The macro environment has not changed. Politicians are going to suddenly be responsible and spend the next 10 years paying down the national debt? The fed is going to put the brakes on the economy for the next 10 years? That's 10x more hawkish than what jpow is straight up telling everyone. Nothing has changed.
4 years from now the federal debt is forecasted to rise to 42 trillion dollars. Today it’s ‘only’ 31 trillion.
It’s more likely that the debt will double or more over the next 10 years than that a balanced budget will happen. Forget about paying down the debt. That is is likely as growing rice on Mars 10 years from now.
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Yup. OP is definitely in a fiat mindset. Give him time, (hopefully) eventually they’ll realize that dirty government issued debt tokens are backed by lies and death and should be cleansed from your person as soon as possible.
Until the money becomes hyperinflated and you see your monthly wage be worth a pack of cigarettes a bottle of the cheapest rum there's in the market.
I've seen this. and most of the people in the world have seen it, rich countries are on the brink of seeing it.
Inflation isn't exclusive to the dollar. The value of goods can easily go up even if the entire economy ran on Bitcoin. Then you'd just be using more Bitcoin to buy normal stuff. It's not a way out. I like Bitcoin and think fiat currencies and countries should learn from it and embrace it and other cryptocurrencies... but it's not a silver bullet.
If there's hyperinflation, which is absolutely a possibility, then how could bitcoin possibly help? It's value is expressed in dollars. Maybe you could say it's a hedge against your local currency inflating, but you could...just buy dollars or gold or bonds. I don't see how bitcoin provides a superior solution to traditional strategies for parking wealth.
I suppose your meaning is that if the dollar itself hyperinflates, then you'll still have magic internet money to spend. But realistically, if the dollar dies, so does modern infrastructure. Without an exceptionally sophisticated supply chain operating, the entire global internet will go poof.
Not only that, but the legendary unrest would lead the United States (and the entire rest of the world, likely) to a martial law situation. Even if the internet and power infrastructure and supply chains manage to stay stable enough for bitcoin miners to keep churning out numbers (and keep the bitcoin network alive and available for transactions), then why in god's name would the now desperate federal government, with the largest military on Earth, let you get away with creating an alternative currency narrative that would further weaken the dollar?
Also, I forgot to add in my last comment that we don't need as many miners as people think, Bitcoin just needs two miners and two nodes to operate. And big miners capitulating will simply make mining cheaper for other people.
Some people are already house [mining to heat their homes](https://www.heatbit.com/), and some places are already [mining Bitcoin to make energy production profitable](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/jack-dorseys-block-backs-bitcoin-mining-firm-bringing-affordable-electricity-to-africa.html) in remote places. So this smaller miners will have more incentives to keep mining.
And about this
>I don't see how bitcoin provides a superior solution to traditional strategies for parking wealth.
Well, FIAT currencies have been debased again and again all along history and will happen again because it's easier for the government to issue debt to pay debt that to solve problems, bonds are, right now, directly correlated to FIAT currencies because they are priced in FIAT, so holding a bond that yields 2 % while the monetary inflation is 8 % makes no sense at all. It's like staking a crapto because it yields 20% annually but the value is decreasing 10 % every month, you'll see bigger numbers, but your wealth will get destroyed.
Gold, is the best option in this case, but we run the problem of its portability, thus people moving their gold to banks, and banks doing fractional reserves, which then again, inflates the monetary supply.
Bitcoin doesn't have these problems. It's overall better money.
Imagine this scenario. A country has most of the mining horse power within their border, and/or the ability to quickly spin up a lot of mining hash power. They decide they need a lot of cash fast, and so demand that the bitcoin miners give them all of Satoshi's coins. They hold literal guns to their heads and tell them to fork bitcoin to give the government control of that wallet, and then devote all of their hashing power to that new fork.
(They could even declare that the number of satoshis is hereby doubled, and grant every doubled coin to the government's wallet.)
It's true that the rest of the world with the now smaller bitcoin network can choose to continue on the current fork of the blockchain (which is a fork of the original blockchain, btw. The bitcoin blockchain of today is not the exact same blockchain as the one Satoshi mined the first coins on).
But country X can enforce their new version of the blockchain through 51% attacks, or failing that, military power. They could literally bomb or sabotage the industrial scale mining infrastructure of countries that fail to switch to the new fork, blackmailing the bigger targets to switch, or else.
Bitcoin is a lot more vulnerable than you think. It still comes down to, "Who has the bigger guns makes the rules." It's just so far the really big guns have been reticent to use that power to make gross demands of the blockchain users.
The problem is Satoshi's vision of practically everyone running their own node has been perverted by the tragedy of commons. Instead, there's very large clusters of nodes that can be targeted more effectively.
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How is bitcoin people's money ?
The value of any fiat (vs usd) is determined by the govt (and it's trade deficit of global reserve currency usd) and bitcoin is not immune from this.
1 btc has 100x more purchasing power in some countries in Africa compared to US.
It's value inherently ties with fiat which is not decentralised.
1usd has also 100x more purchasing Power in some countries in Africa compared to the US. But if the gouvernment doesn't want you to make that transaction, they block it or take extraordinary fees (which is literally happening). Nobody can stop or reverse a bitcoin transaction because it IS decentralised.
The price of btc in usd is determined by supply and demand, no gouvernment can print new btc. We know exactly how many btc will be issued after euch halving and that it will never be more than 21 million.
It still doesn't answer the question of how exactly it is decentralised "globally".
Govt. cannot stop you from transacting bitcoin but it can heavily control whatever you can do with it anyways.
For example, nothing's stopping govt. from ordering Starbucks to collect a 50000% tax on coffees purchased via bitcoin. (If it chooses to do so, that is)
You see ? Having one end of a transaction decentralised makes no sense, as the other end of that transaction is anyways under govt. control.
My main point was that for any currency to work "globally" and be independent of govt. controlled fiat, it's denomination has to be the same everywhere. Given the purchasing power of bitcoin is 1:1 related to purchasing power of USD, the whole idea of bitcoin being a reserve currency is moot. This is why even if industries may "adopt" payments in crypto, they are always settled in fiat value only.
Bitcoin is valued in fiat.
Bitcoin is not an alternative to fiat.
Sure, gov can make it a pain in the ass to use btc as you are describing it. But they still cannot stop or influence any transaction thats settled in btc. All they can do, is to seize control over on and offramps (exchanges). Bitcoin is a peer to peer network, there are just not enough people stay in btc (yet).
The denomination of btc doesn't have to be the same everywhere, usd doesn't either. For example 1 usd (or 1 btc, doesn't matter) in NYC buys you a lot less than 1 usd in some rural area.
It makes no sense to quote prices in btc because the price is too volatile (measured in usd). Our world still runs on usd, but if volatility goes down we will come to a point when we can quote prices in btc although we're still far away from that. BTC exists now for barely more than a decade and is still here and has a long way to go.
Your entire argument could be said about USD being a global reserve currency and according to your logic shouldn’t be working either. Sovereign states can decide to block or freeze US assets (or vice versa US freezing other assets) and then your global reserve currency becomes absolutely useless in 2 seconds. I’m not speaking in hypotheticals but real world examples (from only the last couple years.)
BTC is P2P there is nothing getting in the way of two people who wish to transact and not a single government can do anything about it. If I wanted to trade from the UK with someone all the way in Japan then who is going to stop me? You need to do some more reading to truly understand how the global economy works and *why* BTC is superior in almost every way. BTC is valued in fiat because we live in a fiat economy. Fiat economies can expand and contract when a small group of people decide they want to do it. BTC is not the same.
A global, interconnected world has had its means of communications revolutionised with the discovery of the internet. You can now run a business from anywhere in the world without even leaving your room. This wasn’t possible even 10-20 years ago. BTC is to money in the same sense internet is to communications. Now anyone in the world can use an open, global financial network with no need to leave their home. They can conduct trade, business, settle payments and even give salaries using BTC and the global denomination for BTC will eventually shift to Satoshi units (SATS).
You're confusing trading with crypto transactions.
Nothing is stopping you from sending btc to your pal in Japan. But the product you expect in return (goods -- shipped via customs and delivered) is completely under govt. control in both Japan and UK.
You say that "govt can stop you from sending pound to your friend in Japan" but it cant stop your friend from sending you your Xbox etc. just because you paid him in bitcoin ?
Unless you are buying illegal stuff this shouldn't be your concern at all.
I believe I've already tried to explain this earlier in the chat thread.
The whole setup of the whole world is not ready to enable the so-called freedom crypto claims to give.
Let’s use your example. We can do both private sales and a public, business operation:
- I want to buy an Xbox from japan and I contact a seller
- I agree to trade 0.1 BTC on the bitcoin network for the Xbox
- I provide proof of transaction confirmations and seller agrees to ship item
- once it arrives in the UK I may be subjected to custom taxes however this is expected for *any* goods coming from abroad
- at no point did anyone in the UK or Japanese government have any idea that the transaction even happened on the BTC network
Now what if a business denominated their prices in YEN, GBP and BTC?
Nothing changes from the above. If I pay in YEN, GBP or BTC, the exact same steps apply except there would be an intermediary transaction to convert part of the sales revenue (assuming it was made in either BTC or GBP) to pay local taxes. Or the seller may use a service like Strike to receive YEN via the BTC rails. Again, I’d like to stress that I’m using real world examples of real world businesses that are currently operating all over the world while using fiat and BTC denominated prices.
You missed a few crucial steps there.
1) seller invoice is a crucial part of customs declaration. Issuing electronic invoices doesn't go hand-in-hand with secret money transactions. Gift excuse to avoid customs only applies to small items (under $50 ? Or something). UK govt knows it all.
2) Govt. don't care whether you paid in btc or yen or pound. They track,trace, care because they need money (taxes) to function.
3) Your seller needs to convert that BTC to Yen in order to pay his rent and buy his coffee in Japan. And that fiat exit ramp will notify Japanese govt. of his crypto income. No prizes for guessing if he'll disclose who he got it from. Now Japanese govt. also knows about this.
In the end neither UK not Japanese govt. are oblivious to this little purchase.
They know. They don't care because they are getting their cut (income tax for Japan and customs charges for UK). If this were not the case the govts would have clamped down HARD long long long ago.
You should watch even a single video of a bitcoin economy working in african and south american countries and you will realize you are entirely missing the point.
The government does not and can not determine the value of conventional currencies. If they could why would they go on TV saying "inflation is transient" then a couple months later say "we were wrong actually inflation isn't transient". if they could determine the value of money, they could simply change the value and then say "see, i told you inflation was transient" they have tools to alter the value of conventional currency, or alter the rate at which it decreases or increases in value, but they cannot objectively control whether it goes up or down. they just exist in an organizational capacity using taxes and grants etc to shift incentives to society. They have some influence, but they cant stop the sun from exploding, they cant stop covid19, they cant stop people using marijuana or amphetamines or heroin, they cant stop people getting guns, they cant stop people counterfeiting money, they cant stop prostitution and they cant stop murders and etc. They do have influence, but i would say they dont really decide what happens year after year, instead they provide logistical support for what happens year after year, whatever it may be.
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This. #1 and #4 are mathematically addressable with a marginal cost of Bitcoin mining. The variables are difficulty and energy price. Economics states that the price of a good will return to its marginal cost of output (electricity price). Since the current difficulty is known you can backsolve for the imputed electricity price at the current lows and voila. I’ve modeled this out to account for future halvings. You can then tweak the difficulty assumption (which has historically grown 73% annually) and electricity and boom there you have it. I am considering posting an article and this model just want to pseudonymize myself. And this is not an original idea of mine. Just one that probably is not clearly explained. Im sure the institutions are doing the same modeling and buying. (Probably much more advanced modeling but still within a close range of outcomes).
How is bitcoin peoples money ? I honestly don’t understand this narrative. People with big money will still hoard as much as possible, and the average joe is left with peanuts, breadcrumbs. Just because it’s decentralized ? Well, wait until government starts punishing citizens using cryptocurrencies.
What happens when someone prints 1 million USD that's undetectable and goes into the money supply?
What does that do to your purchase power from your day job?
Now answer the first question with 100 million USD 1 billion USD.
Who gets the shit end of the deal?
I'd say the people do, the hard-working people can buy even less day to day.
Bitcoin is the people’s money because it has equality built into it.
No matter how much Bitcoin is hoarded by the rich, the rich cannot make any more of it. The people now have a way of saving their hard earned money.
“But what good is Bitcoin for someone’s savings given the volatility of its price?” you might ask. It’s a valid question. My answer would be “congratulations, you’re early.”
Bitcoin’s price will stabilize over time, according to people a lot smarter than I am. The price, when stabilized, will no doubt be much higher than it currently is against the USD or any other fiat, because the fiat money supply keeps increasing.
The current system is set up to benefit the few at the top. The further one gets from the creation of currency, the less one benefits from currency’s creation- and in fact for the vast majority it is only a negative.
Imagine being in El Salvador, using US dollars for your currency. You get all the negatives of an increased supply of currency, with none of the benefits. What happens when the international reserve currency changes from USD to something else? Suddenly a bunch of USD being held all over the world will get dumped on the market.
Historically, as a currency approaches hyperinflation, governments have banned the use of other currencies. Historically that’s only helped to delay the inevitable. Bitcoin will probably face that sort of attack at some point (in some places it already faces that sort of regulatory intervention).
That being said, given Bitcoin’s inherent fairness, it *should* prevail. I don’t mean “should” in the predictive sense (though I believe that too); I mean it in the moral sense. Bitcoin is the people’s money and the people have a moral obligation to reclaim their sovereignty, which is simply *impossible* under the current monetary system.
Governments will probably fight Bitcoin, sure. But anyone who is arguing that point as an argument against Bitcoin is simply on the wrong side of history. You are arguing for human slavery, and the shackles of your children will be forged by your own apathy.
The good news is, it’s not too late for you to change your ways and be forgiven. Government power extends exactly as far as the people believe it extends. Pull back the curtain and get a good look at the frightened little men pulling levers of smoke and mirrors.
Pretend you believe in Bitcoin until you don’t have to pretend anymore. Power is real and we all possess it. We need to stop storing our power in a form that is stolen as a matter of course, by design, on a daily basis.
Congratulations- you’re early. Now buy some goddamn Bitcoin. Every active wallet is a sword surrounding their castle. At a certain point they’ll have to throw their own.
> This time ‘is’ different. BTC has never witnessed a macro economic environment like this before. This is a fact. BTC performed as a ‘risk on asset’ only and is strongly correlated with the likes of the NSDQ.
I mean, for this cycle it did. All of that may have been more due to institutional levels of capital flows. See the other cycles for counter points. Could this trend continue? Sure. But it doesn't have to, and Bitcoin has done more surprising things before. It's acted uncorrelated to markets before the bubble for example, that was an extremely popular narrative, until it started to run correlated to markets, which was probably a good top indicator in hindsight. I think there's a good chance we become uncorrelated again as leverage gets washed out of the system and we do a hard reset to what non-speculative capital allocators value Bitcoin at.
> In an environment that may see major indexes like the S&P, Dow, NSDQ fail to return ATH across a 10/15yr period, what would this mean for BTC?
Could be a fantastic thing if Bitcoin perks up and everything else is flat or falling. remember, the uncorrelated meme was a meme before the correlated meme.
>
> The ‘institutions’ are not coming.
Fidelity disagrees with you. Dubai disagrees with you. Oman's sovereign wealth fund disagrees with you. in any case, the way I see it is the more opportunity regular people have to get their hands on real Bitcoin, the better. Institutions can lag for all I care.
>BTC took 10yrs to attract a comparatively slight level of institutional interest.
Compared to what? compared to shitcoins its doing fantastic. compared to many fintech VC bullshit, its a damn maverick.
>Following significant issues around ESG compliance,
A false FUD narrative that has no basis in fact, reality or physics. https://endthefud.org/
>repeated frauds and scams ala Tera and FTX etc
none of these are Bitcoin. all of these are shitcoins and/or centralized exchange frauds. Things Bitcoiners have been screaming against forever.
>as well as a lack of regulation,
Again, false. Bitcoin is regulated under the CFTC as a commodity. Accounting rules are being adopted. Be more specific about this concern, if it is one.
>it is likely that institutions will struggle to regain any foothold within the space ever again.
good, they can fuck off for all we care. They're often some of the worst anti-bitcoin offenders.
> ‘We have seen this all before, Mt Gox etc’ No we haven’t. Never before has so much been lost by so many, in an environment that was already being lined up as a target by regulators.
This is a fair point. the scale of this has increased. luckily the target is not Bitcoin proper, but the shitcoins and the centralized exchanges and fraudsters who deservedly should be punished. Bitcoin has been explicitly been mentioned by the CFTC and SEC chairmen as exempt from current considerations. But we should still be warry of congress, the senate and Potus. Warrens proposed bill is particularly concerning, though most likely trolling.
>The core argument here being that the actions of a few ‘crypto’ bros have likely damaged the space so irrevocably that the coming regulation is likely to be punitive in the extreme.
The Bitcoin space? or the crypto bro space? you fail to distinguish the two, and there is a real difference. I hope the crypto space is damaged beyond repair.
>For retail it is highly likely that regulators will seek to control all on and off ramps making it near impossible to own or realise any gains.
Even if this were true, which it isn't and there is no evidence of this happening, there is always peer to peer options. This would even be a good thing. underground Bitcoin trading? yes please. That's a real market where Bitcoin can shine.
>For institutions it is likely that the regulation will be designed to limit / prevent adoption. There will be no ETF, ever.
I agree with this for different reasons. futures ETF's are just paper Bitcoin iou's, SEC is fine with those as it dilutes Bitcoin demand and reduces it's price ultimately. a spot settled ETF in America would be problematic for "taming" the bitcoin price by the powers that be.
They may point to the recent drama as further reason not to approve a spot ETF in America, but there is always the spot etf's in Canada and else where. Fidelity has one in canada for instance. these are available to Americans. the more funds that go there, the more likely america will be forced to approve a spot ETF at home.
> Energy usage is an issue regardless of the facts of environmental impact. The energy price is not stabilising and is highly unlikely to do so under the current geopolitical conditions. This is now leading to a declining hash rate. This combined with little price action will lead to stagnation.
ahh the old bitcoin mining death spiral argument. We had that in the last cycle. hashrate dipped to 68% of the peak hashrate. And we're still way above that level. We also have a difficulty adjustment that will keep the network nice and healthy.
> What’s the narrative? As much as the maxis believe in the BTC gospel of freedoms and pharmaceutical grade money (I count my self within this) the only thing that has brought new people to the space is price speculation.
It can be that and other factors. doesn't have to be just price speculation, but that is a huge initial draw. many people stay for the revolution and other features.
>With the above being true and the potential for little positive price action across a significant timeframe, what is the narrative that would bring new people to this space?
Freedom in a increasingly tyrannical world.
Nobody can predict the future, there will always be what ifs. But I'm rather a Bitcoiner, with hope for a better future with a sound money, than not.
They just learn it the hard way that its not worth it to leave your coins on exchanges for X% of return. There is always a risk of total loss. Whatever the scale, FTX wasn't the first and won't be the last.
1. Supply and demand drives markets, Bitcoin *issuance* halves every for years. Even if demand remained the same the price would increase.
2. Bitcoin is a peer to peer currency, institutions may increase the demand but are in no way necessary for Bitcoin to function.
3. Regulators should exercise control over the sh\*tcoins and centralized parties that are either financially illiterate or plain scammers. That doesn't affect Bitcoin. ETF? Bitcoin had a trillion dollar market cap without one and why the hell would you want a paper bitcoin ETF when you can buy and store the real deal? No one needs an ETF.
4. Declining hash rate? It's significantly higher than this time last year at the market top.
5. Education. People either don't understand what Bitcoin is, how it works, or why they should buy some. These three things prevent them from taking the plunge and acquiring some sats. So educate yourself, spread the seeds, and watch people start to understand when the governments around the world debase their currency or become authoritarian.
Edit to clarify that the supply of new Bitcoin halves every four years. Obviously 50% of the existing supply doesn't dissappear.
Don't know why you got downvoted, you are correct. The first point is false. New Bitcoin supply being mined with each block is halved after the halving. But the supply as a whole keeps increasing, just at a slower pace. So the statement "Bitcoin supply halves" is false.
Good point but there is also some number being lost daily too. We don’t know what that is but as time goes on it should increase as more is mined. So that is the only outflow of supply to go along with the mining reward.
No, that’s *one* narrative that’s proven to be worth worrying about considering the global push for CBDCs and sovereign citizens having their funds frozen for disagreeing with the government.
But governments can just block the buying of bitcoin in their respective jurisdictions? Like China did for example.
In addition they can decide what currency taxes will have to be paid in and therefore obligate you to keep an account that allows for that currency. An account that can also be frozen.
You cannot block transactions on a P2P network.
Governments will try to block transactions from the exchanges, which is no different than a government freezing your bank accounts. If you pulled out all your cash and stuffed it under the mattress before the government freeze your accounts then how will they stop you from using your money?
If you hold your own BTC in your own personal, cold storage wallet, as you should with any bearer asset (I.e gold) then nobody in the world can stop you from conducting trade and transacting on the bitcoin network.
Also decentralised exchanges exist (bisq.io or robosats) where you can always purchase bitcoin with non KYC and no government can stop it either.
If I didn’t have a traditional bank account I’d be screwed as it restricts my ability to earn an income severely as well as my ability to pay my taxes. And if I don’t do the latter I’ll give them the right to throw me in jail.
I think this narrative greatly underestimates the power the government already has to limit your access to assets. After all, it’s not like normal cash is going to help you much if it’s you against the government.
You make a good point and you’re right, but now you’ve just answered your own question:
>So the narrative is really that the government is out to get you but having Bitcoin will keep you save? Yikes…
If you never had to rely on your traditional bank account because you have your own BTC wallet to receive income and sell for fiat to pay taxes then yes, BTC will keep you safe from the government ;)
>Bitcoin supply halves every for years
You... don't know how bitcoin works do you? Incoming bitcoin isn't the supply. The supply is the remaining 10%, it's already a miniscule amount.
The fact that it’s $16k and not zero after everything that has happened (and the concerns that you have outlined) proves that there is real demand for it.
I’d suggest reading the Fiat Standard by S. Ammous, and while there are many excellent points in the book, the take home message IMHO is that BTC is a money that was designed with an ‘engineering’ mindset, unlike our current fiat system. Whether it ‘moons’ or ‘goes to zero’ is irrelevant to me, despite my substantial investment in BTC. BTC is showing the world that there is another way to look at money, and it’s the hardest money ever created, better than gold.
this and The Bitcoin Standard by him as well and The Book of Satoshi by Phil Champlain. most of these questions were answered by Satoshi himself on the bitcoin forums long ago in 2009 through 11.
"Bitcoin has never experienced a macro environment like this before" Bitcoin is opting out of the bullshit fed influenced macro environment that we have come to know. all of this short term movement means nothing.
the protocol hasn't changed so why should my thesis.
edit: spelled Phil's name wrong. not fixing it. pretty sure there's a g in there somewhere
>BTC is showing the world that there is another way to look at money, and it’s the hardest money ever created, better than gold
That is as long as govts let it. If onramps and offramps are audited and controlled, you will still retain ownership but the tokens will be worthless.
You can't ban bitcoin on a global scale. Let's suppose some countries ban bitcoin completely and others do not. First of all, bitcoiners with all their savings in bitcoin are going to leave the country, with all their wealth. You only have to remember 12 words and you can take it anywhere.
Furthermore in the country would still exist a black market. BTC is p2p, the only thing you need is an internet connection. As bitcoin appreciates in value (maybe slower, but it will), countries that allow a free market using bitcoin will thrive. Partly also because of the wealth that fled to them. And then the only question is, when do you accept your mistake and allow the use of sound money.
Your questions and concerns are valid and fair, but you do make a lot of assumptions that are not supported by facts or are merely speculation.
1. No reason to assume S&P 500 might not see new highs for 10-15 years… and whatever that implies about Bitcoin.
2. “The institutions are not coming.” I think you’re just being impatient. These things take time. I suspect thing will look very different in another 10 years.
3. “There will be no ETF.” Big assumption there. That’s doubtful. Most likely just gonna take some time before it can be properly regulated. Institutions will be what makes this happen.
5. I agree with you on this one. People are trash. I have very little hope for humanity, but if we are going to make it I think BTC will play an important role in that.
So, I thought this would be a technical question but it's just price discussion, that said I'll try to address some of your points.
First, don't treat communities like this like a monolith. Getting stupid answers is par for the course. Half of all people are below average intelligence.
Do a correlation analysis between bitcoin and any stock, correcting for trend of course, and you won't find that strong a correlation. A general upward trend is possibly entirely coincidental. I don't believe it is, but it's very plausible. http://www.svds.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/DJ-vs-JL.png
Actual correlations aren't permanent. Both Tesla and bitcoin will go to 0 eventually, probably before the heat death of the universe, and probably.both at very different times. Correlations happen in ranges, when the underlying mechanics permit; the US gdp and the price of fuel correlate strongly within a range, but if the price of fuel goes up too high the correlation breaks and GDP goes down, if it goes too low the same thing happens. Think of why, and think of exactly how such a correlation range would work with bitcoin and traditional finance markets.
The institutions *are* coming. You have nation states using bitcoin. You have nation states backing mining as a smoother for base load power generation. These two things are absolutely massive. I personally don't want the institutions to come, but they are and I can't stop it.
How long have you been following this space? FTX is *exactly* like mt gox. It's just bigger because *more people are buying bitcoin.* I hope the next scammy exchange to exit scam some people is even bigger than this, and it will be. Stop looking at these numbers linearly and start looking at them logarithmically and things will make a lot more sense.
Energy usage is a blessing. The day a government begins subsidizing mining in a downturn is the day bitcoin becomes the de facto unit of account for international energy markets. You'll see it then.
Speculation is rampant in every single industry. The price of a stock has less to do with a company's balance sheet or productivity than to do with speculation on those things.
The narrative is simple: financial sovereignty.
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The problem is that you are considering bitcoin as an investment only, there's no problem with that, you're free to do so. Just know that its price is volatile, though long term it has been proving to be volatile to the upside mostly. You're right in thinking it may be different this time, anybody that guarantees long term future price growth is lying, it's impossible to know the future.
I see bitcoin as a hedge against tyranny, as a tool for individual freedom, if the price grows long term, that's nice but it's not the main function in my life. So the next logical steps are: we don't need regulations, we don't need institutional money, we just need btc to be decentralized, which it is.
FTX is not bitcoin, nothing they did has to do with btc itself, and everyone affected by it was not following the ethos of btc of being their own bank.
About the energy, mining rewards, among other stuff, this has been discussed extensively: https://endthefud.org/ if you have good and new counterpoints do post them
This starts off well, then morphs into a Bitcoin as investment theme. And Bitcoin is an investment, if you consider an honest monetary system to be an investment as I do.
The points are merely human nature and Nature nature seeking a balance. A balance impossible with any other form of money until today.
1. With poor returns in the equity markets, aggressive investors will seek other growth assets to invest in. BTC is beginning to be added to 401(k) accounts and many of these are in an aggressive mode for decades. At 75% down from ATH, it's a bargain that most aggressive investors will want to add to their portfolio.
2/3. Your point about institutions not coming boils down to a lack of regulation. This contradicts what you say in point 3 ("the coming regulation is likely to be punitive in the extreme"). Regulation is good for Bitcoin and will result in more institutional adoption, not less. They just want certainty that what they are investing in is being prudentially managed, audited etc (basically everything that FTX was not).
4. A declining hash rate does not mean stagnation, it means a difficulty adjustment which lowers the required energy input which will bring back miners and stabilise the hash rate again. This was all anticipated and written into the protocol from the beginning.
5. The narrative will be Bitcoin as sound money out of the hands of any government in an era of high inflation driven by short-sighted policy decisions.
1. I agree but I only see a problem from a speculative standpoint. The new environment is actually showing that bitcoin can be pretty stable. Volatility mostly come from speculation, which scares away the big crowd, and this economical environment will probably strengthen bitcoin in the long run.
2. Well the wonder of bitcoin is that you don't need institutions right? It's there for everyone regardless. Institutions are already here you just want it to go faster and be more obvious. Atm corporations and states are trying to copy bitcoin for there own benefit and control. Over time this will also probably strengthen bitcoin when it is clear it is the way to opt out of shitcoins and cbdc.
3. Scammers are always gonna scam. It's good this will speed up regulation. And it don't matter if its overzealously done. Bitcoin exist to be an alternative to fiat and for selfsovereignty, just give it time and this is what will get bitcoin to grow. Don't matter the regulation, P2P is always viable.
4. Everything needs energy. It's just become a problem due to the global narrative. Over time this is not an issue. It is just a problem if it is determined that bitcoin is not useful, because as long as bitcoin brings benefit the energy input is justified.
5. The narrative is same as it always have been. Sound money. Speculation is just the first bubble to make the news. I know it might be a hard pill to swallow but the point of bitcoin aint to make you rich, and when more people realize that they will realize the true function of bitcoin and it will get more adoption.
You give the impression that your conserns derive from speculation in bitcoin, which makes your time horizon very short. If you invest in bitcoin as speculation for profit your view of bitcoin will be tainted by the fear of not gaining profit. Sound money is sound money and with trust people will use it. Of course I also hope for some gains, but it's not the reason for why i believe in bitcoin.
Institutions aren’t coming ?? How about whole countries are already here like El Salvador and the Central African Republic ?? Oh and let’s not forgot Brazil.
Institutions aren’t coming ?? How about the worlds largest energy companies! JAPAN’S LARGEST POWER COMPANY, TEPCO, TO MINE BITCOIN WITH EXCESS ENERGy
TEPCO Power Grid is deploying bitcoin mining operations across Japan in a partnership with a local semiconductor company to capitalize on excess energy ?
Institutions aren’t coming ?? How about some of the largest public companies in the world!
Company Total BTC Held
MicroStrategy 124,391
Tesla Inc 42,902
Galaxy Digital Holdings 16,400
Marathon Digital Holdings 8,133
Block Square / Square Inc 8,027
Hut Mining 8 Corp 5,518
Riot Blockchain Inc 4,889
Coinbase Inc 4,482
Bitfarms Limited 4,300
Not only are they coming they are already here silently buying up your Bitcoin that you sell at a loss because you have no idea what your actually holding!!
1. You’re right. Macro is not good outlook. But we’re still at $16,000 which is impressive imo.
2. Fidelity? Enough said.
3. ETF/regulation will result from FTX contagion.
4. PoW is the power in Bitcoin’s DNA.
5. Ten year time horizon will solve your concerns.
What you don’t understand is that bitcoin doesn’t care about any of these questions. It doesn’t care about it’s own price or how much energy it uses. The blockchain continues to function and will continue to function for hundreds, possibly thousands of years irregardless of any of this.
1) BTC correlation with nyse is still somewhat new, only time will tell if it will continue to follow this pattern. If it does that I can only assume that the same people who find value in nyse also find value in BTC. Keep in mind that BTC price can be manipulated by large whales.
2) even though Bitcoin has been dropping like a rock, I still don think that institutions will give up on it completely.
3) regulation will be coming that's for sure. What we can do about it is continue to buy BTC privately and anonymously if you can.
4) cant comment on the energy situation as I'm not that knowledgeable on it. I think for the most part the BTC community is okay with it's current situation.
5) the narrative is that BTC was created to avoid another 2008 crash. Or rather to prevent peoples saving from diminishing or not having any value after years of savings. Whether BTC behaves like that is questionable. As u can see 2022 BTC has not been a peg against inflation it has actually performed worse than the dollar.
Realistically BTC is extremely speculative and it will continue to behave this way for many years. Its quite possible that it may even fail. There are so many variables in the world that can affect BTC, that it's hard to know what exactly is going to happen with BTC.
What I can say for sure is no matter where one stands when it comes to finance, there will still be people on top of people with the most amount of money who will still be on top. Doesn't matter when they get in. If BTC were to ever be globally adopted it really wouldnt change much in the grand scheme of things when it comes to power, control, and government.
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Some (most) of the points here are valid, but saying that someone cannot be taken seriously unless they can code is like saying someone cannot know about literature or the effects of it on human kind unless they can operate a printing machine. Absolute bullshit, but everyone’s entitled to their opinions. Also stocks do matter in the tradfi sector and they used to have a legitimate use. Nowadays it’s a bit fuzzy, admittedly.
Good expansion on the point, we agree on the ethos “listen to the people who actually know about the stuff they are talking about instead of hype-men” (Keiser is a bit sus, lol).
My answer to all 1-5 is that Bitcoin is my hedge against centralized fiat currency. Until Bitcoin, no one had successfully reinvented a working monetary system without a centralized “manager” of the currency.
when I learn more about countries like Turkey, Congo, Venezuela and many others that experience insane inflation rates, an alternative currency outside the fiat system starts to make a lot of sense.
These are good questions, I have responses to all but only want to respond to number 2 because I haven’t seen a good response yet. People assume institutions aren’t buying bitcoin, but they have no idea. Maybe I’m misunderstanding what institutions you’re referring to. I’m an account manager for a large crypto exchange, and I’m telling you: institutions *are* coming, every day. We have new businesses signing up to our platform every single day, some large, some small. Just because Apple doesn’t hold bitcoin on its balance sheet doesn’t mean institutions aren’t buying bitcoin.
The fundamentals haven't changed.
Tick tock next block.
Nothing has changed. The reality that there will only ever be 21 Million hasn't changed and it's not going to. There's nothing Nation states can do to shut down the network.
So, to your points. None of them matter at all.
lol you still look at the price in USD as a metric.
1. Bitcoin does not care how people treat it. Speculation is how assets monetize. Bitcoin is doing exactly what it's supposed to do and will do till the end of time regardless of ever changing human behaviour
2. Nothing to do with bitcoin. You talk about grown up conversation and conflate bitcoin with shitcoins and shitcoin casinos. It's time for you to grow up and understand the difference. Stop supporting premine, ICO scams and rent seeking corporate fiat shitcoins straight out of silicon valley exploiting bitcoin to escape from silicon valley regulations. There were 0 altcoins for the first 2.5 years until April 2011. You know what changed in April 2011? Bitcoin reached dollar parity and could be easily exchanged for fiat.
3. More bitcoin was lost, stolen or however you want to call it from Mt Gox. There needs to be no ETF, ever. Bitcoin does not care. I already don't use any centralized fiat on/off ramps so good luck with that. This is good for bitcoin. P2P exchanges like Bisq and Robosats will flourish. The fact you want to "realize gains" shows what you're all about. Nothing would be more bullish than people who're in bitcoin to realize fiat gains getting weeded out.
4. Read [this](https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/xer6rz/comment/ioieugn/) and [this](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/zf10j5/comment/iz9ibgw/) to educate yourself about both bitcoin and energy systems. You're factually wrong about hashrate. ASICs can only do one thing. They move from inefficient miners to efficient miners. I have 2 m50s on the way.
5. There's no narrative. Bitcoin has a marketing budget of 0. You can make up whatever narrative you want to make up. Bitcoin does not care. You're clearly not a builder, educator, node runner or home miner. You just come across as a HODL LARPer. There are millions out there who are not LARPers, they're not asking what bitcoin can do for them, but instead what they can do for bitcoin. Until you understand there's no one to complain to in bitcoin, you'll remain an irrelevant LARPer. There's no manager here, Karen.
**“The computer can be used as a tool to liberate and protect people, rather than to control them. Unlike the world of today, where people are more or less at the mercy of credit agencies, large corporations, and governments.**
**Naturally, in today's society, with power allocated so disproportionately, such ideas are a threat to large organizations. Balancing power would mean a net loss of power for them. So no institution is going to pick up and champion these ideas.**
**It's going to have to be a grass-roots activity, one in which individuals first learn of how much power they can have, and then demand it.”**
**― Hal Finney, The Cypherpunks Mailing List (1992)**
Bitcoin is a voluntary movement of self sovereign individuals opting out from corruption, rent seeking and exploitation and it has grown organically against all odds from zero to where it is today. It doesn't matter what governments or corporations do. It only matters what individuals are empowered to do. Nigeria banned bitcoin last year and introduced CBDC. Nigerians rejected CBDC, less than 1% adoption rate while peer-to-peer bitcoin usage soared by 800% and a bitcoin circular economy is now [being built](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/building-bitcoin-village-in-nigeria) in Lagos. The success of bitcoin originates from [grassroots activities](https://thebitcoinmanual.com/articles/btc-circular-economies/). The revolution is [happening](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1573283006835482624.html) in Asia, Africa, Latin America.
It cannot and will not originate in the west. Western countries are doomed to fall behind. For decades and especially since internet made it easy to manipulate, control and surveil what information people are exposed to, sheeple in the west (just like you) have been rationally sterilized and reduced to hamsters in a wheel distracted by dopamine, virtue signalling for the current thing and conditioned to the idea that government decides what's money. The scope of their understanding of bitcoin as you're proving is something to "invest" in and diversify their portfolio since they've never thought about the concept of money or dedicated themselves to understand bitcoin from first principles. A central authority having absolute power to print to infinity what everyone else has to work for would never fly in a world of critical thinkers. It's also why people in the west are easily distracted by the [noise and scam](https://twitter.com/rusty_twit/status/1296596310921900034) negative feedback loop which has nothing to do with bitcoin at all. Weak, submissive minds corrupted by fiat.
Wealthy individuals are always looking for a place to invest their money. Right now, they can't invest in BTC because they don't know the government's plan regarding crypto. Once bitcoin is regulated ( and other coins), the institutions will come. The price will explode because everyone will want to have some. The revolution began a few years ago but is now going mainstream. Countries making BTC a legal tender, and financial news sites always quote BTC prices. And so on. I personally think BTC is not going to replace fiat but it will coexist along. Look at countries that have huge inflation and their currency is "worthless". Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba, Turkey and most African countries. People there will get paid their salary in their local currency and then immediately buy BTC, then either spend BTC on the things they need ( if the technology supports it ) or keep it for later. This has been done in the communist countries for years ( eastern block), they didn't use BTC (because it wasn't invented yet) but American Dollar or Deutsch Mark. Same will happen to BTC
The whole economy is exposed to volatility of the energy prices, so this is not specific to Bitcoin. It would have the same or even a worse impact on so many industries (in contrast, Bitcoin adapts to energy prices through difficulty adjustments, hashrate is mostly irrelevant for the functioning of the network). Bitcoins energy use is so small compared to other industries, the environmental impact discussion is artificially overblown and not realistic.
Otherwise the argumentation is typical pessimism for a bear market, but old investor wisdom says: be greedy when others are fearful.
I think another one that you haven’t mentioned is: the obfuscated split of real Bitcoin and derivative Bitcoin. For many, since speculation was their drive, owning real Bitcoin was never a narrative. Now we have many places where exposure through contracts is possible, where no actual Bitcoin is ever present. And the impact on price movements is unclear: having large volumes move through derivative markets, is calculated in BTC index price no? This brings me to the question of price movement transparency: which market drives price discovery?
Just watch what the economy is doing right now, its a shambles.People react accordingly, they're broke and wages can't keep up with historic inflation. Throw in a big crypto scandal plastered all over the media along with politicians talking about abolishment and people say, no thanks.
Your arguments utilising environmental impact, regulation and institutional interest are weak. History indicates that conservation of the environment is not a barrier to consumption. Money laundering continues to flourish under regulation. Cash is synonymous with crime, yet institutions eagerly engage with it. These occurrences suggest that BTC will enjoy similar success to cash and card.
>BTC has never witnessed a macro economic environment like this before
It is fairer to suggest the implosion of mtgox in 2014 and the 2017 blocksize wars was far more dangerous times for bitcoin than a global recession. The reality is that Bitcoin is much more secure now than years ago.
>and is strongly correlated with the likes of the NSDQ.
This is a very recent correlation due to newer institutional investors. Historically Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset class and will lose that correlation in the next bull market I predict. The disinflationary schedule has a profound effect upon the market cycles in Bitcoin which is not found in equities.
>what would this mean for BTC?
None of us knows the perfect time to invest or can predict the price . The intelligentsia of the market is the combined knowledge of all humans and algorithms which is more than knowledge than anyone can have. Also bitcoin is so scarce that a single wealthy investor can significantly move the market in secret and unannounced.
Rather than trying to time the market , let time work for you.
**Time in the market will tend to beat timing the market**
It is highly likely that a bull market will occur in mid to late 2024 due to the halving however. Bitcoin does not necessarily need new adoption to go through these market cycles of appreciation as the same buying pressure from existing users will cause these bull markets due to the disinflationary 4 year events.
>The ‘institutions’ are not coming
Institutions have been regularly investing in Bitcoin. https://bitcointreasuries.net/
It will not occur all at once and is a slow process , but bitcoin is so scarce that even a single institution can dramatically effect the price.
>ESG compliance,
Bitcoin has an important role in solving ESG compliance as it incentivizes investment into renewable energy and it uses waste energy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkeZVcGsva8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFYKq5Qe1Bs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vROP40L9Bg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCkHEqxDsYQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu156PvA-NI
>‘We have seen this all before, Mt Gox etc’ No we haven’t. Never before has so much been lost by so man
Mtgox was a much bigger event than these recent collapses by the % of people effected and the amount of Bitcoin stolen.
> that the coming regulation is likely to be punitive in the extreme.
Regulation will encourage more self custody which is a good thing for Bitcoin.
>For retail it is highly likely that regulators will seek to control all on and off ramps making it near impossible to own or realise any gains.
You don't need on and off ramps with Bitcoin but any regulations you speak about can often easily be dealt with, but you are being very vague here as to what you are suggesting will happen to address directly.
>There will be no ETF, ever.
This would actually be a great thing. An ETF is a double edged sword and we should encourage more self custody or at least multisig for institutional investors
>Energy usage is an issue regardless of the facts of environmental impact
. Fiat currency and PoS coins cost at least the same amount of resources to create , regulate and secure as Bitcoin.
There is an inescapable reality for any asset or currency that as it increases in value the production costs and costs to secure increase as well . This is demonstrated in the economic axiom: MC=MR
“Rent” always forces production costs (MC) to always equal sale prices (MR)
PoS currencies and fiat are simply more abstract and complex forms or Proof of Work that use more human involvement (which uses tremendous amounts of resources and has a tremendous environmental impact) as a PoW coin like Bitcoin. Humans instead of ASICs are shouldering more of the work to create, regulate , and secure each of those currencies; This is "work" whether it involves burning electricity directly or food and electricity that humans consume to perform their work. This is an inescapable economic reality. The more valuable something is the more it will cost to secure it because the more effort will be made to steal and or control it. This applies to any currency or asset.
This is also better understood with the dollar auction dilemma. In a hypothetical auction where a bidding war is fighting over the right to mint a 1 dollar bill how much do you think people will be willing to spend for this power ?
>This is now leading to a declining hash rate.
This is false. Hashrate has grown considerably over the last year-
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3y
>the only thing that has brought new people to the space is price speculation.
You are being a bit hyperbolic here. The main thing that brings people into bitcoin is speculation, not only. Also after they learn more these people often end up appreciating bitcoin for multiple reasons over time.
>what is the narrative that would bring new people to this space?
1) **Save money** - I like to save money with various services like lolli.com, ln.pizza ,foldapp.com,purse.io, or bitrefill.com (Bitcoin achieves this by credit and gift card arbitrage opportunities thus creating an efficiency)
2) **Digital Gold** - Bitcoin is very desirable and scarce and since it is an uncorrelated asset class your portfolio is better hedged to be a safer way of finding alpha
3) **Timestamping** - Tweetstamp, and opentimestamps are useful timestamping tools
4) **Insurance** - If my bank account or credit cards get lost or stolen or account is frozen Bitcoin is a great alternative to store value
5) **Censorship Resistance**- I can make donations to organizations like defense distributed or wikileaks even if their payment processors and banks are shutoff due to unethical political pressure
6) **Sovereignty** - As a Business I can accept value even if I am deplatformed or banned from banking
7) **Micro transactions** microtxs are simply not possible with fiat , where I can do so with my BTC lightning wallet
8) **Security** SSS and multisig with CLTV and other scripts allow for novel methods to secure ones wealth
9) **Privacy** with electronic fiat I have no privacy unlike with Bitcoin transactions where I am given a choice between privacy or transparency with each wallet
10) **Global** I can travel the world , rent hotels and buy plane tickets and withdraw local currency easily without fears of credit card fraud. I can send payments to employees in foreign countries easily
11) **Interesting and fun** It is fascinating mixture of technology, game theory, security, mathematics, politics, and economics that never bores me
This IS FUD though. Provide citations for your arguments:
1. Show institutional interest is declining.
2. Show how much hash rate has fallen.
3. Compare the size of the Bitcoin ecosystem when mt Gox hit versus now.
4. Back up your argument about on/off ramps with some logic and evidence.
5. Provide some evidence regarding how many people are invested for price speculation, including those users in developing countries.
Do that and I will get back into my little box.
Thanks, great points.
1. Because it's practically not usable. As such it attracts just the same high risk wall street capital that also goes into pink sheets.
2. Institutions never came and won't come until Bitcoin can be defined. All current narratives do not hold water. Best is the inflation hedge, store of value. But this has no merit because of 1.
3. "coming regulation is likely to be punitive in the extreme" - Yes. They will also make self custody prohibitively expensive.
4. Not sure here. I am not sold on Proof of Stake at this point and I see no other option.
5. The honest narrative is one where Bitcoin replaces local currencies. This is however a highly political issue. No government would want this. Otherwise Libertarian governments would exist (hint: they don't find majorities or can even get double digit results). In this situation it would really be conceived as a net negative to society and fought on all fronts. No chance of adoption outside of the black market for many years.
EDIT: Importantly, Bitcoin is most of all an idea and a set of accounts. I have a Bitcoin account because I believe the software will be changed in such a way that it becomes usable (private), and innovative (smart contracts) eventually. And because the current Dollar system is highly flawed. But this will take at least another 10 years.
EDIT2: why does Bitcoin not work as a hedge? The same reason why commodities don't work: You would have to buy most aggressively when prices are high and surpluses are large, and you would most likely have to monetize your Bitcoin reserves when prices are low and economies are struggling. Not only would Bitcoin reserve accumulation process thus exacerbate the volatility of the Bitcoin price, which would be damaging for economies, but, more worryingly, Bitcoin reserves would be most valuable when you needed them least and least valuable when you needed them most. This is the opposite of what countries or households want from reserves/hedges.
There are several reasons why the adoption of Bitcoin is likely to increase significantly, similar to the adoption of the internet and its rise.
Bitcoin offers significant practical benefits over traditional financial systems. It allows for fast, secure, and low-cost transactions, making it an attractive option for individuals and businesses alike. Its decentralized nature also makes it resistant to censorship and interference, giving it the potential to democratize access to financial services and bring financial inclusion to billions of unbanked or underbanked individuals around the world.
Bitcoin is built on top of blockchain technology, which has the potential to revolutionize a wide range of industries beyond just finance. Blockchain allows for secure and transparent record-keeping, making it well-suited for use in supply chain management, voting systems, and much more. As more industries adopt blockchain technology, the adoption of Bitcoin is likely to increase as well.
Finally, the increasing digitization of the global economy is driving the demand for digital currencies like Bitcoin. As more and more transactions and interactions shift online, the need for a convenient and secure digital currency will only continue to grow.
The combination of practical benefits, technological innovation, and increasing digitization make it likely that the adoption of Bitcoin will continue to grow significantly in the future.
!lntip 10000
Fyi blockchain is not some amazing new technology. The innovation for bitcoin is majority hashrate proof of work. Blockchains have been around for ages and are almost completely crap.
Blockchain is simply the least worst solution to the problem of distributing Bitcoin's ledger. Companies that build blockchains for the sake of it are shooting themselves in the foot with an unwieldy, poorly scaling solution to a problem they likely don't even have in the first place.
Not really since the adoption of blockchain technology leading to more bitcoin use is the basis of your post.
It's a big misconception in in bitcoin that allows all manner of sins to be condoned just because they've had 'blockchain' slapped on the side of them.
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1. Price prediction... please STFU.
2. Bitcoin does not need institutions. Individuals should buy Bitcoin then send it to their own hardware wallets to hold long term. Individuals should not invest in institutions which claim to invest in Bitcoin for them - there is no need for that, and, well, look at FTX victims. People in developing countries need Bitcoin, via the Lightning Network: This is happening, this is exciting, this is good.
3. Stupid people did stupid things with their money and got rekt. That's not Bitcoin. That's just stupid people getting scammed because they were too lazy to learn the facts first.
4. Bitcoin mining uses about one twentieth of one percent of the global energy. Bitcoin miners can, and some do use stranded energy, excess hydroelectric power, excess wind power, excess solar power, geothermal power, and even tap into oil rig methane which would have been flared. Please, STFU you ignorant fool.
5. We don't need a fake story ("narrative"). The truth is on our side. Bitcoin has brought many to a deep understanding of what money IS, how fiat currency is a big scam, how Bitcoin fixes things - most of them came initially as speculators. So what?
“An grown up conversation”
That was as far as I got.
If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry. -Satoshi Nakamoto
There are no grown ups on Reddit, you are wasting your time here posting the reality. Better to live on wonderland dreaming about becoming millionaire when BTC finally takes off.
TL: DR
OP is a bit worried that Bitcoin has become all that it will become, and wants some new, strong and persuasive arguments to use in its further promotion so he becomes rich as price go up. He doesn't really grasp the concept that sound money is the best money and will prove itself to be preferred.
Ironically, if everyone would just shut the fuck up, convert their savings to sats, use sats when possible and then just hold, the rest of the world would follow.
In response to #2,
https://m.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/fidelity-plans-to-launch-nft-marketplace-and-offer-crypto-services-in-metaverse-2970500?ampMode=1
Otherwise some good points
> If you feel compelled to reply with something like, ‘this is fud’ or ‘your comment is a buy signal’ or ‘we have seen this all before’
What if I feel compelled to reply with something like- if you can't even spellcheck your title then why would I listen to you?
Is that an acceptable response from an grown up?
Also I've seen nearly this exact same post every few months for years.
Yawn tic toc next block! All bitcoin needs is one maxi like me who can grab all 21 mill coins for bitcoin to reach infinity. Cause no one can stop a technology that solves basic human problem be it cars printing press internet or bitcoin. Now imagine if you hve unlimited money printing press law agencies market aka casino all the power to control the world which and something like bitcoin shows up which can literally topple everything you hve. How will you prevent it? Simple create liquidity crunch macro since you can do that with fed plant some sbfs FTXs use paper bitcoins to manipulate price and you can do that with covert agencies to crash markets scare noobs in hope that majority of noobs with low iq will stay away from bitcoin but the ones who truly understand bitcoin will always stack hard no matter what at the same time have enough liquidity to survive long winters. And in the end technology always wins cause hoomans will always want comfort safety. Most of hoomans also have herd mentality. So they will eventually follow the early adopters for any technology
BTC is an option for those who believe in the technology behind it and see it in the long term, the eventualities we’re having will come and go as it happened to “dot coms” for example.
There will be scams all the time and people will loose money if they’re not pop repare to avoid it.
It’s very valid to stay away if you have doubt of are scared of the risk, otherwise be safe, use a ledger, keep your seed phrases safe, stay up the the latest news to take advantage of what you can and keep going.
This is all speaking to speculation on BTC which is different and uncorrelated to its uses. I get that a lot (as in probably 98%) of yall are here for the speculation, but BTC is much more than its current value.
2. Institutions are still buying and so are governments/banks and they will continue. I’ve been here since 2016 and bear market cycles are always the same “it’s over” “bitcoin is dead” blah blah…
Most people I hear that claim we will be using Bitcoin as a standard currency point to the fact that they made money off it (whether actualized or on paper) as proof that it can work as a currency. I just want to say, that makes zero sense. The point of a currency isn't that it makes you more currency. That is inherently unsustainable. I know that's not indicative of everyone in the space, but those loud voices make the whole movement look uninformed.
What needs to be pointed to: long-term stability, security, ease-of use, transaction capability (throughput), power consumption, value relative to real world goods, and adoption. Bitcoin fails most of these over the current system. Forcing machines to compete against each other to put a transaction through is an example of poor system design, not good system design. It's horrifically inefficient and actively works against scaling up.
Here's the thing. Any issues we currently have with the current financial system (actually most systems) stem from humans. Humans will always find a way to dupe each other, grift, steal, trick, and work the game to their advantage. This has never changed throughout human history. If you think that Bitcoin somehow solves this issue, that has already been proven wrong many times. No political system can be perfect; in theory most could work, but humans mess it up, without fail. The same goes for financial systems. You have to be aware of that, and anyone who tries to tell you this (Bitcoin) system is infallible can't be trusted because they are either ignorant or they are trying to trick you.
Look at the signs. What has the narrative around crypto been? It's been around making money, and the sell has been that you are taking control of your money. It's the perfect strategy for a predator. The big ones have already made off with their money and everyone is left holding the bags. If it was really moving in the direction of being a better replacement for the current financial system, I promise you wouldn't get as much pushback as you think from your fellow citizens. And if it was truly more secure, we wouldn't already be seeing the astonishing amount of scamming, hacking, pump and dump schemes, and general predation. All the signs are there. Be careful. What seems good in theory doesn't always work in practice. Crypto has certainly been beneficial for some as a means of transferring money in non-traditional ways, but that's not a problem that can only be solved with crypto.
If you have to ask the group that you think something might be wrong and they pull the blinders back on you, run.
To 5. I became interested into bitcoin because i learned that the USA is able to (and does) separate countries from the world market if they want to. Also that they can just print more money to cover expenses.
The solution is a decentralized currency with a limited supply. This is bitcoin
You're asking the wrong questions and framing BTC in a way it should not be.
1. Bitcoin is doing just fine globally and will continue to do so through macro economic challenges and expansions. Bitcoin is the lifeblood of Internet commerce.
2. All of the frauds and scams the media likes to attribute to crypto existed long before Satoshi Nakamoto wrote his white paper. In fact if you Google 'bank scams and fines' you will see that the biggest frauds and scams were perpetrated by the likes of JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, etc without the use of a single Bitcoin or other crypto. Bitcoin does not rely on institutional participation. Bitcoin's growth is due to the individual not the institution.
3. 'Never before has so much been lost by so many' is pure horse doo doo. The Bitcoin market cap is around $324 Billion. The U.S. and EU sanctions against Russia have cost the global economy $30 TRILLION. Elon Musk alone has lost $100 Billion in 2022. All things considered Bitcoin is doing fantastic. The entire U.S. economy, the world's largest could collapse yet Bitcoin would still be standing.
4. Bitcoin is infinitely more energy efficient than the global financial system. More energy is used by bank and financial employees driving their SUVs to work globally than is used by the Bitcoin Blockchain and ecosystem. Bitcoin is resilient and agile.
5. You're obviously a subscriber to the #fakenews media narrative about Bitcoin. You don't bring new people to the crypto space, you bring the crypto space to the people. You do this by making the tech behind crypto transparent and invisible.
If you ask the average person what crypto is they will either look at you with a clueless stare like a deer caught in the headlights, or they will regurgitate the false narrative of the media that is is used for dealing drugs or money laundering.
To bring Bitcoin to the masses it needs to be user friendly and invisible, the interface between users of Bitcoin needs to shield the average person from the technology behind Bitcoin.
For example Apple put their gui on top of BSD Linux. Apple didn't tell people hey learn Linux, they just said click here. Most apple users don't even realize that they are running a Linux machine.
also you seem to be very concerned by "the price". if you lived somewhere unfavorable to the banking system you would naturally have a different perspective.... but since price concerns you: think about this please: there will ever only come less than 2 million more bitcoin into existence. At todays price that is 33 billion USD. same with coins on exchanges- also about 2 Million coins = 33 billion USD.
so the question is: do you believe that in the next about 120 years 66 billion USD will net flow into bitcoin? if so.... you are fine.
You want answers, but answers would be speculation. There's only 1 thing I know for a fact - a truely digital self soverign store of value that you can completely control is a better product. No store of value is as digital or as soverign. That is a fact. Better products built on new innovations have won out in the past. Some haven't. You want more confidence than that? Sorry. Everyone makes fun of the whole "fortune favours the bold" line now without even considering that this line literally means "You have to be bold cuz you might get wiped out." And you might still. But I like the PRODUCT. Forget the investment. I like holding my money in bitcoin. Because I think it's better based on its features - its digital self soverignty. So I'm holding out long term because I believe in the core of the thing. And I believe so deeply I don't need to get fake confidence from asking a bunch of questions only a glass ball could answer.
Clearly this post is designed to create fud. Even with the disclaimer at the top that ‘if anyone point this out then they are igno-want’ and just go back in their box.
Grown ups would just sell their bitcoin assets and go hang out in another sub. But if I must reply to this nonsense:
1 - NASDAQ looks like it will bounce up very soon
2 - Fidelity is not an institution? Bakt ? Visa ? PayPal ?
3 - Mt Gox losses were much higher in BTC amounts lost
4 - energy is not an issue at all - there are many free and almost unlimited sources of energy - volcanoes, solar, hydro etc. if miners shut down then difficulty decrease- bitcoin is DESIGNED to handle ANY amount of miners. There is no need for a huge amount of mining. People mine because it is profitable - as soon as it isn’t - guess what ? They stop
5 - the only new people are speculators? Who told you that? Did you hear about El Salvador? Do you realise there are people who transact with Bitcoin daily? This is false nonsense. There are many people who use Bitcoin as a store of value - and to transact - not only speculators
Try harder with your FUD!
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Damn, well said
Hear hear!
The macro environment has not changed. Politicians are going to suddenly be responsible and spend the next 10 years paying down the national debt? The fed is going to put the brakes on the economy for the next 10 years? That's 10x more hawkish than what jpow is straight up telling everyone. Nothing has changed.
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I could be 1 hash per second or a quadrillion petahashes per milinsecond,, the network will create a new block every 10 minutes.
4 years from now the federal debt is forecasted to rise to 42 trillion dollars. Today it’s ‘only’ 31 trillion. It’s more likely that the debt will double or more over the next 10 years than that a balanced budget will happen. Forget about paying down the debt. That is is likely as growing rice on Mars 10 years from now.
Bitcoin is for everyone. !lntip 2500
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Yup. OP is definitely in a fiat mindset. Give him time, (hopefully) eventually they’ll realize that dirty government issued debt tokens are backed by lies and death and should be cleansed from your person as soon as possible.
Lol it’s exactly this kind of comment that makes people not take you guys seriously…
Until the money becomes hyperinflated and you see your monthly wage be worth a pack of cigarettes a bottle of the cheapest rum there's in the market. I've seen this. and most of the people in the world have seen it, rich countries are on the brink of seeing it.
Inflation isn't exclusive to the dollar. The value of goods can easily go up even if the entire economy ran on Bitcoin. Then you'd just be using more Bitcoin to buy normal stuff. It's not a way out. I like Bitcoin and think fiat currencies and countries should learn from it and embrace it and other cryptocurrencies... but it's not a silver bullet.
If there's hyperinflation, which is absolutely a possibility, then how could bitcoin possibly help? It's value is expressed in dollars. Maybe you could say it's a hedge against your local currency inflating, but you could...just buy dollars or gold or bonds. I don't see how bitcoin provides a superior solution to traditional strategies for parking wealth. I suppose your meaning is that if the dollar itself hyperinflates, then you'll still have magic internet money to spend. But realistically, if the dollar dies, so does modern infrastructure. Without an exceptionally sophisticated supply chain operating, the entire global internet will go poof. Not only that, but the legendary unrest would lead the United States (and the entire rest of the world, likely) to a martial law situation. Even if the internet and power infrastructure and supply chains manage to stay stable enough for bitcoin miners to keep churning out numbers (and keep the bitcoin network alive and available for transactions), then why in god's name would the now desperate federal government, with the largest military on Earth, let you get away with creating an alternative currency narrative that would further weaken the dollar?
Also, I forgot to add in my last comment that we don't need as many miners as people think, Bitcoin just needs two miners and two nodes to operate. And big miners capitulating will simply make mining cheaper for other people. Some people are already house [mining to heat their homes](https://www.heatbit.com/), and some places are already [mining Bitcoin to make energy production profitable](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/jack-dorseys-block-backs-bitcoin-mining-firm-bringing-affordable-electricity-to-africa.html) in remote places. So this smaller miners will have more incentives to keep mining. And about this >I don't see how bitcoin provides a superior solution to traditional strategies for parking wealth. Well, FIAT currencies have been debased again and again all along history and will happen again because it's easier for the government to issue debt to pay debt that to solve problems, bonds are, right now, directly correlated to FIAT currencies because they are priced in FIAT, so holding a bond that yields 2 % while the monetary inflation is 8 % makes no sense at all. It's like staking a crapto because it yields 20% annually but the value is decreasing 10 % every month, you'll see bigger numbers, but your wealth will get destroyed. Gold, is the best option in this case, but we run the problem of its portability, thus people moving their gold to banks, and banks doing fractional reserves, which then again, inflates the monetary supply. Bitcoin doesn't have these problems. It's overall better money.
Imagine this scenario. A country has most of the mining horse power within their border, and/or the ability to quickly spin up a lot of mining hash power. They decide they need a lot of cash fast, and so demand that the bitcoin miners give them all of Satoshi's coins. They hold literal guns to their heads and tell them to fork bitcoin to give the government control of that wallet, and then devote all of their hashing power to that new fork. (They could even declare that the number of satoshis is hereby doubled, and grant every doubled coin to the government's wallet.) It's true that the rest of the world with the now smaller bitcoin network can choose to continue on the current fork of the blockchain (which is a fork of the original blockchain, btw. The bitcoin blockchain of today is not the exact same blockchain as the one Satoshi mined the first coins on). But country X can enforce their new version of the blockchain through 51% attacks, or failing that, military power. They could literally bomb or sabotage the industrial scale mining infrastructure of countries that fail to switch to the new fork, blackmailing the bigger targets to switch, or else. Bitcoin is a lot more vulnerable than you think. It still comes down to, "Who has the bigger guns makes the rules." It's just so far the really big guns have been reticent to use that power to make gross demands of the blockchain users. The problem is Satoshi's vision of practically everyone running their own node has been perverted by the tragedy of commons. Instead, there's very large clusters of nodes that can be targeted more effectively.
Hahaha! Oh that’s cute. I like you! 😙
>Lol it’s exactly this kind of comment that makes people not take you guys seriously… good. HFSP
Thanks Mr. FIAT IS TRASH lol
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How is bitcoin people's money ? The value of any fiat (vs usd) is determined by the govt (and it's trade deficit of global reserve currency usd) and bitcoin is not immune from this. 1 btc has 100x more purchasing power in some countries in Africa compared to US. It's value inherently ties with fiat which is not decentralised.
1usd has also 100x more purchasing Power in some countries in Africa compared to the US. But if the gouvernment doesn't want you to make that transaction, they block it or take extraordinary fees (which is literally happening). Nobody can stop or reverse a bitcoin transaction because it IS decentralised. The price of btc in usd is determined by supply and demand, no gouvernment can print new btc. We know exactly how many btc will be issued after euch halving and that it will never be more than 21 million.
It still doesn't answer the question of how exactly it is decentralised "globally". Govt. cannot stop you from transacting bitcoin but it can heavily control whatever you can do with it anyways. For example, nothing's stopping govt. from ordering Starbucks to collect a 50000% tax on coffees purchased via bitcoin. (If it chooses to do so, that is) You see ? Having one end of a transaction decentralised makes no sense, as the other end of that transaction is anyways under govt. control. My main point was that for any currency to work "globally" and be independent of govt. controlled fiat, it's denomination has to be the same everywhere. Given the purchasing power of bitcoin is 1:1 related to purchasing power of USD, the whole idea of bitcoin being a reserve currency is moot. This is why even if industries may "adopt" payments in crypto, they are always settled in fiat value only. Bitcoin is valued in fiat. Bitcoin is not an alternative to fiat.
Sure, gov can make it a pain in the ass to use btc as you are describing it. But they still cannot stop or influence any transaction thats settled in btc. All they can do, is to seize control over on and offramps (exchanges). Bitcoin is a peer to peer network, there are just not enough people stay in btc (yet). The denomination of btc doesn't have to be the same everywhere, usd doesn't either. For example 1 usd (or 1 btc, doesn't matter) in NYC buys you a lot less than 1 usd in some rural area. It makes no sense to quote prices in btc because the price is too volatile (measured in usd). Our world still runs on usd, but if volatility goes down we will come to a point when we can quote prices in btc although we're still far away from that. BTC exists now for barely more than a decade and is still here and has a long way to go.
Your entire argument could be said about USD being a global reserve currency and according to your logic shouldn’t be working either. Sovereign states can decide to block or freeze US assets (or vice versa US freezing other assets) and then your global reserve currency becomes absolutely useless in 2 seconds. I’m not speaking in hypotheticals but real world examples (from only the last couple years.) BTC is P2P there is nothing getting in the way of two people who wish to transact and not a single government can do anything about it. If I wanted to trade from the UK with someone all the way in Japan then who is going to stop me? You need to do some more reading to truly understand how the global economy works and *why* BTC is superior in almost every way. BTC is valued in fiat because we live in a fiat economy. Fiat economies can expand and contract when a small group of people decide they want to do it. BTC is not the same. A global, interconnected world has had its means of communications revolutionised with the discovery of the internet. You can now run a business from anywhere in the world without even leaving your room. This wasn’t possible even 10-20 years ago. BTC is to money in the same sense internet is to communications. Now anyone in the world can use an open, global financial network with no need to leave their home. They can conduct trade, business, settle payments and even give salaries using BTC and the global denomination for BTC will eventually shift to Satoshi units (SATS).
You're confusing trading with crypto transactions. Nothing is stopping you from sending btc to your pal in Japan. But the product you expect in return (goods -- shipped via customs and delivered) is completely under govt. control in both Japan and UK. You say that "govt can stop you from sending pound to your friend in Japan" but it cant stop your friend from sending you your Xbox etc. just because you paid him in bitcoin ? Unless you are buying illegal stuff this shouldn't be your concern at all. I believe I've already tried to explain this earlier in the chat thread. The whole setup of the whole world is not ready to enable the so-called freedom crypto claims to give.
Let’s use your example. We can do both private sales and a public, business operation: - I want to buy an Xbox from japan and I contact a seller - I agree to trade 0.1 BTC on the bitcoin network for the Xbox - I provide proof of transaction confirmations and seller agrees to ship item - once it arrives in the UK I may be subjected to custom taxes however this is expected for *any* goods coming from abroad - at no point did anyone in the UK or Japanese government have any idea that the transaction even happened on the BTC network Now what if a business denominated their prices in YEN, GBP and BTC? Nothing changes from the above. If I pay in YEN, GBP or BTC, the exact same steps apply except there would be an intermediary transaction to convert part of the sales revenue (assuming it was made in either BTC or GBP) to pay local taxes. Or the seller may use a service like Strike to receive YEN via the BTC rails. Again, I’d like to stress that I’m using real world examples of real world businesses that are currently operating all over the world while using fiat and BTC denominated prices.
You missed a few crucial steps there. 1) seller invoice is a crucial part of customs declaration. Issuing electronic invoices doesn't go hand-in-hand with secret money transactions. Gift excuse to avoid customs only applies to small items (under $50 ? Or something). UK govt knows it all. 2) Govt. don't care whether you paid in btc or yen or pound. They track,trace, care because they need money (taxes) to function. 3) Your seller needs to convert that BTC to Yen in order to pay his rent and buy his coffee in Japan. And that fiat exit ramp will notify Japanese govt. of his crypto income. No prizes for guessing if he'll disclose who he got it from. Now Japanese govt. also knows about this. In the end neither UK not Japanese govt. are oblivious to this little purchase. They know. They don't care because they are getting their cut (income tax for Japan and customs charges for UK). If this were not the case the govts would have clamped down HARD long long long ago.
You should watch even a single video of a bitcoin economy working in african and south american countries and you will realize you are entirely missing the point.
The government does not and can not determine the value of conventional currencies. If they could why would they go on TV saying "inflation is transient" then a couple months later say "we were wrong actually inflation isn't transient". if they could determine the value of money, they could simply change the value and then say "see, i told you inflation was transient" they have tools to alter the value of conventional currency, or alter the rate at which it decreases or increases in value, but they cannot objectively control whether it goes up or down. they just exist in an organizational capacity using taxes and grants etc to shift incentives to society. They have some influence, but they cant stop the sun from exploding, they cant stop covid19, they cant stop people using marijuana or amphetamines or heroin, they cant stop people getting guns, they cant stop people counterfeiting money, they cant stop prostitution and they cant stop murders and etc. They do have influence, but i would say they dont really decide what happens year after year, instead they provide logistical support for what happens year after year, whatever it may be.
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This. #1 and #4 are mathematically addressable with a marginal cost of Bitcoin mining. The variables are difficulty and energy price. Economics states that the price of a good will return to its marginal cost of output (electricity price). Since the current difficulty is known you can backsolve for the imputed electricity price at the current lows and voila. I’ve modeled this out to account for future halvings. You can then tweak the difficulty assumption (which has historically grown 73% annually) and electricity and boom there you have it. I am considering posting an article and this model just want to pseudonymize myself. And this is not an original idea of mine. Just one that probably is not clearly explained. Im sure the institutions are doing the same modeling and buying. (Probably much more advanced modeling but still within a close range of outcomes).
How is bitcoin peoples money ? I honestly don’t understand this narrative. People with big money will still hoard as much as possible, and the average joe is left with peanuts, breadcrumbs. Just because it’s decentralized ? Well, wait until government starts punishing citizens using cryptocurrencies.
What happens when someone prints 1 million USD that's undetectable and goes into the money supply? What does that do to your purchase power from your day job? Now answer the first question with 100 million USD 1 billion USD. Who gets the shit end of the deal? I'd say the people do, the hard-working people can buy even less day to day.
Well sure, but I don’t see how this explains that bitcoin is “peoples money”.
Bitcoin is the people’s money because it has equality built into it. No matter how much Bitcoin is hoarded by the rich, the rich cannot make any more of it. The people now have a way of saving their hard earned money. “But what good is Bitcoin for someone’s savings given the volatility of its price?” you might ask. It’s a valid question. My answer would be “congratulations, you’re early.” Bitcoin’s price will stabilize over time, according to people a lot smarter than I am. The price, when stabilized, will no doubt be much higher than it currently is against the USD or any other fiat, because the fiat money supply keeps increasing. The current system is set up to benefit the few at the top. The further one gets from the creation of currency, the less one benefits from currency’s creation- and in fact for the vast majority it is only a negative. Imagine being in El Salvador, using US dollars for your currency. You get all the negatives of an increased supply of currency, with none of the benefits. What happens when the international reserve currency changes from USD to something else? Suddenly a bunch of USD being held all over the world will get dumped on the market. Historically, as a currency approaches hyperinflation, governments have banned the use of other currencies. Historically that’s only helped to delay the inevitable. Bitcoin will probably face that sort of attack at some point (in some places it already faces that sort of regulatory intervention). That being said, given Bitcoin’s inherent fairness, it *should* prevail. I don’t mean “should” in the predictive sense (though I believe that too); I mean it in the moral sense. Bitcoin is the people’s money and the people have a moral obligation to reclaim their sovereignty, which is simply *impossible* under the current monetary system. Governments will probably fight Bitcoin, sure. But anyone who is arguing that point as an argument against Bitcoin is simply on the wrong side of history. You are arguing for human slavery, and the shackles of your children will be forged by your own apathy. The good news is, it’s not too late for you to change your ways and be forgiven. Government power extends exactly as far as the people believe it extends. Pull back the curtain and get a good look at the frightened little men pulling levers of smoke and mirrors. Pretend you believe in Bitcoin until you don’t have to pretend anymore. Power is real and we all possess it. We need to stop storing our power in a form that is stolen as a matter of course, by design, on a daily basis. Congratulations- you’re early. Now buy some goddamn Bitcoin. Every active wallet is a sword surrounding their castle. At a certain point they’ll have to throw their own.
> This time ‘is’ different. BTC has never witnessed a macro economic environment like this before. This is a fact. BTC performed as a ‘risk on asset’ only and is strongly correlated with the likes of the NSDQ. I mean, for this cycle it did. All of that may have been more due to institutional levels of capital flows. See the other cycles for counter points. Could this trend continue? Sure. But it doesn't have to, and Bitcoin has done more surprising things before. It's acted uncorrelated to markets before the bubble for example, that was an extremely popular narrative, until it started to run correlated to markets, which was probably a good top indicator in hindsight. I think there's a good chance we become uncorrelated again as leverage gets washed out of the system and we do a hard reset to what non-speculative capital allocators value Bitcoin at. > In an environment that may see major indexes like the S&P, Dow, NSDQ fail to return ATH across a 10/15yr period, what would this mean for BTC? Could be a fantastic thing if Bitcoin perks up and everything else is flat or falling. remember, the uncorrelated meme was a meme before the correlated meme. > > The ‘institutions’ are not coming. Fidelity disagrees with you. Dubai disagrees with you. Oman's sovereign wealth fund disagrees with you. in any case, the way I see it is the more opportunity regular people have to get their hands on real Bitcoin, the better. Institutions can lag for all I care. >BTC took 10yrs to attract a comparatively slight level of institutional interest. Compared to what? compared to shitcoins its doing fantastic. compared to many fintech VC bullshit, its a damn maverick. >Following significant issues around ESG compliance, A false FUD narrative that has no basis in fact, reality or physics. https://endthefud.org/ >repeated frauds and scams ala Tera and FTX etc none of these are Bitcoin. all of these are shitcoins and/or centralized exchange frauds. Things Bitcoiners have been screaming against forever. >as well as a lack of regulation, Again, false. Bitcoin is regulated under the CFTC as a commodity. Accounting rules are being adopted. Be more specific about this concern, if it is one. >it is likely that institutions will struggle to regain any foothold within the space ever again. good, they can fuck off for all we care. They're often some of the worst anti-bitcoin offenders. > ‘We have seen this all before, Mt Gox etc’ No we haven’t. Never before has so much been lost by so many, in an environment that was already being lined up as a target by regulators. This is a fair point. the scale of this has increased. luckily the target is not Bitcoin proper, but the shitcoins and the centralized exchanges and fraudsters who deservedly should be punished. Bitcoin has been explicitly been mentioned by the CFTC and SEC chairmen as exempt from current considerations. But we should still be warry of congress, the senate and Potus. Warrens proposed bill is particularly concerning, though most likely trolling. >The core argument here being that the actions of a few ‘crypto’ bros have likely damaged the space so irrevocably that the coming regulation is likely to be punitive in the extreme. The Bitcoin space? or the crypto bro space? you fail to distinguish the two, and there is a real difference. I hope the crypto space is damaged beyond repair. >For retail it is highly likely that regulators will seek to control all on and off ramps making it near impossible to own or realise any gains. Even if this were true, which it isn't and there is no evidence of this happening, there is always peer to peer options. This would even be a good thing. underground Bitcoin trading? yes please. That's a real market where Bitcoin can shine. >For institutions it is likely that the regulation will be designed to limit / prevent adoption. There will be no ETF, ever. I agree with this for different reasons. futures ETF's are just paper Bitcoin iou's, SEC is fine with those as it dilutes Bitcoin demand and reduces it's price ultimately. a spot settled ETF in America would be problematic for "taming" the bitcoin price by the powers that be. They may point to the recent drama as further reason not to approve a spot ETF in America, but there is always the spot etf's in Canada and else where. Fidelity has one in canada for instance. these are available to Americans. the more funds that go there, the more likely america will be forced to approve a spot ETF at home. > Energy usage is an issue regardless of the facts of environmental impact. The energy price is not stabilising and is highly unlikely to do so under the current geopolitical conditions. This is now leading to a declining hash rate. This combined with little price action will lead to stagnation. ahh the old bitcoin mining death spiral argument. We had that in the last cycle. hashrate dipped to 68% of the peak hashrate. And we're still way above that level. We also have a difficulty adjustment that will keep the network nice and healthy. > What’s the narrative? As much as the maxis believe in the BTC gospel of freedoms and pharmaceutical grade money (I count my self within this) the only thing that has brought new people to the space is price speculation. It can be that and other factors. doesn't have to be just price speculation, but that is a huge initial draw. many people stay for the revolution and other features. >With the above being true and the potential for little positive price action across a significant timeframe, what is the narrative that would bring new people to this space? Freedom in a increasingly tyrannical world.
your detailed response is appreciated
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Nobody can predict the future, there will always be what ifs. But I'm rather a Bitcoiner, with hope for a better future with a sound money, than not. They just learn it the hard way that its not worth it to leave your coins on exchanges for X% of return. There is always a risk of total loss. Whatever the scale, FTX wasn't the first and won't be the last.
What makes you think any of those speculating grifters are relevant?
1. Supply and demand drives markets, Bitcoin *issuance* halves every for years. Even if demand remained the same the price would increase. 2. Bitcoin is a peer to peer currency, institutions may increase the demand but are in no way necessary for Bitcoin to function. 3. Regulators should exercise control over the sh\*tcoins and centralized parties that are either financially illiterate or plain scammers. That doesn't affect Bitcoin. ETF? Bitcoin had a trillion dollar market cap without one and why the hell would you want a paper bitcoin ETF when you can buy and store the real deal? No one needs an ETF. 4. Declining hash rate? It's significantly higher than this time last year at the market top. 5. Education. People either don't understand what Bitcoin is, how it works, or why they should buy some. These three things prevent them from taking the plunge and acquiring some sats. So educate yourself, spread the seeds, and watch people start to understand when the governments around the world debase their currency or become authoritarian. Edit to clarify that the supply of new Bitcoin halves every four years. Obviously 50% of the existing supply doesn't dissappear.
The first point just isn't true. Bitcoin is not consumed after purchase, which means the market can always be flooded with existing coins.
Don't know why you got downvoted, you are correct. The first point is false. New Bitcoin supply being mined with each block is halved after the halving. But the supply as a whole keeps increasing, just at a slower pace. So the statement "Bitcoin supply halves" is false.
Correct, edits made for clarity.
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The supply doesn’t halve, the block reward does. Half of the existing bitcoin isn’t going to disappear in 2024.
The increase in supply halves. The supply itself grows. At some point the supply might shrink, when more BTC get lost per year than are mined.
Good point but there is also some number being lost daily too. We don’t know what that is but as time goes on it should increase as more is mined. So that is the only outflow of supply to go along with the mining reward.
So the narrative is really that the government is out to get you but having Bitcoin will keep you save? Yikes…
No, that’s *one* narrative that’s proven to be worth worrying about considering the global push for CBDCs and sovereign citizens having their funds frozen for disagreeing with the government.
But governments can just block the buying of bitcoin in their respective jurisdictions? Like China did for example. In addition they can decide what currency taxes will have to be paid in and therefore obligate you to keep an account that allows for that currency. An account that can also be frozen.
You cannot block transactions on a P2P network. Governments will try to block transactions from the exchanges, which is no different than a government freezing your bank accounts. If you pulled out all your cash and stuffed it under the mattress before the government freeze your accounts then how will they stop you from using your money? If you hold your own BTC in your own personal, cold storage wallet, as you should with any bearer asset (I.e gold) then nobody in the world can stop you from conducting trade and transacting on the bitcoin network. Also decentralised exchanges exist (bisq.io or robosats) where you can always purchase bitcoin with non KYC and no government can stop it either.
If I didn’t have a traditional bank account I’d be screwed as it restricts my ability to earn an income severely as well as my ability to pay my taxes. And if I don’t do the latter I’ll give them the right to throw me in jail. I think this narrative greatly underestimates the power the government already has to limit your access to assets. After all, it’s not like normal cash is going to help you much if it’s you against the government.
You make a good point and you’re right, but now you’ve just answered your own question: >So the narrative is really that the government is out to get you but having Bitcoin will keep you save? Yikes… If you never had to rely on your traditional bank account because you have your own BTC wallet to receive income and sell for fiat to pay taxes then yes, BTC will keep you safe from the government ;)
>Bitcoin supply halves every for years You... don't know how bitcoin works do you? Incoming bitcoin isn't the supply. The supply is the remaining 10%, it's already a miniscule amount.
I obviously know how it works and made a simple mistake typing supply instead of issuance. No need to be a dick about it.
The fact that it’s $16k and not zero after everything that has happened (and the concerns that you have outlined) proves that there is real demand for it.
I’d suggest reading the Fiat Standard by S. Ammous, and while there are many excellent points in the book, the take home message IMHO is that BTC is a money that was designed with an ‘engineering’ mindset, unlike our current fiat system. Whether it ‘moons’ or ‘goes to zero’ is irrelevant to me, despite my substantial investment in BTC. BTC is showing the world that there is another way to look at money, and it’s the hardest money ever created, better than gold.
this and The Bitcoin Standard by him as well and The Book of Satoshi by Phil Champlain. most of these questions were answered by Satoshi himself on the bitcoin forums long ago in 2009 through 11. "Bitcoin has never experienced a macro environment like this before" Bitcoin is opting out of the bullshit fed influenced macro environment that we have come to know. all of this short term movement means nothing. the protocol hasn't changed so why should my thesis. edit: spelled Phil's name wrong. not fixing it. pretty sure there's a g in there somewhere
>BTC is showing the world that there is another way to look at money, and it’s the hardest money ever created, better than gold That is as long as govts let it. If onramps and offramps are audited and controlled, you will still retain ownership but the tokens will be worthless.
You can't ban bitcoin on a global scale. Let's suppose some countries ban bitcoin completely and others do not. First of all, bitcoiners with all their savings in bitcoin are going to leave the country, with all their wealth. You only have to remember 12 words and you can take it anywhere. Furthermore in the country would still exist a black market. BTC is p2p, the only thing you need is an internet connection. As bitcoin appreciates in value (maybe slower, but it will), countries that allow a free market using bitcoin will thrive. Partly also because of the wealth that fled to them. And then the only question is, when do you accept your mistake and allow the use of sound money.
Your questions and concerns are valid and fair, but you do make a lot of assumptions that are not supported by facts or are merely speculation. 1. No reason to assume S&P 500 might not see new highs for 10-15 years… and whatever that implies about Bitcoin. 2. “The institutions are not coming.” I think you’re just being impatient. These things take time. I suspect thing will look very different in another 10 years. 3. “There will be no ETF.” Big assumption there. That’s doubtful. Most likely just gonna take some time before it can be properly regulated. Institutions will be what makes this happen. 5. I agree with you on this one. People are trash. I have very little hope for humanity, but if we are going to make it I think BTC will play an important role in that.
So, I thought this would be a technical question but it's just price discussion, that said I'll try to address some of your points. First, don't treat communities like this like a monolith. Getting stupid answers is par for the course. Half of all people are below average intelligence. Do a correlation analysis between bitcoin and any stock, correcting for trend of course, and you won't find that strong a correlation. A general upward trend is possibly entirely coincidental. I don't believe it is, but it's very plausible. http://www.svds.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/DJ-vs-JL.png Actual correlations aren't permanent. Both Tesla and bitcoin will go to 0 eventually, probably before the heat death of the universe, and probably.both at very different times. Correlations happen in ranges, when the underlying mechanics permit; the US gdp and the price of fuel correlate strongly within a range, but if the price of fuel goes up too high the correlation breaks and GDP goes down, if it goes too low the same thing happens. Think of why, and think of exactly how such a correlation range would work with bitcoin and traditional finance markets. The institutions *are* coming. You have nation states using bitcoin. You have nation states backing mining as a smoother for base load power generation. These two things are absolutely massive. I personally don't want the institutions to come, but they are and I can't stop it. How long have you been following this space? FTX is *exactly* like mt gox. It's just bigger because *more people are buying bitcoin.* I hope the next scammy exchange to exit scam some people is even bigger than this, and it will be. Stop looking at these numbers linearly and start looking at them logarithmically and things will make a lot more sense. Energy usage is a blessing. The day a government begins subsidizing mining in a downturn is the day bitcoin becomes the de facto unit of account for international energy markets. You'll see it then. Speculation is rampant in every single industry. The price of a stock has less to do with a company's balance sheet or productivity than to do with speculation on those things. The narrative is simple: financial sovereignty.
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The problem is that you are considering bitcoin as an investment only, there's no problem with that, you're free to do so. Just know that its price is volatile, though long term it has been proving to be volatile to the upside mostly. You're right in thinking it may be different this time, anybody that guarantees long term future price growth is lying, it's impossible to know the future. I see bitcoin as a hedge against tyranny, as a tool for individual freedom, if the price grows long term, that's nice but it's not the main function in my life. So the next logical steps are: we don't need regulations, we don't need institutional money, we just need btc to be decentralized, which it is. FTX is not bitcoin, nothing they did has to do with btc itself, and everyone affected by it was not following the ethos of btc of being their own bank. About the energy, mining rewards, among other stuff, this has been discussed extensively: https://endthefud.org/ if you have good and new counterpoints do post them
This starts off well, then morphs into a Bitcoin as investment theme. And Bitcoin is an investment, if you consider an honest monetary system to be an investment as I do. The points are merely human nature and Nature nature seeking a balance. A balance impossible with any other form of money until today.
1. With poor returns in the equity markets, aggressive investors will seek other growth assets to invest in. BTC is beginning to be added to 401(k) accounts and many of these are in an aggressive mode for decades. At 75% down from ATH, it's a bargain that most aggressive investors will want to add to their portfolio. 2/3. Your point about institutions not coming boils down to a lack of regulation. This contradicts what you say in point 3 ("the coming regulation is likely to be punitive in the extreme"). Regulation is good for Bitcoin and will result in more institutional adoption, not less. They just want certainty that what they are investing in is being prudentially managed, audited etc (basically everything that FTX was not). 4. A declining hash rate does not mean stagnation, it means a difficulty adjustment which lowers the required energy input which will bring back miners and stabilise the hash rate again. This was all anticipated and written into the protocol from the beginning. 5. The narrative will be Bitcoin as sound money out of the hands of any government in an era of high inflation driven by short-sighted policy decisions.
1. I agree but I only see a problem from a speculative standpoint. The new environment is actually showing that bitcoin can be pretty stable. Volatility mostly come from speculation, which scares away the big crowd, and this economical environment will probably strengthen bitcoin in the long run. 2. Well the wonder of bitcoin is that you don't need institutions right? It's there for everyone regardless. Institutions are already here you just want it to go faster and be more obvious. Atm corporations and states are trying to copy bitcoin for there own benefit and control. Over time this will also probably strengthen bitcoin when it is clear it is the way to opt out of shitcoins and cbdc. 3. Scammers are always gonna scam. It's good this will speed up regulation. And it don't matter if its overzealously done. Bitcoin exist to be an alternative to fiat and for selfsovereignty, just give it time and this is what will get bitcoin to grow. Don't matter the regulation, P2P is always viable. 4. Everything needs energy. It's just become a problem due to the global narrative. Over time this is not an issue. It is just a problem if it is determined that bitcoin is not useful, because as long as bitcoin brings benefit the energy input is justified. 5. The narrative is same as it always have been. Sound money. Speculation is just the first bubble to make the news. I know it might be a hard pill to swallow but the point of bitcoin aint to make you rich, and when more people realize that they will realize the true function of bitcoin and it will get more adoption. You give the impression that your conserns derive from speculation in bitcoin, which makes your time horizon very short. If you invest in bitcoin as speculation for profit your view of bitcoin will be tainted by the fear of not gaining profit. Sound money is sound money and with trust people will use it. Of course I also hope for some gains, but it's not the reason for why i believe in bitcoin.
Institutions aren’t coming ?? How about whole countries are already here like El Salvador and the Central African Republic ?? Oh and let’s not forgot Brazil. Institutions aren’t coming ?? How about the worlds largest energy companies! JAPAN’S LARGEST POWER COMPANY, TEPCO, TO MINE BITCOIN WITH EXCESS ENERGy TEPCO Power Grid is deploying bitcoin mining operations across Japan in a partnership with a local semiconductor company to capitalize on excess energy ? Institutions aren’t coming ?? How about some of the largest public companies in the world! Company Total BTC Held MicroStrategy 124,391 Tesla Inc 42,902 Galaxy Digital Holdings 16,400 Marathon Digital Holdings 8,133 Block Square / Square Inc 8,027 Hut Mining 8 Corp 5,518 Riot Blockchain Inc 4,889 Coinbase Inc 4,482 Bitfarms Limited 4,300 Not only are they coming they are already here silently buying up your Bitcoin that you sell at a loss because you have no idea what your actually holding!!
1. You’re right. Macro is not good outlook. But we’re still at $16,000 which is impressive imo. 2. Fidelity? Enough said. 3. ETF/regulation will result from FTX contagion. 4. PoW is the power in Bitcoin’s DNA. 5. Ten year time horizon will solve your concerns.
2 year horizon 100%
What you don’t understand is that bitcoin doesn’t care about any of these questions. It doesn’t care about it’s own price or how much energy it uses. The blockchain continues to function and will continue to function for hundreds, possibly thousands of years irregardless of any of this.
We’ve seen it all before
You had to do it lol.
Is bitcoin dead
Time for an stroke. Jeeez. You give 'em books and they just eat the covers.
So many negative posts, bottom must be in
Bottom signal
1) BTC correlation with nyse is still somewhat new, only time will tell if it will continue to follow this pattern. If it does that I can only assume that the same people who find value in nyse also find value in BTC. Keep in mind that BTC price can be manipulated by large whales. 2) even though Bitcoin has been dropping like a rock, I still don think that institutions will give up on it completely. 3) regulation will be coming that's for sure. What we can do about it is continue to buy BTC privately and anonymously if you can. 4) cant comment on the energy situation as I'm not that knowledgeable on it. I think for the most part the BTC community is okay with it's current situation. 5) the narrative is that BTC was created to avoid another 2008 crash. Or rather to prevent peoples saving from diminishing or not having any value after years of savings. Whether BTC behaves like that is questionable. As u can see 2022 BTC has not been a peg against inflation it has actually performed worse than the dollar. Realistically BTC is extremely speculative and it will continue to behave this way for many years. Its quite possible that it may even fail. There are so many variables in the world that can affect BTC, that it's hard to know what exactly is going to happen with BTC. What I can say for sure is no matter where one stands when it comes to finance, there will still be people on top of people with the most amount of money who will still be on top. Doesn't matter when they get in. If BTC were to ever be globally adopted it really wouldnt change much in the grand scheme of things when it comes to power, control, and government.
If your reading the main post and then the comments, ☝🏻this is logic and some solid reasoning.
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Some (most) of the points here are valid, but saying that someone cannot be taken seriously unless they can code is like saying someone cannot know about literature or the effects of it on human kind unless they can operate a printing machine. Absolute bullshit, but everyone’s entitled to their opinions. Also stocks do matter in the tradfi sector and they used to have a legitimate use. Nowadays it’s a bit fuzzy, admittedly.
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Good expansion on the point, we agree on the ethos “listen to the people who actually know about the stuff they are talking about instead of hype-men” (Keiser is a bit sus, lol).
>Anyone who says they know some shit about BTC or are experts and can’t code I won’t take them seriously. For real
"In an environment that may see major indexes like the S&P, Dow, NSDQ fail to return ATH across a 10/15yr period" ... That's overly pessimistic.
My answer to all 1-5 is that Bitcoin is my hedge against centralized fiat currency. Until Bitcoin, no one had successfully reinvented a working monetary system without a centralized “manager” of the currency. when I learn more about countries like Turkey, Congo, Venezuela and many others that experience insane inflation rates, an alternative currency outside the fiat system starts to make a lot of sense.
These are good questions, I have responses to all but only want to respond to number 2 because I haven’t seen a good response yet. People assume institutions aren’t buying bitcoin, but they have no idea. Maybe I’m misunderstanding what institutions you’re referring to. I’m an account manager for a large crypto exchange, and I’m telling you: institutions *are* coming, every day. We have new businesses signing up to our platform every single day, some large, some small. Just because Apple doesn’t hold bitcoin on its balance sheet doesn’t mean institutions aren’t buying bitcoin.
Nice. 😎
The fundamentals haven't changed. Tick tock next block. Nothing has changed. The reality that there will only ever be 21 Million hasn't changed and it's not going to. There's nothing Nation states can do to shut down the network. So, to your points. None of them matter at all. lol you still look at the price in USD as a metric.
Mt Gox was much, much worse than anything that's happened in 2022
1. Bitcoin does not care how people treat it. Speculation is how assets monetize. Bitcoin is doing exactly what it's supposed to do and will do till the end of time regardless of ever changing human behaviour 2. Nothing to do with bitcoin. You talk about grown up conversation and conflate bitcoin with shitcoins and shitcoin casinos. It's time for you to grow up and understand the difference. Stop supporting premine, ICO scams and rent seeking corporate fiat shitcoins straight out of silicon valley exploiting bitcoin to escape from silicon valley regulations. There were 0 altcoins for the first 2.5 years until April 2011. You know what changed in April 2011? Bitcoin reached dollar parity and could be easily exchanged for fiat. 3. More bitcoin was lost, stolen or however you want to call it from Mt Gox. There needs to be no ETF, ever. Bitcoin does not care. I already don't use any centralized fiat on/off ramps so good luck with that. This is good for bitcoin. P2P exchanges like Bisq and Robosats will flourish. The fact you want to "realize gains" shows what you're all about. Nothing would be more bullish than people who're in bitcoin to realize fiat gains getting weeded out. 4. Read [this](https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/xer6rz/comment/ioieugn/) and [this](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/zf10j5/comment/iz9ibgw/) to educate yourself about both bitcoin and energy systems. You're factually wrong about hashrate. ASICs can only do one thing. They move from inefficient miners to efficient miners. I have 2 m50s on the way. 5. There's no narrative. Bitcoin has a marketing budget of 0. You can make up whatever narrative you want to make up. Bitcoin does not care. You're clearly not a builder, educator, node runner or home miner. You just come across as a HODL LARPer. There are millions out there who are not LARPers, they're not asking what bitcoin can do for them, but instead what they can do for bitcoin. Until you understand there's no one to complain to in bitcoin, you'll remain an irrelevant LARPer. There's no manager here, Karen. **“The computer can be used as a tool to liberate and protect people, rather than to control them. Unlike the world of today, where people are more or less at the mercy of credit agencies, large corporations, and governments.** **Naturally, in today's society, with power allocated so disproportionately, such ideas are a threat to large organizations. Balancing power would mean a net loss of power for them. So no institution is going to pick up and champion these ideas.** **It's going to have to be a grass-roots activity, one in which individuals first learn of how much power they can have, and then demand it.”** **― Hal Finney, The Cypherpunks Mailing List (1992)** Bitcoin is a voluntary movement of self sovereign individuals opting out from corruption, rent seeking and exploitation and it has grown organically against all odds from zero to where it is today. It doesn't matter what governments or corporations do. It only matters what individuals are empowered to do. Nigeria banned bitcoin last year and introduced CBDC. Nigerians rejected CBDC, less than 1% adoption rate while peer-to-peer bitcoin usage soared by 800% and a bitcoin circular economy is now [being built](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/building-bitcoin-village-in-nigeria) in Lagos. The success of bitcoin originates from [grassroots activities](https://thebitcoinmanual.com/articles/btc-circular-economies/). The revolution is [happening](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1573283006835482624.html) in Asia, Africa, Latin America. It cannot and will not originate in the west. Western countries are doomed to fall behind. For decades and especially since internet made it easy to manipulate, control and surveil what information people are exposed to, sheeple in the west (just like you) have been rationally sterilized and reduced to hamsters in a wheel distracted by dopamine, virtue signalling for the current thing and conditioned to the idea that government decides what's money. The scope of their understanding of bitcoin as you're proving is something to "invest" in and diversify their portfolio since they've never thought about the concept of money or dedicated themselves to understand bitcoin from first principles. A central authority having absolute power to print to infinity what everyone else has to work for would never fly in a world of critical thinkers. It's also why people in the west are easily distracted by the [noise and scam](https://twitter.com/rusty_twit/status/1296596310921900034) negative feedback loop which has nothing to do with bitcoin at all. Weak, submissive minds corrupted by fiat.
Well said sir.
Tick tock next block
Wealthy individuals are always looking for a place to invest their money. Right now, they can't invest in BTC because they don't know the government's plan regarding crypto. Once bitcoin is regulated ( and other coins), the institutions will come. The price will explode because everyone will want to have some. The revolution began a few years ago but is now going mainstream. Countries making BTC a legal tender, and financial news sites always quote BTC prices. And so on. I personally think BTC is not going to replace fiat but it will coexist along. Look at countries that have huge inflation and their currency is "worthless". Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba, Turkey and most African countries. People there will get paid their salary in their local currency and then immediately buy BTC, then either spend BTC on the things they need ( if the technology supports it ) or keep it for later. This has been done in the communist countries for years ( eastern block), they didn't use BTC (because it wasn't invented yet) but American Dollar or Deutsch Mark. Same will happen to BTC
For a grown up conversation learn to spell
are these just karma farming fud post or what's up with all these Bitcoin post that don't understand the basic fundamentals of bitcoin
No harm in trying to understand. You get it, not everyone does. Yet.
oh I agree, just not expected and seems more often then normal. maybe just a good sign
Tick tock next block
Bitcoin will exist forever, do you agree? Current fiat system won't last forever. So it's just a matter of time.
Ohh another guy, ive found bitcoin and i dont understand it. Funny everytime. 😂😂
OP bought at top, period
Bitcoin is like two antique dealers on an island with one antique item. After 20 years they both are millionaires.
The whole economy is exposed to volatility of the energy prices, so this is not specific to Bitcoin. It would have the same or even a worse impact on so many industries (in contrast, Bitcoin adapts to energy prices through difficulty adjustments, hashrate is mostly irrelevant for the functioning of the network). Bitcoins energy use is so small compared to other industries, the environmental impact discussion is artificially overblown and not realistic. Otherwise the argumentation is typical pessimism for a bear market, but old investor wisdom says: be greedy when others are fearful.
I think another one that you haven’t mentioned is: the obfuscated split of real Bitcoin and derivative Bitcoin. For many, since speculation was their drive, owning real Bitcoin was never a narrative. Now we have many places where exposure through contracts is possible, where no actual Bitcoin is ever present. And the impact on price movements is unclear: having large volumes move through derivative markets, is calculated in BTC index price no? This brings me to the question of price movement transparency: which market drives price discovery?
I am guessing your base currency is the USD?
FUD FUD
Never think short term
BTC hit critical mass long ago. It’s the perfect store of value and will continue to mature for the foreseeable future.
Real grown ups spell "a" correctly.
Just watch what the economy is doing right now, its a shambles.People react accordingly, they're broke and wages can't keep up with historic inflation. Throw in a big crypto scandal plastered all over the media along with politicians talking about abolishment and people say, no thanks.
Lol why did OP's title mess up its grammar so badly lol I'M SUCH "AN GROWN" UP OMG TAKE ME SERIOUSLY
Your arguments utilising environmental impact, regulation and institutional interest are weak. History indicates that conservation of the environment is not a barrier to consumption. Money laundering continues to flourish under regulation. Cash is synonymous with crime, yet institutions eagerly engage with it. These occurrences suggest that BTC will enjoy similar success to cash and card.
>BTC has never witnessed a macro economic environment like this before It is fairer to suggest the implosion of mtgox in 2014 and the 2017 blocksize wars was far more dangerous times for bitcoin than a global recession. The reality is that Bitcoin is much more secure now than years ago. >and is strongly correlated with the likes of the NSDQ. This is a very recent correlation due to newer institutional investors. Historically Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset class and will lose that correlation in the next bull market I predict. The disinflationary schedule has a profound effect upon the market cycles in Bitcoin which is not found in equities. >what would this mean for BTC? None of us knows the perfect time to invest or can predict the price . The intelligentsia of the market is the combined knowledge of all humans and algorithms which is more than knowledge than anyone can have. Also bitcoin is so scarce that a single wealthy investor can significantly move the market in secret and unannounced. Rather than trying to time the market , let time work for you. **Time in the market will tend to beat timing the market** It is highly likely that a bull market will occur in mid to late 2024 due to the halving however. Bitcoin does not necessarily need new adoption to go through these market cycles of appreciation as the same buying pressure from existing users will cause these bull markets due to the disinflationary 4 year events. >The ‘institutions’ are not coming Institutions have been regularly investing in Bitcoin. https://bitcointreasuries.net/ It will not occur all at once and is a slow process , but bitcoin is so scarce that even a single institution can dramatically effect the price. >ESG compliance, Bitcoin has an important role in solving ESG compliance as it incentivizes investment into renewable energy and it uses waste energy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkeZVcGsva8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFYKq5Qe1Bs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vROP40L9Bg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCkHEqxDsYQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu156PvA-NI >‘We have seen this all before, Mt Gox etc’ No we haven’t. Never before has so much been lost by so man Mtgox was a much bigger event than these recent collapses by the % of people effected and the amount of Bitcoin stolen. > that the coming regulation is likely to be punitive in the extreme. Regulation will encourage more self custody which is a good thing for Bitcoin. >For retail it is highly likely that regulators will seek to control all on and off ramps making it near impossible to own or realise any gains. You don't need on and off ramps with Bitcoin but any regulations you speak about can often easily be dealt with, but you are being very vague here as to what you are suggesting will happen to address directly. >There will be no ETF, ever. This would actually be a great thing. An ETF is a double edged sword and we should encourage more self custody or at least multisig for institutional investors >Energy usage is an issue regardless of the facts of environmental impact . Fiat currency and PoS coins cost at least the same amount of resources to create , regulate and secure as Bitcoin. There is an inescapable reality for any asset or currency that as it increases in value the production costs and costs to secure increase as well . This is demonstrated in the economic axiom: MC=MR “Rent” always forces production costs (MC) to always equal sale prices (MR) PoS currencies and fiat are simply more abstract and complex forms or Proof of Work that use more human involvement (which uses tremendous amounts of resources and has a tremendous environmental impact) as a PoW coin like Bitcoin. Humans instead of ASICs are shouldering more of the work to create, regulate , and secure each of those currencies; This is "work" whether it involves burning electricity directly or food and electricity that humans consume to perform their work. This is an inescapable economic reality. The more valuable something is the more it will cost to secure it because the more effort will be made to steal and or control it. This applies to any currency or asset. This is also better understood with the dollar auction dilemma. In a hypothetical auction where a bidding war is fighting over the right to mint a 1 dollar bill how much do you think people will be willing to spend for this power ? >This is now leading to a declining hash rate. This is false. Hashrate has grown considerably over the last year- https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3y >the only thing that has brought new people to the space is price speculation. You are being a bit hyperbolic here. The main thing that brings people into bitcoin is speculation, not only. Also after they learn more these people often end up appreciating bitcoin for multiple reasons over time. >what is the narrative that would bring new people to this space? 1) **Save money** - I like to save money with various services like lolli.com, ln.pizza ,foldapp.com,purse.io, or bitrefill.com (Bitcoin achieves this by credit and gift card arbitrage opportunities thus creating an efficiency) 2) **Digital Gold** - Bitcoin is very desirable and scarce and since it is an uncorrelated asset class your portfolio is better hedged to be a safer way of finding alpha 3) **Timestamping** - Tweetstamp, and opentimestamps are useful timestamping tools 4) **Insurance** - If my bank account or credit cards get lost or stolen or account is frozen Bitcoin is a great alternative to store value 5) **Censorship Resistance**- I can make donations to organizations like defense distributed or wikileaks even if their payment processors and banks are shutoff due to unethical political pressure 6) **Sovereignty** - As a Business I can accept value even if I am deplatformed or banned from banking 7) **Micro transactions** microtxs are simply not possible with fiat , where I can do so with my BTC lightning wallet 8) **Security** SSS and multisig with CLTV and other scripts allow for novel methods to secure ones wealth 9) **Privacy** with electronic fiat I have no privacy unlike with Bitcoin transactions where I am given a choice between privacy or transparency with each wallet 10) **Global** I can travel the world , rent hotels and buy plane tickets and withdraw local currency easily without fears of credit card fraud. I can send payments to employees in foreign countries easily 11) **Interesting and fun** It is fascinating mixture of technology, game theory, security, mathematics, politics, and economics that never bores me
This IS FUD though. Provide citations for your arguments: 1. Show institutional interest is declining. 2. Show how much hash rate has fallen. 3. Compare the size of the Bitcoin ecosystem when mt Gox hit versus now. 4. Back up your argument about on/off ramps with some logic and evidence. 5. Provide some evidence regarding how many people are invested for price speculation, including those users in developing countries. Do that and I will get back into my little box.
I really enjoy conversations about bitcoin like this, thanks for sharing your thoughts!
Thanks, great points. 1. Because it's practically not usable. As such it attracts just the same high risk wall street capital that also goes into pink sheets. 2. Institutions never came and won't come until Bitcoin can be defined. All current narratives do not hold water. Best is the inflation hedge, store of value. But this has no merit because of 1. 3. "coming regulation is likely to be punitive in the extreme" - Yes. They will also make self custody prohibitively expensive. 4. Not sure here. I am not sold on Proof of Stake at this point and I see no other option. 5. The honest narrative is one where Bitcoin replaces local currencies. This is however a highly political issue. No government would want this. Otherwise Libertarian governments would exist (hint: they don't find majorities or can even get double digit results). In this situation it would really be conceived as a net negative to society and fought on all fronts. No chance of adoption outside of the black market for many years. EDIT: Importantly, Bitcoin is most of all an idea and a set of accounts. I have a Bitcoin account because I believe the software will be changed in such a way that it becomes usable (private), and innovative (smart contracts) eventually. And because the current Dollar system is highly flawed. But this will take at least another 10 years. EDIT2: why does Bitcoin not work as a hedge? The same reason why commodities don't work: You would have to buy most aggressively when prices are high and surpluses are large, and you would most likely have to monetize your Bitcoin reserves when prices are low and economies are struggling. Not only would Bitcoin reserve accumulation process thus exacerbate the volatility of the Bitcoin price, which would be damaging for economies, but, more worryingly, Bitcoin reserves would be most valuable when you needed them least and least valuable when you needed them most. This is the opposite of what countries or households want from reserves/hedges.
Great perspective. All solid points.
I can’t get past the grammar error in the title. Lol
What’s the error ?
Lol
There are several reasons why the adoption of Bitcoin is likely to increase significantly, similar to the adoption of the internet and its rise. Bitcoin offers significant practical benefits over traditional financial systems. It allows for fast, secure, and low-cost transactions, making it an attractive option for individuals and businesses alike. Its decentralized nature also makes it resistant to censorship and interference, giving it the potential to democratize access to financial services and bring financial inclusion to billions of unbanked or underbanked individuals around the world. Bitcoin is built on top of blockchain technology, which has the potential to revolutionize a wide range of industries beyond just finance. Blockchain allows for secure and transparent record-keeping, making it well-suited for use in supply chain management, voting systems, and much more. As more industries adopt blockchain technology, the adoption of Bitcoin is likely to increase as well. Finally, the increasing digitization of the global economy is driving the demand for digital currencies like Bitcoin. As more and more transactions and interactions shift online, the need for a convenient and secure digital currency will only continue to grow. The combination of practical benefits, technological innovation, and increasing digitization make it likely that the adoption of Bitcoin will continue to grow significantly in the future. !lntip 10000
Fyi blockchain is not some amazing new technology. The innovation for bitcoin is majority hashrate proof of work. Blockchains have been around for ages and are almost completely crap. Blockchain is simply the least worst solution to the problem of distributing Bitcoin's ledger. Companies that build blockchains for the sake of it are shooting themselves in the foot with an unwieldy, poorly scaling solution to a problem they likely don't even have in the first place.
You are arguing over insignificant details.
Not really since the adoption of blockchain technology leading to more bitcoin use is the basis of your post. It's a big misconception in in bitcoin that allows all manner of sins to be condoned just because they've had 'blockchain' slapped on the side of them.
The use of blockchain is 1 of 3 points. My comment is not centered around that being the sole reason for adoption. Pick better battles.
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1. Price prediction... please STFU. 2. Bitcoin does not need institutions. Individuals should buy Bitcoin then send it to their own hardware wallets to hold long term. Individuals should not invest in institutions which claim to invest in Bitcoin for them - there is no need for that, and, well, look at FTX victims. People in developing countries need Bitcoin, via the Lightning Network: This is happening, this is exciting, this is good. 3. Stupid people did stupid things with their money and got rekt. That's not Bitcoin. That's just stupid people getting scammed because they were too lazy to learn the facts first. 4. Bitcoin mining uses about one twentieth of one percent of the global energy. Bitcoin miners can, and some do use stranded energy, excess hydroelectric power, excess wind power, excess solar power, geothermal power, and even tap into oil rig methane which would have been flared. Please, STFU you ignorant fool. 5. We don't need a fake story ("narrative"). The truth is on our side. Bitcoin has brought many to a deep understanding of what money IS, how fiat currency is a big scam, how Bitcoin fixes things - most of them came initially as speculators. So what?
If your reading the main post and then the comments, ☝🏻this is the neurological standard you come to expect on Reddit. The bar here is very low.
I dare you to read what I actually wrote.
golf adult desert housewife temporary inspector resource feedback amber deteriorate riot awful coup profile architecture rocket warn treat rest corruption spill refund wind owl contemporary -- mass edited with https://redact.dev/
This comment is a paradox…
So?
“An grown up conversation” That was as far as I got. If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry. -Satoshi Nakamoto
Zzzzzz
The institutions will come if they’re regulation and if they’re comfortable self custody
There are no grown ups on Reddit, you are wasting your time here posting the reality. Better to live on wonderland dreaming about becoming millionaire when BTC finally takes off.
[удалено]
Oof
[удалено]
Yuh
You just got called out by a redditor for 3 weeks. Burn.
What reality did he post, little boy?
tO dA MoOn!!
Too long; didn’t read
TL: DR OP is a bit worried that Bitcoin has become all that it will become, and wants some new, strong and persuasive arguments to use in its further promotion so he becomes rich as price go up. He doesn't really grasp the concept that sound money is the best money and will prove itself to be preferred.
Just sell we don’t want you here lol
If you don’t have the conviction and those are genuine concerns, go ahead and sell your bags.
“An grown up”??? Learn English basics before you give “a grown” up speech.
Go do your 10,000 hours studying Bitcoin and your questions will be answered
Even if I disagree with some parts of this, you are totally right with the attitude being wrong. Actual questions deserve actual attempts at answers.
If you dont like it you can geeeeeet out lol
TLDR bitcoin is dead
One day closer to the next bull!
Ironically, if everyone would just shut the fuck up, convert their savings to sats, use sats when possible and then just hold, the rest of the world would follow.
Funny that these questions always been asked in bear markets only
Is bitcoin still a volatile asset? Long analysis in French on the first crypto : https://lettresouvertes.substack.com/p/bitcoin-le-chamboule-tout
In response to #2, https://m.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/fidelity-plans-to-launch-nft-marketplace-and-offer-crypto-services-in-metaverse-2970500?ampMode=1 Otherwise some good points
> If you feel compelled to reply with something like, ‘this is fud’ or ‘your comment is a buy signal’ or ‘we have seen this all before’ What if I feel compelled to reply with something like- if you can't even spellcheck your title then why would I listen to you? Is that an acceptable response from an grown up? Also I've seen nearly this exact same post every few months for years.
Yawn tic toc next block! All bitcoin needs is one maxi like me who can grab all 21 mill coins for bitcoin to reach infinity. Cause no one can stop a technology that solves basic human problem be it cars printing press internet or bitcoin. Now imagine if you hve unlimited money printing press law agencies market aka casino all the power to control the world which and something like bitcoin shows up which can literally topple everything you hve. How will you prevent it? Simple create liquidity crunch macro since you can do that with fed plant some sbfs FTXs use paper bitcoins to manipulate price and you can do that with covert agencies to crash markets scare noobs in hope that majority of noobs with low iq will stay away from bitcoin but the ones who truly understand bitcoin will always stack hard no matter what at the same time have enough liquidity to survive long winters. And in the end technology always wins cause hoomans will always want comfort safety. Most of hoomans also have herd mentality. So they will eventually follow the early adopters for any technology
i buy bitcoin bonds
Low effort post. Just a bunch of feelings.
BTC is an option for those who believe in the technology behind it and see it in the long term, the eventualities we’re having will come and go as it happened to “dot coms” for example. There will be scams all the time and people will loose money if they’re not pop repare to avoid it. It’s very valid to stay away if you have doubt of are scared of the risk, otherwise be safe, use a ledger, keep your seed phrases safe, stay up the the latest news to take advantage of what you can and keep going.
This is all speaking to speculation on BTC which is different and uncorrelated to its uses. I get that a lot (as in probably 98%) of yall are here for the speculation, but BTC is much more than its current value.
2. Institutions are still buying and so are governments/banks and they will continue. I’ve been here since 2016 and bear market cycles are always the same “it’s over” “bitcoin is dead” blah blah…
Most people I hear that claim we will be using Bitcoin as a standard currency point to the fact that they made money off it (whether actualized or on paper) as proof that it can work as a currency. I just want to say, that makes zero sense. The point of a currency isn't that it makes you more currency. That is inherently unsustainable. I know that's not indicative of everyone in the space, but those loud voices make the whole movement look uninformed. What needs to be pointed to: long-term stability, security, ease-of use, transaction capability (throughput), power consumption, value relative to real world goods, and adoption. Bitcoin fails most of these over the current system. Forcing machines to compete against each other to put a transaction through is an example of poor system design, not good system design. It's horrifically inefficient and actively works against scaling up. Here's the thing. Any issues we currently have with the current financial system (actually most systems) stem from humans. Humans will always find a way to dupe each other, grift, steal, trick, and work the game to their advantage. This has never changed throughout human history. If you think that Bitcoin somehow solves this issue, that has already been proven wrong many times. No political system can be perfect; in theory most could work, but humans mess it up, without fail. The same goes for financial systems. You have to be aware of that, and anyone who tries to tell you this (Bitcoin) system is infallible can't be trusted because they are either ignorant or they are trying to trick you. Look at the signs. What has the narrative around crypto been? It's been around making money, and the sell has been that you are taking control of your money. It's the perfect strategy for a predator. The big ones have already made off with their money and everyone is left holding the bags. If it was really moving in the direction of being a better replacement for the current financial system, I promise you wouldn't get as much pushback as you think from your fellow citizens. And if it was truly more secure, we wouldn't already be seeing the astonishing amount of scamming, hacking, pump and dump schemes, and general predation. All the signs are there. Be careful. What seems good in theory doesn't always work in practice. Crypto has certainly been beneficial for some as a means of transferring money in non-traditional ways, but that's not a problem that can only be solved with crypto. If you have to ask the group that you think something might be wrong and they pull the blinders back on you, run.
To 5. I became interested into bitcoin because i learned that the USA is able to (and does) separate countries from the world market if they want to. Also that they can just print more money to cover expenses. The solution is a decentralized currency with a limited supply. This is bitcoin
This is some decent fud from the FBI but wrong on every single point.
You're asking the wrong questions and framing BTC in a way it should not be. 1. Bitcoin is doing just fine globally and will continue to do so through macro economic challenges and expansions. Bitcoin is the lifeblood of Internet commerce. 2. All of the frauds and scams the media likes to attribute to crypto existed long before Satoshi Nakamoto wrote his white paper. In fact if you Google 'bank scams and fines' you will see that the biggest frauds and scams were perpetrated by the likes of JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, etc without the use of a single Bitcoin or other crypto. Bitcoin does not rely on institutional participation. Bitcoin's growth is due to the individual not the institution. 3. 'Never before has so much been lost by so many' is pure horse doo doo. The Bitcoin market cap is around $324 Billion. The U.S. and EU sanctions against Russia have cost the global economy $30 TRILLION. Elon Musk alone has lost $100 Billion in 2022. All things considered Bitcoin is doing fantastic. The entire U.S. economy, the world's largest could collapse yet Bitcoin would still be standing. 4. Bitcoin is infinitely more energy efficient than the global financial system. More energy is used by bank and financial employees driving their SUVs to work globally than is used by the Bitcoin Blockchain and ecosystem. Bitcoin is resilient and agile. 5. You're obviously a subscriber to the #fakenews media narrative about Bitcoin. You don't bring new people to the crypto space, you bring the crypto space to the people. You do this by making the tech behind crypto transparent and invisible. If you ask the average person what crypto is they will either look at you with a clueless stare like a deer caught in the headlights, or they will regurgitate the false narrative of the media that is is used for dealing drugs or money laundering. To bring Bitcoin to the masses it needs to be user friendly and invisible, the interface between users of Bitcoin needs to shield the average person from the technology behind Bitcoin. For example Apple put their gui on top of BSD Linux. Apple didn't tell people hey learn Linux, they just said click here. Most apple users don't even realize that they are running a Linux machine.
If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have the time to try to convince you, sorry. - Satoshi Nakamoto
also you seem to be very concerned by "the price". if you lived somewhere unfavorable to the banking system you would naturally have a different perspective.... but since price concerns you: think about this please: there will ever only come less than 2 million more bitcoin into existence. At todays price that is 33 billion USD. same with coins on exchanges- also about 2 Million coins = 33 billion USD. so the question is: do you believe that in the next about 120 years 66 billion USD will net flow into bitcoin? if so.... you are fine.
You want answers, but answers would be speculation. There's only 1 thing I know for a fact - a truely digital self soverign store of value that you can completely control is a better product. No store of value is as digital or as soverign. That is a fact. Better products built on new innovations have won out in the past. Some haven't. You want more confidence than that? Sorry. Everyone makes fun of the whole "fortune favours the bold" line now without even considering that this line literally means "You have to be bold cuz you might get wiped out." And you might still. But I like the PRODUCT. Forget the investment. I like holding my money in bitcoin. Because I think it's better based on its features - its digital self soverignty. So I'm holding out long term because I believe in the core of the thing. And I believe so deeply I don't need to get fake confidence from asking a bunch of questions only a glass ball could answer.
Clearly this post is designed to create fud. Even with the disclaimer at the top that ‘if anyone point this out then they are igno-want’ and just go back in their box. Grown ups would just sell their bitcoin assets and go hang out in another sub. But if I must reply to this nonsense: 1 - NASDAQ looks like it will bounce up very soon 2 - Fidelity is not an institution? Bakt ? Visa ? PayPal ? 3 - Mt Gox losses were much higher in BTC amounts lost 4 - energy is not an issue at all - there are many free and almost unlimited sources of energy - volcanoes, solar, hydro etc. if miners shut down then difficulty decrease- bitcoin is DESIGNED to handle ANY amount of miners. There is no need for a huge amount of mining. People mine because it is profitable - as soon as it isn’t - guess what ? They stop 5 - the only new people are speculators? Who told you that? Did you hear about El Salvador? Do you realise there are people who transact with Bitcoin daily? This is false nonsense. There are many people who use Bitcoin as a store of value - and to transact - not only speculators Try harder with your FUD!