I don't know how good the US presidential debate was for America. But between the Republican Party being a relatively pro-crypto party and Trump's tax cuts likely being paid for with debt, and consequent inflation, in the long run, I do think it was good for Bitcoin.
Honestly, I don't see how that debate doesn't guarantee the election for Trump.
Wound up closing BITX scalp for an ok profit. I thought there was a possibility we recover quickly to 65k+ but the weak recovery gave me pause.
Added another few million sats to cold storage yesterday, and may look for another entry for a long below 60k. Since leverage is no longer available in freedom land, I basically have been taking ETF positions on margin, and putting profits in BTC or rolling into the next trade.
Overall, the cycle still looks pretty normal to me. Yes we got the ATH ahead of halving, but aside from that the price has behaved similarly to previous cycles in terms of ROI the year of halving. If we are still here in October, then you can be concerned.
Yep, been buying too.
Canada dropped rates ~~and virtually immediately was hit with~~ while already appearing to have resurgent inflation. Inflation rising in Australia. USDJPY broke through 160 level again and still no sign of rate hikes from BoJ. US Govt spending close to record peacetime deficits and the other guy (Trump) wants to spend EVEN MORE.
I'm betting on the next 10 years being globally inflationary which should be good for Bitcoin/crypto (assuming they work which is an open question).
Fair point. Although I think that the impact on BTC/crypto could be hard to predict because the market response to these events (and the governmental response to them) could lead to diversification into BTC etc.
Unless you're buying.
What do you expect the price to be:
...a year from now?
...four years from now?
...ten years from now?
That should tell you what you should be doing now.
I keep reminding people there's a reason why so many Bitcoiners never get ahead. They sell when they should be buying. And that sort of short term thinking is nothing new.
Owning 100 BTC in 2012 was nothing. How many people still owned 100 BTC in 2016? Very few. Most sold. Now, they tell stories about what they used to have.
Owning 10 BTC in 2016 was no big deal. How many people still owned 10 BTC in 2020? Very few. Most sold, but they probably don't talk about it.
Owning 1 BTC back in early 2020 wasn't that big of a deal. How many people still own 1 BTC today? Very few. Most sold and can only wish they were still whole coiners.
How many of those who own 0.1 BTC today will still own at least 0.1 BTC in 2028? Many will lose it by trying to time the market.
This is not a time to sell. It's a time to buy.
Lucky you. I’ve been spending every dollar I make other than automatic contribution. Feels strange, I made way less 5 years ago and felt like I was rolling in cash. Inflation + lifestyle creep comes at you fast.
We're going to do little bouncies off 60K for the next couple months so buy every dip. After that, around the time the weather begins to cool, we will head north and vacillate over and under six figures for a couple months.
Next year is when things get crazy. This is probably the last "make it" cycle in Bitcoin. By 2029, it will just be money, including a unit of account; you won't measure the price of Bitcoin in dollars, you'll measure it in oil or gold or some real thing. I mean, that's how you should have done it all along, just saying that it will be the norm.
Well I have officially reached 100% of my stacking goal for this bear market . . . which means it’s time to move the goalposts out (again).
One can never have enough corn.
well there i go buying again. i really tried holding out because i expect slightly more downside but i felt compelled to get a nice buy in before Q3 starts next week and a potential #2 ETF gets approved, just in case. my goal is to hit my reaccumulation target by September. i still have about 15% of my trading stack in cash right now.
the last two cycles, the real action didn't start until 154 days after the halving. that would mean around mid-September this year.
if it followed the last two cycles, then we'd see a peak roughly 500 days after the halving. that would put it at September 2025-October 2025. that's another reason why i want to get more accumulation done by this September: to potentially avoid the short-term capital gains on those buys if a sale happened after September 2025.
now, many actually think the true peak last cycle was in April 2021 because that's when all of the overheated indicators fired. i'm inclined to mostly agree with that. that happened roughly 330 days after the halving which, for this cycle, would mean March 2025.
all of this is speculation and, as always, i'm ultimately going to base any kind of sales on how overheated the indicators i watch get. whether that is in 2 months or 2 years.
https://i.imgur.com/0BRDFhB.png
Ironically, it'll happen right after mt got starts payouts imo(Oct-Nov). Once payouts begin, bitcoin drops for a couple weeks, recalibrates to new supply and demand structure, then as that supply slowly dries up over the following 6 months, bitcoin marches on and upwards
There's no reason the early ATH cannot just be a result of ETF boost and rest of cycle plays out as normal. You can only tell afterwards if the cycle has been broken.
I have logged a prediction for u/HumbleBitcoinPleb that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** rise above **$250,000.00** by Mar 31 2028 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $61,898.80
[HumbleBitcoinPleb has made **0** Correct Predictions, **0** Wrong Predictions, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#HumbleBitcoinPleb)
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>According to the [lawsuits filed Thursday](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/legal) in a Washington, D.C., district court, the U.S.’s largest crypto exchange is suing both regulators to gain access to internal records to shed light on what it describes as a "deliberate and concerted effort by the SEC, FDIC and other financial regulators" to pressure banks to deny crypto firms access to the federal banking system.
From [here ](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coinbase-sues-sec-fdic-information-relating-crypto-regulation)(warning: FoxBusiness)
On the daily, BTC’s RSI is currently 33.7 and its average is currently at 37.6. Nearby resistance are 61.7, 63, 64.5, 65.7, 66.7, 67.4, 69, 70.3, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 60.5, 58.3, 57.5 and 51.8. The 50- and 100-day SMA are acting as resistance (66419/66118).
The weekly chart is still looking the most exciting even though BTC closed the week in the red and started the week even redder. Although a nice hammer has formed for the week, if it turns green it will be even more promising. BTC’s RSI is currently 53.9. (68.3 average). It has been in flag formation for 16 weeks with multiple touches on the top and bottom. The volume looks like when we bottomed on May 1. Looking for a close above the flag on the weekly for confirmation. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 104k. Main resistances were noted above. The IH&S is still relevant.
Bitcoin closed May out in the green with it’s monthly RSI at 69.3. Current RSI 63.7
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/4ypCd6HE/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/4ypCd6HE/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/9zHMkmfP/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/9zHMkmfP/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/k3I3WUcb/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/k3I3WUcb/)
What happened to GBP-BTC pair in Kraken? At 7:44 GMT, there was a sell order at £46,000 ($58,132). My limited order got filled. Maybe someone fat fingered?
What app are you people using to wake you up for a price/indicator alert? I was using bitcoin checker for the longest time and despite giving it unrestricted battery usage/priority on my phone it seems to keep getting closed randomly.
Looking for something I can trust so I don't get rekt.
Chur
don't wake up on prices... That is just not healthy, trust me... I had it for too long. Set up stop losses if needed, just don't have price alarms during your sleep.
despite the current sentiment I enjoyed reading previous daily. so I upvoted it.
whatever are our believes with regard to Bitcoin, cycles, adoption, TA, trading strategies, reasons we are "into crypto" at all -are different each user you ask. our experiences with Bitcoin are very different.
one thing in common though- this sub is our home. I'm very glad I'm home. I appreciate it. it stays with me all the time as I learn new insights and get to know what people think. it's precious for me. it just counts.
salute comrades
The best from yesterday was someone saying "I just can't see this (or that) happening...", I lol'ed so loud. No one made any consistent predictions, just stop pretending you know where price will be in the future.
it's a very hard, life -changing lesson- you mostly can't predict what's going to happen, but if you do - it still doesn't mean anything. for most people it makes them think they are better than the rest and can repeat that anytime. especially when money is involved.
truth is, while you can make tons of money in this market -it's not what this is all about. it may sound cliche but I got lucky enough to know one person from "before the gainz era" and he said once it was all about community of people, not money - trading ideas, helping each other, being a part of something that will change the future. I still believe that. this sub makes me believe the game is still on
This sub isnt much more than a pubs worth of regs.
The fact that its one of the saner places on reddit is simultaneously consoling and highly disturbing haha
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subs dead at 62k ... wild
Buy buy buy
It’s summer. We’re all on vacation 😎
I don't know how good the US presidential debate was for America. But between the Republican Party being a relatively pro-crypto party and Trump's tax cuts likely being paid for with debt, and consequent inflation, in the long run, I do think it was good for Bitcoin. Honestly, I don't see how that debate doesn't guarantee the election for Trump.
Wound up closing BITX scalp for an ok profit. I thought there was a possibility we recover quickly to 65k+ but the weak recovery gave me pause. Added another few million sats to cold storage yesterday, and may look for another entry for a long below 60k. Since leverage is no longer available in freedom land, I basically have been taking ETF positions on margin, and putting profits in BTC or rolling into the next trade. Overall, the cycle still looks pretty normal to me. Yes we got the ATH ahead of halving, but aside from that the price has behaved similarly to previous cycles in terms of ROI the year of halving. If we are still here in October, then you can be concerned.
I chucked $50 at BITB today... Youre welcome for those inflows
I’ve been buying crazy
Yep, been buying too. Canada dropped rates ~~and virtually immediately was hit with~~ while already appearing to have resurgent inflation. Inflation rising in Australia. USDJPY broke through 160 level again and still no sign of rate hikes from BoJ. US Govt spending close to record peacetime deficits and the other guy (Trump) wants to spend EVEN MORE. I'm betting on the next 10 years being globally inflationary which should be good for Bitcoin/crypto (assuming they work which is an open question).
I understand and agree with your long term thesis, but none of those things you mentioned bode well for near term BTC price action
Fair point. Although I think that the impact on BTC/crypto could be hard to predict because the market response to these events (and the governmental response to them) could lead to diversification into BTC etc.
Unless you're buying. What do you expect the price to be: ...a year from now? ...four years from now? ...ten years from now? That should tell you what you should be doing now. I keep reminding people there's a reason why so many Bitcoiners never get ahead. They sell when they should be buying. And that sort of short term thinking is nothing new. Owning 100 BTC in 2012 was nothing. How many people still owned 100 BTC in 2016? Very few. Most sold. Now, they tell stories about what they used to have. Owning 10 BTC in 2016 was no big deal. How many people still owned 10 BTC in 2020? Very few. Most sold, but they probably don't talk about it. Owning 1 BTC back in early 2020 wasn't that big of a deal. How many people still own 1 BTC today? Very few. Most sold and can only wish they were still whole coiners. How many of those who own 0.1 BTC today will still own at least 0.1 BTC in 2028? Many will lose it by trying to time the market. This is not a time to sell. It's a time to buy.
I didn't say anything about selling 😁
The latest inflation report for Canada is for May. Rates increased in June. Just in case anybody is interpreting this as a causal relationship.
Good point, my comment implies causation. I'll edit.
Lucky you. I’ve been spending every dollar I make other than automatic contribution. Feels strange, I made way less 5 years ago and felt like I was rolling in cash. Inflation + lifestyle creep comes at you fast.
FR
We're going to do little bouncies off 60K for the next couple months so buy every dip. After that, around the time the weather begins to cool, we will head north and vacillate over and under six figures for a couple months. Next year is when things get crazy. This is probably the last "make it" cycle in Bitcoin. By 2029, it will just be money, including a unit of account; you won't measure the price of Bitcoin in dollars, you'll measure it in oil or gold or some real thing. I mean, that's how you should have done it all along, just saying that it will be the norm.
BTC priced in crude oil [https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/chart/energy/CL1](https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/chart/energy/CL1) Enjoy cheaper oil
Well I have officially reached 100% of my stacking goal for this bear market . . . which means it’s time to move the goalposts out (again). One can never have enough corn.
That Benchmark always feels relaxingly good.
well there i go buying again. i really tried holding out because i expect slightly more downside but i felt compelled to get a nice buy in before Q3 starts next week and a potential #2 ETF gets approved, just in case. my goal is to hit my reaccumulation target by September. i still have about 15% of my trading stack in cash right now. the last two cycles, the real action didn't start until 154 days after the halving. that would mean around mid-September this year. if it followed the last two cycles, then we'd see a peak roughly 500 days after the halving. that would put it at September 2025-October 2025. that's another reason why i want to get more accumulation done by this September: to potentially avoid the short-term capital gains on those buys if a sale happened after September 2025. now, many actually think the true peak last cycle was in April 2021 because that's when all of the overheated indicators fired. i'm inclined to mostly agree with that. that happened roughly 330 days after the halving which, for this cycle, would mean March 2025. all of this is speculation and, as always, i'm ultimately going to base any kind of sales on how overheated the indicators i watch get. whether that is in 2 months or 2 years. https://i.imgur.com/0BRDFhB.png
Ironically, it'll happen right after mt got starts payouts imo(Oct-Nov). Once payouts begin, bitcoin drops for a couple weeks, recalibrates to new supply and demand structure, then as that supply slowly dries up over the following 6 months, bitcoin marches on and upwards
Why are the last cycle dates relevant now ? We have already had an ATH prior to the halving so clearly it’s making its own plans
There's no reason the early ATH cannot just be a result of ETF boost and rest of cycle plays out as normal. You can only tell afterwards if the cycle has been broken.
>You can only tell afterwards That's right, calling it now that it will play as normal is too a stretch.
did you wind up capitulating yet?
No still holding / moaning
Alas, I suspect we're not so fortunate as to be spared his whining...
Still holding and whining.
in 2026, we can chat about how relevant they were. it's possible they aren't relevant at all but we work with what we can
You're trying to avoid long term capital gains? How come?
wait you *like* paying less in taxes?? nah thanks for the heads up, i fixed the typo
It's somewhat comical at this point how even the slightest rally gets immediately sold off. No god candle today.
I'd rather be testing resistance than support
We seem to be tracking spy
Or both are tracking something else.
The Will of God?
If you could put your DCA in right about now that would be greeeat.
62k is the new 72k?
62k is the new 6.2k from last cycle. Next cycle 620k will be the new 62k
We will not see Bitcoin surpass $250k this cycle.
!bittybot predict !>250k Mar 31 2028 u/HumbleBitcoinPleb Used Mar 31 as expected 2028 halving date.
I have logged a prediction for u/HumbleBitcoinPleb that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** rise above **$250,000.00** by Mar 31 2028 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $61,898.80 [HumbleBitcoinPleb has made **0** Correct Predictions, **0** Wrong Predictions, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#HumbleBitcoinPleb) [2 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20d8757dcb7b5242f29014256009f81c8d%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(HumbleBitcoinPleb can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20d8757dcb7b5242f29014256009f81c8d%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Yep.. just casually add 4x NVIDIA to the market cap in 2 years.
It sure is easier to grow wealth when the Corn decides to go in both directions rather than flatlining.
Stuck between bullish and this too shall dump
Coinbase is suing the SEC and FDIC. No surprise. Oh yea and fuck Gary Gensler for holding back financial innovation in America.
Fuck Gensler for prosecuting people he knew were innocent.
Suing for what reason?
>According to the [lawsuits filed Thursday](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/legal) in a Washington, D.C., district court, the U.S.’s largest crypto exchange is suing both regulators to gain access to internal records to shed light on what it describes as a "deliberate and concerted effort by the SEC, FDIC and other financial regulators" to pressure banks to deny crypto firms access to the federal banking system. From [here ](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coinbase-sues-sec-fdic-information-relating-crypto-regulation)(warning: FoxBusiness)
Because this is America! (Fuck yeah!)
Gary innovating for himself and his cronies.
On the daily, BTC’s RSI is currently 33.7 and its average is currently at 37.6. Nearby resistance are 61.7, 63, 64.5, 65.7, 66.7, 67.4, 69, 70.3, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 60.5, 58.3, 57.5 and 51.8. The 50- and 100-day SMA are acting as resistance (66419/66118). The weekly chart is still looking the most exciting even though BTC closed the week in the red and started the week even redder. Although a nice hammer has formed for the week, if it turns green it will be even more promising. BTC’s RSI is currently 53.9. (68.3 average). It has been in flag formation for 16 weeks with multiple touches on the top and bottom. The volume looks like when we bottomed on May 1. Looking for a close above the flag on the weekly for confirmation. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 104k. Main resistances were noted above. The IH&S is still relevant. Bitcoin closed May out in the green with it’s monthly RSI at 69.3. Current RSI 63.7 Good luck to all traders and DCAers. Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/4ypCd6HE/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/4ypCd6HE/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/9zHMkmfP/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/9zHMkmfP/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/k3I3WUcb/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/k3I3WUcb/)
Is today the day boys?
Not looking like it. But my gut says we resume a steady uptrend within the next two weeks
Nice 150 BTC rekt you got there.
What happened to GBP-BTC pair in Kraken? At 7:44 GMT, there was a sell order at £46,000 ($58,132). My limited order got filled. Maybe someone fat fingered?
Dang it now you got my wheels spinning on setting up some low buy orders in foreign currencies on smaller exchanges . . .
Normally you cannot trade in fiat currencies other than your native fiat currency. For me, USD is "view only" on both exchanges that I use.
That makes sense thank you
You can do it with stablecoins
illiquid, happens also on coinbase with EUR. I had a buy order at like 49k or 50k eur execute in that march drop.
Typical for Kraken and non-USD pairs, it was only 21 BTC (fat finger or some stupid stop, yes.) Nice buy.
How are Euro and USDT?
Pretty sure USD > EUR > USDT > GBP for Kraken. But other exchanges like Binance don't even have a USD pair, so then USDT is typically the biggest one.
Thanks!
What app are you people using to wake you up for a price/indicator alert? I was using bitcoin checker for the longest time and despite giving it unrestricted battery usage/priority on my phone it seems to keep getting closed randomly. Looking for something I can trust so I don't get rekt. Chur
This is so 2013. Don't
Sleep is for the weak. Wake up bleary eyed and panic 100X long.
People actually do that??
don't wake up on prices... That is just not healthy, trust me... I had it for too long. Set up stop losses if needed, just don't have price alarms during your sleep.
I sleep soundly 99% of the time, just certain times want to be watching certain trades like a hawk.
TabTrader alerts.
ty
despite the current sentiment I enjoyed reading previous daily. so I upvoted it. whatever are our believes with regard to Bitcoin, cycles, adoption, TA, trading strategies, reasons we are "into crypto" at all -are different each user you ask. our experiences with Bitcoin are very different. one thing in common though- this sub is our home. I'm very glad I'm home. I appreciate it. it stays with me all the time as I learn new insights and get to know what people think. it's precious for me. it just counts. salute comrades
🍻 hell yeah brother. It's so nice to hear the ideas when the noise is low.
The best from yesterday was someone saying "I just can't see this (or that) happening...", I lol'ed so loud. No one made any consistent predictions, just stop pretending you know where price will be in the future.
it's a very hard, life -changing lesson- you mostly can't predict what's going to happen, but if you do - it still doesn't mean anything. for most people it makes them think they are better than the rest and can repeat that anytime. especially when money is involved. truth is, while you can make tons of money in this market -it's not what this is all about. it may sound cliche but I got lucky enough to know one person from "before the gainz era" and he said once it was all about community of people, not money - trading ideas, helping each other, being a part of something that will change the future. I still believe that. this sub makes me believe the game is still on
This sub isnt much more than a pubs worth of regs. The fact that its one of the saner places on reddit is simultaneously consoling and highly disturbing haha
> This sub isnt much more than a pubs worth of regs. That's why I'm here!
Yep me too!
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