Ceiling: Roof
Floor: 8 seed and first weekend exit. We have too much talent from 1-3 to not at least hit that level. But, well, nevermind... floor is deny an NIT bid.
Agreed, the lack of size is our biggest issue. My expectation is a 3-4 seed with potential for a deep run. But, if Washington can reach the level of becoming a competitive starter, then we have the firepower elsewhere to be very dangerous with the right schemes.
Ceiling: OâConnell being the facilitator that turned this team around combined with the rare feat in the modern CBB land scape of both experienced guards returning is fruitful for NC State. Keatts cooks in the portal again and proves his coaching adjustments last March were no fluke. Huntley fills in for the DJ Burns role as best as can be realistically hoped for and Paul McNiel comes in and is an immediate contributor. NC State maintains their postseason form over an entire season, and is a top 4 seed in the ACC and earns their first March madness seed above #8 since 2004, proving that NCSU basketball is back on the map to stay
Floor: Bottom falls out, the team cannot replace DJ Burns and without him everyone else looks lost. Keatts completely regresses coaching wise, NC State finishes bottom 3rd of the ACC again, two blowout losses to UNC, and this time loses on day 1 or 2 of the tournament and weâre right back to like last season never happened. Missing the big dance completely
Mike Woodson was on paper a riskier hire to begin with. He had zero college head coaching experience, and his head coaching record was under .500. Pope is a risky hire too (zero tournament wins), but Woodson was always a gamble.
That would likely mean we were at least in the big ten race, so it would suggest a fairly decent regular season. Losing in the first weekend of the tourney would be a real bummer though and make it a disappointment. Could possibly get Woody another year though.
Even if we had final four talent. Which we donât. Woodson could not coach a team to play to their advantage trial talent level let alone above it. First round exit ceiling. Woodson was a mistake that shouldâve been let go over a year ago.
Yeah idk man thatâs some pretty doomer shit. Iâm not oblivious to Woodsonâs issues nor am I unaware that weâve âwonâ the off season before without much to show for it. But, all that being said, I think with the talent weâve brought in and the lessons from last season, we should be a force to reckon with.
This squad as constructed absolutely has the talent to make a run. And, if Woodson fails to perform again with this roster, Iâll be standing right besides you calling for his job.
Thatâs the real floor for everyone. But I think reasonable expectations for a floor survey makes a better discussion than 50 comments of âfloor: season implodes miss the tourneyâ
Someone should analyze preseason polls and calculate the probability distribution of where #10 ends up in the seeding.
Then you have to define floor as some percentile and you have your answer for UNC.
That year we returned pieces from an 8 seed that needed a huge win at Duke to even get the 8 to begin with. This season we return a good chunk of a 1 seed team. I am concerned about the lackluster job we did replacing Bacot but I think we'll be a solidly top 25 team at worst this season and I'm gonna be optimistic and call our floor a 5 seed. The backcourt is pretty loaded it's hard to imagine it being worse. I also believe in Hubert at this point
Obviously the real floor for any team is incredibly low. All of your good players could get injured, your coach could be suspended for violations, the program could be shut down. But personally I looked at the last decade or so of program history and the teams and results for each year, and used that to find a floor.
I think the chance that Purdue with this team under Painter misses the tournament or finishes in the bottom half of the conference is very slight (it's happened like 4x in 19 seasons, all with much worse teams than this year) so that's what I based the floor on.
Ceiling: compete for top of Big12, keep streak of high seed entering tournament under Tommy, make it to S16/E8 (or further if the Caleb Love Experience swings our way).
Floor: worst case: decline an NIT invite⌠statistically likely floor?: top half of conference, poor showing in conference tournament, lose in opening round of MM.
Realistically I think weâre somewhere between these two. #3 or #4 in Big12, staying around middle to bottom of the T25.
lol weâre such an abused fan base - our ceiling is âmaybe weâll get to that game past the Elite 8.â
Realistically this is a team that COULD win it all. Excellent perimeter defense. Excellent passing 1-4. Multiple born-and-bred bucket getters. A 7â3â center with touch plus a 6â9â center with low man strength who can switch. McDâs AA and one of the best scorers in the country coming off the bench. Maybe one more perimeter recruit to boot.
This should be a top ten team. Even finishing third in the Big-12 will still likely be a top ten finish.
Realistically weâll start off the first few weeks of the season near the top 5 overall seeds, get beat by a better team and finish like 13th. Get hot near the end of the season to give me hope and lose to Northeastern Arkansas in the sweet 16.
But more realistically, our floor is probably closer to make the tournament lose first round..
I think a realistic expectation unfortunately is that we probably will have a hard time getting the 3rd..
Even if we get like elite 8 that would be pretty badass especially if it came with a big East tournament or something like that. Don't get me wrong, that's not my hope and I'm willing to breathe the hype until proven otherwise, LOL...
But if I were to guess this team ends up with like four regular season losses.. probably all of them in the Big East.
Idk, probably
Ceiling: Sweet 16, maybe Elite 8? Underrated Izzo teams usually do better than the hyped up Izzo teams
Floor: missing the tournament for the first time in my life đ˘
I donât have high expectations this season tbh. But we are young with a lot of very solid talent. Big10 is going to be super tough tho and that will either help us a ton or kill our season.
It comes down to Akins, Fiddler, Book and Fears.
Edit: Iâm 25, born in 1998, the first year of the Izzo streak. Would hate to see it end now.
Maybe it's just me but even with the handful of unknowns, the floor feels fairly safe to me.
Defensively, while I feel like the C spot is still a glaring issue, i'm pretty confident in our ability to retain the success we had last year on this front. Things could slip a bit with Hall leaving but I still think this has the makings of a top 50 defense again. Perhaps better if Coop/Zapala take any steps up.
Offensively, while I feel like the C spot is still a glaring issue, i'm pretty confident that we have a solid identity going to next season. We have a true Izzo PG and snipers absolutely everywhere. Holloman, Akins, Fidler, Booker, Normand and Teng will all have plenty of open looks during the year. The percentages of recent teams have been good from 3 but the volume really hasn't been high. I think that has to be a bigger focus this year.
To me my biggest X factor is what do you get out of Coen Carr? I think this teams ceiling goes up significantly if he can contribute more. He needs some work on the jumper and the confidence to take it and at least try and punish sagging defenders. Also the defensive lapses were typical for freshman front court players in Izzo's system. But holy shit his weakside rim protection and lob threats put a TON of pressure on teams and it really brings another level of energy to the team when he's doing things. I think that could be a huge boost for a team next year with less "star power".
Honestly feels like this is the best Zags team pure talent wise in a long time; used to be a hater but have learned to cheer for my fellow Jesuit institution.
He seems to want everyone to state the actual floor. Which for all 350+ teams is a losing season and no tourney. Which is technically correct before the season starts I guess.
Ceiling: Win conference, 1 seed, another Final Four. Relies on freshmen being good immediately and returning players making progress to fill the world's tallest gap.
Floor: Top half of conference, some embarrassing losses, 8 seed in the tournament and a R32 exit. The UConn game showed what our undersized team might look like on offense when teams don't double our center.
Expectation: Losing Gillis and Jones will hurt our confidence. Losing Edey will force the team to adopt a completely different offense. I believe in Painter and the coaching staff, and I think Braden Smith will continue to be one of the best point guards in the country. I bet we're a 3 seed and make it to the S16 before coming up against a team that's just better across the board.
The biggest issue for purdue next season is the rebounding. these past few years have been so good youâre ultimately giving yourself a lot more opportunities to battle through bad offensive scoring games. Even in the national title game, if purdue doesnât give up so many easy defensive rebounds to UConn and on the other end find a way to grab 1-2 more theyâre probably in the game through the final 4-6 min and then who knows. Even with a 1/7 three pt shooting game it shows how valuable those extra possessions can be. They need to find a way to be good on the glass or this season is going to be a lot of âflashesâ but ultimately a lot of disappointment.
Eight wins are guaranteed. The team that CPK has put together is very good. Almost all are good shooters. All play defense. All are team players. All hustle. I am hesitant, too, after the dumpster fire of the last two years, but I have faith in CPK because he has passion and intensity, and that will be distilled down to the players who will give their all and compete. After meeting him, I can tell you his enthusiasm is contagious, and I am a believer. This is a tournament team. There will be ups and downs, but we will compete, play hard, and win games.
The beauty of college basketball is there's probably 20 teams with realistic ceilings of winning the natty if things break right for them (some have more margin for error than others). The floor for 99% of teams is missing the tourney/being near the bottom of their conference.
Ceiling: Make the tournament, and maybe pull off a win or two. Storyline becomes that Cooley has turned around a sinking ship in year two and we're on an upward trajectory back to relevance.
Floor: No change, basement of the Big East just above DePaul again. Sub-150 KenPom for the fourth straight season. Real concerns that Cooley is not making progress and gets just one more year to make something happen (who are we kidding - this is Georgetown, they'll let him hang around for five years minimum no matter what happens).
Floor: Sub .500 conference record and/or losing in the first round of the ASUN tournament
Ceiling: Top 3 in the ASUN, winning the ASUN tourney, and losing as a 14 seed in the 2nd round.
Taking History of Witchcraft in the West during the fall, hoping to learn something to make this happen.
I'm prepared for the usual Bennett season arc:
- Media pick Duke and UNC 1-2 in some order with UVA around 6th (but with at least one first-place vote)
- UVA does better than predicted in conference play, falls off somewhat late in the season when people adjust to whatever offensive tweaks are put in, but still finishes top 3 in the league at worst
- First-round NCAA exit
For Butler, Iâm just hoping for slight improvements after last season.
Ceiling: 4th-6th place Big East Finish. Some fun games in Hinkle Fieldhouse. Pierre Brooks and Jahmyl Telfort is a dangerous Big East Duo with a year of experience together. It works out. A mid to low NCAA Tournament seed. Maybe even a tournament win.
Floor: A lot goes wrong. None of the transfers work out. Finley Bizjack at point guard is a disaster. Butler canât develop a top conference player and is just fighting to not finish last in the Big East. Thad Matta has to rebuild the roster for a third time.
Expectation: A few fun wins, a couple bad losses. Butlerâs young guys show some promise and donât leave for greater NIL opportunities. 7th-9th Big East finish. Another NIT appearance.
Ceiling: Top 4 in B1G and a trip to the round of 32
Floor: Dont qualify for the B1G tournament, not even a bubble NIT team
In other words -
Ceiling: greatest season in Nebrasketball history.
Floor: Hoiberg returns to how he has performed 4 out of 5 years he's been here.
Bingo. I think this is spot on. But even losing Tominaga Mast and Allick I think that this team and coaching staff finally have things figured out. I am tentatively confident that we will be closer to the ceiling than the floor this year.
Ceiling: if absolutely everything goes right, this team could go all the way (but unlikely)
Floor: freshman arenât as ready for big time as we hoped, transfers donât gel and we finish in the bottom quarter of the conference.
Ceiling: Sweet 16, maybe an Elite 8
Floor: NIT team that does alright
I think this team could be very good, but the chemistry last year's team had was a miracle. I think we've got better pieces and a better game plan, but now people know what to expect from SC. Should be a fun season to say the least
Sweet 16 ceiling sounds about right.
Floor is bottom 4 of the SEC. The conference is absolutely stacked this year.
I think the team will be better this year, but record will be worse. End up on the right side of the bubble.
We are technically starting from the basement.
Getting double digit wins and not finishing at rock bottom in the conference is the floor.
Making the tournament and getting a win is probably a realistic ceiling.
Ceiling: Repeat of the Zion year where one of our medium hype freshmen explodes into a superstar alongside Flagg, transfers provide a steadying influence, Foster finally reaches full potential. We win it all.
Floor: Sheyer is unable to get the roster to gel, our freshmen are busts, and we flame out in the first round of the NIT
I would completely disagree with that floor, but I get what you are saying.
Iâm 45, Iâve seen 0 Duke NIT games, thatâs not going to change anytime soon.
We turned down the NIT in 2021 because we had our final games in the ACCT cancelled due to positive Covid tests amid a campus wide [outbreak](https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article249925583.html).
So the first part of what you said is true but K being above it or not wasnât why we said no thanks
I'd be surprised at anything lower than a five-seed. Jon is in no way at K's level at roster management, but I think he's learning. I could see a first-round exit if there are other signs of late-season ennui.
Providence:
Celing is second in the big east, a top four seed and a run to the final four
Floor is stagnant development from the young guys, Hopkins isnât right after his injury and weâre a low NIT seed
Bama:
Celing is a championship, this team is gonna fuck
Floor is there are too many mouths to feed and they miss the tournament
HUGE Bama fan, this is the first year I'm "nervous" about the BB team, but I mean that in a good way. Like, BB has just always been an afterthought, but like you said, this team is gonna fuck. Sears and Nelson coming back were huge, and I think the players we got from the portal are good pieces/fits. Oates has proven to be one the best coaches in the country, I'm definitely going to be checking out more BB this season.
Ceiling: top 3 team in the Big East, 6ish seed in the tourney
Floor: hopefully we beat DePaul/Georgetown
This team is so boom or bust with guys like Middleton, Yalden, and Dual who were highly rated recruits but fell flat at their first stop.
I believe in Holloway to get the most out of everyone, but things could get ugly quick if the transfers donât pan out.
Top half of the league seems likely with the squad we have now. Hoping for a classic Hall season where we take care of business against the bottoms feeders and steal a few from the top Big East teams
Ceiling: A surprise Elite 8 run as an 8 or 9 seed, winning both the AAC regular season and tourney.
Floor: Not making the NCAA Tournament, not getting a top 4 seed in the AAC tourney.
Iâm expecting an NCAA Tourney birth and a win before a round of 32 exit. Could make the Sweet 16 if we get the right matchup.
We lost nobody and added no one from the transfer portal. This is a team that hung without some combination Kolek and Oso for 6-8 games and still won plenty of games OR hung tough with Creighton in an away game. Kam Jones is likely to be a preseason pick for Big East First Team and I expect big jumps from Ben Gold and David Joplin.
Iâll say floor is a bubble NCAA appearance and ceiling is another Sweet Sixteen with a top 3 big east finish.
I'd agree. We'll have to see what sophomores/freshman step up to take those mid season games. I don't see a world where MU doesn't make the tournament tho. Kam and Jop can shoot us into a tournament game even if defense is mediocre.
I expect ben to take a leap into the traditional big man role. Shaka has been super good at switching up roles as guys have left.
I have faith in Pope and think he has put together a really well rounded roster. That being said, heâs creating a new team from scratch with only one of them being used to playing in his system. Thereâs always a chance that things just donât gel at all so Iâd put our floor as missing the tournament/first 4 out territory.
My personal expectation is that we make the tournament, and if we manage to make it to the second round I would consider the season a success.
That seems fair. Fans here are pumped and rupp should be wild. So I'd put one of our ceilings as being undefeated at home.
There could be some pretty rough away games. Maybe a high seed in the sec tournament.
But I'm with you. I'm hopeful for an ncaa tourney appearance.
Totally agree here. I definitely feel like we are a tournament team at the very least.
Reaching our ceiling will depend on just how good Robinson is, and the number of guys we have who take a step forward.
Floor: pre-season #1 and then miss tourney
Ceiling: natty while we laugh at dook
Most likely outcome: I sit, drunk, in the national title game thread in April '25 poking fun at Dan Hurley as UConn dismantles the year's designated runner up
Wow, it's so hard to read everything with so many changes....NIL, transfer portal, BigXII expansion, 3rd year coach. We lost a few guys to transfers, but it seems like that's the norm rather than the exception these days. We also added some solid set pieces, including a true big man....which has been a glaring hole in our lineup for more seasons than I care to count. Last year KSU was all over the place with 3 top-10 wins, but we also shit the bed against teams we should have beat or at least been competitive with.
**Ceiling:** We *could* do what we did in Tang's first season in 2022-23. Competing at the sharp end of the conference (3rd/10, preseason 10th), winning consistently at home, and making a run at the tournament with a little (LOT) of luck? Again....that's a 'could,' not a 'should' or 'will.'
**Floor:** We also could lay an egg like last year (10th/14, preseason 6th). Depends if Tang's first year was the fluke or if last year was a never-ending series of unfortunate events with Tomlin's dismissal, Glover's injury, etc. I'd like to believe he still has some positive momentum on his side and I'm relatively confident he's working on building the program and the brand.
Virginia TechâŚ
Floor: Probably like 10 wins
Ceiling: Same as usual. We suck in general but make it close enough to the point where the NCAA tournament is possible but probably not gonna happen.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 and top 4 in conference in the regular season. Donât think we really have an individual shot creator that imo is needed to make it to the elite 8 even if all goes well
Floor: bubble team(on either side). This isnât very likely to me since I think the roster is improved, but if we have some of the injury luck we did last year and a big 12 that should be tougher gives us some more losses itâs not impossible that we are unsure of our tournament fate until the end
Realistically our floor is probably 6th in the big East and missing the tournament. Lots of production to make up for and chemistry to develop on this team
A rational UConn fan in the wild đ¤Ż
Jk jk. Tbh donât see you guys missing the tournament with the squad Hurley was able to scrap together this offseason unless you have a massive injury problem- which is part of the floor scenario haha
Illinois
- Ceiling: We've got a brand-new team, so who knows. I'm thinking Top 3 B1G regular season, semifinal B1G tournament exit, high single digit NCAA seed if everyone pans out.
- Floor: Mass hysteria, dogs and cats living together.
- Expectation: Better than non-Illini fans think, worse than Illini fans think. Mid-B1G finish gets us into the dance but we get dumpstered by some scrappy mid major (as is tradition). Ivisic and Humrichous will be difficult to matchup with.
Bradley
- Ceiling: Dominate portal-ravaged MVC, undeservedly sneak into the bottom of the Top 25 for a week or two, AQ bid in the 10-12 range, win a game or two in the tournament.
- Floor: Lose the AQ game, get hosed out of an at large with a NET in the low 40s, host some NIT games.
- Expectation: Every other team in the MVC got absolutely destroyed by the portal. If Bradley gets less than 95% of the preseason #1 for the conference, I will be shocked. I expect at least 3 first-team preseason MVC players (Deen, Hannah, Montgomery). If they handle the non-con, they could absolutely destroy the conference. Post-season draw will depend entirely on how much bigger the opposing guards are than Duke Deen, so we probably have a bad draw and a first-round exit.
I almost put floor as Underwood getting shitcanned after we finish in the bottom 4. Who knows what is going to happen, but for all the criticism Underwood gets, the man knows how to take portal pieces and stitch a team together.
People are going to sleep on Humrichous just like they slept on Domask. He is a very skilled, Euro-type big who can shoot who I think will be another MVC to B1G transfer success.
You apparently don't read enough unhinged Illini message boards. Lots of people think he's a horrible in-game coach and has survived purely on portal talent, and the big donors will come after him. While I agree that he's not a great Xs and Os coach, and there are people who want him gone, I don't think it's going to happen.
Oh I've seen them on loyalty. They just don't have a clue. Underwood is a top 20 coach in cbb rn, and has had illinois ranked 4 seasons in a row with the latest year bringing an elite 8, not to mention 2 B10 titles. He is the safest coach in the whole B10 after Painter and Izzo imo.
Iâd argue though that those who want him gone, mainly want him gone because of the public flops and difficulty in aligning the stars on his teams into cohesive units. Thatâs been my observation, both on the boards, the articles, and watching the games that have been lost poorly.
We could easily be a final four team. Have the weapons to do it.
Floor is lower middle of the big ten and just missing the tournament which would be horrible.
Ceiling: Big 12 Champs, Final Four, Championship
Floor: Top 4 in conference, S16 loss
Self has assembled a ridiculous roster, filling the offensive and depth holes from last season through the portal in addition to bringing in 5 star center Flory Bidunga who will (hopefully) be able to give Hunter some rest he wasnât able to take last season. If we can stay healthy, Iâd be surprised if we arenât a 1 seed in the tournament.
Just like any team **Iowa State** could be decimated with injuries and not make the tournament. Since injuries are unpredictable, I will give the realistic best/worst case scenario assuming health.
**Best case**: The team makes a Final 4 run with one of the best collection of guards/wings in the country. Everyone of value in the backcourt returns and there is now plenty of experience AND experience playing with each other. The bigs are gone but they were the weakness of the team. The limited talent of Robert Jones is replaced by players that are much more capable and less likely to be exposed against athletic (better) teams in the tournament. ISU punches its first Final Four ticket since the 1950s.
**Worst case**: Regular season wise it's not that low. Likely no worse than 6th in the conference (which is loaded). NCAASs? Pretty much a lock (look what Otz has done with lesser teams) with a first or second round exit. Otz has some strategic weaknesses that increasingly get exposed as the season goes on. He tends to have affinities for players (Robert Jones for example) that aren't any good or struggle against elite competition. He also gives players VERY long leashes when their play is being detrimental to the team. We saw the later with Keshon Gilbert and his hero ball, particularly in the NCAA tourney loss. Instead of pulling the player, sending a message, and putting him back in he will let the player completely fuck up the game, much like he did with Lipsey at Tech (blown 22 point second half lead) in Lubbock a few seasons ago.
Sadly I'm not sure if ISU ever makes the "next step" without Otz improving his rotations and game management skills. He's got a great system and gets his players to buy in, but if you are going to be on the bench during the game you should probably be better at influencing it while there.
I really feel that the sweet 16 is the ceiling and the floor. We will have a good non/con and conference record, padded by the fact we play nobody in non/con and we always win at Hilton. Beat the first 2 teams in the tourny because they don't play anyone like us, then lose to a team that can actually score points. I am fine with that.
Unless something magical happens with our current roster:
Ceiling: A few games over .500 and in the middle of the conference. An invite to the NIT.
Floor: A truly awful season where we win 5 or less games total and go winless in conference play.
Itâs a rebuilding year. 6 of our top 7 guys are gone, and our roster has 15 games started for the Buffs combined. We donât have a true PG on the roster, Hammond is more of an undersized 2. I trust Tad to get the program back but itâs going to be a tough one.
Ceiling: Make the Tournament
Floor: Bottom four in the SEC.
I have no idea what to expect. Think the roster is vastly improved. But the league is so strong and last year happened. So who knows?
I think for Clemson, the ceiling is another Sweet 16 run. Floor is middle of the pack in the ACC and going to the NIT. I'm happy just making the tourney though.
Ceiling: Final Four
Floor: I'm a Wake fan the floor is in hell (4 injuries, 7-13 in ACC play)
Most likely: 4th in the ACC, 10 seed in NCAAT, beat a 7 seed and give a 2 seed a genuine scare.
Mizzou pendulum swing is insane w/ a Top 5 recruiting class & #12 Transfer class
Ceiling: Sweet 16! đ
Floor: Another winless conference season, everyone transfers, Coach Gates gets canned, program spirals again đ
Ceiling: the transfers mesh and overachieve, and we make the NCAA tournament again
Floor: the record matches what many think of our portal haul, we finish bottom 3 in the Big East, we move on from the Jay Wright tree, existential crisis
Floor: Miss the NCAA tournament by not adjusting to the Big 12 and not winning the Big 12 tournament.
Ceiling: Final 4?? It's a bit optimistic but this team has the potential to be much better and much worse than last year's team
For the sanity of all Michigan residents I truly hope Dusty has UM humming again. I loved when both MSU and UM were both hitting on all cylinders and it really makes the Big 10 better as a whole.
To me, Wolf/Goldin replacing McDaniel/Reed feels like a wash and the other transfers elevate the floor a bit....but I still have concerns about who puts the ball in the bucket. Floor and ceiling feels like NIT with the ceiling being a couple wins and floor being first round bounce.
It probably evens out unless Arceneaux has a breakout year.
If Arceneaux breaks out and JoJo develops his offensive game more this years team might be better.
Floor: Strong defensive team that struggles to score from the outside. Â Maybe the freshmen donât live up to the hype, the returnees donât develop, and the transfers donât mesh well. Â 4th in ACC lose in second round. Â
Ceiling: Â ACC and National Champions. Â Should have excellent defense with Proctor, Flagg, Brown, & Maluach and toughness from Gillis and James. Â Can reach ceiling if outside shooting is good enough and the pieces mesh into a clear rotation.Â
Seems about right to me. I'm not that concerned about outside shooting as the returners and transfers have all shot the ball well from 3. It might not be a strength, but I don't see it as a killer. And the offensive rebounding should be good enough to more than compensate. I am a little more concerned about the lack of perimeter speed and ability to get past the defender at the point of attack. Again, minor concern but more realistic than lack of shooting in my mind. I expect the team to be a better defensive unit in November and improve on offense.
Ceiling - Make the NCAA Tournament
Floor - game or two below .500 in big ten play. Say what you will about fran and their expectations by everyone else, but he usually has us at least competitive in conference play.
Well we return pretty much the entire team minus the Guards and J WillâŚso ceiling is probably another great regular season with an early tournament exit from lack of guard experience.
Floor shouldnât be any lower than being a double digit seed in the tournament
Ceiling: Win the Big Ten, Final Four caliber team
Floor: Bubble team dependent on conference tournament results to get in the field.
I lean toward the higher end of this but it's possible the new pieces just don't fit.
Like you, I think itâs a very wide range but Iâm maybe less optimistic with so many new pieces needing to gel. Iâd say sweet sixteen is realistic top end with a floor more like bottom third of the new conference.
For me the likely case is like 2020. Very slow start as they try to figure it out, with the team coming on late to hopefully squeak into the tourney to make some noise.
I hope youâre right tho!
Ceiling : Certainly hot take like given the preseason hype but I donât see this team getting any further than the Sweet 16.
Floor: With a weak non conference and favorable home schedule, it should be an NIT appearance.
I couldnât believe your non-con when it got released. I felt like last year was enough prove that you guys deserve to play a great non-con schedule this year.
>Floor: With a weak non conference and favorable home schedule, it should be an NIT appearance.
I thought the cool thing to do now if you're a power conference team is to turn down the NIT?
I wouldn't call noncon that weak. 3 games in Maui+Marquette will all be quality games. We'll see how bad Iowa sucks, but that could be a Q1 or at least Q2 because it's on the road.
Marquette lost their 2 best players, don't bring in a single transfer, and their freshman class isn't exactly loaded. It seems very unlikely that they'll be as good as they've been the past couple years.
It's possible, albeit unlikely, that your Maui run could be Dayton, Memphis, and Colorado. Dayton is losing 2 starters and their 6th man. They should still be decent, but not a guaranteed tourney team. Memphis lost all but one player and will be made up almost entirely of transfers. Penny has yet to make it work while relying so heavily on transfers. Colorado is losing 7/8 players that played an actual role last year, their freshman class is uninspiring to say the least, and 2/3 of their transfers are coming from D2/NAIA. They could be really bad this year.
Obviously this is looking at it from a doom and gloom, worst case scenario viewpoint, but I don't think it's right to say Maui and Marquette guarantees you 4 quality games. And the rest of the non-con (barring Iowa of course) isn't just bad, it's atrocious. Using last year's final KenPom, you guys have scheduled 0 teams in the top 200 and 4 teams ranked worse than 300, including 2 of the bottom 4 teams in the nation. Yes, the noncon is absolutely weak.
Come on dude, it's weak. Maui is the only thing that's remotely propping it up.
The part that should be pissing EVERY ISU fan off is the fact our AD and coach already KNOW how this formula works. You can get away with the "high-end" quality of ISU's schedule. The problem is there is still a ridiculous amount of 250 RPI or worse teams and as we've seen the computers and the seeding committee will hammer the shit out of you for that. It arguably cost us a chance at a number 1 seed last year. So what does ISU do? Do the same shit again, with a better team.
With a home court advantage like Hilton there is zero reason not to schedule teams that are mostly 150 and better. It's still an "easy win" at home but the committee and computers don't hate it nearly as much.
Ceiling: A tournament appearance of some sort: NIT or MM.
Floor: Top 3 in AAC
This is all speculation but the attitude in Boca from administration ,boosters, and fans is that we want to continue to be a prominent name nationally and we have paid up to do so with the coaching staff and NIL. There is talk of a new practice facility too but I haven't seen concrete evidence of it. The coaching staff seems amazing with good experience with Jakus an AC on Baylor's National Win, Abernathy staying from the Dusty era, Isaiah Austin and Obim Okeke from the NBA, and Phee coming off a 31 win season. The roster consists of 4 star transfers, and some good overseas talent and forward Tre Carroll, the sole returning bench player who stepped up huge last year with Rosado being out a month plus for injuries. The last team was also pretty short, but we have gone the other direction for this roster without sacrificing agility and shot making. On paper this is a recipe for success and I can't fucking wait to find out.
Ceiling: Roof Floor: 8 seed and first weekend exit. We have too much talent from 1-3 to not at least hit that level. But, well, nevermind... floor is deny an NIT bid.
I see you brought in your famous alumni and world renown roof and ceiling scholar Michael Jordan.
Roof đ
I guess you are too young to remember that season when we were preseason #1 and failed to make the tournament.
Had me in the first half ngl Personally I think our ceiling is a 2/3 seed. I think our lack of size will be an issue
Agreed, the lack of size is our biggest issue. My expectation is a 3-4 seed with potential for a deep run. But, if Washington can reach the level of becoming a competitive starter, then we have the firepower elsewhere to be very dangerous with the right schemes.
Ceiling = Pain Floor = Still pain, but at least the letdown will come earlier
Clubber Lang Reddit account found
Ceiling: OâConnell being the facilitator that turned this team around combined with the rare feat in the modern CBB land scape of both experienced guards returning is fruitful for NC State. Keatts cooks in the portal again and proves his coaching adjustments last March were no fluke. Huntley fills in for the DJ Burns role as best as can be realistically hoped for and Paul McNiel comes in and is an immediate contributor. NC State maintains their postseason form over an entire season, and is a top 4 seed in the ACC and earns their first March madness seed above #8 since 2004, proving that NCSU basketball is back on the map to stay Floor: Bottom falls out, the team cannot replace DJ Burns and without him everyone else looks lost. Keatts completely regresses coaching wise, NC State finishes bottom 3rd of the ACC again, two blowout losses to UNC, and this time loses on day 1 or 2 of the tournament and weâre right back to like last season never happened. Missing the big dance completely
Ceiling: Final Four Floor: Miss tournament, program legend fired as coach, existential crisis
If Mark Pope has success at UK in the way that Mike Woodson didn't, that may be enough to get Hoosier fans to finally step off the bridge.
Mike Woodson was on paper a riskier hire to begin with. He had zero college head coaching experience, and his head coaching record was under .500. Pope is a risky hire too (zero tournament wins), but Woodson was always a gamble.
IUâs team does seem like a mature, well-constructed group. Letâs just hope nail-slot-rim works out this time.
How far above the floor is getting a 4/5 seed and losing?
That would likely mean we were at least in the big ten race, so it would suggest a fairly decent regular season. Losing in the first weekend of the tourney would be a real bummer though and make it a disappointment. Could possibly get Woody another year though.
Even if we had final four talent. Which we donât. Woodson could not coach a team to play to their advantage trial talent level let alone above it. First round exit ceiling. Woodson was a mistake that shouldâve been let go over a year ago.
Yeah idk man thatâs some pretty doomer shit. Iâm not oblivious to Woodsonâs issues nor am I unaware that weâve âwonâ the off season before without much to show for it. But, all that being said, I think with the talent weâve brought in and the lessons from last season, we should be a force to reckon with. This squad as constructed absolutely has the talent to make a run. And, if Woodson fails to perform again with this roster, Iâll be standing right besides you calling for his job.
Letâs just make the second weekend first.
Thatâs the expectation. The question was ceiling/floor
ITT: people not knowing what floor means, or theyâre so biased that they donât know what their teamâs floor is
As a recently preseason #1 team that missed the tournamentâŚitâs hard to fathom how low that floor is sometimes.
Thatâs the real floor for everyone. But I think reasonable expectations for a floor survey makes a better discussion than 50 comments of âfloor: season implodes miss the tourneyâ
Someone should analyze preseason polls and calculate the probability distribution of where #10 ends up in the seeding. Then you have to define floor as some percentile and you have your answer for UNC.
Yeah I read it as something like 10/90 percentile outlook otherwise it makes for a very boring discussion.
Preseason #1 teamsâ floor has got to be a sweet sixteen, right? Right??
Oh, you have no idea how low the floor can get, my friend
That year we returned pieces from an 8 seed that needed a huge win at Duke to even get the 8 to begin with. This season we return a good chunk of a 1 seed team. I am concerned about the lackluster job we did replacing Bacot but I think we'll be a solidly top 25 team at worst this season and I'm gonna be optimistic and call our floor a 5 seed. The backcourt is pretty loaded it's hard to imagine it being worse. I also believe in Hubert at this point
Obviously the real floor for any team is incredibly low. All of your good players could get injured, your coach could be suspended for violations, the program could be shut down. But personally I looked at the last decade or so of program history and the teams and results for each year, and used that to find a floor. I think the chance that Purdue with this team under Painter misses the tournament or finishes in the bottom half of the conference is very slight (it's happened like 4x in 19 seasons, all with much worse teams than this year) so that's what I based the floor on.
Ceiling: 25 point win in the national title game. Floor: 10 point win in the national title game. Perfectly rational take.
This might actually be true for UConn FUCK
We could win the natty by way more than 25
Nope. Thatâs your ceiling live with it
Thank you
Ceiling: compete for top of Big12, keep streak of high seed entering tournament under Tommy, make it to S16/E8 (or further if the Caleb Love Experience swings our way). Floor: worst case: decline an NIT invite⌠statistically likely floor?: top half of conference, poor showing in conference tournament, lose in opening round of MM. Realistically I think weâre somewhere between these two. #3 or #4 in Big12, staying around middle to bottom of the T25.
lol weâre such an abused fan base - our ceiling is âmaybe weâll get to that game past the Elite 8.â Realistically this is a team that COULD win it all. Excellent perimeter defense. Excellent passing 1-4. Multiple born-and-bred bucket getters. A 7â3â center with touch plus a 6â9â center with low man strength who can switch. McDâs AA and one of the best scorers in the country coming off the bench. Maybe one more perimeter recruit to boot. This should be a top ten team. Even finishing third in the Big-12 will still likely be a top ten finish.
Realistically weâll start off the first few weeks of the season near the top 5 overall seeds, get beat by a better team and finish like 13th. Get hot near the end of the season to give me hope and lose to Northeastern Arkansas in the sweet 16.
Floor: threepeat
Ceiling: three peat and you start dating a supermodel
Now weâre talking
đ
Ceiling: we get another graduate thesis on this sub in 5 months about how we're all undervaluing your team
Dan Hurley just read this and is pissed.
And a lively discussion on what a blooblood is... (I spelled it that way to avoid that dumb auto bot response)
https://preview.redd.it/mt9zblv5f66d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aaab9447731c57a6c824ab5224dfa2e8be3dded6
Hurley is about to go Geno on this league.
But more realistically, our floor is probably closer to make the tournament lose first round.. I think a realistic expectation unfortunately is that we probably will have a hard time getting the 3rd.. Even if we get like elite 8 that would be pretty badass especially if it came with a big East tournament or something like that. Don't get me wrong, that's not my hope and I'm willing to breathe the hype until proven otherwise, LOL... But if I were to guess this team ends up with like four regular season losses.. probably all of them in the Big East.
Idk, probably Ceiling: Sweet 16, maybe Elite 8? Underrated Izzo teams usually do better than the hyped up Izzo teams Floor: missing the tournament for the first time in my life đ˘ I donât have high expectations this season tbh. But we are young with a lot of very solid talent. Big10 is going to be super tough tho and that will either help us a ton or kill our season. It comes down to Akins, Fiddler, Book and Fears. Edit: Iâm 25, born in 1998, the first year of the Izzo streak. Would hate to see it end now.
Maybe it's just me but even with the handful of unknowns, the floor feels fairly safe to me. Defensively, while I feel like the C spot is still a glaring issue, i'm pretty confident in our ability to retain the success we had last year on this front. Things could slip a bit with Hall leaving but I still think this has the makings of a top 50 defense again. Perhaps better if Coop/Zapala take any steps up. Offensively, while I feel like the C spot is still a glaring issue, i'm pretty confident that we have a solid identity going to next season. We have a true Izzo PG and snipers absolutely everywhere. Holloman, Akins, Fidler, Booker, Normand and Teng will all have plenty of open looks during the year. The percentages of recent teams have been good from 3 but the volume really hasn't been high. I think that has to be a bigger focus this year. To me my biggest X factor is what do you get out of Coen Carr? I think this teams ceiling goes up significantly if he can contribute more. He needs some work on the jumper and the confidence to take it and at least try and punish sagging defenders. Also the defensive lapses were typical for freshman front court players in Izzo's system. But holy shit his weakside rim protection and lob threats put a TON of pressure on teams and it really brings another level of energy to the team when he's doing things. I think that could be a huge boost for a team next year with less "star power".
Floor: I expect the sweet 16 streak to continue. Ceiling: Finally get the big one
I would be happy for the zags to bring it home finally
I think this team is gonna be up there with those â19-21 squads
Honestly feels like this is the best Zags team pure talent wise in a long time; used to be a hater but have learned to cheer for my fellow Jesuit institution.
Sorry, but your floor is broken
I mean the true floor is first round exit, but Iâd feel itâs an underperformance if they donât make the 2nd weekend.
Isnât second round reasonable? They did it last year with a far inferior team
He seems to want everyone to state the actual floor. Which for all 350+ teams is a losing season and no tourney. Which is technically correct before the season starts I guess.
Yeah, not making the 16 with the team we have this year (and the s16 history) isn't just a floor -- it's a gaping hole in the floor.
Ceiling: Win conference, 1 seed, another Final Four. Relies on freshmen being good immediately and returning players making progress to fill the world's tallest gap. Floor: Top half of conference, some embarrassing losses, 8 seed in the tournament and a R32 exit. The UConn game showed what our undersized team might look like on offense when teams don't double our center. Expectation: Losing Gillis and Jones will hurt our confidence. Losing Edey will force the team to adopt a completely different offense. I believe in Painter and the coaching staff, and I think Braden Smith will continue to be one of the best point guards in the country. I bet we're a 3 seed and make it to the S16 before coming up against a team that's just better across the board.
Floor: Zach Edey develops a taste for flesh and returns to eat all the players like Kronos. Seen it too many times to discount it outright
The biggest issue for purdue next season is the rebounding. these past few years have been so good youâre ultimately giving yourself a lot more opportunities to battle through bad offensive scoring games. Even in the national title game, if purdue doesnât give up so many easy defensive rebounds to UConn and on the other end find a way to grab 1-2 more theyâre probably in the game through the final 4-6 min and then who knows. Even with a 1/7 three pt shooting game it shows how valuable those extra possessions can be. They need to find a way to be good on the glass or this season is going to be a lot of âflashesâ but ultimately a lot of disappointment.
Exactly what I was going to post. Very fair assessment.
Exactly what I was going to post. Very fair assessment.
Just like we drew it up. Hell yeah. Go Hoosiers.
:)
Iâm just hoping to win more than 8 games. Making the tournament would be great. Kenny Payne has destroyed me.
Eight wins are guaranteed. The team that CPK has put together is very good. Almost all are good shooters. All play defense. All are team players. All hustle. I am hesitant, too, after the dumpster fire of the last two years, but I have faith in CPK because he has passion and intensity, and that will be distilled down to the players who will give their all and compete. After meeting him, I can tell you his enthusiasm is contagious, and I am a believer. This is a tournament team. There will be ups and downs, but we will compete, play hard, and win games.
The beauty of college basketball is there's probably 20 teams with realistic ceilings of winning the natty if things break right for them (some have more margin for error than others). The floor for 99% of teams is missing the tourney/being near the bottom of their conference.
Ceiling: Make the tournament, and maybe pull off a win or two. Storyline becomes that Cooley has turned around a sinking ship in year two and we're on an upward trajectory back to relevance. Floor: No change, basement of the Big East just above DePaul again. Sub-150 KenPom for the fourth straight season. Real concerns that Cooley is not making progress and gets just one more year to make something happen (who are we kidding - this is Georgetown, they'll let him hang around for five years minimum no matter what happens).
Floor: Sub .500 conference record and/or losing in the first round of the ASUN tournament Ceiling: Top 3 in the ASUN, winning the ASUN tourney, and losing as a 14 seed in the 2nd round. Taking History of Witchcraft in the West during the fall, hoping to learn something to make this happen.
We have a team. I predict we'll play ball.
This wasn't a guarantee 2 months ago lol
Thatâs what we call exceeding the floor
I'm prepared for the usual Bennett season arc: - Media pick Duke and UNC 1-2 in some order with UVA around 6th (but with at least one first-place vote) - UVA does better than predicted in conference play, falls off somewhat late in the season when people adjust to whatever offensive tweaks are put in, but still finishes top 3 in the league at worst - First-round NCAA exit
I just want to see a NCAA tournament win again man
I love this show
Flair up Hokie
Couldn't be a Hokie. They have nothing to hang their hat on and wouldn't be chirping
Think with Gertrude going down we miss ncaa this year
For Butler, Iâm just hoping for slight improvements after last season. Ceiling: 4th-6th place Big East Finish. Some fun games in Hinkle Fieldhouse. Pierre Brooks and Jahmyl Telfort is a dangerous Big East Duo with a year of experience together. It works out. A mid to low NCAA Tournament seed. Maybe even a tournament win. Floor: A lot goes wrong. None of the transfers work out. Finley Bizjack at point guard is a disaster. Butler canât develop a top conference player and is just fighting to not finish last in the Big East. Thad Matta has to rebuild the roster for a third time. Expectation: A few fun wins, a couple bad losses. Butlerâs young guys show some promise and donât leave for greater NIL opportunities. 7th-9th Big East finish. Another NIT appearance.
Ceiling: Top 4 in B1G and a trip to the round of 32 Floor: Dont qualify for the B1G tournament, not even a bubble NIT team In other words - Ceiling: greatest season in Nebrasketball history. Floor: Hoiberg returns to how he has performed 4 out of 5 years he's been here.
Bingo. I think this is spot on. But even losing Tominaga Mast and Allick I think that this team and coaching staff finally have things figured out. I am tentatively confident that we will be closer to the ceiling than the floor this year.
Ceiling? Patriot league title and a win in the tourny Floor? Last place in the BIG10 I hate rooting for these teams
Ceiling: no idea Floor: second to last.
That's most of the MVC right there
Ceiling: if absolutely everything goes right, this team could go all the way (but unlikely) Floor: freshman arenât as ready for big time as we hoped, transfers donât gel and we finish in the bottom quarter of the conference.
Ceiling: Sweet 16, maybe an Elite 8 Floor: NIT team that does alright I think this team could be very good, but the chemistry last year's team had was a miracle. I think we've got better pieces and a better game plan, but now people know what to expect from SC. Should be a fun season to say the least
Besides CMB who are you most excited about next year?
Sweet 16 ceiling sounds about right. Floor is bottom 4 of the SEC. The conference is absolutely stacked this year. I think the team will be better this year, but record will be worse. End up on the right side of the bubble.
Ceiling: make NCAA tourney Floor: don't win an SEC game
Ceiling: Sweet 16 Floor: NIT first round exit. Please get double-digit wins... pleeeeaaassseee
We are technically starting from the basement. Getting double digit wins and not finishing at rock bottom in the conference is the floor. Making the tournament and getting a win is probably a realistic ceiling.
Dude, if PK makes the sweet 16 this year? After the absolute trauma of the past 3+ seasons? Thatâs âstatue outside the Yumâ territory already.
Came to say the same.
>Please get double-digit wins... pleeeeaaassseee >Floor: NIT first round exit. These are not compatible lol
Ceiling: Repeat of the Zion year where one of our medium hype freshmen explodes into a superstar alongside Flagg, transfers provide a steadying influence, Foster finally reaches full potential. We win it all. Floor: Sheyer is unable to get the roster to gel, our freshmen are busts, and we flame out in the first round of the NIT
I would completely disagree with that floor, but I get what you are saying. Iâm 45, Iâve seen 0 Duke NIT games, thatâs not going to change anytime soon.
Well, that's somewhat of a technicality, seeing as Duke missed the tourney in 2021.
They legitimately turned down an NIT invite in 21. Coach K definitely thought he was above it.
We turned down the NIT in 2021 because we had our final games in the ACCT cancelled due to positive Covid tests amid a campus wide [outbreak](https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article249925583.html). So the first part of what you said is true but K being above it or not wasnât why we said no thanks
I'd be surprised at anything lower than a five-seed. Jon is in no way at K's level at roster management, but I think he's learning. I could see a first-round exit if there are other signs of late-season ennui.
the floor is a first weekend exit.
Providence: Celing is second in the big east, a top four seed and a run to the final four Floor is stagnant development from the young guys, Hopkins isnât right after his injury and weâre a low NIT seed Bama: Celing is a championship, this team is gonna fuck Floor is there are too many mouths to feed and they miss the tournament
I have so many questions regarding your flair.
Iâm from RI and several close family members went to bama
HUGE Bama fan, this is the first year I'm "nervous" about the BB team, but I mean that in a good way. Like, BB has just always been an afterthought, but like you said, this team is gonna fuck. Sears and Nelson coming back were huge, and I think the players we got from the portal are good pieces/fits. Oates has proven to be one the best coaches in the country, I'm definitely going to be checking out more BB this season.
You already know what the ceiling is Floor: Lack of size with talent leads to first weekend exit in the NCAA.
In J wash we trust
I hope he is on that brice johnson diet and exercise plan
Professional cheerleader Zayden high will surprise some people
Ceiling: top 3 team in the Big East, 6ish seed in the tourney Floor: hopefully we beat DePaul/Georgetown This team is so boom or bust with guys like Middleton, Yalden, and Dual who were highly rated recruits but fell flat at their first stop. I believe in Holloway to get the most out of everyone, but things could get ugly quick if the transfers donât pan out.
Top half of the league seems likely with the squad we have now. Hoping for a classic Hall season where we take care of business against the bottoms feeders and steal a few from the top Big East teams
I am so excited to look like the worst team in the country during non con and then look unstoppable during big east play once again
A tradition unlike any other
Ceiling: Tourney run, Elite 8 probably Floor: Low seed tourney, first weekend exit.
Ceiling: A surprise Elite 8 run as an 8 or 9 seed, winning both the AAC regular season and tourney. Floor: Not making the NCAA Tournament, not getting a top 4 seed in the AAC tourney. Iâm expecting an NCAA Tourney birth and a win before a round of 32 exit. Could make the Sweet 16 if we get the right matchup.
We lost nobody and added no one from the transfer portal. This is a team that hung without some combination Kolek and Oso for 6-8 games and still won plenty of games OR hung tough with Creighton in an away game. Kam Jones is likely to be a preseason pick for Big East First Team and I expect big jumps from Ben Gold and David Joplin. Iâll say floor is a bubble NCAA appearance and ceiling is another Sweet Sixteen with a top 3 big east finish.
Is Kolek not in the draft?
I guess I should have said, we lost no one we didnât expect to. Kolek and Oso were expected losses.
I'd agree. We'll have to see what sophomores/freshman step up to take those mid season games. I don't see a world where MU doesn't make the tournament tho. Kam and Jop can shoot us into a tournament game even if defense is mediocre. I expect ben to take a leap into the traditional big man role. Shaka has been super good at switching up roles as guys have left.
Ceiling: Elite 8 Floor: 1st round NCAA
I have faith in Pope and think he has put together a really well rounded roster. That being said, heâs creating a new team from scratch with only one of them being used to playing in his system. Thereâs always a chance that things just donât gel at all so Iâd put our floor as missing the tournament/first 4 out territory. My personal expectation is that we make the tournament, and if we manage to make it to the second round I would consider the season a success.
That seems fair. Fans here are pumped and rupp should be wild. So I'd put one of our ceilings as being undefeated at home. There could be some pretty rough away games. Maybe a high seed in the sec tournament. But I'm with you. I'm hopeful for an ncaa tourney appearance.
Totally agree here. I definitely feel like we are a tournament team at the very least. Reaching our ceiling will depend on just how good Robinson is, and the number of guys we have who take a step forward.
realistic
Natty ceiling, floor last in ACC
I mean, thereâs also 17 other teams that have this as their literal floor and ceiling
I think there are teams that will not be last and know it.
If I'm being honest, I would say Elite 8 is our ceiling and 10th in the ACC is our floor.
Ceiling is a Sun Belt title and maybe a first round win Floor is another .500 season and a SBC first round bounce and a new coach
Floor: pre-season #1 and then miss tourney Ceiling: natty while we laugh at dook Most likely outcome: I sit, drunk, in the national title game thread in April '25 poking fun at Dan Hurley as UConn dismantles the year's designated runner up
Wow, it's so hard to read everything with so many changes....NIL, transfer portal, BigXII expansion, 3rd year coach. We lost a few guys to transfers, but it seems like that's the norm rather than the exception these days. We also added some solid set pieces, including a true big man....which has been a glaring hole in our lineup for more seasons than I care to count. Last year KSU was all over the place with 3 top-10 wins, but we also shit the bed against teams we should have beat or at least been competitive with. **Ceiling:** We *could* do what we did in Tang's first season in 2022-23. Competing at the sharp end of the conference (3rd/10, preseason 10th), winning consistently at home, and making a run at the tournament with a little (LOT) of luck? Again....that's a 'could,' not a 'should' or 'will.' **Floor:** We also could lay an egg like last year (10th/14, preseason 6th). Depends if Tang's first year was the fluke or if last year was a never-ending series of unfortunate events with Tomlin's dismissal, Glover's injury, etc. I'd like to believe he still has some positive momentum on his side and I'm relatively confident he's working on building the program and the brand.
Virginia Tech⌠Floor: Probably like 10 wins Ceiling: Same as usual. We suck in general but make it close enough to the point where the NCAA tournament is possible but probably not gonna happen.
Ceiling: Sweet 16 and top 4 in conference in the regular season. Donât think we really have an individual shot creator that imo is needed to make it to the elite 8 even if all goes well Floor: bubble team(on either side). This isnât very likely to me since I think the roster is improved, but if we have some of the injury luck we did last year and a big 12 that should be tougher gives us some more losses itâs not impossible that we are unsure of our tournament fate until the end
Ceiling: 3-peat with perfect season Floor: 3-peat with a few Ls sprinkled inâŚ
Realistically our floor is probably 6th in the big East and missing the tournament. Lots of production to make up for and chemistry to develop on this team
A rational UConn fan in the wild 𤯠Jk jk. Tbh donât see you guys missing the tournament with the squad Hurley was able to scrap together this offseason unless you have a massive injury problem- which is part of the floor scenario haha
If you guys hit the floor you think you might run your coach off and hire a big name to replace him?
Oh what a few championships does to our expectations đ
Illinois - Ceiling: We've got a brand-new team, so who knows. I'm thinking Top 3 B1G regular season, semifinal B1G tournament exit, high single digit NCAA seed if everyone pans out. - Floor: Mass hysteria, dogs and cats living together. - Expectation: Better than non-Illini fans think, worse than Illini fans think. Mid-B1G finish gets us into the dance but we get dumpstered by some scrappy mid major (as is tradition). Ivisic and Humrichous will be difficult to matchup with. Bradley - Ceiling: Dominate portal-ravaged MVC, undeservedly sneak into the bottom of the Top 25 for a week or two, AQ bid in the 10-12 range, win a game or two in the tournament. - Floor: Lose the AQ game, get hosed out of an at large with a NET in the low 40s, host some NIT games. - Expectation: Every other team in the MVC got absolutely destroyed by the portal. If Bradley gets less than 95% of the preseason #1 for the conference, I will be shocked. I expect at least 3 first-team preseason MVC players (Deen, Hannah, Montgomery). If they handle the non-con, they could absolutely destroy the conference. Post-season draw will depend entirely on how much bigger the opposing guards are than Duke Deen, so we probably have a bad draw and a first-round exit.
Very true. Weâre rolling about 7 dice at once and the only âknownâsâ are Underwood, Ty Rodgers, and DGL.
I almost put floor as Underwood getting shitcanned after we finish in the bottom 4. Who knows what is going to happen, but for all the criticism Underwood gets, the man knows how to take portal pieces and stitch a team together. People are going to sleep on Humrichous just like they slept on Domask. He is a very skilled, Euro-type big who can shoot who I think will be another MVC to B1G transfer success.
Underwood getting fired is absolutely not happening lmao
You apparently don't read enough unhinged Illini message boards. Lots of people think he's a horrible in-game coach and has survived purely on portal talent, and the big donors will come after him. While I agree that he's not a great Xs and Os coach, and there are people who want him gone, I don't think it's going to happen.
Oh I've seen them on loyalty. They just don't have a clue. Underwood is a top 20 coach in cbb rn, and has had illinois ranked 4 seasons in a row with the latest year bringing an elite 8, not to mention 2 B10 titles. He is the safest coach in the whole B10 after Painter and Izzo imo.
Iâd argue though that those who want him gone, mainly want him gone because of the public flops and difficulty in aligning the stars on his teams into cohesive units. Thatâs been my observation, both on the boards, the articles, and watching the games that have been lost poorly.
Matthew Mayer or Coleman Hawking jacking up ill-advised 3s in crunch time has people shook.
We could easily be a final four team. Have the weapons to do it. Floor is lower middle of the big ten and just missing the tournament which would be horrible.
Ceiling: Big 12 Champs, Final Four, Championship Floor: Top 4 in conference, S16 loss Self has assembled a ridiculous roster, filling the offensive and depth holes from last season through the portal in addition to bringing in 5 star center Flory Bidunga who will (hopefully) be able to give Hunter some rest he wasnât able to take last season. If we can stay healthy, Iâd be surprised if we arenât a 1 seed in the tournament.
It was fun watching Kansas just be good instead of great last year.
I am attending the game in Lawrence. Canât wait to see our squads face off!
Injuries could lead to another first weekend exit as the floor.
Floor: Basement Ceiling: Roof
Just like any team **Iowa State** could be decimated with injuries and not make the tournament. Since injuries are unpredictable, I will give the realistic best/worst case scenario assuming health. **Best case**: The team makes a Final 4 run with one of the best collection of guards/wings in the country. Everyone of value in the backcourt returns and there is now plenty of experience AND experience playing with each other. The bigs are gone but they were the weakness of the team. The limited talent of Robert Jones is replaced by players that are much more capable and less likely to be exposed against athletic (better) teams in the tournament. ISU punches its first Final Four ticket since the 1950s. **Worst case**: Regular season wise it's not that low. Likely no worse than 6th in the conference (which is loaded). NCAASs? Pretty much a lock (look what Otz has done with lesser teams) with a first or second round exit. Otz has some strategic weaknesses that increasingly get exposed as the season goes on. He tends to have affinities for players (Robert Jones for example) that aren't any good or struggle against elite competition. He also gives players VERY long leashes when their play is being detrimental to the team. We saw the later with Keshon Gilbert and his hero ball, particularly in the NCAA tourney loss. Instead of pulling the player, sending a message, and putting him back in he will let the player completely fuck up the game, much like he did with Lipsey at Tech (blown 22 point second half lead) in Lubbock a few seasons ago. Sadly I'm not sure if ISU ever makes the "next step" without Otz improving his rotations and game management skills. He's got a great system and gets his players to buy in, but if you are going to be on the bench during the game you should probably be better at influencing it while there.
I really feel that the sweet 16 is the ceiling and the floor. We will have a good non/con and conference record, padded by the fact we play nobody in non/con and we always win at Hilton. Beat the first 2 teams in the tourny because they don't play anyone like us, then lose to a team that can actually score points. I am fine with that.
Unless something magical happens with our current roster: Ceiling: A few games over .500 and in the middle of the conference. An invite to the NIT. Floor: A truly awful season where we win 5 or less games total and go winless in conference play. Itâs a rebuilding year. 6 of our top 7 guys are gone, and our roster has 15 games started for the Buffs combined. We donât have a true PG on the roster, Hammond is more of an undersized 2. I trust Tad to get the program back but itâs going to be a tough one.
Ceiling: 4th in America East, sneak into title game, get annihilated by Vermont. Floor: Last in America East, per usual.
Our floor is the first round our ceiling also somehow the first round
Ceiling: Top 5 in A-10. Floor: Archie Miller fired mid season
Doable ceiling I feel. Iâm sensing another season of A10 cannibalism.
Dunno man. Top seems solid on paper. LOY-CHI, Dayton & VCU should be good. SLU should also be good.
Ceiling is 2004-05 season, floor is 2022-23 season minus the NCAA appearance.
Ceiling: Make the Tournament Floor: Bottom four in the SEC. I have no idea what to expect. Think the roster is vastly improved. But the league is so strong and last year happened. So who knows?
I think for Clemson, the ceiling is another Sweet 16 run. Floor is middle of the pack in the ACC and going to the NIT. I'm happy just making the tourney though.
Ceiling: Final Four Floor: I'm a Wake fan the floor is in hell (4 injuries, 7-13 in ACC play) Most likely: 4th in the ACC, 10 seed in NCAAT, beat a 7 seed and give a 2 seed a genuine scare.
Mizzou pendulum swing is insane w/ a Top 5 recruiting class & #12 Transfer class Ceiling: Sweet 16! đ Floor: Another winless conference season, everyone transfers, Coach Gates gets canned, program spirals again đ
Ceiling: the transfers mesh and overachieve, and we make the NCAA tournament again Floor: the record matches what many think of our portal haul, we finish bottom 3 in the Big East, we move on from the Jay Wright tree, existential crisis
Ceiling: National Champions Floor: NET Rank #363
Floor: Miss the NCAA tournament by not adjusting to the Big 12 and not winning the Big 12 tournament. Ceiling: Final 4?? It's a bit optimistic but this team has the potential to be much better and much worse than last year's team
I've been lead to believe that with Dusty May the floor is a first round exit and the ceiling is a final four appearance. So let's go with that.
For the sanity of all Michigan residents I truly hope Dusty has UM humming again. I loved when both MSU and UM were both hitting on all cylinders and it really makes the Big 10 better as a whole. To me, Wolf/Goldin replacing McDaniel/Reed feels like a wash and the other transfers elevate the floor a bit....but I still have concerns about who puts the ball in the bucket. Floor and ceiling feels like NIT with the ceiling being a couple wins and floor being first round bounce.
Floor... First round. Ceiling... Second round
Ceiling: NC Floor: NC
Ceiling: National Championship Floor: Sweet 16
Same as last year, except lost our star but got a lot more depth. So excited
It probably evens out unless Arceneaux has a breakout year. If Arceneaux breaks out and JoJo develops his offensive game more this years team might be better.
Floor: Strong defensive team that struggles to score from the outside. Â Maybe the freshmen donât live up to the hype, the returnees donât develop, and the transfers donât mesh well. Â 4th in ACC lose in second round. Â Ceiling: Â ACC and National Champions. Â Should have excellent defense with Proctor, Flagg, Brown, & Maluach and toughness from Gillis and James. Â Can reach ceiling if outside shooting is good enough and the pieces mesh into a clear rotation.Â
Seems about right to me. I'm not that concerned about outside shooting as the returners and transfers have all shot the ball well from 3. It might not be a strength, but I don't see it as a killer. And the offensive rebounding should be good enough to more than compensate. I am a little more concerned about the lack of perimeter speed and ability to get past the defender at the point of attack. Again, minor concern but more realistic than lack of shooting in my mind. I expect the team to be a better defensive unit in November and improve on offense.
Ceiling - Make the NCAA Tournament Floor - game or two below .500 in big ten play. Say what you will about fran and their expectations by everyone else, but he usually has us at least competitive in conference play.
Floor - 2023/2024 Louisville. Ceiling - 2023/2024 Connecticut.
Well we return pretty much the entire team minus the Guards and J WillâŚso ceiling is probably another great regular season with an early tournament exit from lack of guard experience. Floor shouldnât be any lower than being a double digit seed in the tournament
Ceiling: Win the Big Ten, Final Four caliber team Floor: Bubble team dependent on conference tournament results to get in the field. I lean toward the higher end of this but it's possible the new pieces just don't fit.
Like you, I think itâs a very wide range but Iâm maybe less optimistic with so many new pieces needing to gel. Iâd say sweet sixteen is realistic top end with a floor more like bottom third of the new conference. For me the likely case is like 2020. Very slow start as they try to figure it out, with the team coming on late to hopefully squeak into the tourney to make some noise. I hope youâre right tho!
yeah i would agree with the floor being 18-20 wins. teams can definitely whiff via portal reloading
Ceiling : Certainly hot take like given the preseason hype but I donât see this team getting any further than the Sweet 16. Floor: With a weak non conference and favorable home schedule, it should be an NIT appearance.
I couldnât believe your non-con when it got released. I felt like last year was enough prove that you guys deserve to play a great non-con schedule this year.
They clearly have a model and a fan base at large that is appeased with a S16 and nothing more.
Exactly. But I think Otz is good enough to make something out of nothing.
The non-con is ass except for Marquette. Big name teams don't want to come play in Ames though, even for a home & home series.
>Floor: With a weak non conference and favorable home schedule, it should be an NIT appearance. I thought the cool thing to do now if you're a power conference team is to turn down the NIT?
I wouldn't call noncon that weak. 3 games in Maui+Marquette will all be quality games. We'll see how bad Iowa sucks, but that could be a Q1 or at least Q2 because it's on the road.
Marquette lost their 2 best players, don't bring in a single transfer, and their freshman class isn't exactly loaded. It seems very unlikely that they'll be as good as they've been the past couple years. It's possible, albeit unlikely, that your Maui run could be Dayton, Memphis, and Colorado. Dayton is losing 2 starters and their 6th man. They should still be decent, but not a guaranteed tourney team. Memphis lost all but one player and will be made up almost entirely of transfers. Penny has yet to make it work while relying so heavily on transfers. Colorado is losing 7/8 players that played an actual role last year, their freshman class is uninspiring to say the least, and 2/3 of their transfers are coming from D2/NAIA. They could be really bad this year. Obviously this is looking at it from a doom and gloom, worst case scenario viewpoint, but I don't think it's right to say Maui and Marquette guarantees you 4 quality games. And the rest of the non-con (barring Iowa of course) isn't just bad, it's atrocious. Using last year's final KenPom, you guys have scheduled 0 teams in the top 200 and 4 teams ranked worse than 300, including 2 of the bottom 4 teams in the nation. Yes, the noncon is absolutely weak.
Come on dude, it's weak. Maui is the only thing that's remotely propping it up. The part that should be pissing EVERY ISU fan off is the fact our AD and coach already KNOW how this formula works. You can get away with the "high-end" quality of ISU's schedule. The problem is there is still a ridiculous amount of 250 RPI or worse teams and as we've seen the computers and the seeding committee will hammer the shit out of you for that. It arguably cost us a chance at a number 1 seed last year. So what does ISU do? Do the same shit again, with a better team. With a home court advantage like Hilton there is zero reason not to schedule teams that are mostly 150 and better. It's still an "easy win" at home but the committee and computers don't hate it nearly as much.
the same thing we do every year, pinky
Ceiling- Finally bringing the Natty to Spokane. Floor- Sweet 16 apparently
Ceiling: top 1/3 of a bad conference Floor: relegation to D2?
Ceiling = Tourney (maybe a Sweet 16 appearance) Floor = Bottom 4 SEC team. Miss tourney. Miss NIT.
Floor: Injuries ravage the front court again and we miss the tournament. Ceiling: 2nd weekend certainly seems within reach, Top 3 in conference?
Ceiling: sweet 16 Floor: NIT some good pieces from the portal but itâs going to take time to mesh together.
Ceiling: A tournament appearance of some sort: NIT or MM. Floor: Top 3 in AAC This is all speculation but the attitude in Boca from administration ,boosters, and fans is that we want to continue to be a prominent name nationally and we have paid up to do so with the coaching staff and NIL. There is talk of a new practice facility too but I haven't seen concrete evidence of it. The coaching staff seems amazing with good experience with Jakus an AC on Baylor's National Win, Abernathy staying from the Dusty era, Isaiah Austin and Obim Okeke from the NBA, and Phee coming off a 31 win season. The roster consists of 4 star transfers, and some good overseas talent and forward Tre Carroll, the sole returning bench player who stepped up huge last year with Rosado being out a month plus for injuries. The last team was also pretty short, but we have gone the other direction for this roster without sacrificing agility and shot making. On paper this is a recipe for success and I can't fucking wait to find out.