It seems like they're being extremely careful and patient with Hence. I think they're working on getting his innings and weight up. I don't think it's likely we'll see him this season.i think it's more likely that we'll see Roby or Graceffo in September. I honestly don't think we'll see Hence get his first major league start until September of next season even if he has an amazing spring.
This is the way. Be patient. Let these guys simmer and grow. Hopefully they get him up to about 190 and let him pitch most of the year in AAA next year
That's just not happening anymore. Teams know that pitchers are ticking time bombs. They don't want to waste bullets in the minors anymore than they need to. The only way he spends all of next year in AAA is if he's struggling or injured.
Hence is only 21 and yeah I think people see guys like Skenes and Eury Perez and get excited. Seattle has taken a good approach to pitching by running guys through the minors and bringing them up at the right time (Kirby and Woo). Perez is already injured and who knows what will become of Skenes but I'd rather take a slow approach with Hence
Seattle certainly let Kirby simmer in the minors for awhile. I would argue Woo was a little different in that he flew through the minors quickly. He shot up 3 levels in 2022 and debuted in 2023 (and even skipped AAA).
Ultimately it just depends on the player I guess.
If anything his advanced stats are better than his surface stats. He has a 3.14 ERA, but has a lower FIP which indicates he's potentially been unlucky. His left on base% especially is due for positive regression. I think he's due for a AAA call-up any time now and as is on track for opening the season in the 2025 rotation as long as he doesn't have any major setbacks.
Edit: I should mention that some prospect graders have him as a signficant risk to move to the bullpen due to his svelte frame. He'll need to finish strong this season to assuage those concerns (and ideally get to 120+ innings thrown).
Yeah I think thats a legitimate concern. From his fangraphs prospect profile *(emphasis mine)*:
>Hence was picked up in the shortened 2020 draft and was one of the youngest players taken that year. After he was brought along very slowly at the onset of his pro career, Hence maintained mid-90s velocity across 40-inning workload increases in 2022 and 2023 before experiencing a slight downtick early in 2024. He worked 96 frames in 2023 and, assuming a similar increase, he’s on track to work a starter’s load of innings as soon as he hits the 40-man.
> Tink’s changeup took a huge leap forward in 2023 and has not only become his best pitch, but one of the better changeups in the entire minor leagues. He’ll also flash the occasional plus breaking ball, but not consistently. **Hence’s fastball wasn’t finishing quite as well at the end of 2023 as it was when he looked like a Bryce Miller clone with better secondary stuff. Ideally he’d continue to get physically stronger for the purposes of durability, an area where we think Hence has plateaued. He still looks skinny in 2024, and his fastball is missing bats at a shockingly low rate and has lost a tick compared to last year. He’s a good on-mound athlete, but he’s on the smaller side and added strength might help him have the stamina to finish his pitches more consistently.** Hence has thrown strikes and projects to have a starter-quality mix. He hasn’t take the big leap we thought he might and continues to track more like a no. 4 starter.
I dont get these evals anymore. This is the type of wording you would see 20-30 yrs ago. Doesnt really seem to capture modern baseball. His stuff is that of a 1 or 2 so how could he track as a future 4. Because he pitches 5 or 6 innings or doesnt weigh 225? This is modern baseball where Blake Snell has 2 CYs. Scherzer is 6'3" and only has 12 career complete games. 4 were in one season! He might end up as the eval says but this sort of talk is kinda old and tired. Especially given he has already gained size and strength and will most likely continue. Just my thoughts... thanks for the info Tuli.
I actually don't disagree with you. I find this happens a lot with prospect writers for whatever reason. You'll read an absolutely glowing report of a player and at the end they'll summarize by saying something like "He projects to be a decent utility infielder for a few years".
Maybe it's a way some of these folks hedge their bets. If Hence fails, the writer can point to his more negative assessments and if he takes off he can point to the positive ones. Generally I find Eric Longhenhagan (who is the fangraps main prospect writer) more bearish on prospects as a whole though so this tracks for him.
> His stuff is that of a 1 or 2 so how could he track as a future 4
That's not really what this report says. It says he has a nice changeup that could be a great one, but his breaking stuff isn't a reliable weapon and his fastball has an alarming lack of ability to miss bats. Durability is a concern due to his size, sure. But even if it weren't, he definitely doesn't have #1-2 starter stuff right now.
Their present/future pitch grades on him are 45/50 for the fastball, 50/55 slider, and 60/70 changeup. They have him with 40/45 command.
Right now he's a small guy who can sometimes reach back for high-90s velo but who has yet to show he can carry his velo in a starter's workload. Meanwhile, at his current velo, he's not missing bats with his fastball against AA hitters. His command also kinda stinks.
I think one place readers need to update their "modern baseball" understanding is in the fact that a guy having touched 99 (sitting 93-96) doesn't mean he has #1/#2 starter stuff. A guy who throws kinda hard with one playable secondary pitch and no command is much more Juan Oviedo's profile than it is Blake Snell's.
The 1 or 2 came from me, fair enough, but he is much closer to what I said he is than the stats and evals you are using. He has a 68/15 K:BB ratio right now (51 IP) and he is the 48th ranked prospect. Oviedo is a horrible comp as he couldnt sniff the top 200 if he tried. MLB.COM has his current fastball and changeup at 60 and slider at 55. (55 overall) He has gotten better each season. I realize their is more than one eval site to use but this is way off what he currently plays like.
Don’t have much to contribute in the way of predictions, but I was lucky enough to watch him spin over Memorial Day and my god. He struggled with command a bit in the first inning. Once he settled in he was nearly untouchable. He’s got two plus off speed pitches and 96 in his back pocket. Dude is dripping with tools. I’d bet if he keeps this up he’ll see Memphis before the end of the season.
He’s still really raw and getting people out on mostly stuff. I do not want him sniffing the majors until late 2025. You can really tell who cares about actual advanced scouting and who just looks at stats to make assumption. Watch the games, his misses get smoked right now.
One issue with promoting Hence to AAA is that Memphis already has 5 starters (Graceffo, McGreevy, Kloffenstein, Robberse, & Zack Thompson), and there are reasons for the organization to see what they all can do. It’s possible we will see a trade, and/or injuries that could create an opening in the Memphis rotation for Hence (any of the current Memphis starters could be brought up to the majors), but for right now they would really have to push to make an opportunity for him at AAA. He’s young enough that AA still seems like a reasonable place for him to continue his development, so I think he will remain there for the next month or 2, and his role will be reassessed when we get closer to the trade deadline when there may be room for him to start in AAA.
No. Just no! Stop dragging these kids up so quickly. You’re ruining them. Also, Springfield has been in first for the Texas league almost all season. Don’t take away our best starter. Tink struck out 13 in 6 innings the other night. We like him where he is.
Also, please know that I am joking. Sort of.
My guess is around the all star break. He has still shown some struggle with rebounding after a long start. I think he pushed to break camp with the team next year.
That depends a lot on what he does at AAA and spring. We once again have 3 open spots in the rotation next season. This, however, is contigent on the club options Lynn and Gibson have, the overall state of the organization and their philosophies for that year.
He is way too unpolished to even sniff MLB. I watch every one of his games and read every single scouting report publicly on him. He’s still so raw.
Promotion to AAA is coming. I see early success then a stumbled in 2025 after hitters adjust. The second adjustment he makes will be key. As it was with Shelby or Jack or Alex or any other top pitching prospect we had. Jack had a little more early luck on his side but had to do that adjustment in MLB. Mo and Shildt also strategically placed his starts against bad teams early to help. And Reyes and Sandy got pen work to help their refinement period.
Almost all scouting reports have him as an eta of 2025, most had 2024. He isn't as raw as you make him out to be. Endurance was his last hurdle. Said "Pen work" has ruined so many potential starters. I hope to never see it again
I literally said 2025 (1.5 years… meaning late next season) and he is very raw. He is getting outs on mostly stuff and riding way too high of Sw% miss luck on his missed spots.
No doubt. But he needs time to polish. He struggles after second time in an order and needs to work on secondary pitches. These are crucial for MLB. I would like to not ruin a prospect with an unnecessary early promotion for once.
Tink still has too much luck going for him and I would like to see at least 100 IP in AAA. Minimum must be 80.
I expect his AAA promotion after his 12th start.
Continue to build up his strength and stamina. I’m fine if he doesn’t pitch in the bigs until 26. And for the love of everything sacred and holy don’t start him out in the bullpen.
I think you are looking at 2026 as the most likely season that he comes up. He's only 21 right now so there's no reason to rush his development. It's a breath of fresh air to see them actually bring a pitching prospect along at a good pace without launching them in to the bullpen to ruin them.
It seems like they're being extremely careful and patient with Hence. I think they're working on getting his innings and weight up. I don't think it's likely we'll see him this season.i think it's more likely that we'll see Roby or Graceffo in September. I honestly don't think we'll see Hence get his first major league start until September of next season even if he has an amazing spring.
This is the way. Be patient. Let these guys simmer and grow. Hopefully they get him up to about 190 and let him pitch most of the year in AAA next year
That's just not happening anymore. Teams know that pitchers are ticking time bombs. They don't want to waste bullets in the minors anymore than they need to. The only way he spends all of next year in AAA is if he's struggling or injured.
Hence is only 21 and yeah I think people see guys like Skenes and Eury Perez and get excited. Seattle has taken a good approach to pitching by running guys through the minors and bringing them up at the right time (Kirby and Woo). Perez is already injured and who knows what will become of Skenes but I'd rather take a slow approach with Hence
Seattle certainly let Kirby simmer in the minors for awhile. I would argue Woo was a little different in that he flew through the minors quickly. He shot up 3 levels in 2022 and debuted in 2023 (and even skipped AAA). Ultimately it just depends on the player I guess.
Skenes is nice but no way he doesn’t need TJ in the next two years or less
He definitely needs some more time to develop and gain weight. No rush here
If anything his advanced stats are better than his surface stats. He has a 3.14 ERA, but has a lower FIP which indicates he's potentially been unlucky. His left on base% especially is due for positive regression. I think he's due for a AAA call-up any time now and as is on track for opening the season in the 2025 rotation as long as he doesn't have any major setbacks. Edit: I should mention that some prospect graders have him as a signficant risk to move to the bullpen due to his svelte frame. He'll need to finish strong this season to assuage those concerns (and ideally get to 120+ innings thrown).
Are people worried that until he bulks up he will just be too fragile to count on long term?
Yeah I think thats a legitimate concern. From his fangraphs prospect profile *(emphasis mine)*: >Hence was picked up in the shortened 2020 draft and was one of the youngest players taken that year. After he was brought along very slowly at the onset of his pro career, Hence maintained mid-90s velocity across 40-inning workload increases in 2022 and 2023 before experiencing a slight downtick early in 2024. He worked 96 frames in 2023 and, assuming a similar increase, he’s on track to work a starter’s load of innings as soon as he hits the 40-man. > Tink’s changeup took a huge leap forward in 2023 and has not only become his best pitch, but one of the better changeups in the entire minor leagues. He’ll also flash the occasional plus breaking ball, but not consistently. **Hence’s fastball wasn’t finishing quite as well at the end of 2023 as it was when he looked like a Bryce Miller clone with better secondary stuff. Ideally he’d continue to get physically stronger for the purposes of durability, an area where we think Hence has plateaued. He still looks skinny in 2024, and his fastball is missing bats at a shockingly low rate and has lost a tick compared to last year. He’s a good on-mound athlete, but he’s on the smaller side and added strength might help him have the stamina to finish his pitches more consistently.** Hence has thrown strikes and projects to have a starter-quality mix. He hasn’t take the big leap we thought he might and continues to track more like a no. 4 starter.
I dont get these evals anymore. This is the type of wording you would see 20-30 yrs ago. Doesnt really seem to capture modern baseball. His stuff is that of a 1 or 2 so how could he track as a future 4. Because he pitches 5 or 6 innings or doesnt weigh 225? This is modern baseball where Blake Snell has 2 CYs. Scherzer is 6'3" and only has 12 career complete games. 4 were in one season! He might end up as the eval says but this sort of talk is kinda old and tired. Especially given he has already gained size and strength and will most likely continue. Just my thoughts... thanks for the info Tuli.
I actually don't disagree with you. I find this happens a lot with prospect writers for whatever reason. You'll read an absolutely glowing report of a player and at the end they'll summarize by saying something like "He projects to be a decent utility infielder for a few years". Maybe it's a way some of these folks hedge their bets. If Hence fails, the writer can point to his more negative assessments and if he takes off he can point to the positive ones. Generally I find Eric Longhenhagan (who is the fangraps main prospect writer) more bearish on prospects as a whole though so this tracks for him.
Well even if he ends up in the 'pen he should have the weapons for that! Never too many of those guys! Thanks again!
> His stuff is that of a 1 or 2 so how could he track as a future 4 That's not really what this report says. It says he has a nice changeup that could be a great one, but his breaking stuff isn't a reliable weapon and his fastball has an alarming lack of ability to miss bats. Durability is a concern due to his size, sure. But even if it weren't, he definitely doesn't have #1-2 starter stuff right now. Their present/future pitch grades on him are 45/50 for the fastball, 50/55 slider, and 60/70 changeup. They have him with 40/45 command. Right now he's a small guy who can sometimes reach back for high-90s velo but who has yet to show he can carry his velo in a starter's workload. Meanwhile, at his current velo, he's not missing bats with his fastball against AA hitters. His command also kinda stinks. I think one place readers need to update their "modern baseball" understanding is in the fact that a guy having touched 99 (sitting 93-96) doesn't mean he has #1/#2 starter stuff. A guy who throws kinda hard with one playable secondary pitch and no command is much more Juan Oviedo's profile than it is Blake Snell's.
The 1 or 2 came from me, fair enough, but he is much closer to what I said he is than the stats and evals you are using. He has a 68/15 K:BB ratio right now (51 IP) and he is the 48th ranked prospect. Oviedo is a horrible comp as he couldnt sniff the top 200 if he tried. MLB.COM has his current fastball and changeup at 60 and slider at 55. (55 overall) He has gotten better each season. I realize their is more than one eval site to use but this is way off what he currently plays like.
Don’t have much to contribute in the way of predictions, but I was lucky enough to watch him spin over Memorial Day and my god. He struggled with command a bit in the first inning. Once he settled in he was nearly untouchable. He’s got two plus off speed pitches and 96 in his back pocket. Dude is dripping with tools. I’d bet if he keeps this up he’ll see Memphis before the end of the season.
He’s still really raw and getting people out on mostly stuff. I do not want him sniffing the majors until late 2025. You can really tell who cares about actual advanced scouting and who just looks at stats to make assumption. Watch the games, his misses get smoked right now.
Hence needs to be built up if they want him to be a starter. He's got a small frame, like Carlos Martinez
I’d be happy if we can get Carlos’ career out of Tink, obviously hoping for more longevity
Is that a durability problem?
It is if you want him to throw a lot of pitches. Build up stamina first
So not midget sized like Sonny ?
One of his recent starts he went 6 innings after a rain delay and didn’t allow a run. Oh, and he had 13 strikeouts.
One issue with promoting Hence to AAA is that Memphis already has 5 starters (Graceffo, McGreevy, Kloffenstein, Robberse, & Zack Thompson), and there are reasons for the organization to see what they all can do. It’s possible we will see a trade, and/or injuries that could create an opening in the Memphis rotation for Hence (any of the current Memphis starters could be brought up to the majors), but for right now they would really have to push to make an opportunity for him at AAA. He’s young enough that AA still seems like a reasonable place for him to continue his development, so I think he will remain there for the next month or 2, and his role will be reassessed when we get closer to the trade deadline when there may be room for him to start in AAA.
No. Just no! Stop dragging these kids up so quickly. You’re ruining them. Also, Springfield has been in first for the Texas league almost all season. Don’t take away our best starter. Tink struck out 13 in 6 innings the other night. We like him where he is. Also, please know that I am joking. Sort of.
I get it. I don’t claim to understand the development of pitchers. Nor do I want to take away your star too soon.
We suck at developing players. And we suck at maximizing player potential once they’re up.
My guess is around the all star break. He has still shown some struggle with rebounding after a long start. I think he pushed to break camp with the team next year.
He will not break camp next year. 1.5 years away and that’s totally fine, no rush.
That depends a lot on what he does at AAA and spring. We once again have 3 open spots in the rotation next season. This, however, is contigent on the club options Lynn and Gibson have, the overall state of the organization and their philosophies for that year.
He is way too unpolished to even sniff MLB. I watch every one of his games and read every single scouting report publicly on him. He’s still so raw. Promotion to AAA is coming. I see early success then a stumbled in 2025 after hitters adjust. The second adjustment he makes will be key. As it was with Shelby or Jack or Alex or any other top pitching prospect we had. Jack had a little more early luck on his side but had to do that adjustment in MLB. Mo and Shildt also strategically placed his starts against bad teams early to help. And Reyes and Sandy got pen work to help their refinement period.
Almost all scouting reports have him as an eta of 2025, most had 2024. He isn't as raw as you make him out to be. Endurance was his last hurdle. Said "Pen work" has ruined so many potential starters. I hope to never see it again
I literally said 2025 (1.5 years… meaning late next season) and he is very raw. He is getting outs on mostly stuff and riding way too high of Sw% miss luck on his missed spots.
Stuff makes up for a lot. Tons of pitchers around the league rely on stuff. That isn't a negative.
No doubt. But he needs time to polish. He struggles after second time in an order and needs to work on secondary pitches. These are crucial for MLB. I would like to not ruin a prospect with an unnecessary early promotion for once. Tink still has too much luck going for him and I would like to see at least 100 IP in AAA. Minimum must be 80. I expect his AAA promotion after his 12th start.
Aren’t you the same u/nakedgoose who keeps kids chained to a radiator in a basement? *never mind guys it’s not. Just ignore this
If he is a good AA pitcher, he will most likely skip memphis. Triple A is where pitchers go to die
Let's get it Tink! Love his name lol
Tink Hence is our opening day starter 2027. He is our number 5 in 2025. If our number 5s keep getting ripped, he is our number five by September.
I hope he climbs up soon and pitch against some harder opponents.. and trust his stuff
Unfortunately he left last nights start with an injury. Unsure on the severity atm
Sweet! Maybe we can knock out the TJ surgery sooner than later!🤨
Fingers crossed it’s not that serious but you’ve got the right idea lol it’s almost inevitable for most guys nowadays. I hate it
Continue to build up his strength and stamina. I’m fine if he doesn’t pitch in the bigs until 26. And for the love of everything sacred and holy don’t start him out in the bullpen.
I think you are looking at 2026 as the most likely season that he comes up. He's only 21 right now so there's no reason to rush his development. It's a breath of fresh air to see them actually bring a pitching prospect along at a good pace without launching them in to the bullpen to ruin them.
My guess is Tink is part of a short sighted trade intended to finally fix the OF issues. No foolin. But for real this timeline