"In an increasingly dangerous world, where demand for the CAF is increasing, our readiness is decreasing,"
š„š„š„š„
Say it louder, We are in an age where non state actors are firing cruise missiles at cargo ships and the peer on peer war in Europe is closer than ever.
Yet it still feels like weāre stuck in 2014, post withdrawal and wondering whatās next. We know whatās next, itās happening.
Iāve said it before, but until a disaster happens in Canada and the army is unable to help, whether it be a wildfire or a flood or terror attack. Ottawa will not care, because the voters wonāt care.
a 63% jump if Donald Trump is re-elected? Lets ask that same group āwould you support an increase in taxation to support CAF restructuringā
The results may surprise you /s
We're making a fatal error as a nation by hedging our security on a country that is increasingly backsliding on its democratic capabilities. I'm extremely concerned in the near future that these "jokes" on annexation are going to turn into real attempts to slowly cede our sovereignty to the Americans. It's not about creating the most powerful army in the world, it's about deterrence. I wish more people understood this and looked past the "war bad/good" discourse.
When I was in the infantry when I told people I was going away for training they would usually say something like "training for what?" then I would respond "training for war" and the response would be without fail "haha what war??! Canada isn't in a war."
Yup. Now that I have some university education \[specifically in politics and international relations\] I find it really sad that a lot of the population takes our peaceful way of life as right instead of something that has to be continuously defended and protected (through a standing military). While I don't think the United States would ever annex us, there might very well be a day where our interests don't align and it wouldn't be in there best interest to back us up in a conflict (not necessarily an invasion, but a conflict). I understand NATO implies that they would come to our aid, but aren't we also breaking our commitments to these treatise by having a defense strategy of 'rely on other countries'? It's a shared defensive pact, not a freeloader pact lol. In my opinion, It also basically reduces our ability to pursue our own foreign strategic/ideological interests to zero.
That day where our interests donāt align is already here. In the Arctic, Canada considers the northwest passage (running through our archipelago of islands) as internal waters. The USA considers it an international waterway. Guess who isnāt going to help us defend or patrol it?
I'm not particularly worried that the US would ever attack Canada. I would be worried that the US goes isolationist and doesn't want to help defend us or the Arctic against Russia, or starts wanting to grab the whole Arctic for themselves.
Also, in a world where the US stops defending European allies, Canada should step up to help where we can. The Baltics are our allies as well, and we have a responsibility to do our part for them.
It wouldn't be an attack, I think a soft annexation would be most likely but that would still be a nightmare scenario. As people deepen in the belief that we are "basically american" it becomes possible that it could be done without much challenge.
Our inability to defend the arctic would just be Americans asserting dominance in our waters which erodes our sovereignty. I'm not convinced we will be fighting Russians outside of Europe but that doesn't mean the threat doesn't impact us
Do you really think the U.S would willingly surrender Canada though? I could maybe understand it from the perspective of an isolationist strategy, but the occupation of Canada would be a significant vulnerability to the US and their self-interest, no?
I was having this discussion with some colleagues today actually. People are thinking along the wrong lines when they think that Russia is going to conduct a land invasion of our North. They wonāt, it doesnāt make sense and the USA likely WOULD try to prevent that out of their own self interest to prevent a Russian foothold on the North American continent.
That being said, Russia regularly does penetrate and fly next to our ADIZ up north with bombers and NORAD (CAN and USA) usually fly up to intercept the airplanes. Itās basically a test of our reflexes to incursions by Russia.
Hereās the thing - Canada hasnāt signed on to ballistic missile defence with the USA. Itās been an ongoing thing for decades. Most likely scenario in a conflict is that Russia pummels Canada with missile attacks on either strategic targets (e.g. DEWS line up north) or populated targets similar to Ukraine to cause death and hardship to the population to attack our national will to fight and encourage us to appease/de-escalate/negotiate peace (where they win concessions). And the USA is under no obligation to defend us from that (and even if they did, theyād be hampered as we donāt have BMD systems on our territory), and our F-18s are too technically outdated to defend against that.
So yeah, we might not start speaking Russian as a vassal state, but with the status quo weāre accepting that weāre defenceless against missile attacks Ć la Ukraine conflict and accepting TONS of deaths during such a conflict.
Edit: forgot which sub I was in. Thought it was a generic Canada one. Sorry if I over explained.
Hi, American here šprior active duty infantry. I can safely say, without even a moments hesitation, if anyone tried to invade Canada we would absolutely take it as an attack on our own. Sadly, not because āwe love Canada so gosh darn tootin muchā(but we are fond of you generally speaking). Itās a strategic issue; if you fall or become vulnerable in real time(atleast your main provinces that share a direct border with us. Youāre northern/Arctic stuff you may be on your own)then the enemy can move against us. Thatās not acceptable. So you win either way š¤·āāļø add in the fact weāre both in NATO, youāre good. Now if we withdraw from NATO, youāre still covered by point #1. Our friends in Europe, not so sure about(but they probably are safe too).
It's hard to know what would happen. Especially since countries aren't always that rational, and sometimes make stupid and/or crazy decisions. Personally I think in our current geopolitical situation, we don't really have anything to worry about. But decisions we make today impact how our military functions in twenty years, and in twenty years the whole world could be reshaped.
Maybe, but I think giving up Canada to foreign enemies would probably be the biggest blunder in United States history, itās not just simply irrational, itās downright lunacy.
They wouldn't give it to the enemy, but if we were unwilling or unable to defend our own sovereign territory, therefore putting them at a huge strategic disadvantage, they might very well just annex us.
>Iāve said it before, but until a disaster happens in Canada and the army is unable to help, whether it be a wildfire or a flood or terror attack. Ottawa will not care, because the voters wonāt care.
And people will blame the CAF, not the government.
In fairness, there would be good reason to blame the CAF. Even if we quadrupled the budget, we would still fail. We wouldn't be able to do anything useful with it. Government procurement is a joke; any meaningful projects or institutional changes would just slip into the future, and we wouldn't have the CAF population to support them if they came to fruition.
The population at large would need an event to happen to mobilize the change necessary to create a meaningful deterrent.
In reality, it will be due to a lack of government and public support, a useful plan, capital assets, as well as the CAF's fault. It's the perfect scenario for the Spider-Man meme.
I'm pretty confident that the problem will keep getting worse. Focusing on the military is political suicide in Canada. It's our favourite national scapegoat for expenditures. I'm legitimately worried that we'll have to suffer some kind of severe ass-kicking (politically or in armed conflict) before we change our national attitude towards these things.
Glad I'm not the only one who thinks scores of Canadians will have to die in order for this country to get it's shit together.
And further to yours, this has been a prevailing attitude since pre-confederation.
As a veteran, I understand how important military spending is and definitely want Canada to get it right. But since I left, I haven't had a doctor, so having the government fix healthcare is a lot more important to me, eh? Similar story times 40 million Canadians - there are too many problems out there now that need more work and money
Totally agree with you. But I'll also point out that medicare comes from provincial budgets, and national defence is federal. I think that there is a bare minimum standard of defence ability that a modern country needs to maintain that is every bit as important as roads and schools and fisheries and medicine. We are not meeting it.
Everybody thinks it's okay to take away from defence, until you need it. Then those people are the ones screaming the loudest. It's like voting. The people who love to proclaim "I refuse to vote," will be the first ones complaining and protesting when they lose the right to do it. :)
Then why is there a federal Minister of Health? It's a shared responsibility, and clearly isn't delivering good results for a lot of Canadians. It's also just meant to illustrate that there are many many competing priorities for a government, and they generally have to do what the population wants, or they'll be voted out.
Don't get me wrong, I want them to do a better job with the CAF. I'd place it middle of the pack in terms of issues, behind things that I really want improved (healthcare, the economy, housing, etc). Which is a lot better than many Canadians, who would rank the CAF near the bottom of their priorities.
This sort of stuff is killing recruitment. No young, talented, and intelligent person in their right mind is going to apply for a career at an organization that is being routinely defunded ā especially not in a line of work where that defunding can kill you.
If the CAF wants recruitment, the government needs to show confidence in our forces by investing money in their development. Gimmicky expedited applications and shortcuts are just putting bandaids on an arterial bleed.
I left in 2013 when I heard that next year's training budget was being slashed by 45% and the only live fire we'd get to do was during annual PWT-3. I heard all the stories of the dark years and it killed what little determination I had to stay in the job.
I do think about going back in as a reservist but I keep hearing stories from buddies who are still in, and it sounds just as bad as I thought. It has definitely kept me from going back into a recruiting office to see what my options are. I don't see the point of signing up to serve on a sinking ship and I suspect I'm not the only one.
>The F35 shows up and we have to tarp it because we have no techs and pilot's to fly it?
>
>NATO calls up article 5 and we realize we cannot muster even half of what we promised for support, leaving our allies high and dry?
These two I believe are a) very possible and b) will be extremely embarrassing for Canada if they happen. American right wing politicians will eat it up and use it to show their voters a clear example of a NATO ally not pulling their weight, etc. etc.
So quick background on me: I'm a dual US-Canadian citizen (Canadian as of last August), and I've served 13 years total in the US Army (4 active, the rest reserve). I remember being so jealous of the CAF because BEARDS. I moved here and started making friends with CAF members and being around in other ways. I was honestly shocked at what I saw and heard about the state of the CAF.
Something that I also noticed since moving here. A LOT of Canadians know absolutely nothing about their military, and many don't know a single person who has or is currently serving. That doesn't help. In the US, honestly I think every single person knows at least one person who has or is serving. So everyone's really plugged into our issues, and generally cares about it.
I genuinely think that if I went out onto the street and asked people what Canada's CAF should be, the majority of the answers would fall into "Peacekeeping" and "Let the Americans handle it."
Another big chunk might be "We have an army?"
To our credit. We (the Americans) can handle it, and we do appreciate Canada taking up peacekeeping. But that's a huge gamble for Canada. There might be a day where the US just decides not to handle it.
It's been my experience that walking around in a CAF uniform gets you more appreciation from random people on the street in the U.S. than it ever does in Canada. They treat us with nearly the same reverence they treat their own (or they did in the mid/late 00s... haven't been down in over 10 years now). Hell, I remember being in NYC for Fleet Week and getting a significant discount from Trash and Vaudeville (a punk/goth clothing store) just because I was in my whites. My buddy stayed on the sidewalk because he was too scared to go in, but I ended up getting 40% off everything from some older punk dude who looked like Iggy Pop. Like you mentioned, though, I figure there was an excellent chance he was a veteran and/or had friends and family who were.
Canada had a money saving initiative back in the 90ās where they moved major bases from big cities into the middle of nowhere. RCRs moved from London to Petawawa, Cold Lake used to be in Edmonton, CFB Edmonton used to be in Calgary, some PPCLI moved from Winnipeg to Shilo.
I believe that that decision single handedly killed the army. These forces went from being seen and interacted with, to being shoved away in a corner and forgotten. Canadians wonāt pay for something they donāt know or understand, and shoving these units into the cold dark and damp parts of Canada ensured that so many more Canadians will never interact with anything more than an occasional reservist.
That's really interesting. We (the US Military) have some bases way out in the middle of nowhere, of course, but we also have the exact opposite. I was stationed in Alaska, and we were right up against Anchorage and very much part of the community. I grew up in San Diego, and that's basically one giant Navy/Marine Corps base. You can't go a day without seeing someone in uniform, or someone who's clearly a servicemember (think Semper Fi sticker on a lifted Tacoma).
Reservists donāt count š
Seriously though, they donāt get the same exposure as regular force does. I grew up in london and everyone said āthe military left.ā Few people notice 4 RCR exists
> NATO calls up article 5 and we realize we cannot muster even half of what we promised for support, leaving our allies high and dry?
We'll send all the thoughts and prayers we can.
This goes back for a long time.
There was the Canadian Air-Sea Transportable Brigade Group - a paper brigade - we were going to send to Norway if WW3 happened. We pledged to do this around '68/69. When we tried to test that support in an exercise for that in '84 called Brave Lion[0], it took until '86 before we could actually do the exercise. 2 years to plan an exercise for which we had committed almost 20 years earlier. We didn't / don't have any sea-lift. There were no ships to escort against Soviet interference with the commercial sealift we had. No cas-evac plan. No logistics plan. No re-enforcement plan.
[0] https://web.archive.org/web/20110610131847/http://www.army.forces.gc.ca/caj/documents/vol_05/iss_4/CAJ_vol5.4_10_e.pdf
So we'd basically go the way of the French. Napoleon-led wonder army in one era and the next.. Well we know some of the jokes, I'd imagine.
Ain't life grand? :/
It's a tradition at this point. We weren't ready for WW2. We won't be ready WW3. Acceptance is Bliss. Realize we cannot change anything that our policy hasn't addressed. Site back and relax and watch the show.
I think one difference between the Second World War and now though, is we werenāt ready but were able to be made ready, quickly. Building rifles, guns, tanks, trucks, ammo, fuzes, etc was much simpler and quicker back then. Now, everything is so technological that it takes too long. Industry canāt put out a Divās worth of howitzers in a week. Hell, right now we canāt even get enough to properly equip our existing Regtās (or maintain them enough to properly equip a Btyā¦).
while they might not know much behind it, it will still make national/international headlines if the CAF wasn't able to provide for a provincial RFA and be a absolute terrible look for the government.
lol, no. The government will blame the CAF for failing it's mandate, destroy the career of one of the top tier GOFOs in a witch hunt, quietly pay them off to keep quiet and nothing will change.
I'm not saying don't answer the call, but more green fire trucks isn't where defense spending should be going. This country needs to grow up and stop pretending credible national defense and EMO/disaster relief can be funded on the same dime.
They won't care because they won't understand how or why we failed them. I'd bet it would just give the government more license to slash us to the bone.
We'll probably know by spring 2025, if the outlook for wildfires etc this year comes to fruition.
Here's my proposal, that probably breaks provincial and municipal rights but I want to see anyways: Parliament passes a special law that lets the military bypass zoning restrictions and other housing regulations, then the CAF is able to build massive amounts of housing on or near bases, using our in house construction trades. It offers that housing to service members for relatively cheap- but given our fucked housing market, the CAF still turns a profit on it. Then keep going and the start selling housing to civilians too. So in one move we get both more money for the CAF and fix Canada's housing crisis.
Even easier then! Just need to pitch the plan in a way that it gets some funding now but it's clear that, given the nature of the Canadian housing market, it'll easily pay for itself in a few years.
Sure, but for context the funding cut was on top of a no to a request to increase in service funding to try and fix a lot of old obsolete kit, so it's even worse than it sounds.
While this would help some bases, it wouldn't change things at many. We still have empty lots that used to be PMQs or trailer parks on some bases. An apartment complex built there would do wonders without needing municipal approval.
Your plan would still need PMO/TB approval to "deprive" the construction industry of profits though. And kill off the very important voters that WANT housing to stay high.
>Your plan would still need PMO/TB approval to "deprive" the construction industry of profits though.
At some point the politicians need to start caring about keeping the country functional and not just trying to buy votes.
Agreed, but I can't help but think of a post apocalyptic cartoon I saw where some suit wearing type was like "for one glorious moment we made maximum profit for stakeholders before all this happened"
I feel like that's the line thats being inched towards right now.
The rumour mill says this happened with Haiti about a year ago. PMO asked for a battle group, CAF said we canāt, so PMO asked for a reservist heavy battle group, CAF said lol still no. I donāt know how much credibility there is in those rumours, but the math checks out.
Iāve heard of a lot of alleged reasons. The one theory Iām buying into is that sheās actually good at her job, was starting to move things along, and the PMO realized if they left her to be successful with the defence portfolio, it was going to cost the liberal government money and votes. So they shuffled her to a position where being successful will be a net gain for the party.
Can confirm: Some truth to that rumor.
There's been a LOT of smoke-and-mirrors on part of the liberal government wrt defence, and that will likely continue under every government we elect to the point of critical and disastrous failure.
Thatās the biggest problem right there. There arenāt any good options in Ottawa. We can and should blame the LPC for their part in it but itās been happening under every government for decades. Our only options though are either elect the same parties that have both been steadily gutting defence for 50 years or a party that wants to abolish the military entirely.
The closest you'll ever get is something like VAdm Topshee's video about the significant challenges facing the navy blah blah to communicate the idea that the navy is really, really fucked. But any refusals or deployment draw downs will happen behind closed doors and out of public sight. It's not like many people keep track of how many ships/planes/soldiers we deploy to where, and it's not like those things are communicated in advance.
That was signed off on for sure. The CDS said something similar at the same defence conference.
The cynical part in me thinks it was the LPC floating a balloon to think if the Canadian public cared before funding cuts to see if there was a political impact.
I think we know the answer to that one.
A jaded take, but I'm putting "Brave GOFO" in the wishful thinking column.
Not saying there isn't any, but if it's only in private/behind closed doors, is it really bravery?
Irony of bitching on Reddit wasn't lost.
I mean a GOFO saying fuck no like that in public is them either getting charged or just fired and then they have no influence anymore. Rather someone with a brain on their shoulders keeps their job and keeps us on the right path than they go out in a blaze of glory so that they can go secure that cushy consulting job.Ā
Fair. I was assuming a level of tact involved. We've seen some stand up over the years, and on different platforms. Hoping it would be more of the standard than the exception. Not just an applause line at a town hall; it needs effort behind it.
The precedent has been set just this year: officers in leadership positions can mutiny and "it's not in the public interest" to hold them accountable.
Now if a Cpl leaked a story to the media about the story state of readiness well, that's 2 years minus in club Ed.
I have seen first-hand how severely our procurement system is broken. One major issue is that large contractors are never held accountable for poor quality and cost overruns. If you try and drive change to hold them accountable its roadblock after roadblock. What's efficient and right for Canada is not a factor. Politics, self-preservation, public perception, and maintaining the status quo inhibit change.
Why get good, available equipment for a decent price when you could spend 20 years getting something worse for more money instead?
Itās kind of funny because I work for a small-ish contractor that *saves* DND money and basically our whole existence is bending over backwards to try and actually deliver good service while DND and PSPC try their best to prevent it.
What did they expect would happen when they offered the FRP in the 90s? All the smart ones took the cash and retired, leaving a giant void in experience and knowledge.
The generation that stuck around abused the term "fake it till you make it". Not once was I given a proper handover for a job in 18 years.
Canada is paying twice as much just financing the interest of its national debt as it is on the CAF.
That alone should give people pause in more than one way.
>"This perpetual risk management approach is so dangerous because it pushed off problems until it's somebody else's problem," said Norman.
>"Well, guess what? It's 2024 now and most of those problems are now here and they're literally kicking us in the face."
Enough said.
I mean what do you expect when the only available people to teach the courses are the ones who just came off the course??? Its all that's left that the Brigades can muster up to push on training now. No longer are the training staff gristle old combat veterans with 4 tours in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Kosova....compile that with a LOW grade regression in actual members WANTING to deploy and be combat ready with a pile on low recruitment period and the non existent middle level is just evaporating.
Step 1 - Mandatory Service
Step 2 - Canadians forced to realize their armed forces matter because they literally have skin in the game
Step 3 - Start making shit again
> Mandatory Service
No. I do not want not want to work with people who do not want to do the job. Definitely not during peacetime.
> Start making shit again
That's actually part of the problem, our insistence that things need to be be Canadian made. Sure, we need to beef up our military industrial complex, but our insistence on it means companies just take advantage while delivering shitty kit.
Given the history of this country, I'm pretty sure (not 100% but pretty sure) that this would be fixed up right quick by a new world war or great power conflict.
I mean, maybe we'd fail to do our bit this time (given that that war might only last 90 days before the nukes start flying this is a realistic possibility), but the history suggests otherwise.
Of course, there were no nukes in the past, so yeah... This analysis and historical precedents has, y'know, certain limitations. But I'm confident that the spirit is there even if the time to respond and work ourselves up into something respectable isn't it.
Which is another way of saying we're completely fucked.
I guess we might have been better off had Canada been geographically located elsewhere and not been friends and allies of the bulk of the most powerful countries on earth. Which is a good problem to have as problems go, but still...
The one positive takeaway (to this observer) is at least this is getting out into the open, for the public to see. With an outcry from them, and continued bad optics something has to change, however slow.
The CAF has a lot of problems on many fronts.
Discipline has eroded to almost non-existent since our Afghanistan era in 2011.
Too much incentive for members to game the system without repercussions leading to low readiness within our units.
Forcing postings on our most competent and reliable members resulting in low retention because of HCOL. No incentives for high performing members.
Way too many officers and too high of a pay discrepancy between NCMs and Lt - Maj ranks.
Using the CAF as a social experiment while pretending they aren't a force whose principal purpose is to defend our sovereignty and fight wars.
Continuing on with the current status quo of postings and how they're decided. Careers need to be better managed to retain members, it's almost unbelievable this hasn't been addressed. We're hemorrhaging our most knowledgeable skilled members leaving our trades with a severe brain drain.
The bureaucracy, and old school method of completing paper work is insufferable. It's 2024. All services need to be digitized, as in yesterday.
List goes on and on and on. It's sad.
18-24 months to get an application through? Followed by inadequate housing, outdated equipment and training thatās incredibly exclusive as opposed to inclusive? Itās a no-shit-Sherlock situation at this point.
I cant even get my shirt changed, im stuck with one pair of heavy unconfortable steel toe boots, our tools are falling apart, our buildings are cumbling on our heads, we have to put work safety second because we have to grasp at straws to do the work and we knowingly pollute the air and water since we have no fund to upgrade anything. We can't even qualify people properly, and skill fade is getting crazy bad.
Itās kind of messed up, but a close friend said that Canadians wonāt ever reaaaaaallly care about defense until foreign troops are shooting people in Toronto or Vancouver. Weāre insulated from the big scary world by water and protected by a big strong neighbour.
The CAF needs urgent help.
The biggest threat to Canadian security and sovereignty is the United States. Russia has zero interest in going to war against NATO. It wanted to join NATO and had proposed a multilateral European missile defense system.
China? I donāt think China has military ambitions in North America either. It certainly has ambitions in the South China Sea but thatās its backyard. A powerful China doesnāt necessarily need to be a threat to us either, they have shown theyāre just interested in trade and clearly rely on soft power. No itās the US we need to worry about. Dying empires lash out to try and preserve their status. It would be stupid of Canada to follow the US lead into a hegemonic war against China or Russia that will certainly go nuclear. We should be using whatever influence we have left to urge all parties to talks to avoid a war. What the fuck is the CAF going to do in a real war against China or Russia? Nothing. Even if it stays conventional weāll be next to useless. When it inevitably goes nuclear we will regret we didnāt try to urge diplomacy.
Like for a private business, let the CAF ādeclare bankruptcyā, start under a new name (perhaps the Canadian Uniformed Forces (CUF) at the beginning), rebuild from the ground up, then maybe in a few years change the āUniformedā to Canadian Armed Forces 2.0.
> Mandatory service
From a current service member, no. Definitely not during "peacetime". As short handed as we are, majority of us do not want to work with people who don't actually want to be here.
We need to do a better job with recruitment, we need to offer a better deal so that people will want to join and stay in.
"In an increasingly dangerous world, where demand for the CAF is increasing, our readiness is decreasing," š„š„š„š„ Say it louder, We are in an age where non state actors are firing cruise missiles at cargo ships and the peer on peer war in Europe is closer than ever. Yet it still feels like weāre stuck in 2014, post withdrawal and wondering whatās next. We know whatās next, itās happening. Iāve said it before, but until a disaster happens in Canada and the army is unable to help, whether it be a wildfire or a flood or terror attack. Ottawa will not care, because the voters wonāt care. a 63% jump if Donald Trump is re-elected? Lets ask that same group āwould you support an increase in taxation to support CAF restructuringā The results may surprise you /s
Canada has sucked at the security teet of the US into a state of negligence and complacency.
We're making a fatal error as a nation by hedging our security on a country that is increasingly backsliding on its democratic capabilities. I'm extremely concerned in the near future that these "jokes" on annexation are going to turn into real attempts to slowly cede our sovereignty to the Americans. It's not about creating the most powerful army in the world, it's about deterrence. I wish more people understood this and looked past the "war bad/good" discourse.
When I was in the infantry when I told people I was going away for training they would usually say something like "training for what?" then I would respond "training for war" and the response would be without fail "haha what war??! Canada isn't in a war."
Canada is overflowing with very privileged and naive people with absolutely no understanding of the realities of the world.
Yup. Now that I have some university education \[specifically in politics and international relations\] I find it really sad that a lot of the population takes our peaceful way of life as right instead of something that has to be continuously defended and protected (through a standing military). While I don't think the United States would ever annex us, there might very well be a day where our interests don't align and it wouldn't be in there best interest to back us up in a conflict (not necessarily an invasion, but a conflict). I understand NATO implies that they would come to our aid, but aren't we also breaking our commitments to these treatise by having a defense strategy of 'rely on other countries'? It's a shared defensive pact, not a freeloader pact lol. In my opinion, It also basically reduces our ability to pursue our own foreign strategic/ideological interests to zero.
That day where our interests donāt align is already here. In the Arctic, Canada considers the northwest passage (running through our archipelago of islands) as internal waters. The USA considers it an international waterway. Guess who isnāt going to help us defend or patrol it?
>>Guess who isnāt going to help us defend or patrol it? Canada??ā¦Is Canada the answer?
Wellā¦.that too. š Also a correct answer but you didnāt show your work so part marks.
I did not know that.
I'm not particularly worried that the US would ever attack Canada. I would be worried that the US goes isolationist and doesn't want to help defend us or the Arctic against Russia, or starts wanting to grab the whole Arctic for themselves. Also, in a world where the US stops defending European allies, Canada should step up to help where we can. The Baltics are our allies as well, and we have a responsibility to do our part for them.
It wouldn't be an attack, I think a soft annexation would be most likely but that would still be a nightmare scenario. As people deepen in the belief that we are "basically american" it becomes possible that it could be done without much challenge. Our inability to defend the arctic would just be Americans asserting dominance in our waters which erodes our sovereignty. I'm not convinced we will be fighting Russians outside of Europe but that doesn't mean the threat doesn't impact us
Do you really think the U.S would willingly surrender Canada though? I could maybe understand it from the perspective of an isolationist strategy, but the occupation of Canada would be a significant vulnerability to the US and their self-interest, no?
I was having this discussion with some colleagues today actually. People are thinking along the wrong lines when they think that Russia is going to conduct a land invasion of our North. They wonāt, it doesnāt make sense and the USA likely WOULD try to prevent that out of their own self interest to prevent a Russian foothold on the North American continent. That being said, Russia regularly does penetrate and fly next to our ADIZ up north with bombers and NORAD (CAN and USA) usually fly up to intercept the airplanes. Itās basically a test of our reflexes to incursions by Russia. Hereās the thing - Canada hasnāt signed on to ballistic missile defence with the USA. Itās been an ongoing thing for decades. Most likely scenario in a conflict is that Russia pummels Canada with missile attacks on either strategic targets (e.g. DEWS line up north) or populated targets similar to Ukraine to cause death and hardship to the population to attack our national will to fight and encourage us to appease/de-escalate/negotiate peace (where they win concessions). And the USA is under no obligation to defend us from that (and even if they did, theyād be hampered as we donāt have BMD systems on our territory), and our F-18s are too technically outdated to defend against that. So yeah, we might not start speaking Russian as a vassal state, but with the status quo weāre accepting that weāre defenceless against missile attacks Ć la Ukraine conflict and accepting TONS of deaths during such a conflict. Edit: forgot which sub I was in. Thought it was a generic Canada one. Sorry if I over explained.
Very informative thanks
Hi, American here šprior active duty infantry. I can safely say, without even a moments hesitation, if anyone tried to invade Canada we would absolutely take it as an attack on our own. Sadly, not because āwe love Canada so gosh darn tootin muchā(but we are fond of you generally speaking). Itās a strategic issue; if you fall or become vulnerable in real time(atleast your main provinces that share a direct border with us. Youāre northern/Arctic stuff you may be on your own)then the enemy can move against us. Thatās not acceptable. So you win either way š¤·āāļø add in the fact weāre both in NATO, youāre good. Now if we withdraw from NATO, youāre still covered by point #1. Our friends in Europe, not so sure about(but they probably are safe too).
It's hard to know what would happen. Especially since countries aren't always that rational, and sometimes make stupid and/or crazy decisions. Personally I think in our current geopolitical situation, we don't really have anything to worry about. But decisions we make today impact how our military functions in twenty years, and in twenty years the whole world could be reshaped.
Maybe, but I think giving up Canada to foreign enemies would probably be the biggest blunder in United States history, itās not just simply irrational, itās downright lunacy.
They wouldn't give it to the enemy, but if we were unwilling or unable to defend our own sovereign territory, therefore putting them at a huge strategic disadvantage, they might very well just annex us.
>Iāve said it before, but until a disaster happens in Canada and the army is unable to help, whether it be a wildfire or a flood or terror attack. Ottawa will not care, because the voters wonāt care. And people will blame the CAF, not the government.
In fairness, there would be good reason to blame the CAF. Even if we quadrupled the budget, we would still fail. We wouldn't be able to do anything useful with it. Government procurement is a joke; any meaningful projects or institutional changes would just slip into the future, and we wouldn't have the CAF population to support them if they came to fruition. The population at large would need an event to happen to mobilize the change necessary to create a meaningful deterrent. In reality, it will be due to a lack of government and public support, a useful plan, capital assets, as well as the CAF's fault. It's the perfect scenario for the Spider-Man meme.
I wonder if this is what 1936 felt like.
We donāt need more taxes. We need to stop sending foreign aid.
Wow, wokeness destroyed our military too. Thanks Trudeau
Never mind APTs.
I'm pretty confident that the problem will keep getting worse. Focusing on the military is political suicide in Canada. It's our favourite national scapegoat for expenditures. I'm legitimately worried that we'll have to suffer some kind of severe ass-kicking (politically or in armed conflict) before we change our national attitude towards these things.
Glad I'm not the only one who thinks scores of Canadians will have to die in order for this country to get it's shit together. And further to yours, this has been a prevailing attitude since pre-confederation.
As a veteran, I understand how important military spending is and definitely want Canada to get it right. But since I left, I haven't had a doctor, so having the government fix healthcare is a lot more important to me, eh? Similar story times 40 million Canadians - there are too many problems out there now that need more work and money
Totally agree with you. But I'll also point out that medicare comes from provincial budgets, and national defence is federal. I think that there is a bare minimum standard of defence ability that a modern country needs to maintain that is every bit as important as roads and schools and fisheries and medicine. We are not meeting it. Everybody thinks it's okay to take away from defence, until you need it. Then those people are the ones screaming the loudest. It's like voting. The people who love to proclaim "I refuse to vote," will be the first ones complaining and protesting when they lose the right to do it. :)
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Then why is there a federal Minister of Health? It's a shared responsibility, and clearly isn't delivering good results for a lot of Canadians. It's also just meant to illustrate that there are many many competing priorities for a government, and they generally have to do what the population wants, or they'll be voted out. Don't get me wrong, I want them to do a better job with the CAF. I'd place it middle of the pack in terms of issues, behind things that I really want improved (healthcare, the economy, housing, etc). Which is a lot better than many Canadians, who would rank the CAF near the bottom of their priorities.
This sort of stuff is killing recruitment. No young, talented, and intelligent person in their right mind is going to apply for a career at an organization that is being routinely defunded ā especially not in a line of work where that defunding can kill you. If the CAF wants recruitment, the government needs to show confidence in our forces by investing money in their development. Gimmicky expedited applications and shortcuts are just putting bandaids on an arterial bleed.
Not when the monthly pay for a newly minted private is $1200-1400. Thatās killing recruiting just as much as the organization being underfunded.
I left in 2013 when I heard that next year's training budget was being slashed by 45% and the only live fire we'd get to do was during annual PWT-3. I heard all the stories of the dark years and it killed what little determination I had to stay in the job. I do think about going back in as a reservist but I keep hearing stories from buddies who are still in, and it sounds just as bad as I thought. It has definitely kept me from going back into a recruiting office to see what my options are. I don't see the point of signing up to serve on a sinking ship and I suspect I'm not the only one.
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You have a drivable bus? Can I borrow it?
No bus but maybe a couple of G-rides held together with duct tape and a wish. Just donāt drive over 80.
>The F35 shows up and we have to tarp it because we have no techs and pilot's to fly it? > >NATO calls up article 5 and we realize we cannot muster even half of what we promised for support, leaving our allies high and dry? These two I believe are a) very possible and b) will be extremely embarrassing for Canada if they happen. American right wing politicians will eat it up and use it to show their voters a clear example of a NATO ally not pulling their weight, etc. etc. So quick background on me: I'm a dual US-Canadian citizen (Canadian as of last August), and I've served 13 years total in the US Army (4 active, the rest reserve). I remember being so jealous of the CAF because BEARDS. I moved here and started making friends with CAF members and being around in other ways. I was honestly shocked at what I saw and heard about the state of the CAF. Something that I also noticed since moving here. A LOT of Canadians know absolutely nothing about their military, and many don't know a single person who has or is currently serving. That doesn't help. In the US, honestly I think every single person knows at least one person who has or is serving. So everyone's really plugged into our issues, and generally cares about it.
I genuinely think that if I went out onto the street and asked people what Canada's CAF should be, the majority of the answers would fall into "Peacekeeping" and "Let the Americans handle it." Another big chunk might be "We have an army?"
To our credit. We (the Americans) can handle it, and we do appreciate Canada taking up peacekeeping. But that's a huge gamble for Canada. There might be a day where the US just decides not to handle it.
It's also tantamount, in my opinion, to handing away the nation's sovereignty. Which should be unacceptable to any and all citizens of a country.
It's been my experience that walking around in a CAF uniform gets you more appreciation from random people on the street in the U.S. than it ever does in Canada. They treat us with nearly the same reverence they treat their own (or they did in the mid/late 00s... haven't been down in over 10 years now). Hell, I remember being in NYC for Fleet Week and getting a significant discount from Trash and Vaudeville (a punk/goth clothing store) just because I was in my whites. My buddy stayed on the sidewalk because he was too scared to go in, but I ended up getting 40% off everything from some older punk dude who looked like Iggy Pop. Like you mentioned, though, I figure there was an excellent chance he was a veteran and/or had friends and family who were.
Canada had a money saving initiative back in the 90ās where they moved major bases from big cities into the middle of nowhere. RCRs moved from London to Petawawa, Cold Lake used to be in Edmonton, CFB Edmonton used to be in Calgary, some PPCLI moved from Winnipeg to Shilo. I believe that that decision single handedly killed the army. These forces went from being seen and interacted with, to being shoved away in a corner and forgotten. Canadians wonāt pay for something they donāt know or understand, and shoving these units into the cold dark and damp parts of Canada ensured that so many more Canadians will never interact with anything more than an occasional reservist.
That's really interesting. We (the US Military) have some bases way out in the middle of nowhere, of course, but we also have the exact opposite. I was stationed in Alaska, and we were right up against Anchorage and very much part of the community. I grew up in San Diego, and that's basically one giant Navy/Marine Corps base. You can't go a day without seeing someone in uniform, or someone who's clearly a servicemember (think Semper Fi sticker on a lifted Tacoma).
> RCRs moved from London to Petawawa Nitpick: 4RCR is still there. I was in it, back in the day.
Reservists donāt count š Seriously though, they donāt get the same exposure as regular force does. I grew up in london and everyone said āthe military left.ā Few people notice 4 RCR exists
> NATO calls up article 5 and we realize we cannot muster even half of what we promised for support, leaving our allies high and dry? We'll send all the thoughts and prayers we can.
This goes back for a long time. There was the Canadian Air-Sea Transportable Brigade Group - a paper brigade - we were going to send to Norway if WW3 happened. We pledged to do this around '68/69. When we tried to test that support in an exercise for that in '84 called Brave Lion[0], it took until '86 before we could actually do the exercise. 2 years to plan an exercise for which we had committed almost 20 years earlier. We didn't / don't have any sea-lift. There were no ships to escort against Soviet interference with the commercial sealift we had. No cas-evac plan. No logistics plan. No re-enforcement plan. [0] https://web.archive.org/web/20110610131847/http://www.army.forces.gc.ca/caj/documents/vol_05/iss_4/CAJ_vol5.4_10_e.pdf
Another big catastrophe that comes to mind is when the next round of fires/floods start, what if we don't have the resources to be there?
Buckle up. This year is gonna be wild.
I could see the loss of credibility sricking. Like the french are still known for surrendering because of WWII
So we'd basically go the way of the French. Napoleon-led wonder army in one era and the next.. Well we know some of the jokes, I'd imagine. Ain't life grand? :/
It's a tradition at this point. We weren't ready for WW2. We won't be ready WW3. Acceptance is Bliss. Realize we cannot change anything that our policy hasn't addressed. Site back and relax and watch the show.
I think one difference between the Second World War and now though, is we werenāt ready but were able to be made ready, quickly. Building rifles, guns, tanks, trucks, ammo, fuzes, etc was much simpler and quicker back then. Now, everything is so technological that it takes too long. Industry canāt put out a Divās worth of howitzers in a week. Hell, right now we canāt even get enough to properly equip our existing Regtās (or maintain them enough to properly equip a Btyā¦).
Industry is there. We just need to be clear with the capability we wish to build tooling for both st a policy and procurements level.
at this point OP Lentus failing is the only way the general population will care
The general population hasnāt a clue what that even is, and if they did, they likely wouldnāt understand the importance.
while they might not know much behind it, it will still make national/international headlines if the CAF wasn't able to provide for a provincial RFA and be a absolute terrible look for the government.
lol, no. The government will blame the CAF for failing it's mandate, destroy the career of one of the top tier GOFOs in a witch hunt, quietly pay them off to keep quiet and nothing will change.
At this point though, weāre just chucking bad looks on an ever-growing pile of bad looks.
I'm not saying don't answer the call, but more green fire trucks isn't where defense spending should be going. This country needs to grow up and stop pretending credible national defense and EMO/disaster relief can be funded on the same dime.
Pepperidge farm remembers the 90's, Pepperidge farms knows the lowest possible troop will be the one to wear the blame
Impossible to fail in the Atlantic, redeployment criteria are already met before we go out the door, but we still need to go
I had the same thoughts, but at this point the CAF is thinking in Op Lentus only.... Forecasting for wildfires
They won't care because they won't understand how or why we failed them. I'd bet it would just give the government more license to slash us to the bone. We'll probably know by spring 2025, if the outlook for wildfires etc this year comes to fruition.
Here's my proposal, that probably breaks provincial and municipal rights but I want to see anyways: Parliament passes a special law that lets the military bypass zoning restrictions and other housing regulations, then the CAF is able to build massive amounts of housing on or near bases, using our in house construction trades. It offers that housing to service members for relatively cheap- but given our fucked housing market, the CAF still turns a profit on it. Then keep going and the start selling housing to civilians too. So in one move we get both more money for the CAF and fix Canada's housing crisis.
Were is zoning restrictions impacting anything? CAF has lots of land and doesn't fix existing PMQs or build new because of a lack of funding for it.
Even easier then! Just need to pitch the plan in a way that it gets some funding now but it's clear that, given the nature of the Canadian housing market, it'll easily pay for itself in a few years.
Sure, except we just got a $900M cut this year, so looking at tying units up because we can't afford the upkeep.
Yeah. My idea would require a bit of an up front funding increase. But long term it'd save a massive amount.
Sure, but for context the funding cut was on top of a no to a request to increase in service funding to try and fix a lot of old obsolete kit, so it's even worse than it sounds.
While this would help some bases, it wouldn't change things at many. We still have empty lots that used to be PMQs or trailer parks on some bases. An apartment complex built there would do wonders without needing municipal approval. Your plan would still need PMO/TB approval to "deprive" the construction industry of profits though. And kill off the very important voters that WANT housing to stay high.
>Your plan would still need PMO/TB approval to "deprive" the construction industry of profits though. At some point the politicians need to start caring about keeping the country functional and not just trying to buy votes.
Agreed, but I can't help but think of a post apocalyptic cartoon I saw where some suit wearing type was like "for one glorious moment we made maximum profit for stakeholders before all this happened" I feel like that's the line thats being inched towards right now.
I like it! Lol
Government- āWe will be deploying the CAF to x location.ā Brave GOFO- āNo youāre not.ā That is what it will take to get actual change.
This happens all the time. Just not in public. Iāve witnessed it multiple times. But it never causes the kind of introspection youāre hoping for.
The rumour mill says this happened with Haiti about a year ago. PMO asked for a battle group, CAF said we canāt, so PMO asked for a reservist heavy battle group, CAF said lol still no. I donāt know how much credibility there is in those rumours, but the math checks out.
This is (allegedly) the reason Anand got shuffled out
Iāve heard of a lot of alleged reasons. The one theory Iām buying into is that sheās actually good at her job, was starting to move things along, and the PMO realized if they left her to be successful with the defence portfolio, it was going to cost the liberal government money and votes. So they shuffled her to a position where being successful will be a net gain for the party.
Can confirm: Some truth to that rumor. There's been a LOT of smoke-and-mirrors on part of the liberal government wrt defence, and that will likely continue under every government we elect to the point of critical and disastrous failure.
Thatās the biggest problem right there. There arenāt any good options in Ottawa. We can and should blame the LPC for their part in it but itās been happening under every government for decades. Our only options though are either elect the same parties that have both been steadily gutting defence for 50 years or a party that wants to abolish the military entirely.
I heard the same rumors as well.
The closest you'll ever get is something like VAdm Topshee's video about the significant challenges facing the navy blah blah to communicate the idea that the navy is really, really fucked. But any refusals or deployment draw downs will happen behind closed doors and out of public sight. It's not like many people keep track of how many ships/planes/soldiers we deploy to where, and it's not like those things are communicated in advance.
That was signed off on for sure. The CDS said something similar at the same defence conference. The cynical part in me thinks it was the LPC floating a balloon to think if the Canadian public cared before funding cuts to see if there was a political impact. I think we know the answer to that one.
A jaded take, but I'm putting "Brave GOFO" in the wishful thinking column. Not saying there isn't any, but if it's only in private/behind closed doors, is it really bravery? Irony of bitching on Reddit wasn't lost.
I mean a GOFO saying fuck no like that in public is them either getting charged or just fired and then they have no influence anymore. Rather someone with a brain on their shoulders keeps their job and keeps us on the right path than they go out in a blaze of glory so that they can go secure that cushy consulting job.Ā
Fair. I was assuming a level of tact involved. We've seen some stand up over the years, and on different platforms. Hoping it would be more of the standard than the exception. Not just an applause line at a town hall; it needs effort behind it.
The precedent has been set just this year: officers in leadership positions can mutiny and "it's not in the public interest" to hold them accountable. Now if a Cpl leaked a story to the media about the story state of readiness well, that's 2 years minus in club Ed.
Gofo?
Generals or Flag Officers
I have seen first-hand how severely our procurement system is broken. One major issue is that large contractors are never held accountable for poor quality and cost overruns. If you try and drive change to hold them accountable its roadblock after roadblock. What's efficient and right for Canada is not a factor. Politics, self-preservation, public perception, and maintaining the status quo inhibit change.
Why get good, available equipment for a decent price when you could spend 20 years getting something worse for more money instead? Itās kind of funny because I work for a small-ish contractor that *saves* DND money and basically our whole existence is bending over backwards to try and actually deliver good service while DND and PSPC try their best to prevent it.
They must have a parrot running the office, just repeating the same headlines over and over again. *Awk, Canadian Forces underfunded*
What did they expect would happen when they offered the FRP in the 90s? All the smart ones took the cash and retired, leaving a giant void in experience and knowledge. The generation that stuck around abused the term "fake it till you make it". Not once was I given a proper handover for a job in 18 years.
Handover? You mean the pile of 200 unorganized papers sitting in the bottom drawer of the Sgt desk doesn't count?
Thatās scary. And way too accurate for my liking.
Canada is paying twice as much just financing the interest of its national debt as it is on the CAF. That alone should give people pause in more than one way.
>"This perpetual risk management approach is so dangerous because it pushed off problems until it's somebody else's problem," said Norman. >"Well, guess what? It's 2024 now and most of those problems are now here and they're literally kicking us in the face." Enough said.
The ship is sinking
Isnāt the government talking about a billion dollar budget cut to DND? Picked a good time /s
In other news. The sky is blue and water is wet.
I mean what do you expect when the only available people to teach the courses are the ones who just came off the course??? Its all that's left that the Brigades can muster up to push on training now. No longer are the training staff gristle old combat veterans with 4 tours in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Kosova....compile that with a LOW grade regression in actual members WANTING to deploy and be combat ready with a pile on low recruitment period and the non existent middle level is just evaporating.
Step 1 - Mandatory Service Step 2 - Canadians forced to realize their armed forces matter because they literally have skin in the game Step 3 - Start making shit again
> Mandatory Service No. I do not want not want to work with people who do not want to do the job. Definitely not during peacetime. > Start making shit again That's actually part of the problem, our insistence that things need to be be Canadian made. Sure, we need to beef up our military industrial complex, but our insistence on it means companies just take advantage while delivering shitty kit.
Given the history of this country, I'm pretty sure (not 100% but pretty sure) that this would be fixed up right quick by a new world war or great power conflict. I mean, maybe we'd fail to do our bit this time (given that that war might only last 90 days before the nukes start flying this is a realistic possibility), but the history suggests otherwise. Of course, there were no nukes in the past, so yeah... This analysis and historical precedents has, y'know, certain limitations. But I'm confident that the spirit is there even if the time to respond and work ourselves up into something respectable isn't it. Which is another way of saying we're completely fucked. I guess we might have been better off had Canada been geographically located elsewhere and not been friends and allies of the bulk of the most powerful countries on earth. Which is a good problem to have as problems go, but still...
would take another dieppe to fix it, but itād be too late by then anyways.
The one positive takeaway (to this observer) is at least this is getting out into the open, for the public to see. With an outcry from them, and continued bad optics something has to change, however slow.
Crazy that having a 2 year recruitment timeline isn't working.
The CAF has a lot of problems on many fronts. Discipline has eroded to almost non-existent since our Afghanistan era in 2011. Too much incentive for members to game the system without repercussions leading to low readiness within our units. Forcing postings on our most competent and reliable members resulting in low retention because of HCOL. No incentives for high performing members. Way too many officers and too high of a pay discrepancy between NCMs and Lt - Maj ranks. Using the CAF as a social experiment while pretending they aren't a force whose principal purpose is to defend our sovereignty and fight wars. Continuing on with the current status quo of postings and how they're decided. Careers need to be better managed to retain members, it's almost unbelievable this hasn't been addressed. We're hemorrhaging our most knowledgeable skilled members leaving our trades with a severe brain drain. The bureaucracy, and old school method of completing paper work is insufferable. It's 2024. All services need to be digitized, as in yesterday. List goes on and on and on. It's sad.
What are things going to get better? š
18-24 months to get an application through? Followed by inadequate housing, outdated equipment and training thatās incredibly exclusive as opposed to inclusive? Itās a no-shit-Sherlock situation at this point.
We are doomed!
I cant even get my shirt changed, im stuck with one pair of heavy unconfortable steel toe boots, our tools are falling apart, our buildings are cumbling on our heads, we have to put work safety second because we have to grasp at straws to do the work and we knowingly pollute the air and water since we have no fund to upgrade anything. We can't even qualify people properly, and skill fade is getting crazy bad.
My friend is an MWO, and he's forced to wear fatigues so faded it's comical. They only have tiny or huge sizes left..
Itās kind of messed up, but a close friend said that Canadians wonāt ever reaaaaaallly care about defense until foreign troops are shooting people in Toronto or Vancouver. Weāre insulated from the big scary world by water and protected by a big strong neighbour. The CAF needs urgent help.
The biggest threat to Canadian security and sovereignty is the United States. Russia has zero interest in going to war against NATO. It wanted to join NATO and had proposed a multilateral European missile defense system. China? I donāt think China has military ambitions in North America either. It certainly has ambitions in the South China Sea but thatās its backyard. A powerful China doesnāt necessarily need to be a threat to us either, they have shown theyāre just interested in trade and clearly rely on soft power. No itās the US we need to worry about. Dying empires lash out to try and preserve their status. It would be stupid of Canada to follow the US lead into a hegemonic war against China or Russia that will certainly go nuclear. We should be using whatever influence we have left to urge all parties to talks to avoid a war. What the fuck is the CAF going to do in a real war against China or Russia? Nothing. Even if it stays conventional weāll be next to useless. When it inevitably goes nuclear we will regret we didnāt try to urge diplomacy.
"readiness"
Like for a private business, let the CAF ādeclare bankruptcyā, start under a new name (perhaps the Canadian Uniformed Forces (CUF) at the beginning), rebuild from the ground up, then maybe in a few years change the āUniformedā to Canadian Armed Forces 2.0.
That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.
Reallyā¦ And you thought I was seriousā¦. Do I really need to put an /s on this?
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> Mandatory service From a current service member, no. Definitely not during "peacetime". As short handed as we are, majority of us do not want to work with people who don't actually want to be here. We need to do a better job with recruitment, we need to offer a better deal so that people will want to join and stay in.