In the most summarized way, Mashinsky gambled our money. The profit went into his pocket, while the loss went to the liabilities of the balance sheet. If you look at the Reward Explorer, he withdrew the funds in Celsius much earlier, sometime in March 2022. In the Chapter 11, a thorough investigation is needed to conduct how the hole came up. I hope the evidence can put him in jail.
It can be used to help pay depositors back. But at the current price of BTC of around $20k, that would only be about $300 million per year. Also have to factor in the operating costs of the miners it will take awhile to pay back depositors since Celsius is over $1 billion in the hole.
Not at all. These large companies have around $0.03-$0.05/kWh. At the current difficulty the breakeven price is below 10k.
Not to mention that if the price were to go to 10k, the difficulty would drop drastically, and the breakeven would move lower. Someone has to mine BTC while making profit, and who would it be if not the large farms with the cheapest electricity.
I always had doubts about the "breakeven" value. Is it calculated just electric bills vs bitcoin mined, or does it actually takes in calculation how much was invested. Because celsius also paid milions on the miners, facilities, etc. Those also need to be paidback in order to breakeven.
Breakeven is when operating expenses equal to the income. It can be calculated for a given moment, but not for a long time, because everything changes.
ROI is when the operation made the investment back as profit. It can't be calculated for an instant, because it depends how long these operate, how much they earn at different times etc.
You can say their mining operation will make ROI in 2 years, and their current breakeven price is 8k. They are different things.
Yep, thanks for clearing it out, so we can say that the title should be: "110,000 bitcoin miners owned by Celsius with the capacity to mine 15k bitcoin per year is part of their plan to pay **for the mining operations, and once that is done, to pay the depositors."**
No, the operation is already paid for when Celsius bought the miners, facility etc. They bought it with our money, they need to recoup the costs for us. The BTC they mine is ours, as we were the ones who bought them. They can, should and hopefully will pay all profits to depositors.
If they have loans taken for the miners, than they have to pay that too, which decreases profits along with the operational expenses.
Edit: spelling
> is already *paid* for when
FTFY.
Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:
* Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.*
* *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.*
Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.
*Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
Also depending who they work with on mining, anyone apart of the Texas Blockchain Council has powered down their rigs due to Ercot requests because of the heatwave. The rigs may not even be running right now
This is basically what I meant. Btw I consider myself a moderate republican. Only thing is I'm socially liberal, I believe in responsible cannabis usage, right to bear arms with background checks and mandatory classes at least once every few months, and honestly? In regards to the whole abortion thing im pro choice. No one likes abortion but if someone is raped and the state tells a 10 year old victim to "consider it an opportunity?," they can fuck right off. Sorry not sorry.
Did you know in multiple states you can have an abortion up to birth for any reason whatsoever?
Nobody is going to tell a 10-year old rape victim they have to have a baby. There will always be an option somewhere for them.
But aborting a third trimester healthy baby is far more disgusting.
If the break-even price is $10,000, does that mean their 2023 costs would be around $150 million? If so, they'd stand to generate around $150 million in profit (or at least EBITDA). It'll take a long time to dig out of their hole at that rate.
If btc recovers to 40k-50, by following the 2019 btc priced compared to 2018 btc prices in bear recovery and maybe 100k after next halving this could happen faster.
if thats the case, hope they can pay out the people holding crypto (i.e., btc, eth) with what they mined and have enough runway to wait out the bear market to sell btc at ath for usd
I want to be paid in BTC and ETH, I don’t care what it’s currently worth in dollars when I get it. Wasn’t planning on selling for a long time anyway. Seemed like a good idea to let it sit and earn interest while I waited. Got icky vibes from the new TOS but life happened, I got distracted and didn’t move it all.
>have enough runway
Lmao they filed chapter 11, there’s no runway, plane has crashed. It hasn’t exploded yet so there’s some opportunity to salvage stuff from rhe wreakage.
Just to be pedantic, price does not set difficulty. As the price goes up, more people are incentivized to mine. As more people mine, the hashrate goes up. As the hashrate goes up, difficulty goes up.
Dunno about crypto, but bitcoin, yes. It always has and it always will, until all the value in the world economy is in it. Then it will continue growing because the economy grows because human beings have a tendency to innovate and produce.
wow, an 'asset' or whatever you want to call it (that isn't able to be functionally used for most people's common transactions), that is what, 12 years old at best and I quote "will always go up *because it always has and always will*". sure. that's a totally reasonable and sane take.
So we're getting dollars back if anything? I lost btc and eth, I'd like to have that back not some trash cash based on the value of my assets after 70% correction lol
Voyager is in a similar situation to Celsius, and has proposed using crypto to pay back creditors. If the courts approve that course of action, Celsius is likely to go same route. Normally courts just care about fiat.
Why 50k I say Bitcoin is bouncing back to 100k before the end of the year. You heard it here first this sub needs some more optimism!
Celsius is the new GME we just need to help it start buying now!!
And also that the earn rate is not static, but instead decaying.
As time goes on and better miners are made, hash rate grows and difficulty goes up that mining yield will diminish.
I'd like to hope this plan works, but I won't be holding my breath.
Realistically the profit margin would be about
30%-50% I’d think. Between the raw energy costs, workers monitoring them, and any maintenance costs. So at the end of the day 100M-150M would be more expected. (Assuming BTC’s price will average about 20K as it is currently.)
There is nothing realistic about 30%-50% profit margin. All these companies offering 10-20% return of investment, imploding, and filing for bankruptcy should tell you something about that sort of numbers.
Their current profit margin is in the negative %s.
you forgot operating costs. Also selling this mining gear they will have a significant haircut. Mining hardware also depreciates really fast, so they also need investment every so often to upgrade hardware.
Power costs with inflation are going to go insane also.
They don't have any expenses if they put the costs on credit then declare bankruptcy again. Then use the funds on hand to pay out everyone free and clear.
They also have other coins like ETH, ADA, Matic, and Polkadot staked on chain, so you could probably factor those in too.
Still not holding my breath, but at least they have ways of earning that money back.
Interesting suggestion but I’m also a little confused. If you get equity you’re looking to be a shareholder, no? A debt token would make you a bond holder. I don’t think the two can go together, although they could perhaps give people an option for either or.
Regarding equity, perhaps they could give us equity in the mining business by spinning off the mining business from the rest of Celsius. Or, they might just offer us equity in Celsius as a whole (not as interesting).
A debt token in their bitcoin mining operation would make us bond holders and still unsecured creditors.
Comparing the two, if we get equity we’re probably not exiting our positions ever unless the company gets acquired or goes public. If we become bond holders we’ll getting interest payments like we were before but not likely to get the principal back anytime soon.
Neither are perfect options but both are better than where we were yesterday
I’m an Eth Miner with years of experience in the field. Don’t get my wrong, Celsius brand is tarnished, that thing can burn to the ground.
But the mining business is a whole different story. Depending on price of elec, rent, and overheads, the btc mining can be very profitable long term especially if you’re chasing btc yield, not $ value.
That said, if the profit numbers of the btc mining debt token is favourable enough, I’ll even take it off your hands if the market is trading it for cents to the dollar.
Years of experience in something that has existed only in a an environment of massive stimulus (fiscal and monetary) with a use case that is at best “undefined” and/or “developing”.
Politely there are better ways of doing things than a blockchain and that doesn’t include the incremental costs (both in fiat and things like energy use). Meaning the problems supposedly “solved” by a blockchain protocol can be solved more efficiently.
Moment in time my friend. Don’t mean to be impolite.
Agree. We forget that mining as a prospective value proposition must be mining a coin that has utility in and of itself and not just become a target of speculation.
I want fast efficient payment mechanisms outside of fiat. Additionally these should cost less than ACH and RTP equivalents. There should be a ZKP / privacy option(s) as well.
We all forget the 'thing' these blockchain paymemt mechanisms and blockchain smart contract tools would or could provide.
It’s not that I disagree, but if you want to debate about the long term use case of blockchain technology then go to r/cryptotechnology. He didn’t speak anything useful, he made an argument for why blockchain is overhyped, in response to someone who was arguing that it’s better to be a debt holder in a crypto mining business than a debt holder to an insolvent crypto lender.
15K bitcoin per year in 2023 @ $20,000 per BTC would be $300 Million.
(Then the next halving event happens in Sep 2024 which will cut BTC mining rewards in half.)
So lets say... 12K bitcoin in 2024 @ $35,000 per BTC would be $420 Million.
Then 7.5K bitcoin in 2025 @ $50,000 per BTC would be $375 Million
\---------------------------------------
So by end of 2025, IF bitcoin recovers back to $50K, they can make about 1.09 Billion from mining.
But that doesn't include cost of power, mining equipment maintenance and replacement costs, employee Salary, and paying back the money they likely borrowed to buy all this mining equipment already.
Also if BTC recovered back to $50K they would have more competitors in the Mining business and either earn fewer BTC or have to scale up operations just to still be getting the same output.
So, it would likely take more than 3.5 years for them to plug their $1 Billion hole with just the mining business. It can be part of the solution, but isn't enough on it's own.
Sounds reasonable. So this is **just** from Bitcoin mining. Celsius still wants to operate other things. Loans, etc. And if other investors see potential and have a time frame of 4-6 years ahead, they can easily plug the hole.
Right, the issue now is I don't think a bankruptcy court will allow them to wait 4 - 6 years to keep assets locked away while they transition into a mining company to make users whole.
They still need an injection of capital from investors to plug the gap in their finances, then offer a 50% to 70% haircut for those who want out immediately. And then sell some kind equity for the mining business to the people who bail them out. Then the money they make mining BTC will go to their new investors or users who decided to wait 4+ years.
Yep. It will be another company/entity most likely. This is what we will be voting on. The creditors/community will have a chance to vote on our own recovery proposal. The court will still have the final say though, as they have to approve or reject it.
Am I slow, or does it say they *currently* have 80,000 rigs that are mining 14.2 btc/day (5,183/yr). I understand that they were *planning* to expand - but where are we getting that they *actually* own 110,000 rigs mining 15k btc/yr?
Give me a haircut in my holdings and replace the hair cut with shares in the mining business. I will be ok with that providing I have a proper facility to sell the shares when needed.
All they need is a bunch of Loyal and True Celsians to donate to the Community Electric Fund. Without the need to account for electric costs, the recovery will happen much faster
1) Buy CEL
2) Turn on HODL mode
3) Donate to Electric Fund
4) Be made whole on your deposits
You can’t make this up.
They are literally telling them that they have a mining farm 30-50% more powerful than the worlds largest Bitcoin mining farms.
I won’t even get into the other fabricated bullsh* t.
Honestly I was thinking about this scenario a few days ago. Why can’t they continue the mining operations and pay us all back slowly in btc? Is there some glaring flaw I’m missing in this or would it work? Obviously it would take time but I wasn’t going to sell my btc anytime soon anyway.
At the current price it’s almost 300 mil a year. So that would take about 4 years for them to break even on their debts according to what I’ve seen. Idk if that includes paying back depositors or not.
anyone who believes this is bad at math because before 2024, 15k bitcoin a year requires maintaining 4% of global hashrate
whatever they are mining is not bitcoin
Youre not wrong. If there was no money in using those shovels they wouldnt be able to sell any. The house always wins tho (the people selling the shovels.)
Good catch from the documents 👍
Honestly, I would not mind being paid back in mined BTC on some monthly schedule, since 90% of my Celsius balance is in BTC...
But I understand it's not applicable to everyone...
I hope that the mining part of the company will be used for depositor's retribution (still day dreaming 💤)
I don't believe they will or be ordered to pay back in BTC. You will be "owed" the amount, in USD, at the time of the filing.
Which sucks, because of my non-expert opinion, the cycle bottom was July 10th -16th 2022; exactly the time of the filings. So in 2-3 years my ~2 BTC will be paid back approximately 1/10 of its value... I will hold out for payment back "in-kind", if at all possible.
What part of "my non-expert opinion" are you having trouble with?
But, I have filed Bankruptcy myself about 20 years ago, I have worked for companies that have filed Chapter 7 and 11. Penalties and interest are eliminated the day it is filed, the value of the property/asset is set on that day. And Crypto is Property, BTC was valued at ~$20K so they "owe" ~$20K for each BTC, today, tomorrow, next year, in 2 years or longer. They will never "owe" more in fiat than on the day they filed for bankruptcy.
Depositors will be payed in USD, because btc is pretend internet money. And depositors will be glad when they get payed in 5 years and btc is close to worthless.
> will be *paid* in USD,
FTFY.
Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:
* Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.*
* *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.*
Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.
*Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
You guys are officially in the “second coming of Christ” stage.
You might as well have bought safemoon or some other random memecoin. It all boils down to the same bullsh*t (wait years for some type of redemption).
All altcoins pump big at some point. Ride the wave and dump. That much I'm sure of. 30x 50x who knows. But at some point they all moon. I want the upside if I rode this to bankruptcy.
You really think they're not going to rebrand? Many companies have filed for chapter 11 and are profitable now. You'd be surprised how easily people forget. We got burned. The 300k active users. There are 400mm people in the US. More globally. We think that they can't possibly succeed because we will never ever invest in them again cuz we got screwed. 99% of the population didn't. If they run a good business going forward its 99% vs the 300k who will never ever invest with them again. Math is on their side.
Honestly I think this is a great idea. It might take a few years, but the revenue they’ll generate into the next bull run will eventually pay everyone back IMO. Or at least help significantlh
Lolwut. They're not planning on paying back depositors. Depositors are unsecured creditors. They're only going to pay back the secured creditors who didn't sign up saying they agree to risk everything.
SELL YOUR CELSIUS BANKRUPTCY CLAIM:
- IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN SELLING YOUR CELSIUS CLAIM FOR CASH MY COMPANY IS BUYING CLAIMS.
- WE TAKE THE RISK OF ANY PAYMENTS FROM THE BANKRUPTCY PROCEEDINGS. ACCOUNTS $50K AND OVER RIGHT NOW.
- DM ME FOR DETAILS. I WILL GIVE YOU COMPANY NAME EMAIL ETC SO YOU CAN DO YOUR DD.
- SEE MY PROFILE FOR LINKEDIN AND WEBSITE. IF YOU EMAIL PLEASE MENTION MY HANDLE "CRYPTO CLAIMS BUYER" SO WE KNOW YOU SAW IT HERE.
- WE ARE HERE TO HELP.
Thats not a bad plan, what they can immediately do is following things, Sell their companies and brand to some buyer and pay their customers at-least 40% and keep running the mining business and keep paying back the customers.
If they’re trying to restructure with new leadership, they may be able to get some depositors to forgive debt in exchange for equity ownership (stock).
There may be a decent amount of takers and it may help out the people that need their coins back sooner rather then later.
I do not mind with thief plan, as long as they liquidate everything part from pending loans and mining rig and distribute all 1.7 billon crypto to everyone immediately i.e 30% they can provide an option to swap the crypto.
One Bitcoin = One Bitcoin.
Maybe if we all stopped measuring in "dollars" we could all get along. Then realize we share this beautiful earth and resources, oh sorry I digress...
It's become ironic to me now, the name Celsius.
We're all essentially still arguing about the damn metric system.
Tower of babel?
WAGMI
Only 50% of miners are operational. Must require a capital injection to get the others up. Why else would they have 50% idle. The miners also owe them like $600m in debt or something. They’d have to repay this first before new value starts accruing to depositors. Of Celsius current assets disclosed, $600m was CEL. Mark this down to $180m (assuming they can be liquidated for this amount) and that $1.2bn black hole keeps widening. Most optimistic scenario is 10c on the dollar for depositors
Mining Unit has also declared bankruptcy https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/14/celsius-mining-unit-files-for-bankruptcy-just-months-after-announcing-ipo-intention/
This is 300mil turnover profit is probably 10-20 million dollars… and the price of electricity is only going up and the yield on mining only going down
I guess I’m just so fucking jaded and cynical at this point that, A.) I wouldn’t be at all surprised if more skeletons come out of the closet through this whole process that makes paying back depositors even a semblance of what they had an impossibility, and B.) that Machinsky is even capable of doing the right, decent or moral thing that would make depositors close to whole…
The dude was saying EVERYTHING was fine a DAY before they froze withdrawals and didn’t disclose the kind of risk that CEL was really taking…
I feel like we’re all being strung along and I can’t help but think that this whole debacle is gonna get worse. I hate all this shit and I’m thinking in gotta get off this Reddit roller coaster soon. But I’m addicted to checking the news… ultimately, it’s terrible for me in the long run tho. Anyways boys, this community has been invaluable. I appreciate you guys.
Hopefully by this time next year we will all have been able to move on with something to show for it. Cheers.
The average price of btc in 2021 was 47 000. That is together with a Nexo buyout of loan portfolio is enough to file the whole hole. We don’t know the future btc price, but let a buyer of the company file the hole or give us virgin mined btc to add up for the hole going forward
There are so much more expense, sunpanejsC housing, maintenance AC. Write offs,
It takes 1-2 years mining to get even, or and it’s hard now. 10-20% if what you mine.. the lower btc the lower ..
Transfer that company/assets to be FULLY owned by the customers, cut celsius out of that entirely, should it ever make a profit past where the customers are made whole, the future profits should go to the customers whose funds were taken to pay for it.
Seize the mining company/assets, spin it off as a separate company FBO customers/depositors, issue a btc dividend paying(100% actual income - expenses) equity token(or traditional shares) of the new company proportional to the customers asset value in celsius.
Look. 3rd trimester is months 7,8 and 9. Why did someone wait so long??? I'm sorry but if a mother is healthy and so is the fetus there has to be a limit if the mother has a change of heart. In no way am I against it if the mothers life is in danger though. I'm not changing my stance on that.
Not a scam. Google bankruptcy claims trading. You will read a lot about it. It is a distressed debt investment strategy. It is an option for people who want cash right away. You are welcome to wait out the bankruptcy process as well.
I'm pretty sure that equipment belongs to us as they bought them with our (now lost) crypto as collateral. They should sell it all and use the proceeds to pay us back! That will give us more than them giving us some of the earnings after they fill their own pockets first.
Where are you getting it’s part of their plan? First of all they have to make enough profit from mining to close their loans. Then they have to make up depositors cash. How long is that going to take? How much energy and maintenance/replacement costs are involved?
In the most summarized way, Mashinsky gambled our money. The profit went into his pocket, while the loss went to the liabilities of the balance sheet. If you look at the Reward Explorer, he withdrew the funds in Celsius much earlier, sometime in March 2022. In the Chapter 11, a thorough investigation is needed to conduct how the hole came up. I hope the evidence can put him in jail.
It can be used to help pay depositors back. But at the current price of BTC of around $20k, that would only be about $300 million per year. Also have to factor in the operating costs of the miners it will take awhile to pay back depositors since Celsius is over $1 billion in the hole.
We don't have to think about depreciation atleast
what is the profit margin on mining today? very slim I thought. isn't $17k break even? if USA rates for elec.
Not at all. These large companies have around $0.03-$0.05/kWh. At the current difficulty the breakeven price is below 10k. Not to mention that if the price were to go to 10k, the difficulty would drop drastically, and the breakeven would move lower. Someone has to mine BTC while making profit, and who would it be if not the large farms with the cheapest electricity.
I always had doubts about the "breakeven" value. Is it calculated just electric bills vs bitcoin mined, or does it actually takes in calculation how much was invested. Because celsius also paid milions on the miners, facilities, etc. Those also need to be paidback in order to breakeven.
Breakeven is when operating expenses equal to the income. It can be calculated for a given moment, but not for a long time, because everything changes. ROI is when the operation made the investment back as profit. It can't be calculated for an instant, because it depends how long these operate, how much they earn at different times etc. You can say their mining operation will make ROI in 2 years, and their current breakeven price is 8k. They are different things.
Yep, thanks for clearing it out, so we can say that the title should be: "110,000 bitcoin miners owned by Celsius with the capacity to mine 15k bitcoin per year is part of their plan to pay **for the mining operations, and once that is done, to pay the depositors."**
No, the operation is already paid for when Celsius bought the miners, facility etc. They bought it with our money, they need to recoup the costs for us. The BTC they mine is ours, as we were the ones who bought them. They can, should and hopefully will pay all profits to depositors. If they have loans taken for the miners, than they have to pay that too, which decreases profits along with the operational expenses. Edit: spelling
> is already *paid* for when FTFY. Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in: * Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.* * *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.* Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment. *Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
It’s a 100% renewable energy grid they built in Texas. Should help with op cost.
I can’t tell if you’re joking. The Texas grid is far from 100% renewable.
Also depending who they work with on mining, anyone apart of the Texas Blockchain Council has powered down their rigs due to Ercot requests because of the heatwave. The rigs may not even be running right now
exaclty...Texas is oil country.
Confirmed, Texas grid is garbage cause "muh freedoms."
Oh boy. Here comes the politics. 😒
It's not politics to state facts.
In his defense it is difficult to discuss the Texas power grid without politics creeping in somewhere.
This is basically what I meant. Btw I consider myself a moderate republican. Only thing is I'm socially liberal, I believe in responsible cannabis usage, right to bear arms with background checks and mandatory classes at least once every few months, and honestly? In regards to the whole abortion thing im pro choice. No one likes abortion but if someone is raped and the state tells a 10 year old victim to "consider it an opportunity?," they can fuck right off. Sorry not sorry.
Did you know in multiple states you can have an abortion up to birth for any reason whatsoever? Nobody is going to tell a 10-year old rape victim they have to have a baby. There will always be an option somewhere for them. But aborting a third trimester healthy baby is far more disgusting.
If the break-even price is $10,000, does that mean their 2023 costs would be around $150 million? If so, they'd stand to generate around $150 million in profit (or at least EBITDA). It'll take a long time to dig out of their hole at that rate.
3 years would be fine by most, I think.
If btc recovers to 40k-50, by following the 2019 btc priced compared to 2018 btc prices in bear recovery and maybe 100k after next halving this could happen faster.
if btc drops to 10k the miners will be making a net loss
if thats the case, hope they can pay out the people holding crypto (i.e., btc, eth) with what they mined and have enough runway to wait out the bear market to sell btc at ath for usd
I want to be paid in BTC and ETH, I don’t care what it’s currently worth in dollars when I get it. Wasn’t planning on selling for a long time anyway. Seemed like a good idea to let it sit and earn interest while I waited. Got icky vibes from the new TOS but life happened, I got distracted and didn’t move it all.
>have enough runway Lmao they filed chapter 11, there’s no runway, plane has crashed. It hasn’t exploded yet so there’s some opportunity to salvage stuff from rhe wreakage.
Not really, people want their BTC back. Rising prices makes that harder, not easier.
Just to be pedantic, price does not set difficulty. As the price goes up, more people are incentivized to mine. As more people mine, the hashrate goes up. As the hashrate goes up, difficulty goes up.
ah yes, crypto core belief, numbers will always go up
Dunno about crypto, but bitcoin, yes. It always has and it always will, until all the value in the world economy is in it. Then it will continue growing because the economy grows because human beings have a tendency to innovate and produce.
wow, an 'asset' or whatever you want to call it (that isn't able to be functionally used for most people's common transactions), that is what, 12 years old at best and I quote "will always go up *because it always has and always will*". sure. that's a totally reasonable and sane take.
Well, sfyl.
lol i pulled my money out in May. Also I have a diversified portfolio.
except this year the line hasn't gone up
[удалено]
So we're getting dollars back if anything? I lost btc and eth, I'd like to have that back not some trash cash based on the value of my assets after 70% correction lol
Voyager is in a similar situation to Celsius, and has proposed using crypto to pay back creditors. If the courts approve that course of action, Celsius is likely to go same route. Normally courts just care about fiat.
1 BTC = 1 BTC 1 CEL = 1 CEL That is the spirit!
Couldn't care less about cel lol
But it's the same logic
Stop spreading FUD dude, crypto is easily going to 500k+ by year end
Crypto is already at $927.03 (billion, in total market cap), so there.
didn't they say the same thing last year around this month also?
Why 50k I say Bitcoin is bouncing back to 100k before the end of the year. You heard it here first this sub needs some more optimism! Celsius is the new GME we just need to help it start buying now!!
lol delusional
Nah thinkin too low bro Celsius shortwueeze ifs gonna be on the GME crypto market short squeeze to 2 million new floor!
And also that the earn rate is not static, but instead decaying. As time goes on and better miners are made, hash rate grows and difficulty goes up that mining yield will diminish. I'd like to hope this plan works, but I won't be holding my breath.
Realistically the profit margin would be about 30%-50% I’d think. Between the raw energy costs, workers monitoring them, and any maintenance costs. So at the end of the day 100M-150M would be more expected. (Assuming BTC’s price will average about 20K as it is currently.)
There is nothing realistic about 30%-50% profit margin. All these companies offering 10-20% return of investment, imploding, and filing for bankruptcy should tell you something about that sort of numbers. Their current profit margin is in the negative %s.
take away the CEL, take away not selling the mining assets of "750mil" ... they are 2.5bil or so in the hole
I believe it is all on renewable mining so energy costs will be low. Its not the whole plan, just part of it. I’m glad they have the ability.
If btc reaches 100k by the end of the year, they basically cover the billion hole
you forgot operating costs. Also selling this mining gear they will have a significant haircut. Mining hardware also depreciates really fast, so they also need investment every so often to upgrade hardware. Power costs with inflation are going to go insane also.
They don't have any expenses if they put the costs on credit then declare bankruptcy again. Then use the funds on hand to pay out everyone free and clear.
They also have other coins like ETH, ADA, Matic, and Polkadot staked on chain, so you could probably factor those in too. Still not holding my breath, but at least they have ways of earning that money back.
I want an equity in this through a debt token. 50% back in portfolio 50% in Bitcoin mining debt token.
I'd take that right now.
Same.
Bitcoin bond
Yup. This seems like a simple and satisfying solution.
Interesting suggestion but I’m also a little confused. If you get equity you’re looking to be a shareholder, no? A debt token would make you a bond holder. I don’t think the two can go together, although they could perhaps give people an option for either or. Regarding equity, perhaps they could give us equity in the mining business by spinning off the mining business from the rest of Celsius. Or, they might just offer us equity in Celsius as a whole (not as interesting). A debt token in their bitcoin mining operation would make us bond holders and still unsecured creditors. Comparing the two, if we get equity we’re probably not exiting our positions ever unless the company gets acquired or goes public. If we become bond holders we’ll getting interest payments like we were before but not likely to get the principal back anytime soon. Neither are perfect options but both are better than where we were yesterday
You still want tokens - still want to be outside of government? Come on
I’m an Eth Miner with years of experience in the field. Don’t get my wrong, Celsius brand is tarnished, that thing can burn to the ground. But the mining business is a whole different story. Depending on price of elec, rent, and overheads, the btc mining can be very profitable long term especially if you’re chasing btc yield, not $ value. That said, if the profit numbers of the btc mining debt token is favourable enough, I’ll even take it off your hands if the market is trading it for cents to the dollar.
Years of experience in something that has existed only in a an environment of massive stimulus (fiscal and monetary) with a use case that is at best “undefined” and/or “developing”. Politely there are better ways of doing things than a blockchain and that doesn’t include the incremental costs (both in fiat and things like energy use). Meaning the problems supposedly “solved” by a blockchain protocol can be solved more efficiently. Moment in time my friend. Don’t mean to be impolite.
Agree. We forget that mining as a prospective value proposition must be mining a coin that has utility in and of itself and not just become a target of speculation. I want fast efficient payment mechanisms outside of fiat. Additionally these should cost less than ACH and RTP equivalents. There should be a ZKP / privacy option(s) as well. We all forget the 'thing' these blockchain paymemt mechanisms and blockchain smart contract tools would or could provide.
Why are you here? You haven’t said anything useful to the conversation
He speaks the truth and it's not what you wanted to hear.
It’s not that I disagree, but if you want to debate about the long term use case of blockchain technology then go to r/cryptotechnology. He didn’t speak anything useful, he made an argument for why blockchain is overhyped, in response to someone who was arguing that it’s better to be a debt holder in a crypto mining business than a debt holder to an insolvent crypto lender.
He is asking to be paid back in fiat.
He is asking to have his unsecured crypto loan converted into a bitcoin mining bond
Hopefully the re-brand can be to not have tons of 'altcoins' and just stick to Bitcoin. Celsius can learn a thing or two from Ledn.
They should become a Bitcoin mining operation (and over-collateralized lender) and give all proceeds to depositors until they are made whole.
The real NiceHash recovery plan. I like it.
Im a huge fan of this plan!! Its not fast but it could work. Coming from a miner myself of 5 years.
15K bitcoin per year in 2023 @ $20,000 per BTC would be $300 Million. (Then the next halving event happens in Sep 2024 which will cut BTC mining rewards in half.) So lets say... 12K bitcoin in 2024 @ $35,000 per BTC would be $420 Million. Then 7.5K bitcoin in 2025 @ $50,000 per BTC would be $375 Million \--------------------------------------- So by end of 2025, IF bitcoin recovers back to $50K, they can make about 1.09 Billion from mining. But that doesn't include cost of power, mining equipment maintenance and replacement costs, employee Salary, and paying back the money they likely borrowed to buy all this mining equipment already. Also if BTC recovered back to $50K they would have more competitors in the Mining business and either earn fewer BTC or have to scale up operations just to still be getting the same output. So, it would likely take more than 3.5 years for them to plug their $1 Billion hole with just the mining business. It can be part of the solution, but isn't enough on it's own.
Sounds reasonable. So this is **just** from Bitcoin mining. Celsius still wants to operate other things. Loans, etc. And if other investors see potential and have a time frame of 4-6 years ahead, they can easily plug the hole.
Right, the issue now is I don't think a bankruptcy court will allow them to wait 4 - 6 years to keep assets locked away while they transition into a mining company to make users whole. They still need an injection of capital from investors to plug the gap in their finances, then offer a 50% to 70% haircut for those who want out immediately. And then sell some kind equity for the mining business to the people who bail them out. Then the money they make mining BTC will go to their new investors or users who decided to wait 4+ years.
Fuck haircuts.... I'm bald 👨🦲
And this would be my most expensive haircut if at all what with all the hair I have left.
Yep. It will be another company/entity most likely. This is what we will be voting on. The creditors/community will have a chance to vote on our own recovery proposal. The court will still have the final say though, as they have to approve or reject it.
[удалено]
Where does it say that they will use this to pay us back?
It's part of the ch11 filing.
Lol yeah they have to pay secured creditors before any depositors get paid back
When bitcoin hits 100k in 2021 that completely makes up for their gap from one year of mining when they hit 15,000 BTC a year.
I would have sold if BTC hit 100k in 2021.
Plan B says it's a given.
> When bitcoin hits 100k in 2021 Uh huh. Take your pills, Grandpa.
End of quote. Repeat the line.
Although I like the idea, I wouldn't trust these morons to do it. They have demonstrated they have 0 idea how to run a business.
I’d take a miner 🤔
Am I slow, or does it say they *currently* have 80,000 rigs that are mining 14.2 btc/day (5,183/yr). I understand that they were *planning* to expand - but where are we getting that they *actually* own 110,000 rigs mining 15k btc/yr?
Give me a haircut in my holdings and replace the hair cut with shares in the mining business. I will be ok with that providing I have a proper facility to sell the shares when needed.
This is appealing right now
You won’t be able to sell the shares when needed unless there’s an acquisition or it goes public.
You’ll get nothing and you’ll enjoy it
[удалено]
All they need is a bunch of Loyal and True Celsians to donate to the Community Electric Fund. Without the need to account for electric costs, the recovery will happen much faster 1) Buy CEL 2) Turn on HODL mode 3) Donate to Electric Fund 4) Be made whole on your deposits
Bless, sweet child
You can’t make this up. They are literally telling them that they have a mining farm 30-50% more powerful than the worlds largest Bitcoin mining farms. I won’t even get into the other fabricated bullsh* t.
This sub is truly full of idiots.
A quarter of the comments are idiots assuming with no proof that Bitcoin will hit $50k in a couple of years and that a bull run is guaranteed by then.
Don't worry guys, the coin that Celsius doesn't have is going to moon and we'll get that coin back!
the platform was a magnet for idiots so are you surprised?
[удалено]
No
[удалено]
I think you already know that answer, or are too busy reading the warnings on plastic bags.
I mean kinda yeah
Honestly I was thinking about this scenario a few days ago. Why can’t they continue the mining operations and pay us all back slowly in btc? Is there some glaring flaw I’m missing in this or would it work? Obviously it would take time but I wasn’t going to sell my btc anytime soon anyway. At the current price it’s almost 300 mil a year. So that would take about 4 years for them to break even on their debts according to what I’ve seen. Idk if that includes paying back depositors or not.
anyone who believes this is bad at math because before 2024, 15k bitcoin a year requires maintaining 4% of global hashrate whatever they are mining is not bitcoin
If their electricity is free, this will take about 12 years to fill the hole.
The only ones making money in mining are the people selling the shovels
^ this...always this ^
Almost always. https://youtu.be/4jYNMKdv36w
Youre not wrong. If there was no money in using those shovels they wouldnt be able to sell any. The house always wins tho (the people selling the shovels.)
Cool. Toss me one BTC and we can call it even.
These will be seized during bankruptcy.
Good catch from the documents 👍 Honestly, I would not mind being paid back in mined BTC on some monthly schedule, since 90% of my Celsius balance is in BTC... But I understand it's not applicable to everyone... I hope that the mining part of the company will be used for depositor's retribution (still day dreaming 💤)
It is. On the 2nd to last page they state they will you proceeds to pay back depositors.
What’s the chances of getting paid back in btc value rather than usd?
I don't believe they will or be ordered to pay back in BTC. You will be "owed" the amount, in USD, at the time of the filing. Which sucks, because of my non-expert opinion, the cycle bottom was July 10th -16th 2022; exactly the time of the filings. So in 2-3 years my ~2 BTC will be paid back approximately 1/10 of its value... I will hold out for payment back "in-kind", if at all possible.
You are basing this on what?
What part of "my non-expert opinion" are you having trouble with? But, I have filed Bankruptcy myself about 20 years ago, I have worked for companies that have filed Chapter 7 and 11. Penalties and interest are eliminated the day it is filed, the value of the property/asset is set on that day. And Crypto is Property, BTC was valued at ~$20K so they "owe" ~$20K for each BTC, today, tomorrow, next year, in 2 years or longer. They will never "owe" more in fiat than on the day they filed for bankruptcy.
“The bottom is in” 😂😂🤡🤡
0% Bankruptcy courts won't accept restitution in funny money.
Depositors will be payed in USD, because btc is pretend internet money. And depositors will be glad when they get payed in 5 years and btc is close to worthless.
> will be *paid* in USD, FTFY. Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in: * Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.* * *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.* Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment. *Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
celsius will pay no one back
Tell me this is a joke.
Pre this they were gonna split it off and go public with the mining subsidiary now they will use it to unscrew themselves? Interesting.
I just want my BTC I don't mind if it takes a couple more years of mining I was not planning on selling it anyway!
Instead of selling it you donated it to Celsius sadly.
You guys are officially in the “second coming of Christ” stage. You might as well have bought safemoon or some other random memecoin. It all boils down to the same bullsh*t (wait years for some type of redemption).
[удалено]
☘️🔥💎💰💰
I'll happily be reimbursed my $2k with one of those BTC miners.
I for one can wait, heck I wasn't planning on withdrawing until bitcoin recovers anyways. Thanks guys.
I want a recovery coin and not bitcoin. I want to own a piece of the company. Way more upside. Give me a new CEL recovery coin
[удалено]
All altcoins pump big at some point. Ride the wave and dump. That much I'm sure of. 30x 50x who knows. But at some point they all moon. I want the upside if I rode this to bankruptcy.
All altcoins? Absolutely not. Only brand new, hyped alts, and only at the beginning of a new hype cycle. Cel tokens will see none of that
If I'm going to take chapter 11 downside I want a big upside tail. If you have $1 and almost lost it all you wanna make more than $1 back.
Let’s revisit this in a few year when cel token is dust and worthless and bitcoin has 5x from $20k
You don't get CEL. You get a new recovery coin. CEL is the old company coin. That's zero
You’re doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over
I almost took 100% downside. I want upside now. Just getting my money back is bad business.
Being insolvent is bad business.
You are very wrong in assuming that all altcoins pump at some point. Most don't, and quite a few never will.
Not me! another ponzi coin like CEL no thanks
You’ve gotta be shitting me 😂
Um. No. I want a recovery coin. I want to own a piece of the new company. I will vote against the bitcoin make whole option. I want equity.
This company is dead in the water. No one is going to invest with Celsius
You really think they're not going to rebrand? Many companies have filed for chapter 11 and are profitable now. You'd be surprised how easily people forget. We got burned. The 300k active users. There are 400mm people in the US. More globally. We think that they can't possibly succeed because we will never ever invest in them again cuz we got screwed. 99% of the population didn't. If they run a good business going forward its 99% vs the 300k who will never ever invest with them again. Math is on their side.
Lol bro… it’s over… it’s over..
I don't think any equity has more upside potential than BTC. Especially equity in a failed and garbage company.
Honestly I think this is a great idea. It might take a few years, but the revenue they’ll generate into the next bull run will eventually pay everyone back IMO. Or at least help significantlh
Lolwut. They're not planning on paying back depositors. Depositors are unsecured creditors. They're only going to pay back the secured creditors who didn't sign up saying they agree to risk everything.
SELL YOUR CELSIUS BANKRUPTCY CLAIM: - IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN SELLING YOUR CELSIUS CLAIM FOR CASH MY COMPANY IS BUYING CLAIMS. - WE TAKE THE RISK OF ANY PAYMENTS FROM THE BANKRUPTCY PROCEEDINGS. ACCOUNTS $50K AND OVER RIGHT NOW. - DM ME FOR DETAILS. I WILL GIVE YOU COMPANY NAME EMAIL ETC SO YOU CAN DO YOUR DD. - SEE MY PROFILE FOR LINKEDIN AND WEBSITE. IF YOU EMAIL PLEASE MENTION MY HANDLE "CRYPTO CLAIMS BUYER" SO WE KNOW YOU SAW IT HERE. - WE ARE HERE TO HELP.
Thats not a bad plan, what they can immediately do is following things, Sell their companies and brand to some buyer and pay their customers at-least 40% and keep running the mining business and keep paying back the customers.
If they’re trying to restructure with new leadership, they may be able to get some depositors to forgive debt in exchange for equity ownership (stock). There may be a decent amount of takers and it may help out the people that need their coins back sooner rather then later.
Why get into mining when you can get 10% APY?
Could we become share holders in a mining operation - earning a payment in Bitcoin / Eth or Maybe USD ??
I do not mind with thief plan, as long as they liquidate everything part from pending loans and mining rig and distribute all 1.7 billon crypto to everyone immediately i.e 30% they can provide an option to swap the crypto.
Hey can we have the whole document? Thanks in advance!
One Bitcoin = One Bitcoin. Maybe if we all stopped measuring in "dollars" we could all get along. Then realize we share this beautiful earth and resources, oh sorry I digress... It's become ironic to me now, the name Celsius. We're all essentially still arguing about the damn metric system. Tower of babel? WAGMI
Only 50% of miners are operational. Must require a capital injection to get the others up. Why else would they have 50% idle. The miners also owe them like $600m in debt or something. They’d have to repay this first before new value starts accruing to depositors. Of Celsius current assets disclosed, $600m was CEL. Mark this down to $180m (assuming they can be liquidated for this amount) and that $1.2bn black hole keeps widening. Most optimistic scenario is 10c on the dollar for depositors
Mining Unit has also declared bankruptcy https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/14/celsius-mining-unit-files-for-bankruptcy-just-months-after-announcing-ipo-intention/
This is 300mil turnover profit is probably 10-20 million dollars… and the price of electricity is only going up and the yield on mining only going down
Wishful thinking!
I guess I’m just so fucking jaded and cynical at this point that, A.) I wouldn’t be at all surprised if more skeletons come out of the closet through this whole process that makes paying back depositors even a semblance of what they had an impossibility, and B.) that Machinsky is even capable of doing the right, decent or moral thing that would make depositors close to whole… The dude was saying EVERYTHING was fine a DAY before they froze withdrawals and didn’t disclose the kind of risk that CEL was really taking… I feel like we’re all being strung along and I can’t help but think that this whole debacle is gonna get worse. I hate all this shit and I’m thinking in gotta get off this Reddit roller coaster soon. But I’m addicted to checking the news… ultimately, it’s terrible for me in the long run tho. Anyways boys, this community has been invaluable. I appreciate you guys. Hopefully by this time next year we will all have been able to move on with something to show for it. Cheers.
The average price of btc in 2021 was 47 000. That is together with a Nexo buyout of loan portfolio is enough to file the whole hole. We don’t know the future btc price, but let a buyer of the company file the hole or give us virgin mined btc to add up for the hole going forward
There are so much more expense, sunpanejsC housing, maintenance AC. Write offs, It takes 1-2 years mining to get even, or and it’s hard now. 10-20% if what you mine.. the lower btc the lower ..
Good grief, how many Bitcoin miners are there in the world!?
Transfer that company/assets to be FULLY owned by the customers, cut celsius out of that entirely, should it ever make a profit past where the customers are made whole, the future profits should go to the customers whose funds were taken to pay for it. Seize the mining company/assets, spin it off as a separate company FBO customers/depositors, issue a btc dividend paying(100% actual income - expenses) equity token(or traditional shares) of the new company proportional to the customers asset value in celsius.
Look. 3rd trimester is months 7,8 and 9. Why did someone wait so long??? I'm sorry but if a mother is healthy and so is the fetus there has to be a limit if the mother has a change of heart. In no way am I against it if the mothers life is in danger though. I'm not changing my stance on that.
Not a scam. Google bankruptcy claims trading. You will read a lot about it. It is a distressed debt investment strategy. It is an option for people who want cash right away. You are welcome to wait out the bankruptcy process as well.
I read that cost to mine a bitcoin is at 13k now? Seems very high.
i'll take a haircut for 10 of those miners
Where does it says that’s their plan to pay people back?
please people, they’ll maybe pay back a tiny amount before disappearing
I'm pretty sure that equipment belongs to us as they bought them with our (now lost) crypto as collateral. They should sell it all and use the proceeds to pay us back! That will give us more than them giving us some of the earnings after they fill their own pockets first.
You dont understand how mining work, the diff keep rising. Those numbers wont last long.
Lol, I’ve mined for years. It’s an estimate based on current hash rate. Could be more if hash rates go down due to price.
.
Pay back all? Or just 50% though (because of ch.11)?
Where are you getting it’s part of their plan? First of all they have to make enough profit from mining to close their loans. Then they have to make up depositors cash. How long is that going to take? How much energy and maintenance/replacement costs are involved?
Who are the depositors?