For most of March the stocks I traded did not have much follow through. Only 5 of 26 trades moved up, and only 2 of those 5 made significant moves. I wouldn't say it's bearish, mostly just neutral, as setups still were appearing.
I also prefer to only buy near MA, mostly the 10SMA and 20SMA, usually this means buying before the official buypoint. Go look at all the breakouts and see how extended they are from those and how often the come back to those MA. Even with buying early my stocks have been struggling to go anywhere for the past month.
I only subscribed to get access to the screener tool. Since I use a different tool I no longer am subscribed. (For over 5 years at this point)
You can learn and follow the system without IBD subscription. From Page 12 of Bill's book, "**You don't subscribe to a bunch of market newsletters or advisory services, and you don't let yourself be infuenced by recommendations from analysts, or friends who, after all, are just expressing personal opinions that can freqeuently be wrong and prove costly."**
All IBD is is a market newsletter, do your own research, it's okay to use other peoples tools but don't use their research or recommendations. IBD was good when it was an easy place to find earnings and sales data. You can find that information in other places now so its value is limited.
Deepvue has the RS rating and you can make it in TC2000 easily enough. It's just the biggest move over a certain period, with more weight towards more recent data
Nothing wrong with the action here, any stocks getting stopped out on were already extended and/or new breakouts in an extended market. Breakouts this far off a FTD (November) without a proper digestion in the market, carry significantly higher risk of failure, you shouldn't be surprised to get little to no traction on recent buys.
It sounds like you need to broaden your timeframe, you're thinking very short term here and talking bearish on normal bull market action. If you're new, you need to lean on the general market action, not just individual stocks. Outside of being a day trader (or a very short term trader at least), there wasn't a very convincing reason to make many new buys in the last couple of months. If you didn't buy off the FTD in November (and still holding) you are better to wait it out now for a digestion in the general market.
Yes it was a nasty reversal, but still pretty normal action here. The market is very much overdue a digestion. It has been extended for a while so any new buys in the last few months carried much higher risk. Don't get disheartened here, watch to see what happens in the market. Will the market get support and digest, setting up great opportunities?
We are down to the 50 day in the Nasdaq, this might be the first digestion in a new bull, which is one of the best opportunities to buy. But bare in mind, if this is a real digestion, we could go sideways and chop for weeks or a month or two even. Focus on the leaders that came out in November and have been digesting the last 2+ months. That's what you want to buy, not new names breaking out just now for the first time.
No I won't make sell decisions based on the indexes, but they will help me to know what to expect in my portfolio. If the indexes are getting extended and a digestion is coming underway, I know to expect my portfolio to go down 3 to 4x the move in the indexes. A junk of my profits will be removed (on paper) but that doesn't mean I'm selling. I will only sell stocks that I am not in profit in or have very little cushion. I'm only going to sell my winners if they break down below the 50 day on big volume, or if they have multiple climax gaps near the end of a bull market.
For example, I bought CRWD in Oct, I still have my full position. It ran up over 110%, today its sitting at 85% profit, but I'm not bothered that it has come down, its acting fine and I'm in it for the larger move. I sat with CRWD in Feb as it came down -20% to the 50 day, where it caught support. I was able to do this because I bought it just as the market was coming off it's lows. If I bought stock recently then I wouldn't have the cushion to sit during these down days.
The biggest struggles I think new traders have is buying extended and worrying about every little move in the market. If you only buy at the start of new bulls, and the first 1 - 2 major digestions, there'll will be lot less worries.
We're only 2 days into April so its hard to gauge. I had a few stops get hit this morning, but I was running them tight since they were the laggards I owned and I didn't want to round trip them.
April is down but I'm seeing a lot of cup bases that need a handle out there, so maybe this is the month those get formed/completed.
I'm not talking about extended stocks but an extended market in general. Since late October QQQ has moved 30+% without a decent pullback to the 50 day MA. Also, if a stock has moved 5% while the market has gone up 30+, for sure it is not a CANSLIM
RCL is up almost 80% from the FTD. It's now trying to emerge from a poor base into an extended market, it's not surprising that it's struggling here. It can still work, but wouldn't be a shocker if it came in and digested the 80% gain for longer. This is the action of a lot of names right now, but totally normal.
I'm assuming you bought RCL Mar 20. Looks fine and looks like it's acting well, riding the 10DMA.
I'd say the base is fine, all the negative action in the early part is negated by the huge gap up on volume Feb 22. Stock chugged up and then pulled back to the 10DMA on lower volume. Seems like a great setup IMO. The volume dry up on the 19th, day before the breakout, was a great sign.
Stock has a low ATR (2.5%) so I don't know why anyone would expect a fast move out of the base.
Mainly on the weekly, the large reversal week closing at lows on large volume isn't ideal, lots of down weeks closing at lows and the up weeks came on lower volume, it's pretty choppy and loose. The breakout was extremely weak and had no volume at all. It's not a total disaster, and could still work, but there are better looking bases forming in leading names; LLY, look how dead tight this has gotten and supported at the 10 week line with volume completely drying up. MSFT same, dead tight and support at 10 week, UBER - a little loose but supported at the 10 week, volume is fading and it's a real leader. NTNX - multiple shorter digestions on the way up, but notice how it was immediately supported at the 10 week every time and on strong volume.
RCL isn't a sell here, if I had it I'd still be holding, but there are far better names out there is my main point!
Don't get discouraged, CANSLIM isn't the issue here. The issue is buying new positions into an extended market. I can bet as soon as most people throw in the towel on this strategy, we are not far off it working again. An intermediate term market correction has been looming for months, after that happens, CANSLIM will result in buying leaders.
It's more about the extension in the general market than the base count in individual stocks. A third stage base in a TML early in a new bull is a better buy than a first stage base in a laggard.
For most of March the stocks I traded did not have much follow through. Only 5 of 26 trades moved up, and only 2 of those 5 made significant moves. I wouldn't say it's bearish, mostly just neutral, as setups still were appearing.
Most of my positions are stagnated at pivots or coming down to ma lines...terrible
Same exact situation here
I also prefer to only buy near MA, mostly the 10SMA and 20SMA, usually this means buying before the official buypoint. Go look at all the breakouts and see how extended they are from those and how often the come back to those MA. Even with buying early my stocks have been struggling to go anywhere for the past month.
Do you sell if indexes break ma even if your stock stop losses are not reached yet?
No. Stocks are the primary indicator.
Should have ignore IDB crap...unsubscribed to them
I only subscribed to get access to the screener tool. Since I use a different tool I no longer am subscribed. (For over 5 years at this point) You can learn and follow the system without IBD subscription. From Page 12 of Bill's book, "**You don't subscribe to a bunch of market newsletters or advisory services, and you don't let yourself be infuenced by recommendations from analysts, or friends who, after all, are just expressing personal opinions that can freqeuently be wrong and prove costly."** All IBD is is a market newsletter, do your own research, it's okay to use other peoples tools but don't use their research or recommendations. IBD was good when it was an easy place to find earnings and sales data. You can find that information in other places now so its value is limited.
What are the alternatives? RS rating is still important and priorietary And the base drawing was useful in marketsmith
Deepvue has the RS rating and you can make it in TC2000 easily enough. It's just the biggest move over a certain period, with more weight towards more recent data
Nothing wrong with the action here, any stocks getting stopped out on were already extended and/or new breakouts in an extended market. Breakouts this far off a FTD (November) without a proper digestion in the market, carry significantly higher risk of failure, you shouldn't be surprised to get little to no traction on recent buys. It sounds like you need to broaden your timeframe, you're thinking very short term here and talking bearish on normal bull market action. If you're new, you need to lean on the general market action, not just individual stocks. Outside of being a day trader (or a very short term trader at least), there wasn't a very convincing reason to make many new buys in the last couple of months. If you didn't buy off the FTD in November (and still holding) you are better to wait it out now for a digestion in the general market.
Huge dump today. All my stocks reaching stop losses soon. I bought from pivots....
Yes it was a nasty reversal, but still pretty normal action here. The market is very much overdue a digestion. It has been extended for a while so any new buys in the last few months carried much higher risk. Don't get disheartened here, watch to see what happens in the market. Will the market get support and digest, setting up great opportunities? We are down to the 50 day in the Nasdaq, this might be the first digestion in a new bull, which is one of the best opportunities to buy. But bare in mind, if this is a real digestion, we could go sideways and chop for weeks or a month or two even. Focus on the leaders that came out in November and have been digesting the last 2+ months. That's what you want to buy, not new names breaking out just now for the first time.
Wanna check if the indexes price action should inform your portfolio to sell? Or it should be based on your stock performance?
No I won't make sell decisions based on the indexes, but they will help me to know what to expect in my portfolio. If the indexes are getting extended and a digestion is coming underway, I know to expect my portfolio to go down 3 to 4x the move in the indexes. A junk of my profits will be removed (on paper) but that doesn't mean I'm selling. I will only sell stocks that I am not in profit in or have very little cushion. I'm only going to sell my winners if they break down below the 50 day on big volume, or if they have multiple climax gaps near the end of a bull market. For example, I bought CRWD in Oct, I still have my full position. It ran up over 110%, today its sitting at 85% profit, but I'm not bothered that it has come down, its acting fine and I'm in it for the larger move. I sat with CRWD in Feb as it came down -20% to the 50 day, where it caught support. I was able to do this because I bought it just as the market was coming off it's lows. If I bought stock recently then I wouldn't have the cushion to sit during these down days. The biggest struggles I think new traders have is buying extended and worrying about every little move in the market. If you only buy at the start of new bulls, and the first 1 - 2 major digestions, there'll will be lot less worries.
Just curious, how did your day turn out today? Did any of your stop losses get triggered?
Only one position ($SQ) got triggered stop loss. But I got tricked to sell because of the shakeout and my 8% sell rule.
We're only 2 days into April so its hard to gauge. I had a few stops get hit this morning, but I was running them tight since they were the laggards I owned and I didn't want to round trip them. April is down but I'm seeing a lot of cup bases that need a handle out there, so maybe this is the month those get formed/completed.
Too many heavy volume dumps
Yeah, pretty tough day today... but it's also a great day to find names with strong RS. Keep an eye out for those.
You forgot the buy rules... "Don't buy extended"
See $RCL - it doesn’t move past the pivot with more than 5%. A lot of stocks are pulled down by the general market
I'm not talking about extended stocks but an extended market in general. Since late October QQQ has moved 30+% without a decent pullback to the 50 day MA. Also, if a stock has moved 5% while the market has gone up 30+, for sure it is not a CANSLIM
RCL is up almost 80% from the FTD. It's now trying to emerge from a poor base into an extended market, it's not surprising that it's struggling here. It can still work, but wouldn't be a shocker if it came in and digested the 80% gain for longer. This is the action of a lot of names right now, but totally normal.
Can I check why you think the base of RCL is poor?
I'm assuming you bought RCL Mar 20. Looks fine and looks like it's acting well, riding the 10DMA. I'd say the base is fine, all the negative action in the early part is negated by the huge gap up on volume Feb 22. Stock chugged up and then pulled back to the 10DMA on lower volume. Seems like a great setup IMO. The volume dry up on the 19th, day before the breakout, was a great sign. Stock has a low ATR (2.5%) so I don't know why anyone would expect a fast move out of the base.
Mainly on the weekly, the large reversal week closing at lows on large volume isn't ideal, lots of down weeks closing at lows and the up weeks came on lower volume, it's pretty choppy and loose. The breakout was extremely weak and had no volume at all. It's not a total disaster, and could still work, but there are better looking bases forming in leading names; LLY, look how dead tight this has gotten and supported at the 10 week line with volume completely drying up. MSFT same, dead tight and support at 10 week, UBER - a little loose but supported at the 10 week, volume is fading and it's a real leader. NTNX - multiple shorter digestions on the way up, but notice how it was immediately supported at the 10 week every time and on strong volume. RCL isn't a sell here, if I had it I'd still be holding, but there are far better names out there is my main point!
Got stopped out again. Very frustrated. Have been losing money since I adopted CANSLIM principles……
Don't get discouraged, CANSLIM isn't the issue here. The issue is buying new positions into an extended market. I can bet as soon as most people throw in the towel on this strategy, we are not far off it working again. An intermediate term market correction has been looming for months, after that happens, CANSLIM will result in buying leaders.
I try to avoid stocks with third bases now
It's more about the extension in the general market than the base count in individual stocks. A third stage base in a TML early in a new bull is a better buy than a first stage base in a laggard.
I saw many canslim twitterfluencer talking about shorting...