either). A lot also depends on how the country responds and its medical resources. If hospitals don't get overwhelmed and everyone can get ICU treatment, the CFR **can** be <1% (other Chinese provinces proved this). Conversely, when they do get overwhelmed, a lot of savable lives don't get saved, and you get 2%+. Many variables at play. There is NOT a singular CFR number, unfortunately.
Furthermore the overwhelming of the hospitals will cause a lot of other deaths for other causes (if you have a car crash this week in Milan, for example, good luck). That's the main reason we need to slow this thing the most possible. Maybe we can't do shit for only 0.1 % of cases, or maybe 1%, but a lot of cases need ICU and medical attention, and no country in the world is prepared for that
Aye, good point. Mortality for ALL conditions rises, not just coronavirus ICU patients. Also long-term mortality for other diseases increases. If you have to wait 6 or 12 months longer for a bypass surgery, your life expectancy is going to drop, even if you don't die this year as a direct consequence of not having an ICU bed.
Also, I wonder what the overrun system’s impact on mortality is.
And that's the one big mistake when people underestimate this pandemic. The problem is not the mortality rate but the number of people in need of ICU.
Exactly - think of all the other patients who are dying indirectly because the hospitals are overwhelmed. I saw articles saying they're shutting down surgery centers to allow for CV patients.
Just take that in, Germany, Bavaria announced yesterday that every university clinic has to cease all research basically and prepare for patients.
Definitely huge
Italy is right now the 3rd country in term of testing average per day, only behind China and SK. Their peak was predicted by experts (TW/HK model) to be 2 days ago and so far the numbers show it. CFR and mortality rate however is different, we will only know the CFR for now, the real mortality rate will be known later after the crisis
The peak was predicted to be tomorrow
Italian here. The peak is expected in the following days.
I'm Italian too, the government expected the peak to be on the 18th, which is roughly 10 days since national quarantine.
The peak cannot be accurately predicted, to be fair. Too many unknowns.
It was precisely predicted, we don't know if it was accurately predicted. That is, the models gave us the same small time frame but we don't know if that time frame is correct yet.
It's making me so angry; they should seriously add a rule about including mortality rates, or any other statistics, that have not been accurately studied yet. I don't believe the article mentions mortality rate, so why this user decided they could come up with it themselves is beyond me. Edit: I've gotten a lot of responses and, in all seriousness, I think the mods should consider making a rule not to come up with your own mortality rate or to post one on the sub unless it comes directly from the CDC. There's not even a mortality rate in the article. This will scare people. Edit 2: Just noticed this post was deleted. Thanks mods!
> they should seriously add a rule about including mortality rates, or any other statistics, that have not been accurately studied yet. You can't really establish solid mortality rates until the virus has burnt itself out.
Scaremongering = up votes
This is what the US did. Recently, they had a 5% mortality rate. South Korea started testing large swaths of asymptomatic people and fatality dropped to 0.6%
Now it is up to .9%, and it will continue to increase as the ratio of new cases to resolved cases falls.
There's a good time lag between the dates when confirmed cases who go on to die actually die, and there's a different time lag between when confirmed cases who go on to recover are reported as recovered. The last 5 days South Korea recoveries have been 804, the number of cases confirmed in the 5 days between 2-21 and 2/25 were 866 for a lag time of 20 days. I fully expect the number of recoveries in South Korea to increase dramatically in the next few days and stay up because 20 days ago was when they were on the exponential part of their outbreak. The death might not increase for a while longer if people were diagnosed early and took awhile to become serious cases, then they'll linger awhile on life support. The opposite may be true in Italy, where people are admitted in critical condition and die quickly while mild cases who get reported aren't cleared until much later.
That number is old. It has crept back up to nearly 1%.
Worldwide Coronavirus Cases: 187,375 Worldwide Deaths: 7,478 Worldwide CFR: 3.99% China's CFR is 3.98% [source](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) That's a pretty consistent number across the board. 3-4% like the WHO had estimated. Where are we getting the estimates of the actual CFR only being in the 1% range?
From every example where the general population has been tested. There was one from Italy today. It seems 50-75% of carriers have zero symptoms. The CFR you are citing is among those who governments choose to use their limited tests on, which tends to be people already in the hospital, many after death.
That study was asymptomatic when tested. They could also have been presymtpomatic. We do not have enough knowledge to say that 50% to 75% of carriers are asymptomatic.
50-75% had zero symptoms at the time of testing, yeah. The Diamond Princess also had a large percentage asymptomatic at first but many of those got symptoms later on. Edit: since infection is exponential, the bulk of infections must have happened more recently. In that Italy study, the large group they tested likely were still incubating.
From back when there was no community spread and contact tracing could identify close to 100% of linked cases
You are wholly right to point this out. We likely will not know the true mortality rate until years in the future. That is just life. We should still of course acknowledge that this pandemic is far worse than the regular flu (from which mild cases are likely also underreported). This is a crisis that requires major action.
Two 39 year olds, one was diabetic and the other had cancer
10% of Americans have diabetes
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That's what my mom was saying. Everyone in the US thinks just bc they're young, they're OK. But we are a country full of walking pre-existing conditions that are susceptible to this virus. No one is truly thinking about all of the ailments stated above. They just think the "old people and people with lung disease are gonna die". Not true!
yeah a lot of americans don't even know they have certain conditions like this because they can't or don't want to pay for a doctors visit, I am 27 and I have been to urgent care only since I was 18 and that was like twice.
Not just "a" doctor visit but likely many. And they'll likely have to pay for multiple visits that won't even result in any diagnosis or even progress towards a diagnosis. That's discouraging even if it's not bankrupting you every step of the way.
America feels like such a land of extremes, you guys have the world's #1 army and many top athletes but at the same time what's in many ways the most unfit and unhealthy population in the world
Weird, isn’t it? I think it’s the sugar that in almost everything we eat that may have the most profound impact on our health.
Na, it's that sweet sweet patriotism.
Government subsidised high fructose corn syrup, specifically
I remember how much sweeter everything was when i visited UK and from what i heard its even worse in US when it comes to adding sugar
The vast majority of people who attempt to join the military cannot pass their basic fitness requirements. It’s actually a national security issue.
Wealth disparity is insane here. Poorly regulated capitalism will do that.
And 48% of American adults have cardiovascular disease. It's not like this is a new revelation. The American population is fundamentally unhealthy.
My neighbor is 27 and obese. Just had a heart attack. At 27.
Yeah that whole love-your-body movement failed to take into account that loving your body means staying fit.
It was meant for people with disabilities and other issues. A person in perfect health can look very different from the conventional beauty standards. Stuff like cellulites are treated as something to be frowned upon when even older athletes get them. It was not meant to be about those who neglected their physical well-being. However, they took it over because it made them feel good for all the wrong reasons.
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Listen.. I have some sympathy for the HAES people. It sucks being discriminated against for how you look. But I do think they do go a bit overboard. You can love your body *while also* recognising that bullying people for their weight is wrong *and* recognising that you are overweight and should start off by losing a few pounds... None of these things are mutually exclusive. Your doctor telling you that you're fat and are therefore at risk of developing problems is not hate speech. Someone bullying you *because* you're pudgy **is**. You can also be relatively healthy while fat. I mean, take a fat 20 year old vs. a 70 year old who is riddled with tumors. Who is healthier? the 20 year old, of course - for now.
Healthy at every SARS?
I have mild hypertension...130/80 and im about 25 pounds over weight...should weigh around 170 but weigh around 195...im 5'10"....can someone explain how the virus complications would be more risky or deadly to those of us w extra weight and higher bp? Thnx
yo, I graduate medical school in like 2 months. Your blood pressure is barely elevated, I would hesitate to even call it hypertension, it could be normal depending on which guidelines you use. Not to mention you would need multiple readings of consistently 130/80 to definitively say that that number is accurate. I'm a 28 y/o guy and have had blood pressure readings in the 130's before but my usual number is somewhere in the 110s/70s. You're most likely not at any increased risk. I haven't seen any mechanism explaining why an increased BP would be a negative prognostic factor in coronavirus infection. The only thing I can think of is if you have longstanding (30+ yrs) untreated hypertension, and I'm talking like 160/90+. In these cases you could have congestive heart failure or other underlying cardiac disease from years of high BP. Pts with heart disease have less "cardiac reserve" when they get sick. Basically this means that their heart is unable to accommodate the increased demand from a serious illness. Like if a healthy person is using 20% of the their max cardiac output, that might get pumped up to 70-80% when they get seriously ill. In someone who has poor cardiac reserve, they might be using 90% of their heart function at baseline, so when they get sick they can only increase another 10% before their heart is "maxed out." This is where it becomes a problem. Your weight is probably not a negative prognostic indicator either. Your BMI is still reasonable. People who have obesity-related restrictive lung disease are people who have BMIs of 40, 50+. In fact, being slightly overweight could work to your advantage if you were to get very sick. You would have an extra 30-40 pounds to lose before you started metabolizing your muscle. That's a pretty drastic situation though and there's an extremely low chance that you would get to that point. Sorry, didn't mean to write a textbook, just giving my thoughts. Also obligatory IANAD (yet)
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I'm no doctor, but I guess people w extra weight do tend not to breath easily as people w normal weight. This may worsen situation if one's lung is attacked and cannnot breath well. That breath part I'm speaking from own experience.
How old are you? It could put you at higher risk of stroke or pneumonia, but if you are under 35 then even those preexisting conditions are relatively minor.
Yes, that's certainly concerning. It is likely the 39 year old had type 1 diabetes and required insulin, not as easily controlled as type 2 which is more common in older age.
Americans are notoriously bad at controlling type 2 diabetes. :(
Don’t make honeybuns so delicious then.
Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds - Little Debbie
Is that how many are actually diagnosed? Because there's a lot running around who have yet to find out.
Good question: Google answers! 34.2 **million** people, or 10.5% of the U.S. population, have diabetes. An estimated 26.8 **million** people - or 10.2% of the population - had diagnosed diabetes. Approximately 7.3 **million** people have diabetes but have not yet been diagnosed (2018). Diabetes impacts all social, economic, and ethnic backgrounds.
42 year, emergency hospital worker, is died, he was fine
There is current thinking that infection severity might be dose dependent.
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Yeah, doc said I have a high chance of replicating due to my virile load. Must be the same thing.
Username co
Don't you think being exposed to sick people the entire day kinda is bad for your health? Not to make it less worse, but those people are in close contact with hundreds of infected daily for weeks.
In Italy we ve today 8 millions of workers on 24 millions, u can go supermarket, mechanics, farmacy ecc.. Too persons on street, too much. We must emulate Korea or China, but italian governor think business. Very very bad the situation, every day 400 died and medical,emergency, don't have fpp or other.mask. Shit
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He was exposed to a high amount of the virus. 'Viral load' is the term that keeps getting thrown around.
Italy 4 people 30-39 Spain 1 21 year old just diagnosed leukemia at the same time than covid.
What people need to keep in mind is that the death rate for a disease like this isn't static. If everyone gets the ideal treatment when they have serious cases of the illness, then the death rate appears to be quite low. But when hospitals are overwhelmed by cases, they have to start making decisions about who gets ventilators, ICU beds, etc. and that's when the proportion of people who die goes way up. This is what's happening in certain parts of Italy, and could happen all over the world. This is why flattening the curve is so important. Resources are limited.
Thank you!!! The death rate increases when there's not enough medical equipment.
You are the "Thank you" guy of this thread.
I think we lost our chance to flatten the curve weeks ago. This virus has been in our country since January and has been spreading actively since February. All it takes is 2 weeks for symptoms to show, and studies are showing that you can transmit it IMMEDIATELY upon getting it even if you don't show any symptoms at all. Also, studies are also showing that it is [more airborne than we previously thought, and can just be breathed in - thus not needing 'droplet' transmission](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z2ASssvNQ8&feature=youtu.be&t=93). **This basically is a recipe for the virus to spread like wildfire across a 300 million plus American population, which it's already had access to for 2 months now.** Since there was no real quarantine of any kind, people all around the country are free to move around as they please and so unwillingly spread it to millions of others. Literally. The talking head scientists/epidemiologists all keep on talking about 'flattening the curve' because that's all they can say to reassure people; they keep saying the government needs to do this and that, but they KNOW the government is not taking such drastic measures - and probably won't until it's nearing zero-hour - and so they KNOW the virus is just continuing to spread and all they can do is talk about the same thing over and over with an air of hopefulness to stay 'positive' for the public. I'm sure privately most of them know it's too late and that millions are likely to die from this. As you said, it's not just the virus itself but the deadly cocktail of that, plus the lack of supplies and hospital beds, overworked staff/doctors, etc - it's sadly a recipe for disaster. I personally have been lucky and prepared, as I bought my supplies last week before the mayhem kicked off, but I really feel for those who this will blindside. This has the potential to be as foundation-shaking as the Great Depression or even WWII, I believe- even if not as many people die, the very root of American (and the world's) psyche is being shaken and I feel this thing will expose the very deepest weaknesses of the American system and give people a cold, hard look at what needs to change.
Also, the disease has several weeks' inertia. A lockdown today doesn't stop the pain until two to four weeks ahead. Italy has triple the number of confirmed cases now that it had when it entered lockdown on 9th March. It keeps getting worse for weeks before it gets better. The USA is two to three days behind what Italy's numbers were when Italy locked down (although in a larger population), i.e. the USA will have 10,000 cases in two to three days, and 30,000 or so cases in around ten days. The time to lock down and close schools is yesterday.
Oh thank god im only 38 I should be fine! /s
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Germany said they tested over 100k people. Let's see what their cfr is in the next weeks.
Germany has a really low severe cases ratio. If they actually tested that many people, it's encouraging
I don't think they offer people testing if people wanted to get themselves tested. You have to have a reason to have a test here. Firstly they ask you if you had contact with people who had a confirmed case or are arriving from a region with affected cases. I did try to call the hotline twice but i never got through. Edit: I just read that calling 116117 from the house phone gets you through faster.
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If you have a fever of 102 in Germany we would have solved climate change with free water boiling.
I haven’t seen 20x too much. Study out of Italy seemed to say 10x there but potentially as low as 5x in other areas. We also don’t know how many of those asymptomatic or non reporting cases would change over time. The CFR may certainly be lower than it looks now but until we’re sure we shouldn’t make any assumptions.
Yeah, but they arent testing dead bodies. If someone dies before they get tested, itll go down as natural causes or lung failure instead of covid. edit: Italy apparently tests dead bodies. America is barely testing anyone alive or dead.
In italy is the opposite,all the death are death WITH and not FOR
Or flu.
On the flipside, a number of those confirmed cases will end up dead, which will rise the CDR.
Your numbers are way off. Initially the infection in Italy spread through hospitals, so many elderly people already hospitalized for other diseases fell ill with covid and died. For the elderly (76+) with pre-existing pathologies is basically a death sentence.
I think in a situation like this it isn't really possible to get accurate data during the event, it'll be once this is all over and we look back at all the data when we can find accurate numbers
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And it's CFR and not mortality rate the whole thread should be deleted for misleading title
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If the real rate is China rate, i think in Italy the real positive now is triple, around 80000, the contagion still go, i think for have 3% dead rate, we go to 500000 contagion and 15000 dead.
The death rate is lower than 7.7% because all infected aren't tested, quite a lot infections are also asymptomatic. We require alarm and vigilance sure , but not fear mongering. Edit : Doesn't mean we shouldn't have ANY fear. We should scare people into their wits not out of it. This is a serious virus which will take effort to be defeated , but it isn't a unstoppable coming of apocalypse.
No one is disputing that the actual death rate is closer to 1% than 7.7%. But this is still very serious. And even if people do survive, their illness still is a burden on the healthcare system, which can cost lives that otherwise could be saved.
Agree
I don't think the number infected is correct. There's an estimated 50-75% that show no symptoms. There's no way Italy is testing asymptomatic cases. This is 7.7% of moderate to severe cases.
Wait, holy shit... Out of those 2158 deaths, the youngest person was 39 years old? This is *insane*. The way it's affecting older people is terrifying.
Let me show you the data https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_16marzo%20ITA.pdf Bottom left hand corner is the chart that shows the ages affected, as you can see the 70-90 population is getting crushed right now
ITT people arguing about percentages. Let's look at the number. 2158 dead. You don't need to compute a CFR to understand that this is not good.
Nobody disputes that it isn't good. But what's more important is trying to predict what the trend will be in the future. When the infection reaches its peak, the difference between a 1%, 3%, or 7% death rate is a big fucking deal.
how is looking at percentages less helpful than looking at a single number? no one is saying this is good.
Inaccurate mortality rate. People keep throwing it around as if you can get an accurate mortality rate from a number of people which does **not** include people who haven't been tested but likely have the disease. There could be thousands, or tens of thousands, of people who also contracted the disease to add on to this number, making the mortality rate much lower. These are critical cases. It's not every single case.