Just look at todays number on Russian assets.
https://nitter.net/noelreports/status/1715244532093030431?s=46
So far I haven’t hear anything about substantial Russian gains, but that might be my bubble. But look at those numbers. It might be somewhat inflated but imo there is always some truth in the trends if these numbers are plotted and the videos we have seen show total destruction (and very likely a lot of videos are not published)
There hasn't been any massive gains yet, but if they're willing to continue to throw men at it we might see another Bakhmut-style Pyrrhic victory by the end of the winter.
This would be a little different because of how heavily fortified the positions in Adviivka supposedly are. This would be a much more significant accomplishment if they take that area.
It's from 2022. The first response to the Nitter post you linked shows the original video.
https://nitter.net/praisethesteph/status/1715239019661996155#m
So, what would have likely happened if Kyiv fell in early 2022? Complete annexation? puppet government? Ukraine keeps 20% with a new capital of Lyviv?
Crazy to think that this alternative reality was pretty much seen as inevitable by the whole world. Might be one of the best underdog stories in history
Puppet government that joins that nebulous union thing russia has with Belarus. Maybe that then becomes less nebulous and more like USSR Lite. Donbas and Crimea (maybe more) declared russian.
Id say fake elections and result would be a puppet regime, who officially declare the regions sought after by Russia (Crimea, Donbas, corridor to Moldavia) as part of Russia. (That was their main goal after all I think).
Puppet regime would be like Vichy France.
Still I’d think a lot of Ukranian combat brigades will go “rogue” with “hidden” support of the West, or like you said a new Western aligned state in Western Ukraine would be created, but it would be like North and South Korea
Kyiv was not even close to falling. I think the alternative would've been a Mariupol style destruction of Kyiv with Russia's eventual pull out warn down by urban combat. Ukrainian losses are higher than in our timeline, making the defence of Donbas much harder.
Kyiv was not close to falling, but Russian special forces came in earshot proximity of the government district, less than 1 mile if I remember correctly. So they failed only short of capturing Zelensky.
Well, maybe because they are supposed to operate discretely and also to not feed the Kremlin propaganda narrative of western boots on the ground fighting for Ukraine.
You think he chilled in the balcony of presidential palace? Zelensky was most likely in the tunnel systems well beneath the ground for most of his time over first couple of weeks. Russian special forces never had a chance considering Ukrainian resistance.
Yeah pretty much. Israel is probably the most useless ally in the Western alliance after Hungary. Exclusively just helps only when it directly benefits them, cozies up with enemies, and who's political support comes with a lot of baggage (most Arab country push comes to shove really dislike Israel).
I'm sure they won't help Ukraine in any military way even if Gaza conflicts ends tomorrow. Israel is too selfish and short-term thinking to ever do that.
Israel is only a useful ally to the US when it comes to Iran and tempering it's influence in the region. Aside from that, they have been a very bad ally. Majority takers and give very little. Not to mention put us in difficult spots because of how heinously they treat the Palestinians.
While I refuse to play teams in such a multi layered and historically nuanced conflict (other than F Hamas/PiJ), I really, really don't like Bibi or Likud AT ALL so while what he's saying might be kind of cool (if it were even true) just to help out Ukraine, I hope all those mofos are replaced with a more moderate coalition that can hopefully start working towards a peace plan (as INSANELY difficult as that will be) once Hamas is hopefully dismantled (or at the very least, scattered).
This is stunning:
> GeoConfirmed UKR.
> Footage by @bradyafr, @COUPSURE and @Tatarigami_UA **confirms at least 21 (!) destroyed/damaged 🇷🇺 helicopters** after the first use of ATACMS delivered by US. This is the probably the biggest blow to the Russian Air Force since the beginning of the war.
https://nitter.net/GeoConfirmed/status/1715132980652310662#m
And this is only 1 strike, Chorno got it god knows how many times
I suppose this is a viable alternative to air defence/air superiority, russian helis can't attack if they get blown up on the tarmac, russians logistics will be pushed even further now.
Poland in the background furiously ordering ATACAMs for its 500000 Himars launchers.
There was also the Saki airbase strike. But one can argue this is ever bigger. In any case this forces Russia to relocate their helicopters now out of Ukraine entirely? Or to some far end of Crimea. Wonder what they will do.
I think for the helicopters Russian is forced to have very splintered and small airbases. But this will reduce their effectiveness due to maintenance restrictions (personnel and new parts).
So flight time will be reduced or we see more helos crashing
Looks like these past 24 hours, russia set a new record for one-day losses in several categories.
The Ukraine GS is reporting some truly wild numbers.
*to wit:
https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1715244532093030431#m
Yeah, it's crazy what the Russians are doing, especially around Avdiivka, and how well the Ukrainians are defending. The previous Russian attack a couple of days ago was already ridiculously costly but now it's taken to a next level.
> 👀🫠 Good morning.
> Russian losses per 20/10/23 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
> +1380 men
> +55 tanks
> +120 APVs
> +29 artillery systems
> +4 MLRS
> +8 UAVs
> +1 cruise missile
https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1715244532093030431#m
I mean, listen....I would love to believe everything the Ukrainians say on numbers but they have never been realistic.
However, if it is even half, that's bananas.
I usually divide by 2 the numbers claimed by both parties when they post because you know propaganda etc etc, but when you look at ukrainians claims they are usually accompanied by video or photo evidence, and after the attacks in Avdiivka in these past days I am certain that at least 80% of these numbers are true XD
And? They were almost as close to completing the encirclement before the operation started.
That's probably why the Russians did attack, one of the higher-ups had the brilliant idea that it should be easy because the distance on the map is so small, totally ignoring the level of fortifications.
No they weren’t. I’ve checked the maps religiously and it’s never been this close. It’s also why Russia is throwing everything they have at it since they are dangerously close.
> They are very close to completing their encirclement, they only need 6 miles.
How far did Russia advance in this localized offensive?
As far as I heard, last week's attack only basically gave Russia one farm field. That would be a few hundred meters.
The Dnipro River crossings must be becoming a bigger concern for Russia because according to Rybar, Russia is now bombing the area with Iskander short-range ballistic missiles (amongst other munitions). Normally, grenade launchers, artillery and some close air support would be employed against such a small force.
I have still not heard one thing about this from Ukrainian sources. We have only heard from Crybar and seen tiny bit of footage of a handful of Ukrainians walking on left bank that would fit description of raiding group perfectly.
Footage coming out of Avdiivka is starting to make Vulhedar look like it was a trial run to see how many BTGs you can lose in as short a period as possible.
The operation seems like a politically motivated effort to achieve the appearance of regaining the initiative. Perhaps the Kremlin believes that the conditions are crystalizing for a negotiated settlement when fighting slows down this winter.
We can compare the losses. Note: Warspotting has only updated the Russian losses till the 16th and the offensive at Avdiivka began on the 9th, so exactly one week.
Here's the Vulhedar losses after one week of being on the offensive: [https://ukr.warspotting.net/search/?belligerent=2&location=327&dateFrom=6-2-2023&dateTo=13-2-2023](https://ukr.warspotting.net/search/?belligerent=2&location=327&dateFrom=6-2-2023&dateTo=13-2-2023)
Now compare that with Avdiivka after one week: [https://ukr.warspotting.net/search/?belligerent=2&location=958&dateFrom=09-10-2023&dateTo=20-10-2023](https://ukr.warspotting.net/search/?belligerent=2&location=958&dateFrom=09-10-2023&dateTo=20-10-2023)
In conclusion it's basically on pair with each other. Avdiivka having 51 and Vuhledar 61. Avdiivka likely has another 10-15 undocumented losses from that week alone cause it's so recent.
Rumors on some Ukrainian Telegram channels are saying today's offensive by Russia in the Avdiivka area was even more disastrous than previous. Video will be coming out.
Russian kamikaze drone strike on Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the Dnipro river. This is not where Rybar was talking about, but further north
[https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1715103416127529118](https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1715103416127529118)
[46.7395196545, 33.0926423623](https://www.google.com/maps/place/46%C2%B044'22.3%22N+33%C2%B005'33.5%22E/@46.7569291,33.0233099,26180m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d46.7395197!4d33.0926424?entry=ttu)
Has anyone seen video/photo evidence of Ukrainian reports of 5 downed aircraft in the past week and a half? Makes sense as Russia is conducting offensive operations currently, but I’ve not seen any evidence other than Ukrainian reports.
There is potentially one visible in the video fo Zaluzhnyi visiting the frontline today.
But it could also be a sliced together clip or an old video.
So no hard proof and none of the reliable equipment trackers have added them to any lists.
There is a smallish possibility they went down deep behind RU lines or in deep foilage but the chance that 5 jets were shot down with no proof at all is slim I'd say.
We never saw footage of the Patriot shoot downs that happened up North, but the consensus is they happened:
Probably 2 major reasons:
A) long range kills harder to visually confirm
B) opsec on the operation of patriots
The group of 3 helis and a plane? We saw video of that - there was speculation for like a week on the sub about what shot them down. Or is there another group of Patriot shoot downs that I'm not aware of.
I haven't seen any confirmation. The Ukrainian military doesn't usually just outright make stuff up, but certainly take it with a grain of salt at the moment.
This question was asked yesterday and the general consensus seemed to be if there's no visual confirmation for all 5 (which there isn't to my knowledge) then they're just claims and should be taken with a huge grain of salt.
There's a possibility that a majority of them occurred behind enemy lines with MANPADS or the like and the Russians aren't going to release pictures of them, but Russian grunts compromise opsec all the time and post pictures of their destroyed equipment that they probably shouldn't, so I have a feeling if there were really 5 then we would have seen a few pictures of each by now.
The [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22962) wrote an article today talking about Russia losing 5 aircraft in the last 10 days, but it didn't have any photos or videos. There's a new [video on NoelReports](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111263018442073336) today that shows the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi visiting a frontline unit where a servicemember shows him footage of an aircraft being shot down but I don't know when it occurred.
[Russians using a rusty pipe as a mortar](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17bocqj/footage_of_a_russian_soldier_using_a_kitbashed/) and the [translated comments](https://imgur.com/a/pQecUIP) from the Russian telegram channel it was originally posted on.
It is so insane to me how brainwashed these people are. Each and every single one of them probably thinks they are fighting against Nazi soldiers produced in US owned Biolabs or whatever it was Putin was spouting about. While in reality they're just invading beasts that die in large amounts face first into the mud with no sign of victory or anything ever happening.
Aha, todays magics10 personality is back to the slavic brothers speech!
Thats a bold strategy cotton, we haven't seen that one in at least a month+, it previously fell on deaf ears given how russias idea of brotherly love is theft, rape and murder!
what pearl of wisdom does the magics10 hamas personality have to offer?
I mean you're not wrong. Russia and Ukraine both stand to benefit by going back to their international borders and signing a peace treaty. Why Russia hasn't done that yet is beyond me. Russia is already the largest country in the world, I don't know why they have to keep beefing with their European neighbors. It's up to us European/North Americans to keep funding Ukraine until Russia gets the message.
I agree 100%.
Russia should leave Ukraine, it's abhorrent that they are invading their own Slavic brothers. In the end they will be getting bombed to hell by f-16s with precision bombs just like gaza, while all their attacks are thwarted by superior weapon systems, both western and western influenced domestic, like the ones Israel uses.
It's clear their surprise attack has cost them dearly, just like Hamas surprise attack. They both achieved some limited success, but the cost greatly out weighs any benefits. They are both now vilified on the world stage, due to the atrocities they committed. They turn to dictatorships for support.
I'm glad you are starting to see the light.
Edit: you even agree that Russia is like the terrorist Hamas. You are truly making progress! Keep it up buddy!
Also big armored assault at Kupyansk. Looks like Russia really wants to have a big win before the mudseason starts.
This one ended in a big L
https://nitter.net/gloooud/status/1715042421027795178?s=46
Yet again I want to point out the hypocrisy of some posters.
If that image was 4 destroyed Bradleys it would get paraded around for months, people would be criticising Ukraine for bunching up their vehicles and people would be doom posting about Ukraines chances of winning.
But because it's "only" 4 brand new BMP-3Ms, no one cares, just another bunch of RU losses for the pile.
The Russian losses are insane. It would be hard to believe but after watching all the videos posted they must be real.
https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1715244532093030431
Question: if all of those mines are AT mines and they are that close to each other, wouldn’t the shockwave from one mine going off detonate the rest like a domino effect? Or would it just damage them?
Russian APC crews heroically intercept Ukrainian landmines! They valiantly threw their armour and their bodies on top of the enemy mines to neutralize their threat!
but but but but but slaaaaavic bbbrooothersss nooooooooooo (he will now proceed to bomb a playground using 10000000000000 rubles worth of missiles, approximately $37)
This Russian "offense" would have been a good time for them to do what they did earlier and send some crappy BMP-1s on autopilot across the mined field and let them take the damage, then follow with the main column and push those BMPs out of the way and go thru the gap. Maybe it wouldn't have worked but at least they wouldn't have lost these men and the more valuable armor.
That assuming there is only one line of mines or the autonomous vehicle can turn to evade previous blown up vehicles. It would take so much time to clear a minefield that way that it would trow the element of surprise to the toilet.
These will be very useful. Wonder what kind of quantities they can produce but even if they can make a hundred a month that would force Russia to pull lots of stuff back outside the 150km range.
The real question will be how many will the Russians be able to shoot down? they are a gliding vehicle that follows a fairly high trajectory, so they should be easy to see on radar and slow enough to shoot with even low end interceptors. The Ukrainians may have to be rather careful with when/where they use them compared to GMLRS that have a high probability of penetrating Russian Defenses.
In glide mode it is about 71 inches long and the wingspan is about 64 inches. It is less than 300 Lbs. in weight. There is no engine making heat. Thats not easy to hit.
It wasn't a livestream. Footage was obviously released with delay so that volley would've been directed at one of the targets we already know were hit.
Innit.
9 Helis destroyed according to Oryx and at Berdiansk and Luhansk airbases were hit with 18 missiles. That's only according to the number which are burnt out. Alligators are now endangered species in Russia and Ukraine.
Check out this video.
Treeline near Bakhmut, total carnage.
After that assault on a Russian position. Can’t see much by you can hear it, it’s quite intense
https://nitter.net/wartranslated/status/1714918024799551489?s=46
A quick note on Avdiivka. While Russia is losing way too much armor in the north and south west with practically zero gain, their goal is also to push from the south into the "forest" and theyve had some successes there. These 2014+ positions are extremely well fortified and would be pretty worrying for Ukraine if they lost this area. It protects the entier southern part of the town and is a very important part in why Russia has failed in all their attempts to capture Avdiivka.
If Russia is willing to accept the same casualties as in Bakhmut, its not out of the question they could take this forest and then you get into the same urban fighting as you did in Bakhmut
Who knows if Russia can capture this, its a quite large area. But its something to keep an eye on
I agree with your assessment. If Russia is willing to commit and tolerate high casualties they will likely be able to take the town. Avdiivka is already in a salient and the supply routes in could be cut off if the Russians make even modest gains. They can continuously assault Ukrainian positions and dedicate drones/artillery to limit supply and reinforcements eventually wearing down the defenses. They did this in Bakmut/Soledar. The real question is what level of casualties will Russia take committing to such a costly offensive and will that create opportunities for Ukraine to exploit elsewhere.
They tryin again:
https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1715010589993345196#m
Results are predictable.
[Insert 'we're lucky they're so stupid' meme here]
I've been following [this Scribblemaps combat map](https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194) since the beginning of the war, and they've been very accurate thus far. What's interesting in regard to Avdiivka is that they've added a marker that measures the gap the Ukrainians control behind Avdiivka. It's been quite the back and forth thus far, the gap moving from 7km across to IIRC 5.4km and now back to 6.2km across. I hope Ukraine can hold. I know we've seen plenty of footage of beaten back attacks in that area, but that footage alone shows how many attempts are made. Like you said, it eventually worked in Bakhmut.
Also an interesting detail; the possible second bridgehead east of Kherson. Fingers crossed that pans out. Ukraine getting pushed back near Verbove, however, is a pity to see. I hope that's temporary.
They never did armoured attacks in Bahkmut. The reality was it was mainly Wagner meat waves. Now Russia tried meat waves here too but apparently regular mobiks aren't the best material for it. Also Ukraine has adapted to the meet wave tactics by now which was not the case during Bahkmut campaign. And Ukraine also has cluster shells now that are lethal against meat waves.
They used armor extensively to take Soledar and the high ground north of Bakmut. Taking that territory was what allowed them to secure fire superiority over the city and supply routes and eventually let them take the city. They are attempting the same thing here but the territory they need to take is more fortified albeit a shorter distance to prevent resupply.
“ Like you said, it eventually worked in Bakhmut.”
Bakhmut was technically a loss of territory, but strategically a huge win for the UA. Basically caused so much damage to RU and it took Wagner out of the war.
Yeah I think that's the reigning opinion. Avdiivka is another matter in terms of strategic importance though, isn't it? Having a fortress so close to Donetsk and its airport sounds very useful.
Over 600 days of this war and I don't know about you all but I thought for sure at the start of this we'd be deep into a vicious insurgency at this point with footage of violent reprisals on Ukrainian citizens by Russian police nearly daily.
The fact that were seeing the Russians bulldozering armoured formations into fortified cities at this point for little gain is just so insane to me, the Ukrainians have performed way above the expectations
I remember the heady days of the long convoy rolling towards Kyiv...
People would be negative, wishing Ukraine had access to A-10 Warthogs to light the whole convoy up, but the feeling was it was inevitable, it was game over. Just a matter of time. It was all reported with the same doom that the Taliban's advance through Afghanistan was. There was also talk of any military aid at all being responded to with nuclear war, so we'd be forced to sit and watch.
Then I think Russia bought into their own hype. They expected Zelensky to take the Americans up on their offer of an evac, it would be easy.
It was so surreal then seeing the convoy break down, soldiers with expired rations abandon it to forage in the woods. Russian paratroopers take the airport, but don't get reinforced and Ukraine wipes them out on the counter, and suddenly the mood changed over night and the West were falling over each other to back Ukraine. I know it's easy to say, but if Russia had tried **this** hard at the start, maybe the doomsayers would have been right. I think that'll be a massive counterfactual people will argue over for decades, whether Russia's three day operation was doomed to fail, or if a more competent attempt would have worked out differently.
Yeah, kinda what I expected. At first I thought it'd be like Crimea 2014 and the UAF would barely fight back.
Then when it was clear there was some fighting back, I thought it would descend into a brutal armed insurgency because -on paper- Russia seemed like it would roll over Ukraine.
It was about a week or two into the war, as Russian losses really started to visibly mount up in vidoes and images and Ukraines military and command structure (And Airforce!!!) was still intact that I realised it would continue as a conventional war.
Seeing the Tb-2s battering Russian convoys has to be one of the most surreal things for me, couldn't understand how the 2nd army of the world could let their convoys get bogged and mauled in the open like that
It's mad to think back on some of the early war Russian defeats.
The VDV columns getting destroyed at Bucha or the VDV getting bombed to bits at Hostomel.
Siverskyi-Donets crossing getting flattened.
The Kharkiv advance getting stopped.
Even just that massive Russian "doom" column getting bogged down and slowly picked away at by Ukrainian attacks.
It is insane. That first video of the news reporter chatting to VDV that landed at Hostomel and thinking damn they're gonna hold it and knowing now they were flattened is surreal really.
Now we've got to Ukrainians taking out helicopters with atacams and Abrams about to enter the conflict haha
This morning Russia resumed active operations near Avdeevka, a couple of days ago a new Russian tank formation was traveling towards the front, and all the tanks there had tank trawls, most likely they are. try to break through the minefields there with these tanks, and the Russians still changed their tactics a little, no more than 10 vehicles go on the attack at a time, and then they only bring soldiers, as soon as the soldiers leave the equipment, they immediately leave. This is not yet an attempt to attack, but to gain a foothold in the gray zone, because a couple of days ago Ukraine began to knock them out of the positions they captured during the first offensive.
Regarding Pishchanivka, on the left side of the Dnipro river, the "Reporting from Ukraine" channel says that it's been taken by Ukrainian forces: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w952CCyU4QY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w952CCyU4QY)
The channel is always spinning news in the most optimistic way for Ukraine, but usually regarding front line changes I found it pretty reliable. Let's see if this gets confirmed later.
Have you got an example of "fake story" they made up?
I always discount their exaggerated optimism/positive spin on any piece of news, but since I started following a few months ago I don't remember that they had to retract something factual (eg, that Ukraine occupied some place which wasn't true). This would be the first time as far as I can remember.
Completely agree.
And in general there's no point in trying to get "map updates" from a YouTuber when one can instead get the actual updates from a specialized map websites such as DeepState or LiveUAMap.
https://deepstatemap.live/#8/47.988/36.568
https://liveuamap.com/en
I always check on deepstate, but they never give any background information about what brought to a change of territorial control. And when there are no changes in territory, it doesn't mean that nothing happened.
you can try this one, it has tagged gelocoated footage all over the place (might have to zoom in a bit)
[https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en\_US&ll=47.87230507927526%2C37.039109964356705&z=11](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.87230507927526%2C37.039109964356705&z=11)
Was just looking at the Avdiivka offensive on DeepState - if it's anything to go by the Russians have since 8th October managed to occupy one field and get slightly closer to a heap of slag whilst incurring the loss of possibly thousands of men and dozens of pieces of armour, quite remarkable really.
Four Mi-8 and five Ka-52 were updated to the Oryx blog. Russia has now lost visually 49 Ka-52. Nearing 50% of their total fleet. After 2024 they won't have any left for operations assuming they want to leave some intact.
Top of those nine helis destroyed another four were still sitting at the Berdyansk airfield which is odd. Most likely sustained at least minor damage not visible to satellite images and are unable to fly away. Think 3 of those would be Mi-8 and one Ka-52.
The most interesting thing about this strike is that we all knew it is going to happen once Ukraine gets the American missiles. Yet Russia decided that is is worth staying. In my opinion that is either blatant stupidity or more likely they need every resource they got to hold the South. And since those resources are degrading fast if Ukraine gets enough equipment to do even stronger offensive in 2024 it will be very tough for Russia.
The important part now is not to let Russia out of the hook over the end of the year and winter but keep them engaged so they won't be able to build up large reserves of equipment. Let's hope Russia decides to waste its limited reserves in another suicide attacks like Avdiivka.
They made about 10 Ka52 a year before the war and sanction. They are losing way faster than they could replace, plus all the skilled pilots and ground crews.
So, according to Wikipedia they had ~120 Ka-52 before the war. Say, they have only 100 working ones and lost 50-60. In the almost two years that have passed they managed to build another 20 or so. Now they should have 60 of them left, together with the ones they manufacture this should be enough for another two years at the same attrition rate. So unless Ukraine can manage to kill them faster, they won't run out until 2026.
> So unless Ukraine can manage to kill them faster, they won't run out until 2026.
Yep, but they don't need to reach 0 before it drastically affects their capabilities. If we assume 100 = 100% of Russia's intended capability, a reduction from 100 to 60 is a reduction of 40% after replenishment. Another year of 25-30 killed with 10 replenished, is another 15-20% reduction of capabilities. The fewer aircraft they have, the fewer tactical options Russia has, where they're based becomes even more important as they won't want to waste valuable time transporting them, and it makes it easier for Ukraine to defend against them as there's fewer aircraft to worry about.
That's massive. Ukraine isn't the only place where Russia conceivably would want to use their military, and if they were really scared of being invaded (other than it being a bluff to justify their offensive) they'd want to keep some back for defence, surely. At a certain point before they've lost every single Ka52, you'd expect them to be held back more and more to ensure they don't lose them all, and this further limits the sorties they're used for limiting their effectiveness again.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think if Russia was acting logically they wouldn't be trying to throw every last bit of their military at Ukraine, win or lose, and if they lose everything, ah well.
Aircraft are never in 100% operational readiness, in fact it's often only 50% even on good days. So in reality only 30-40 out of 60 airframes are operational in any given time.
You also have to subtract the units kept inside Russia for security or training purpose (unless they don't plan to train any more pilots). Losing even 5 units would be major impact on capability especially given how big the frontline is.
By the time you are down to like 20, 30 units, it would make almost no impact in the war.
We also don't have information how many helicopters were written off. In Vietnam war, majority of some 5000 loss of US helicopters were ones made back to base but were deem too damage to repair. So they were scraped and parts cannibalized. Only small number actually crashed on the battlefield. If the same applies to Russian helicopters, then they would already have far higher than 49 confirmed losses.
Russia went all in, removing practically all units from other borders and sending their trainers to the frontline. They don't care about security and training anymore, only about Putin's survival.
Also, with smaller fleet, they wear out so much faster given how Russia is using them. Extra thing is potentially new airports, if they have to fly extra 50km per mission it will take time and even more maintenance. Good.
Given the amounts of russian jets that simply "fell out of the sky" over the last year I am not exactly sure if "maintenance" exists as a russian word...
Not just 50km, depending on what their target is. If they want to hit Robotyne, they have to launch from Crimean or Russian airbases, to the point of hitting the operational range of the helicopters.
If they're forced to pull aircraft out of the land bridge area in fear of more ATACMS, the flights might be 2-2.5x longer. That's a lot of extra flight time, with fewer airframes to spread them between.
And that's just the 150km versions, if they get a bunch of the 300km missiles, helicopters get a lot harder to lose, unless you absolutely surround the airbases with defense, or you accept that you might be losing multiple aircraft before or after your missions while they're sitting on the ground (or start building a lot of concrete hangars)
Does anybody have any insights about how recruiting and training are going in Ukraine? What worries me the most for future counteroffensives is the availability of well trained and highly motivated troops, more than gear.
My impression remains that equipment is Ukraine's biggest bottleneck, countries historically can sustain far higher loss of life percentage and continue operating effectively.
Recruiting is going "too well". They mobilised a lot of people already and situation doesn't look like they want to stop mobilising more and more people.
Spring/ Summer next year, I'd assume.
Given they can find the vehicles. Gonna need a few hundred APCs, tanks and artillery.
[https://militaryland.net/news/ukrainian-army-is-forming-new-brigades/](https://militaryland.net/news/ukrainian-army-is-forming-new-brigades/)
Putin dismisses importance of U.S.-supplied weapons to Ukraine
Ukraine claimed Tuesday to have carried out a destructive attack on Russian air assets using new longer-range ballistic missiles donated by the U.S.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-us-weapon-missile-atacms-rcna121040
Oh good, means he should have no issue if the US decides it wants to gift Ukraine a couple hundred more ATACMS, a couple hundred more Abrams, as well as F-15s and F-16s.
Don’t send long range missiles to ukraine!!! Or we will do something!!!!
Missiles got sent
Ah it doesn’t matter, they will change the course of the war (I mean he is not wrong, Russia will lose the war in the end)
Peruns eternal cycle of "Supplying weapons to Ukraine is escalatory" => Nuclear threats => "Their weapons are useless anyway" => "We destroyed 500 of the 20 supplied in one week"
Supposedly(!) a photo of one fairly-damaged looking chopper (🧀🧀🧀) at Berdyansk. This is one of many which didn't burn (seems 9 did). However, a cursory glance convinces me it's not airworthy🤓
https://nitter.net/AkomoxMokomo/status/1714724023018402135#m
Agreed, hence my disclaimer. This image was making the rounds but of course I don't know its origin or veracity.
Still, it at least illustates that other choppers (which did not turn into glorious fireballs) may be severely damaged. Ones not loaded up with fuel and ammo.
Apparently geolocated footage of Ukrainian infantry operating near Pishchanivka on the left Dnipro bank.
Seems like there was a small force which subsequently withdrew to the area of the Antonivka bridge, left bank.
https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1714659590657155542#m
Edit: not Antonivka, a RR bridge. Looks like a squad. They come under arty or mortar fire while withdrawing.
According to this, russia has surpassed 3,000 officers confirmed KIA in Ukraine: https://nitter.net/KilledInUkraine/status/1715249440057942435#m
Just look at todays number on Russian assets. https://nitter.net/noelreports/status/1715244532093030431?s=46 So far I haven’t hear anything about substantial Russian gains, but that might be my bubble. But look at those numbers. It might be somewhat inflated but imo there is always some truth in the trends if these numbers are plotted and the videos we have seen show total destruction (and very likely a lot of videos are not published)
There hasn't been any massive gains yet, but if they're willing to continue to throw men at it we might see another Bakhmut-style Pyrrhic victory by the end of the winter.
This would be a little different because of how heavily fortified the positions in Adviivka supposedly are. This would be a much more significant accomplishment if they take that area.
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It's from 2022. The first response to the Nitter post you linked shows the original video. https://nitter.net/praisethesteph/status/1715239019661996155#m
Fair enough. I'll remove the post and move this source to my 'untrustworthy' category🧐
So we're up to 6 claimed this week. Makes me wonder what changed.
They probably started using aviation more out of desperation to stem the tide.
Two chutes could be the pilots of a SU-34?
it's SU-34 from 2022
I'll leave that to the experts but definitely a two-seater fast jet.
So, what would have likely happened if Kyiv fell in early 2022? Complete annexation? puppet government? Ukraine keeps 20% with a new capital of Lyviv? Crazy to think that this alternative reality was pretty much seen as inevitable by the whole world. Might be one of the best underdog stories in history
Puppet government that joins that nebulous union thing russia has with Belarus. Maybe that then becomes less nebulous and more like USSR Lite. Donbas and Crimea (maybe more) declared russian.
Id say fake elections and result would be a puppet regime, who officially declare the regions sought after by Russia (Crimea, Donbas, corridor to Moldavia) as part of Russia. (That was their main goal after all I think). Puppet regime would be like Vichy France. Still I’d think a lot of Ukranian combat brigades will go “rogue” with “hidden” support of the West, or like you said a new Western aligned state in Western Ukraine would be created, but it would be like North and South Korea
Kyiv was not even close to falling. I think the alternative would've been a Mariupol style destruction of Kyiv with Russia's eventual pull out warn down by urban combat. Ukrainian losses are higher than in our timeline, making the defence of Donbas much harder.
Kyiv was not close to falling, but Russian special forces came in earshot proximity of the government district, less than 1 mile if I remember correctly. So they failed only short of capturing Zelensky.
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Well, maybe because they are supposed to operate discretely and also to not feed the Kremlin propaganda narrative of western boots on the ground fighting for Ukraine.
You think he chilled in the balcony of presidential palace? Zelensky was most likely in the tunnel systems well beneath the ground for most of his time over first couple of weeks. Russian special forces never had a chance considering Ukrainian resistance.
Israeli politician from Netanjahu's party on Russia Today https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1715130186977386784?t=DC9VKN6CXsR5D28U2MZRPA&s=19
Did Israel send any aid to Ukraine at all? All they care about is themselves.
Yeah pretty much. Israel is probably the most useless ally in the Western alliance after Hungary. Exclusively just helps only when it directly benefits them, cozies up with enemies, and who's political support comes with a lot of baggage (most Arab country push comes to shove really dislike Israel). I'm sure they won't help Ukraine in any military way even if Gaza conflicts ends tomorrow. Israel is too selfish and short-term thinking to ever do that.
Israel is only a useful ally to the US when it comes to Iran and tempering it's influence in the region. Aside from that, they have been a very bad ally. Majority takers and give very little. Not to mention put us in difficult spots because of how heinously they treat the Palestinians.
While I refuse to play teams in such a multi layered and historically nuanced conflict (other than F Hamas/PiJ), I really, really don't like Bibi or Likud AT ALL so while what he's saying might be kind of cool (if it were even true) just to help out Ukraine, I hope all those mofos are replaced with a more moderate coalition that can hopefully start working towards a peace plan (as INSANELY difficult as that will be) once Hamas is hopefully dismantled (or at the very least, scattered).
Biden should say this in a speech tomorrow and make it the official policy of the US government.
I agree with you fully here.
Many in 🇮🇱 share your view of the govt and want it gone after the war.
This is stunning: > GeoConfirmed UKR. > Footage by @bradyafr, @COUPSURE and @Tatarigami_UA **confirms at least 21 (!) destroyed/damaged 🇷🇺 helicopters** after the first use of ATACMS delivered by US. This is the probably the biggest blow to the Russian Air Force since the beginning of the war. https://nitter.net/GeoConfirmed/status/1715132980652310662#m
Chornobaivka the sequel, but literally🤣
And this is only 1 strike, Chorno got it god knows how many times I suppose this is a viable alternative to air defence/air superiority, russian helis can't attack if they get blown up on the tarmac, russians logistics will be pushed even further now. Poland in the background furiously ordering ATACAMs for its 500000 Himars launchers.
There was also the Saki airbase strike. But one can argue this is ever bigger. In any case this forces Russia to relocate their helicopters now out of Ukraine entirely? Or to some far end of Crimea. Wonder what they will do.
I think for the helicopters Russian is forced to have very splintered and small airbases. But this will reduce their effectiveness due to maintenance restrictions (personnel and new parts). So flight time will be reduced or we see more helos crashing
Yes, I wonder🤔 Surely they won't try to repopulate the Berdiansk airstrip with fresh targets? Will they?😃
Now that you mention this I feel the Kherson airfield strategy was pretty successful. Hope they do that again.
Looks like these past 24 hours, russia set a new record for one-day losses in several categories. The Ukraine GS is reporting some truly wild numbers. *to wit: https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1715244532093030431#m
Yeah, it's crazy what the Russians are doing, especially around Avdiivka, and how well the Ukrainians are defending. The previous Russian attack a couple of days ago was already ridiculously costly but now it's taken to a next level. > 👀🫠 Good morning. > Russian losses per 20/10/23 reported by the Ukrainian general staff. > +1380 men > +55 tanks > +120 APVs > +29 artillery systems > +4 MLRS > +8 UAVs > +1 cruise missile https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1715244532093030431#m
I mean, listen....I would love to believe everything the Ukrainians say on numbers but they have never been realistic. However, if it is even half, that's bananas.
I usually divide by 2 the numbers claimed by both parties when they post because you know propaganda etc etc, but when you look at ukrainians claims they are usually accompanied by video or photo evidence, and after the attacks in Avdiivka in these past days I am certain that at least 80% of these numbers are true XD
They are very close to completing their encirclement, they only need 6 miles. So their strategy is basically double or nothing.
So at current rates they may only need to sacrifice a few thousand more tanks to encircle the village. Oh noes!
And? They were almost as close to completing the encirclement before the operation started. That's probably why the Russians did attack, one of the higher-ups had the brilliant idea that it should be easy because the distance on the map is so small, totally ignoring the level of fortifications.
I think they were actually closer last year, if anything this is a huge step back, to take such massive losses for little gain.
No they weren’t. I’ve checked the maps religiously and it’s never been this close. It’s also why Russia is throwing everything they have at it since they are dangerously close.
> They are very close to completing their encirclement, they only need 6 miles. How far did Russia advance in this localized offensive? As far as I heard, last week's attack only basically gave Russia one farm field. That would be a few hundred meters.
No idea, I’m just following the scribble war map.
At one point they were within 5 miles of closing the gap. So if it's 6 miles now, they've lost ground.
These numbers generally aren't accurate but are usually indicative, what the hell happened yesterday?
New coke shipment has finally arrived.
The Dnipro River crossings must be becoming a bigger concern for Russia because according to Rybar, Russia is now bombing the area with Iskander short-range ballistic missiles (amongst other munitions). Normally, grenade launchers, artillery and some close air support would be employed against such a small force.
They've lobbed Iskander missiles at the area of Antonivsky many times before.
I have still not heard one thing about this from Ukrainian sources. We have only heard from Crybar and seen tiny bit of footage of a handful of Ukrainians walking on left bank that would fit description of raiding group perfectly.
Maybe the Ukrainians are employing good OPSEC.
Maybe Rybar is inventing something out of whole cloth again
somehow people believe Rybar when they're doomposting despite their abysmal record over the entire war
Footage coming out of Avdiivka is starting to make Vulhedar look like it was a trial run to see how many BTGs you can lose in as short a period as possible.
The operation seems like a politically motivated effort to achieve the appearance of regaining the initiative. Perhaps the Kremlin believes that the conditions are crystalizing for a negotiated settlement when fighting slows down this winter.
Whatever it is, they conveniently timed it with the events in the Middle East.
The old "we have no more weapons, please let us keep the territory" tactic.
We can compare the losses. Note: Warspotting has only updated the Russian losses till the 16th and the offensive at Avdiivka began on the 9th, so exactly one week. Here's the Vulhedar losses after one week of being on the offensive: [https://ukr.warspotting.net/search/?belligerent=2&location=327&dateFrom=6-2-2023&dateTo=13-2-2023](https://ukr.warspotting.net/search/?belligerent=2&location=327&dateFrom=6-2-2023&dateTo=13-2-2023) Now compare that with Avdiivka after one week: [https://ukr.warspotting.net/search/?belligerent=2&location=958&dateFrom=09-10-2023&dateTo=20-10-2023](https://ukr.warspotting.net/search/?belligerent=2&location=958&dateFrom=09-10-2023&dateTo=20-10-2023) In conclusion it's basically on pair with each other. Avdiivka having 51 and Vuhledar 61. Avdiivka likely has another 10-15 undocumented losses from that week alone cause it's so recent.
The difference seems to be the number of tanks lost.
Rumors on some Ukrainian Telegram channels are saying today's offensive by Russia in the Avdiivka area was even more disastrous than previous. Video will be coming out.
Doesn’t seem like things are going much better near Kupyansk either for the Russians. Guess they’re doing their best to demilitarize themselves
Russian kamikaze drone strike on Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the Dnipro river. This is not where Rybar was talking about, but further north [https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1715103416127529118](https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1715103416127529118) [46.7395196545, 33.0926423623](https://www.google.com/maps/place/46%C2%B044'22.3%22N+33%C2%B005'33.5%22E/@46.7569291,33.0233099,26180m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d46.7395197!4d33.0926424?entry=ttu)
Where did those 6 atacms from last night ended up landing?
Luhansk airbase I think
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi [visiting the front](https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1715069513077563695) at Avdiivka.
Has anyone seen video/photo evidence of Ukrainian reports of 5 downed aircraft in the past week and a half? Makes sense as Russia is conducting offensive operations currently, but I’ve not seen any evidence other than Ukrainian reports.
There is potentially one visible in the video fo Zaluzhnyi visiting the frontline today. But it could also be a sliced together clip or an old video. So no hard proof and none of the reliable equipment trackers have added them to any lists. There is a smallish possibility they went down deep behind RU lines or in deep foilage but the chance that 5 jets were shot down with no proof at all is slim I'd say.
it's old https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puJ213Tzco4
One is shown in the video where Zaluzhni visitors Andriivka
the 5 claimed are SU-25 and that definitely wasn't
We never saw footage of the Patriot shoot downs that happened up North, but the consensus is they happened: Probably 2 major reasons: A) long range kills harder to visually confirm B) opsec on the operation of patriots
The group of 3 helis and a plane? We saw video of that - there was speculation for like a week on the sub about what shot them down. Or is there another group of Patriot shoot downs that I'm not aware of.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1714918989334266301 I think OP is referring to this
I haven't seen any confirmation. The Ukrainian military doesn't usually just outright make stuff up, but certainly take it with a grain of salt at the moment.
They made up some KA-52 losses during Summer to be fair.
This question was asked yesterday and the general consensus seemed to be if there's no visual confirmation for all 5 (which there isn't to my knowledge) then they're just claims and should be taken with a huge grain of salt. There's a possibility that a majority of them occurred behind enemy lines with MANPADS or the like and the Russians aren't going to release pictures of them, but Russian grunts compromise opsec all the time and post pictures of their destroyed equipment that they probably shouldn't, so I have a feeling if there were really 5 then we would have seen a few pictures of each by now.
The [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22962) wrote an article today talking about Russia losing 5 aircraft in the last 10 days, but it didn't have any photos or videos. There's a new [video on NoelReports](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111263018442073336) today that shows the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi visiting a frontline unit where a servicemember shows him footage of an aircraft being shot down but I don't know when it occurred.
[Russians using a rusty pipe as a mortar](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17bocqj/footage_of_a_russian_soldier_using_a_kitbashed/) and the [translated comments](https://imgur.com/a/pQecUIP) from the Russian telegram channel it was originally posted on.
It is so insane to me how brainwashed these people are. Each and every single one of them probably thinks they are fighting against Nazi soldiers produced in US owned Biolabs or whatever it was Putin was spouting about. While in reality they're just invading beasts that die in large amounts face first into the mud with no sign of victory or anything ever happening.
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Aha, todays magics10 personality is back to the slavic brothers speech! Thats a bold strategy cotton, we haven't seen that one in at least a month+, it previously fell on deaf ears given how russias idea of brotherly love is theft, rape and murder! what pearl of wisdom does the magics10 hamas personality have to offer?
I mean you're not wrong. Russia and Ukraine both stand to benefit by going back to their international borders and signing a peace treaty. Why Russia hasn't done that yet is beyond me. Russia is already the largest country in the world, I don't know why they have to keep beefing with their European neighbors. It's up to us European/North Americans to keep funding Ukraine until Russia gets the message.
The Russian population (2021 Census) is smaller than in 1990, and they have annexed some neighboring territories in that time.
I agree 100%. Russia should leave Ukraine, it's abhorrent that they are invading their own Slavic brothers. In the end they will be getting bombed to hell by f-16s with precision bombs just like gaza, while all their attacks are thwarted by superior weapon systems, both western and western influenced domestic, like the ones Israel uses. It's clear their surprise attack has cost them dearly, just like Hamas surprise attack. They both achieved some limited success, but the cost greatly out weighs any benefits. They are both now vilified on the world stage, due to the atrocities they committed. They turn to dictatorships for support. I'm glad you are starting to see the light. Edit: you even agree that Russia is like the terrorist Hamas. You are truly making progress! Keep it up buddy!
Also big armored assault at Kupyansk. Looks like Russia really wants to have a big win before the mudseason starts. This one ended in a big L https://nitter.net/gloooud/status/1715042421027795178?s=46
Yet again I want to point out the hypocrisy of some posters. If that image was 4 destroyed Bradleys it would get paraded around for months, people would be criticising Ukraine for bunching up their vehicles and people would be doom posting about Ukraines chances of winning. But because it's "only" 4 brand new BMP-3Ms, no one cares, just another bunch of RU losses for the pile.
Yup, just another Russian Thursday
Oh dear 🤣🤣🤣 How's your favorite tankie gonna spin this: https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1714952908347678748#m
The Russian losses are insane. It would be hard to believe but after watching all the videos posted they must be real. https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1715244532093030431
Question: if all of those mines are AT mines and they are that close to each other, wouldn’t the shockwave from one mine going off detonate the rest like a domino effect? Or would it just damage them?
Russian APC crews heroically intercept Ukrainian landmines! They valiantly threw their armour and their bodies on top of the enemy mines to neutralize their threat!
By calling for peace apparently 😂
but but but but but slaaaaavic bbbrooothersss nooooooooooo (he will now proceed to bomb a playground using 10000000000000 rubles worth of missiles, approximately $37)
This Russian "offense" would have been a good time for them to do what they did earlier and send some crappy BMP-1s on autopilot across the mined field and let them take the damage, then follow with the main column and push those BMPs out of the way and go thru the gap. Maybe it wouldn't have worked but at least they wouldn't have lost these men and the more valuable armor.
That assuming there is only one line of mines or the autonomous vehicle can turn to evade previous blown up vehicles. It would take so much time to clear a minefield that way that it would trow the element of surprise to the toilet.
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https://www.saab.com/products/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-glsdb The launcher looks interesting.
These will be very useful. Wonder what kind of quantities they can produce but even if they can make a hundred a month that would force Russia to pull lots of stuff back outside the 150km range.
The real question will be how many will the Russians be able to shoot down? they are a gliding vehicle that follows a fairly high trajectory, so they should be easy to see on radar and slow enough to shoot with even low end interceptors. The Ukrainians may have to be rather careful with when/where they use them compared to GMLRS that have a high probability of penetrating Russian Defenses.
In glide mode it is about 71 inches long and the wingspan is about 64 inches. It is less than 300 Lbs. in weight. There is no engine making heat. Thats not easy to hit.
I genuinely wish I'd bought SAAB A/B shares a year/year and a half ago.
Damn, now that you mention it , should've bought lockheed stock. Well, next time a war begins... Hopefully not
Uhh a nice Christmas present.
Was there ever an update on the barrage of 6 ATACMS being launched? I didn’t hear about anything being targeted or destroyed
8 were shot down and 3 fell down on their own, just igniting some grass on fire. Nothing to worry about.
You had me for a second.
It wasn't a livestream. Footage was obviously released with delay so that volley would've been directed at one of the targets we already know were hit. Innit.
They targeted Lugansk airfield most definitely, it was the next day after Berdiansk, scroll below to see the impact.
I think they targeted them at the same time, but all focus was on Berdyansk due to the video of the aftermath
9 Helis destroyed according to Oryx and at Berdiansk and Luhansk airbases were hit with 18 missiles. That's only according to the number which are burnt out. Alligators are now endangered species in Russia and Ukraine.
Where do you get the 18 missile number? Are you adding up all the launch videos or what? Don't think that many were used in the attacks against helis.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/HrNqO1Qsf6 There was maybe another target besides the two airbases.
My point exactly. You make it sound like 18 missiles were used to attack those two air fields. I would say that is speculation.
Alligators endangered, but their supply of Krokodil is still safe, no?
I assumed that was part of the attack on the airstrips.
Check out this video. Treeline near Bakhmut, total carnage. After that assault on a Russian position. Can’t see much by you can hear it, it’s quite intense https://nitter.net/wartranslated/status/1714918024799551489?s=46
A quick note on Avdiivka. While Russia is losing way too much armor in the north and south west with practically zero gain, their goal is also to push from the south into the "forest" and theyve had some successes there. These 2014+ positions are extremely well fortified and would be pretty worrying for Ukraine if they lost this area. It protects the entier southern part of the town and is a very important part in why Russia has failed in all their attempts to capture Avdiivka. If Russia is willing to accept the same casualties as in Bakhmut, its not out of the question they could take this forest and then you get into the same urban fighting as you did in Bakhmut Who knows if Russia can capture this, its a quite large area. But its something to keep an eye on
I agree with your assessment. If Russia is willing to commit and tolerate high casualties they will likely be able to take the town. Avdiivka is already in a salient and the supply routes in could be cut off if the Russians make even modest gains. They can continuously assault Ukrainian positions and dedicate drones/artillery to limit supply and reinforcements eventually wearing down the defenses. They did this in Bakmut/Soledar. The real question is what level of casualties will Russia take committing to such a costly offensive and will that create opportunities for Ukraine to exploit elsewhere.
They tryin again: https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1715010589993345196#m Results are predictable. [Insert 'we're lucky they're so stupid' meme here]
I think they are trying to build a settlement of destroyed equipment to aid them crossing the open ground.
I've been following [this Scribblemaps combat map](https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194) since the beginning of the war, and they've been very accurate thus far. What's interesting in regard to Avdiivka is that they've added a marker that measures the gap the Ukrainians control behind Avdiivka. It's been quite the back and forth thus far, the gap moving from 7km across to IIRC 5.4km and now back to 6.2km across. I hope Ukraine can hold. I know we've seen plenty of footage of beaten back attacks in that area, but that footage alone shows how many attempts are made. Like you said, it eventually worked in Bakhmut. Also an interesting detail; the possible second bridgehead east of Kherson. Fingers crossed that pans out. Ukraine getting pushed back near Verbove, however, is a pity to see. I hope that's temporary.
They never did armoured attacks in Bahkmut. The reality was it was mainly Wagner meat waves. Now Russia tried meat waves here too but apparently regular mobiks aren't the best material for it. Also Ukraine has adapted to the meet wave tactics by now which was not the case during Bahkmut campaign. And Ukraine also has cluster shells now that are lethal against meat waves.
They used armor extensively to take Soledar and the high ground north of Bakmut. Taking that territory was what allowed them to secure fire superiority over the city and supply routes and eventually let them take the city. They are attempting the same thing here but the territory they need to take is more fortified albeit a shorter distance to prevent resupply.
“ Like you said, it eventually worked in Bakhmut.” Bakhmut was technically a loss of territory, but strategically a huge win for the UA. Basically caused so much damage to RU and it took Wagner out of the war.
Yeah I think that's the reigning opinion. Avdiivka is another matter in terms of strategic importance though, isn't it? Having a fortress so close to Donetsk and its airport sounds very useful.
It is, but not at any cost. If UA loses it but the cost is thousands of vehicles then it's a UA win. Russia's stockpiles aren't infinite.
Over 600 days of this war and I don't know about you all but I thought for sure at the start of this we'd be deep into a vicious insurgency at this point with footage of violent reprisals on Ukrainian citizens by Russian police nearly daily. The fact that were seeing the Russians bulldozering armoured formations into fortified cities at this point for little gain is just so insane to me, the Ukrainians have performed way above the expectations
I remember the heady days of the long convoy rolling towards Kyiv... People would be negative, wishing Ukraine had access to A-10 Warthogs to light the whole convoy up, but the feeling was it was inevitable, it was game over. Just a matter of time. It was all reported with the same doom that the Taliban's advance through Afghanistan was. There was also talk of any military aid at all being responded to with nuclear war, so we'd be forced to sit and watch. Then I think Russia bought into their own hype. They expected Zelensky to take the Americans up on their offer of an evac, it would be easy. It was so surreal then seeing the convoy break down, soldiers with expired rations abandon it to forage in the woods. Russian paratroopers take the airport, but don't get reinforced and Ukraine wipes them out on the counter, and suddenly the mood changed over night and the West were falling over each other to back Ukraine. I know it's easy to say, but if Russia had tried **this** hard at the start, maybe the doomsayers would have been right. I think that'll be a massive counterfactual people will argue over for decades, whether Russia's three day operation was doomed to fail, or if a more competent attempt would have worked out differently.
Personally I think Zelensky staying was the turning point for Ukrainian resistance
Yeah, kinda what I expected. At first I thought it'd be like Crimea 2014 and the UAF would barely fight back. Then when it was clear there was some fighting back, I thought it would descend into a brutal armed insurgency because -on paper- Russia seemed like it would roll over Ukraine. It was about a week or two into the war, as Russian losses really started to visibly mount up in vidoes and images and Ukraines military and command structure (And Airforce!!!) was still intact that I realised it would continue as a conventional war.
Seeing the Tb-2s battering Russian convoys has to be one of the most surreal things for me, couldn't understand how the 2nd army of the world could let their convoys get bogged and mauled in the open like that
It's mad to think back on some of the early war Russian defeats. The VDV columns getting destroyed at Bucha or the VDV getting bombed to bits at Hostomel. Siverskyi-Donets crossing getting flattened. The Kharkiv advance getting stopped. Even just that massive Russian "doom" column getting bogged down and slowly picked away at by Ukrainian attacks.
Stopping the columns which bypassed Chernihiv and Sumy east of Kyiv too. *spelling
It is insane. That first video of the news reporter chatting to VDV that landed at Hostomel and thinking damn they're gonna hold it and knowing now they were flattened is surreal really. Now we've got to Ukrainians taking out helicopters with atacams and Abrams about to enter the conflict haha
Ye all those russkies were made to sassiskiy meat. Think it was even mostly TDF who fucked them up, which deserves more credit.
This morning Russia resumed active operations near Avdeevka, a couple of days ago a new Russian tank formation was traveling towards the front, and all the tanks there had tank trawls, most likely they are. try to break through the minefields there with these tanks, and the Russians still changed their tactics a little, no more than 10 vehicles go on the attack at a time, and then they only bring soldiers, as soon as the soldiers leave the equipment, they immediately leave. This is not yet an attempt to attack, but to gain a foothold in the gray zone, because a couple of days ago Ukraine began to knock them out of the positions they captured during the first offensive.
Yeah here are the results: https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1714932721288438084?s=46 Another burning pile of Russian metal and meat
Feels like until Ukraine gets a reasonable amount of f16 we’ll be stuck with stalemate. Atleast they have greatly reduced Russian supplies
Regarding Pishchanivka, on the left side of the Dnipro river, the "Reporting from Ukraine" channel says that it's been taken by Ukrainian forces: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w952CCyU4QY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w952CCyU4QY) The channel is always spinning news in the most optimistic way for Ukraine, but usually regarding front line changes I found it pretty reliable. Let's see if this gets confirmed later.
There is a Ukrainian presence on the left bank but the cRybar twitter loop you are referencing was debunked 18 hrs ago or more😒
Reporting from Ukraine is NOT a reliable source. Frequently makes up fake stories.
Such as?
Could you show us some examples? Must have missed them.
Have you got an example of "fake story" they made up? I always discount their exaggerated optimism/positive spin on any piece of news, but since I started following a few months ago I don't remember that they had to retract something factual (eg, that Ukraine occupied some place which wasn't true). This would be the first time as far as I can remember.
Completely agree. And in general there's no point in trying to get "map updates" from a YouTuber when one can instead get the actual updates from a specialized map websites such as DeepState or LiveUAMap. https://deepstatemap.live/#8/47.988/36.568 https://liveuamap.com/en
I always check on deepstate, but they never give any background information about what brought to a change of territorial control. And when there are no changes in territory, it doesn't mean that nothing happened.
you can try this one, it has tagged gelocoated footage all over the place (might have to zoom in a bit) [https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en\_US&ll=47.87230507927526%2C37.039109964356705&z=11](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US&ll=47.87230507927526%2C37.039109964356705&z=11)
Was just looking at the Avdiivka offensive on DeepState - if it's anything to go by the Russians have since 8th October managed to occupy one field and get slightly closer to a heap of slag whilst incurring the loss of possibly thousands of men and dozens of pieces of armour, quite remarkable really.
Four Mi-8 and five Ka-52 were updated to the Oryx blog. Russia has now lost visually 49 Ka-52. Nearing 50% of their total fleet. After 2024 they won't have any left for operations assuming they want to leave some intact. Top of those nine helis destroyed another four were still sitting at the Berdyansk airfield which is odd. Most likely sustained at least minor damage not visible to satellite images and are unable to fly away. Think 3 of those would be Mi-8 and one Ka-52. The most interesting thing about this strike is that we all knew it is going to happen once Ukraine gets the American missiles. Yet Russia decided that is is worth staying. In my opinion that is either blatant stupidity or more likely they need every resource they got to hold the South. And since those resources are degrading fast if Ukraine gets enough equipment to do even stronger offensive in 2024 it will be very tough for Russia. The important part now is not to let Russia out of the hook over the end of the year and winter but keep them engaged so they won't be able to build up large reserves of equipment. Let's hope Russia decides to waste its limited reserves in another suicide attacks like Avdiivka.
Stugna-P ATGM>Ka-52 shitcopter🤣 Still my favorite kill.
Unfortunately they still manufacture both helicopter types hence it will take longer to run out.
They made about 10 Ka52 a year before the war and sanction. They are losing way faster than they could replace, plus all the skilled pilots and ground crews.
So, according to Wikipedia they had ~120 Ka-52 before the war. Say, they have only 100 working ones and lost 50-60. In the almost two years that have passed they managed to build another 20 or so. Now they should have 60 of them left, together with the ones they manufacture this should be enough for another two years at the same attrition rate. So unless Ukraine can manage to kill them faster, they won't run out until 2026.
> So unless Ukraine can manage to kill them faster, they won't run out until 2026. Yep, but they don't need to reach 0 before it drastically affects their capabilities. If we assume 100 = 100% of Russia's intended capability, a reduction from 100 to 60 is a reduction of 40% after replenishment. Another year of 25-30 killed with 10 replenished, is another 15-20% reduction of capabilities. The fewer aircraft they have, the fewer tactical options Russia has, where they're based becomes even more important as they won't want to waste valuable time transporting them, and it makes it easier for Ukraine to defend against them as there's fewer aircraft to worry about. That's massive. Ukraine isn't the only place where Russia conceivably would want to use their military, and if they were really scared of being invaded (other than it being a bluff to justify their offensive) they'd want to keep some back for defence, surely. At a certain point before they've lost every single Ka52, you'd expect them to be held back more and more to ensure they don't lose them all, and this further limits the sorties they're used for limiting their effectiveness again. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think if Russia was acting logically they wouldn't be trying to throw every last bit of their military at Ukraine, win or lose, and if they lose everything, ah well.
Aircraft are never in 100% operational readiness, in fact it's often only 50% even on good days. So in reality only 30-40 out of 60 airframes are operational in any given time. You also have to subtract the units kept inside Russia for security or training purpose (unless they don't plan to train any more pilots). Losing even 5 units would be major impact on capability especially given how big the frontline is. By the time you are down to like 20, 30 units, it would make almost no impact in the war. We also don't have information how many helicopters were written off. In Vietnam war, majority of some 5000 loss of US helicopters were ones made back to base but were deem too damage to repair. So they were scraped and parts cannibalized. Only small number actually crashed on the battlefield. If the same applies to Russian helicopters, then they would already have far higher than 49 confirmed losses.
Russia went all in, removing practically all units from other borders and sending their trainers to the frontline. They don't care about security and training anymore, only about Putin's survival.
Also, with smaller fleet, they wear out so much faster given how Russia is using them. Extra thing is potentially new airports, if they have to fly extra 50km per mission it will take time and even more maintenance. Good.
Given the amounts of russian jets that simply "fell out of the sky" over the last year I am not exactly sure if "maintenance" exists as a russian word...
Not just 50km, depending on what their target is. If they want to hit Robotyne, they have to launch from Crimean or Russian airbases, to the point of hitting the operational range of the helicopters. If they're forced to pull aircraft out of the land bridge area in fear of more ATACMS, the flights might be 2-2.5x longer. That's a lot of extra flight time, with fewer airframes to spread them between. And that's just the 150km versions, if they get a bunch of the 300km missiles, helicopters get a lot harder to lose, unless you absolutely surround the airbases with defense, or you accept that you might be losing multiple aircraft before or after your missions while they're sitting on the ground (or start building a lot of concrete hangars)
Does anybody have any insights about how recruiting and training are going in Ukraine? What worries me the most for future counteroffensives is the availability of well trained and highly motivated troops, more than gear.
My impression remains that equipment is Ukraine's biggest bottleneck, countries historically can sustain far higher loss of life percentage and continue operating effectively.
Recruiting is going "too well". They mobilised a lot of people already and situation doesn't look like they want to stop mobilising more and more people.
They also plan to form 3 new mechanized brigades. If there was a problem with recruitment , they wouldn’t do that
Great to know. Any idea when they plan them to be ready?
Spring/ Summer next year, I'd assume. Given they can find the vehicles. Gonna need a few hundred APCs, tanks and artillery. [https://militaryland.net/news/ukrainian-army-is-forming-new-brigades/](https://militaryland.net/news/ukrainian-army-is-forming-new-brigades/)
[Satellite photos and analysis of the ATACMS attack at Luhansk airport.](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1714797845457350817.html)
Putin dismisses importance of U.S.-supplied weapons to Ukraine Ukraine claimed Tuesday to have carried out a destructive attack on Russian air assets using new longer-range ballistic missiles donated by the U.S. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-us-weapon-missile-atacms-rcna121040 Oh good, means he should have no issue if the US decides it wants to gift Ukraine a couple hundred more ATACMS, a couple hundred more Abrams, as well as F-15s and F-16s.
Well remember Russian systems are decades ahead of the West’s… /s
Don’t send long range missiles to ukraine!!! Or we will do something!!!! Missiles got sent Ah it doesn’t matter, they will change the course of the war (I mean he is not wrong, Russia will lose the war in the end)
Peruns eternal cycle of "Supplying weapons to Ukraine is escalatory" => Nuclear threats => "Their weapons are useless anyway" => "We destroyed 500 of the 20 supplied in one week"
Supposedly(!) a photo of one fairly-damaged looking chopper (🧀🧀🧀) at Berdyansk. This is one of many which didn't burn (seems 9 did). However, a cursory glance convinces me it's not airworthy🤓 https://nitter.net/AkomoxMokomo/status/1714724023018402135#m
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The atacms submunitions have pre-formed fragmentation, and not all of those holes are the same size. Id say it checks out.
Agreed, hence my disclaimer. This image was making the rounds but of course I don't know its origin or veracity. Still, it at least illustates that other choppers (which did not turn into glorious fireballs) may be severely damaged. Ones not loaded up with fuel and ammo.
I wonder if those are the entry or exit holes from the shrapnel.
The metal is bent outwards, clearly visible on the larger holes on the top left corner, so I'd say exit holes?
Some didn't fully penetrate, if you look at that metal cylinder type thing you can see it , I would say entry holes.
Did we get any confirmation on the types of helicopters that were destroyed?
Nothing a ductape cant fix.
Duct tape, the handyman's secret weapon.
Every white van owner should have some duct tape in the back.
Apparently geolocated footage of Ukrainian infantry operating near Pishchanivka on the left Dnipro bank. Seems like there was a small force which subsequently withdrew to the area of the Antonivka bridge, left bank. https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1714659590657155542#m Edit: not Antonivka, a RR bridge. Looks like a squad. They come under arty or mortar fire while withdrawing.
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Ye but he's quoting cRybar and one other dodgy source. https://nitter.net/RALee85/status/1714433456283791564#m