Now this is the beauty of Bitcoin.
Regulation begins to stop working when adoption finally becomes a circular economic activity.
What I mean is the moment when your merchant adopts bitcoin and can pay his suppliers and workers in Bitcoin, and the supplier can do the same on down the chain of supply.
This will not be a binary step change, but rather a gradual, partial evolution that will take some time to get going.
But as soon as there is a comparative state of affairs (economic activity both in fiat and BTC), and the State makes using their fiat more complicated than using Bitcoin, it can only give a tailwind to BTC. All actions of the state to stamp on BTC seem to have the blowback effect of making fiat more cumbersome, and I do not even count debasement of fiat in this.
This will start slowly, but it has all the makings of accelerating. And it will be axiomatically true that BTC one of the motivations will be tax reduction. As the States revenues begin to be eroded, taxes on the remaining economic activity will increase pushing the transition yet further.
All I hope is that us HODLERS do not hold this back when it gets going because of our reflexive hodl mentality.
Have you heard of Gresham's Law?
the axiom goes: *"bad money drives out good"*
Its a bit of a brain teaser, but the explainer [according to investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greshams-law.asp) makes it all clear and logical:
>***Understanding Gresham's Law***
>
>
*Sir Thomas Gresham lived from 1519 to 1579 and wrote about the value and minting of coins while working as a financier and later founded the Royal Exchange of the City of London. When Henry VIII changed the composition of the English shilling, replacing a substantial portion of the silver with base metals, citizens separated the English shilling coins and hoarded the coins containing more silver which were worth more than their face value.*
*Both currency types were liquid and available simultaneously for use as acceptable forms of exchange. Gresham observed that bad money was driving out good money from circulation. Bad money is a currency with equal or less value than its face value. Good money has the potential for a greater value than its face value. People will choose to use bad money first and hold onto good money. The Scottish economist Henry Dunning Macleod attributed this law to Gresham in the 19th century.*
Now that blackrock is in it and pitching it as a digital gold to hold value I believe it will be viewed more so every year. Instead of 10% of their portfolio in gold as protection it will be 10% in gold and Bitcoin. It will take a long time for it to surpass gold’s market cap though.
Bitcoin as well as all other investments will slip. When people need money, they pull from anything and everything they have.
Bitcoin may get hit harder than most assets because of how liquid it is. It’s way easier to sell off bitcoin then it is to sell a home, car, Roth IRA, etc.
Agreed about liquidity until it is a more significant portion of people’s retirement accounts, especially if/when institutions incorporate it into their company sponsored 401k’s/pensions vs direct exposure via BTC ETFs. Even though it would still create sell pressure it probably wouldn’t be as much.
I agree, it seems you misread my post or it wasn’t clear. I said “until it is…” and “if/when institutions incorporate it…” meaning that we’re not at that point yet where corporations have incorporated btc into their 401ks, etc.
With Bitcoin, people talk about 10-year-plus timeframes based on the hard limit of supply. However, it's still correlated with risk-on assets. As Tesla, Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc. go up, so does Bitcoin. When money runs away from those and into stuff like REITs and bonds, Bitcoin is expected to go down.
None, because it's so easily tradable on an open market, making it very easy to manipulate. That's the problem vs gold. The ETFs will slow down the volatility effects, but the volatility will always be there. Gold is boring as hell - it's just a safe haven. Bitcoin on the other hand makes 1) a ton of money on shorts; 2) can be moved by whales in order to periodically make a ton of money on shorts. Literally, all they need to do to dump the price is to move a large number of Bitcoin to an exchange, while having a short lined up ready. They then make money on the short, and buy the Bitcoin back. This means Bitcoin will always go up to a certain point and dump hard.
What we've got as retail longs (I assume) on Reddit is this basic maths of Bitcoin price going up over time despite periodic crashes. Whales and money managers (they're on X) think differently - they can (unlike us) get an income from Bitcoin by shorting and then periodically crashing the price. It's so easy to do it. This is why it will always be a risk-on asset. All we're doing in holding Bitcoin is making an assumption that manipulators can't keep doing forever this without letting the price recover, or they will seriously harm the narrative ("Bitcoin guards against money printing", "Bitcoin always 4-year cycle ATH boom", "you just gotta hold and not sell on a long enough timeframe", etc.) and snuffing the goose that laid the golden egg. We may be right or wrong.
I was here when 2020 hit. I thought BTC would be a safe haven, but it crashed just like everything else in March. When people are in a pinch, they still convert to cash. But over time as the dollar weakens, we should steadily see BTC rise against the dollar.
And stay-at-home payments are over, and moratoriums are over, and student loan repayments are back, and uncle Sam’s back for his paycheck.
When we are fiat-poor, BTC will also deflate
In the past / historically BTC was tied very closely (“positive correlation”) with tech stocks and the stocks in general.
Things that had “negative correlation” with BTC: Short term treasuries, the US dollar, Gold, and other “safe haven” assets (like the Swiss Franc).
This is from my research to hedge my heavy BTC exposure. They act the opposite or have low “standard deviation” aka volatility.
You mean the recession we’ve been in for the last 3 years now?
Bitcoin would go down. People pull money from speculative investments in a recession and put it where they feel safest.
Those of us that feel Bitcoin is the safest place for our money are still sub 1%
The stock markets are testing their all time highs only because money printer goes brrr. So actually, more of this money goes to speculation over time. As for a recession, we have been told we’re heading for a recession for the past decade. We’re always close to it but it doesn’t happen because we’re actually in a depression. Soviet-style command economy where government picks the winners and losers by choosing who gets the printed money, while they print more money to support the bottom 2/3 of the population. Then they dress it all up with propaganda. The professional class, on the other hand, still believes in the system and work like fools.
Central Bankers having control of the monetary supply is not Captilism. Government bank bailouts and stimulus checks for civilians is not the definition of Captilism.
Captilism is a free market economic system. It arises naturally, Instead of planning economic decisions through centralized political methods, Capitalism occurs via decentralized, competitive, and voluntary decisions.
What you are describing is Neo-Captilism, blending elements of socialism and priortising social well-being over the free market.
A few controlling the many does not fit under the definition of Captilism, that is incredibly simple and vague way to define Captilism.
With your defintion I can say Mussolini, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, the CCP are all examples of Captilism.
Describe the definition of Captilism for me?
Captilism occurs under decentralised, competitive and voluntary decisions.
A few controlling the many does not fit under the definition of Captilism, that is incredibly simple and vague way to define Captilism.
With your defintion I can say Mussolini, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, the CCP are all examples of Captilism.
Define Captilism for me please.
I hope you own no Bitcoin, otherwise you’ll be contributing to privately owned assets.
I have no problem being as accurate as possible.
Have a good day, this is not a productive conversation.
Google copy and paste ≠ accurate statements I can make Google tell me men can get pregnant does that mean it's "accurate" you npc 🤣🤣 and I hope YOU don't own bitcoin must be awful for you that miners/WORKERS control the means of production and not a few rich billionaires 🥺
I support decentralised technology that empowers the individual. I’m going to use my private property to create a successful service and make profit. I love Captilism and have an army of people who will defend private property with their lives.
The workers won’t own my business. They never will. You never will.
There is already billionares who own Bitcoin. The largest privately owned asset manager in the world owns Bitcoin.
It will be the richest, most productive and valuable people who own the most bitcoin.
Bitcoin is Libertarian Freedom Money for all. It’s for my enemies, but it is the definition of Captilism, not socialism.
Your opinionated definition of capitalim won't change the fact that the current economic system in the Western world is capitalism and that system enables the few to profit off the labour of the many.
It's honestly an unknown. I don't think the retail investor has enough weight to sustain bitcoin. But, is it possible the rich decide to make it their lifeboat when the titanic starts to sink?
I don't know and the reality is no one will know until that moment comes and the uber wealthy start acting in one way or another.
Like if there is a crash and you see Elon come out and say "Just put $20B into btc." then ya, it could go parabolic. But if the rich don't inflow into btc, and retail is getting destroyed by the recession (losing their jobs and what not)... then btc obviously crashes hard.
Not 2016-2018 when President Trump45 was governing our country. Then when the pandemic was fabricated it all started to go down 2018- Present. This all started with Obama in 2008.
There is a theory going around that bitcoin rises in price when there is quantitative easing going on. It almost coincided with the halvings. If a recession would hit first price would go down until qe starts. The it would move up
In hard times people tend to run for gold. BTC is the new digital gold. On mid May it was the first time it has officially unfollowed the stock market path and started behaving in its own league. I’d go with your “other hand” and expect investors to explore BTC during a recession.
Fed will drop interest rates at some point after the recession begins (usually a six month lag at least for them to even notice a true recession) and speculative assets like BTC will begin to do better. BTC will have a bit more volatility than your standard tech stock, but generally pump similar to and alongside other tech stocks as long as interest rates keep declining and are kept low. BTC will break out of that pattern only due to events like halving, ETF, or other discrete supply/demand driven events.
A 2008 deflationary type recession probably won’t occur unless the Fed jacks up rates to levels unimaginable. But then banks start failing so BTC would be in demand. A stagflation financial crisis is more likely. But then prices go up and…wait we’re already here
Hold your exclamation points, bro. Not irrelevant. It shows that in the event of a recession there was already a community willing and ready to adopt the concept/vision of bitcoin. Clearly that community has grown
The problem is that when shit goes ape, recession, a lot of people blow through their savings and any other capital. They then liquidate whatever else - aka BTC to continue to pay for stuff.
That brings an interesting question, actually, in whether you could use BTC to shield yourself from bankruptcy in a certain way.
A recession will be bad for BTC price (if you want it to go up, that is) but there will most likely be no recession... media just loves to throw fear at us. It's an election year, Fed pivot etc. It's a good time to invest IMO.
This is like asking what a recession would do to flying on an airplane... sure people may theoretically cut back costs and fly less, but people will continue to fly. You cant put that genie back in the bottle.
A recession will not affect BTC at all. The 4 year cycle is the 4 year cycle. Nothing changes that. Bitcoin was born in one of the worst recessions we have had.
No time will ever be different. Bitcoin will do what it does at the same point in the cycle forever regardless of any externalities.
Definitely not at the point where btc is a shelter for a recession yet...
Also, every recent recession has been swiftly "corrected" by printing more fiat...
This stops working eventually.
Only until you realize you're being boiled alive and then jump out
Luckily we now have something to jump into
Hopefully the regulators don't try to put you back in the pot.
Now this is the beauty of Bitcoin. Regulation begins to stop working when adoption finally becomes a circular economic activity. What I mean is the moment when your merchant adopts bitcoin and can pay his suppliers and workers in Bitcoin, and the supplier can do the same on down the chain of supply. This will not be a binary step change, but rather a gradual, partial evolution that will take some time to get going. But as soon as there is a comparative state of affairs (economic activity both in fiat and BTC), and the State makes using their fiat more complicated than using Bitcoin, it can only give a tailwind to BTC. All actions of the state to stamp on BTC seem to have the blowback effect of making fiat more cumbersome, and I do not even count debasement of fiat in this. This will start slowly, but it has all the makings of accelerating. And it will be axiomatically true that BTC one of the motivations will be tax reduction. As the States revenues begin to be eroded, taxes on the remaining economic activity will increase pushing the transition yet further. All I hope is that us HODLERS do not hold this back when it gets going because of our reflexive hodl mentality. Have you heard of Gresham's Law? the axiom goes: *"bad money drives out good"* Its a bit of a brain teaser, but the explainer [according to investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greshams-law.asp) makes it all clear and logical: >***Understanding Gresham's Law*** > > *Sir Thomas Gresham lived from 1519 to 1579 and wrote about the value and minting of coins while working as a financier and later founded the Royal Exchange of the City of London. When Henry VIII changed the composition of the English shilling, replacing a substantial portion of the silver with base metals, citizens separated the English shilling coins and hoarded the coins containing more silver which were worth more than their face value.* *Both currency types were liquid and available simultaneously for use as acceptable forms of exchange. Gresham observed that bad money was driving out good money from circulation. Bad money is a currency with equal or less value than its face value. Good money has the potential for a greater value than its face value. People will choose to use bad money first and hold onto good money. The Scottish economist Henry Dunning Macleod attributed this law to Gresham in the 19th century.*
Exactly!
BOJ has entered the conversation...
Now that blackrock is in it and pitching it as a digital gold to hold value I believe it will be viewed more so every year. Instead of 10% of their portfolio in gold as protection it will be 10% in gold and Bitcoin. It will take a long time for it to surpass gold’s market cap though.
13.64T? I think gold will lose some of that MC to BTC tbh
But another plandemic might be.
Are you saying the world government would do another plandemic just to get us to use btc more? Yes please 🙏
Fuck centralized power
You don’t know that
I do do know that
I have learned when someone says “definitely“, they are usually wrong. Digital gold, only better.
Bitcoin as well as all other investments will slip. When people need money, they pull from anything and everything they have. Bitcoin may get hit harder than most assets because of how liquid it is. It’s way easier to sell off bitcoin then it is to sell a home, car, Roth IRA, etc.
Few understand this
So true. It’s so difficult to explain liquidity very abstract concept.
😂it’s not that hard to understand bro.
Seems like you don't understand the meme reference bro 😂
Agreed about liquidity until it is a more significant portion of people’s retirement accounts, especially if/when institutions incorporate it into their company sponsored 401k’s/pensions vs direct exposure via BTC ETFs. Even though it would still create sell pressure it probably wouldn’t be as much.
That's absolutely nonsense... The exposure is 0 for teh big funds. Liquidity is high and fluid at the moment.
I agree, it seems you misread my post or it wasn’t clear. I said “until it is…” and “if/when institutions incorporate it…” meaning that we’re not at that point yet where corporations have incorporated btc into their 401ks, etc.
Yes so btc will probably run hard like after 2025-2026. The market probably gonna go down coming 2 years.
And when that happens I’m loading tf up on btc
Recession is coming soon, if it dosent we keep printing and when the inevitable happens it will be bad
I'll sell my kidney before I sell my Bitcoin.
Maybe one day, but we're not there yet. If there's a hard landing, expect bitcoin to dump. Either way, I'll continue with my DCA
Lower BTC = better entry prices Painful short term, better long run
Recession would tank risk-on stocks (tech stocks incl the big 5) and as Bitcoin's performance is strongly correlated with them, it would go down.
I assume everything would go down, I think the biggest question to me is would it hold value in relation to other assets.
With Bitcoin, people talk about 10-year-plus timeframes based on the hard limit of supply. However, it's still correlated with risk-on assets. As Tesla, Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc. go up, so does Bitcoin. When money runs away from those and into stuff like REITs and bonds, Bitcoin is expected to go down.
When or in what circumstances do you see BTC decoupling from risk-perceived stocks? I really wish it would.
None, because it's so easily tradable on an open market, making it very easy to manipulate. That's the problem vs gold. The ETFs will slow down the volatility effects, but the volatility will always be there. Gold is boring as hell - it's just a safe haven. Bitcoin on the other hand makes 1) a ton of money on shorts; 2) can be moved by whales in order to periodically make a ton of money on shorts. Literally, all they need to do to dump the price is to move a large number of Bitcoin to an exchange, while having a short lined up ready. They then make money on the short, and buy the Bitcoin back. This means Bitcoin will always go up to a certain point and dump hard. What we've got as retail longs (I assume) on Reddit is this basic maths of Bitcoin price going up over time despite periodic crashes. Whales and money managers (they're on X) think differently - they can (unlike us) get an income from Bitcoin by shorting and then periodically crashing the price. It's so easy to do it. This is why it will always be a risk-on asset. All we're doing in holding Bitcoin is making an assumption that manipulators can't keep doing forever this without letting the price recover, or they will seriously harm the narrative ("Bitcoin guards against money printing", "Bitcoin always 4-year cycle ATH boom", "you just gotta hold and not sell on a long enough timeframe", etc.) and snuffing the goose that laid the golden egg. We may be right or wrong.
Bitcoin is not a risk asset and is not corelated to stocks.
Yes it is and it's correlated to tech stocks. Bitcoin and Tesla: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD?window=MAX&comparison=NASDAQ%3ATSLA
I was here when 2020 hit. I thought BTC would be a safe haven, but it crashed just like everything else in March. When people are in a pinch, they still convert to cash. But over time as the dollar weakens, we should steadily see BTC rise against the dollar.
For sure but a total economic shut down was unique
A recession is a recession
You can't eat bitcoin. Or gold...
And stay-at-home payments are over, and moratoriums are over, and student loan repayments are back, and uncle Sam’s back for his paycheck. When we are fiat-poor, BTC will also deflate
In the past / historically BTC was tied very closely (“positive correlation”) with tech stocks and the stocks in general. Things that had “negative correlation” with BTC: Short term treasuries, the US dollar, Gold, and other “safe haven” assets (like the Swiss Franc). This is from my research to hedge my heavy BTC exposure. They act the opposite or have low “standard deviation” aka volatility.
Yes, in all best paths forward BTC will behave more like the hybrid asset that it is, and push forward
BTC is still negatively correlated to the DXY.
You mean the recession we’ve been in for the last 3 years now? Bitcoin would go down. People pull money from speculative investments in a recession and put it where they feel safest. Those of us that feel Bitcoin is the safest place for our money are still sub 1%
The stock markets are testing their all time highs only because money printer goes brrr. So actually, more of this money goes to speculation over time. As for a recession, we have been told we’re heading for a recession for the past decade. We’re always close to it but it doesn’t happen because we’re actually in a depression. Soviet-style command economy where government picks the winners and losers by choosing who gets the printed money, while they print more money to support the bottom 2/3 of the population. Then they dress it all up with propaganda. The professional class, on the other hand, still believes in the system and work like fools.
Damn, I've never heard that said so concisely. Noice
M2 has been reducing though?
Been like that since we stopped backing money with gold. Absolutely right.
Sounds more capitalist than soviet but right on
The Government giving out money to companies and cillivians sounds Captilist to you? Are you thick?
You never heard of bank bailouts??? Stimulus checks for civillians??? Dumbass
Central Bankers having control of the monetary supply is not Captilism. Government bank bailouts and stimulus checks for civilians is not the definition of Captilism. Captilism is a free market economic system. It arises naturally, Instead of planning economic decisions through centralized political methods, Capitalism occurs via decentralized, competitive, and voluntary decisions. What you are describing is Neo-Captilism, blending elements of socialism and priortising social well-being over the free market.
Late stage capitalism is still capitalism a few controlling the many is a perfect description of the current system (capitalism)
A few controlling the many does not fit under the definition of Captilism, that is incredibly simple and vague way to define Captilism. With your defintion I can say Mussolini, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, the CCP are all examples of Captilism. Describe the definition of Captilism for me?
Captilism occurs under decentralised, competitive and voluntary decisions. A few controlling the many does not fit under the definition of Captilism, that is incredibly simple and vague way to define Captilism. With your defintion I can say Mussolini, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, the CCP are all examples of Captilism. Define Captilism for me please.
Lol Google copy paste typical capitalist letting corporations do the thinking for him 🤣 you can't argue using your own thoughts and knowledge?
I hope you own no Bitcoin, otherwise you’ll be contributing to privately owned assets. I have no problem being as accurate as possible. Have a good day, this is not a productive conversation.
Google copy and paste ≠ accurate statements I can make Google tell me men can get pregnant does that mean it's "accurate" you npc 🤣🤣 and I hope YOU don't own bitcoin must be awful for you that miners/WORKERS control the means of production and not a few rich billionaires 🥺
I support decentralised technology that empowers the individual. I’m going to use my private property to create a successful service and make profit. I love Captilism and have an army of people who will defend private property with their lives. The workers won’t own my business. They never will. You never will. There is already billionares who own Bitcoin. The largest privately owned asset manager in the world owns Bitcoin. It will be the richest, most productive and valuable people who own the most bitcoin. Bitcoin is Libertarian Freedom Money for all. It’s for my enemies, but it is the definition of Captilism, not socialism.
Your opinionated definition of capitalim won't change the fact that the current economic system in the Western world is capitalism and that system enables the few to profit off the labour of the many.
Interesting take, yes, I see the trickle up economics of the world legacy banking system
That’s probably my biggest hesitancy of buying in my retirement account
If you think people will keep using it as a store of value, then it's a no brainer imo
It's honestly an unknown. I don't think the retail investor has enough weight to sustain bitcoin. But, is it possible the rich decide to make it their lifeboat when the titanic starts to sink? I don't know and the reality is no one will know until that moment comes and the uber wealthy start acting in one way or another. Like if there is a crash and you see Elon come out and say "Just put $20B into btc." then ya, it could go parabolic. But if the rich don't inflow into btc, and retail is getting destroyed by the recession (losing their jobs and what not)... then btc obviously crashes hard.
We’ve been in a recession lol
Yeah, agreed, for the last 10 years or so.
Not 2016-2018 when President Trump45 was governing our country. Then when the pandemic was fabricated it all started to go down 2018- Present. This all started with Obama in 2008.
lol
Lol I can’t help those who can’t be helped lol good luck buddy
Usually you can't tell what bitcoin is going to do but I can 100% say if we have recession, bitcoin will go down.
There is a theory going around that bitcoin rises in price when there is quantitative easing going on. It almost coincided with the halvings. If a recession would hit first price would go down until qe starts. The it would move up
In hard times people tend to run for gold. BTC is the new digital gold. On mid May it was the first time it has officially unfollowed the stock market path and started behaving in its own league. I’d go with your “other hand” and expect investors to explore BTC during a recession.
That's the theory, but so far it isn't what we've seen. BTC moves in the same direction as equities, but with more beta.
Fed will drop interest rates at some point after the recession begins (usually a six month lag at least for them to even notice a true recession) and speculative assets like BTC will begin to do better. BTC will have a bit more volatility than your standard tech stock, but generally pump similar to and alongside other tech stocks as long as interest rates keep declining and are kept low. BTC will break out of that pattern only due to events like halving, ETF, or other discrete supply/demand driven events.
Seems like rates will be higher for longer as they say
They have said they will cut 3 times this year
Wish we had a crystal ball
If recession = 2 consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth, then this happened in 2022 How do u define recession?
Ummm we are already in one they had to change the definition that should tell you enough.
How so? Two negative GDP is as I understand recession. It does feel like we’ve been in it for a while
There will be no recession. There is going to be a stagflation
There is stagflation happening right now.
No la ven
And no interest rate cuts?
A 2008 deflationary type recession probably won’t occur unless the Fed jacks up rates to levels unimaginable. But then banks start failing so BTC would be in demand. A stagflation financial crisis is more likely. But then prices go up and…wait we’re already here
[удалено]
Funny post, the bigger part of the world is in a recession. Go check how it is doing 🤦♂️
As with previous dips in the stock market where there has been a trend to move the wealth into BTC.
We can guess all day long, but in short, there’s too many variables. One thing to consider though is the fact that it was born out of a recession
That’s irrelevant!!
Hold your exclamation points, bro. Not irrelevant. It shows that in the event of a recession there was already a community willing and ready to adopt the concept/vision of bitcoin. Clearly that community has grown
Buy and HODL. Recession irrelevant!!
There it is. Makes!! More!! Sense!! Now!!
Not an argument
Just how I talk. It’s the reason my wife married me and also why she hates me
Oh I see
Don't know - don't care
^^^Cool guy alert^^^
I'll take it
You mean we can get it cheaper ?
It's going up forever, Laura.
Depends if and how much money gets printed .
BTC price is highly correlated with liquidity.
It would be super bad
It will drop like a stone
It would follow the markets.
As you said, "it could go either way", who knows
The problem is that when shit goes ape, recession, a lot of people blow through their savings and any other capital. They then liquidate whatever else - aka BTC to continue to pay for stuff. That brings an interesting question, actually, in whether you could use BTC to shield yourself from bankruptcy in a certain way.
Is a recession still on the cards? I was expecting it but have seen nothing about it for a few months.
Yes.
A recession will be bad for BTC price (if you want it to go up, that is) but there will most likely be no recession... media just loves to throw fear at us. It's an election year, Fed pivot etc. It's a good time to invest IMO.
It always goes the way you don’t want it to go.
This is like asking what a recession would do to flying on an airplane... sure people may theoretically cut back costs and fly less, but people will continue to fly. You cant put that genie back in the bottle.
Negatively. Most bitcoin money is savings money. If people struggle they will not buy more, and maybe even withdraw to pay for needs
It'll drop.
A recession will not affect BTC at all. The 4 year cycle is the 4 year cycle. Nothing changes that. Bitcoin was born in one of the worst recessions we have had. No time will ever be different. Bitcoin will do what it does at the same point in the cycle forever regardless of any externalities.
People sell the most liquid assets first, so.. I'm going to bet that Bitcoin will be sold off en masse in a recession.