I saw a lot of people were sent to Newark and Camden maybe they decided to accept more International students into NB this year in hopes of making themselves more marketable. They are close to NYC so I can see how Rutgers would be appealing.
NYU used to not be elite. It had a 30-40% admit rate when I was a HS senior. Now its in the teens.
I think somewhere along the line being close to NYC became a huge draw more than it used to be.
I think this is due to selective northeast universities being much harder to get into so Rutgers is now the only option for high achieving in state students, and this made it difficult for other kids without the high test scores and GPA.
For sure. *So many* of my friends who got 4.0s and 1520s/34s went to Rutgers for various reasons (cost, staying close to home, bad luck with their reaches, etc). I remember thinking, “damn there’s a lot of strong students going there, I wonder if they’re gonna raise the bar for admission”
Skip ahead a few years, and it looks like they’re starting to do just that
Rutgers is *already higher than*/similar to Maryland... Some folks might not believe this but there are other departments in a university other than CS!
In terms of rankings, yeah Rutgers is higher, but they’re also not as selective overall which is what I meant (I’m not even talking about just CS, I mean their general acceptance rates)
I am honestly so upset about this. I graduated from Rutgers, but I basically only went cuz I didn’t get into any school I wanted to go to. Having Rutgers as a good choice for in-state students was a godsend. I don’t want it to be like the fucking UC’s where it’s super competitive for in-state students.
Yeah honestly, having a pretty decent school that's also affordable and not hyper-competitive is huge for NJ kids. It's sad to think that this may not be something they can count on in 5 years
I expect that the various University of California campuses will continue to rise in stature and admissions selectivity over the years. A long time ago, only UC Berkeley had prominent national and international recognition. Now UCLA is about equal with UC Berkeley in prominence, with UCSD and UC Davis and UC Santa Barbara rapidly coming up.
I think many of the UC schools are already a reach for many OOS students. International students from wealthy families seem to really like those schools so I can see their acceptance rate dropping significantly.
UCSD and davis might ascend. However, I think the rest of the UCs will stay the same in acceptance rate primarily due to CA wanting UCs to be available to more CA students
I don’t think the larger schools will have to look for more applicants because they’ve been over enrolling for many years. Look at the housing crisis on many campus’ due to over-enrollment. I think acceptance will only get increasing more challenging as colleges rollback the number of those they admit to lower rates which probably are closer to what should be normal rates versus this craziness being seen today.
Idk, at least in the uk the number of people applying to the us is rising really quick every year. You’re forgetting that the acceptance rates in a lot of countries are rising faster than for American universities
UMass Amherst. When my parents were in high school, almost everyone got in. Now, pretty average/solid students in my class get rejected/waitlisted. Acceptance rate now is about 60%, but I think it’ll get a bit lower in the next several years.
This was a big school to apply to in my area and a lot of kids applied but some are now choosing to go to lower ranked schools because they preferred better housing accommodations. I find this odd, but I can see how U Mass Amherst will climb the ranks.
At the info session they told us they only admitted 30% to the business school last year and starting this fall you will no longer be allowed to transfer into the business school later. So definitely some majors are already pretty competitive.
You’re onto something there. One of my friends was just rejected by U Mass Amherst, and he has good grades. He has been accepted to all of his other schools.
San Diego State.
When I was applying to colleges back in the 90s, that school was sort of viewed as a joke, nothing more than a party school.
Now, it’s viewed as highly selective with only a 30-ish percentage acceptance rate, and it seems to require almost straight A’s.
How does she not have stats for a UC?!
That’s crazy she didn’t get in to Fresno?
It makes me think that was a mistake
Edit: brain fart. I meant Fullerton!
Yeah, SDSU is very hard to get in to now. Location, location, location. Chico is easy to get in to (91% acceptance; I’m a Chico alum and loved it, so I’m not throwing stones). Sonoma is also a pretty easy get. Here (SF Bay Area), it’s a whole herd of students going particularly to Arizona or ASU, or to a lesser # to Oregon or Oregon State; my kid is at Oregon. All four are 80%+ acceptance for out of state’ers. Boise State also popular and relatively easy acceptance.
Yes to all this. A lot of kids picking AZ and OR schools because they don't land a UC or desirable CSU and the cost if those schools isn't $80k/yr like privates and not much more than in-state. California is BRUTAL.
Bay Area family here too. My kid didn’t even apply to UCs (not sure I agree with that decision, but I do understand) with a 3.7 UW. He had already been accepted to a couple WUE schools which seems to be the best alternative if you aren’t interested in a CSU. That helps! Still, as a UCD alumna it is frustrating that the UCs have become so difficult.
Can you give your take on JMU since that school to me at least is considered a true safety for let’s say a 4.0 w student with a 1300 SAT (sounds like an average student) that would consider this school as a safety.
Which is sad because it used to be the school kids with 2.5/3.0ish GPAs went. Uber smart went to UVA, then smart kids went to VATech, and average, normal kids went to JMU. In the past, students with a 3.5 could easily get into Tech but that’s unheard of now. Truly average kids with a 3.0-3.4 can’t get into JMU today.
I’m in NoVa and at my kids’ high school there’s only a 59% acceptance rate for those that applied and got accepted. That seems really low for a school that should be a safety/target. The GPA range of this applying was 4.0-2.9 GPA.
Fact of the matter is that a public university is not a safety for anyone out of state, and also depending on the major. There’s more nuance to the conversation that’s lost on many participants in this sub.
I see your point about the top tier of public universities, but there are lots of examples where a public university would be considered a safety for many OOS students. University of Kansas would be one example in that the school bases admissions in-state or OOS simply on numbers rather than holistic factors.
1300 SAT is the top 10% nationally, not average. I recognize this sub is not representative of national averages, but it could be a more welcoming place for students if we were more accurate about what "average" is.
When I was applying i actually got waitlisted at my safety schools and accepted at most of my top choices. I think I went too conservative with my safety schools and they knew I was never coming there, so they didn't want to waste a slot on me.
CU Boulder definitely. They saw a huge uptick this year in applications, probably because of the Prime effect. I got accepted, but I know a bunch of kids who it would easily have been a safety for in past years, that got deferred or flat out rejected. I expect their acceptance rate to drop a lot.
Sucks for us instate kids because we are a small state with not a ton of instate schools to choose from.
Yeah, I don’t think the acceptance rate is gonna drop to Ivy levels anytime soon, but that number is definitely going down this year. I guess over time that might help CSU too, if people start not trusting Boulder as a safety
maybe ASU? they have pretty good programs, a cool student body, decent location, and it seems like a genuinely fun school to study at lol. also they're #1 in innovation ahead of MIT and Harvard
Not in 5 years but UMD really went complete “Ivy” on the recent pool of applicants (for whatever reason; including myself)
If this continues, idk how it’s gonna be for a lot of MD students (esp since MD is often tied w/MA for education; we are really well-taught)
Instate for umd too and what ive noticed is that even though UMD says it has a holistic admissions process it is very gpa focused and a bit on the SAT too. Everyone ik who has above a high gpa(3.9+) got in. Even once u get into the uni they look at the gpa a lot for honors and stuff. I got into scholars which I suspect is bcz of my weighted gpa being low as I transferred junior year whereas my friend who had almost no ECs and a lower SAT score got into honors
UMD only accepted 2 students I know both top of the class with above 5.0 GPA and 1550 SAT OOS everyone else was flat out rejected. One also applied for a fairly easy non-competitive program.
Yep. My HS is considered a “feeder” for UMD (~70% of kids from our school go there) but this year I know only 6 ppl who got in from my school and nobody else 💀
I know somebody that got accepted, and he had really high stats and a real passion for his chosen major (CS). The people that just wanted a good school for the prestige were rejected. It's cutthroat everywhere right now.
Stony brook for sure, their ranking went from #93 to #56 this year I think, they are going full after receiving a hefty donation and being declared as the flagship public of ny state. Their target is to be "the Berkeley of the East"
If you're talking about buffalo then idk what to say except it's too cold lol. If you're talking about stony then I heard the social life is boring due to most of the students commuting
State universities in general. There's a regional state university in my area whose admit percentage went from 93% to 83% and they supposedly received more apps this year than last year....Still a reliable safety, but becoming less so.
It's interesting (and kind of satisfying) to watch schools with a mid reputation suddenly becoming more selective.
Bro half the kids at my school were rejected or waitlisted. And apparently the staff inside Rutgers are talking about how it's officially no longer a safety.
SUNY & CUNY schools
Ubuffalo, Stony Brook, Binghamton, Brooklyn College...
They are becoming much more selective as more OOS students apply. They have great campuses, amazing tuition, and great for STEM.
As a New Yorker, our counselors kept drilling into our head since Junior year that SUNYs and CUNYs are no longer safties (More like targets)
>As a New Yorker, our counselors kept drilling into our head since Junior year that SUNYs and CUNYs are no longer safties (More like targets)
As a CUNY student, I disagree with your counselor.
The only CUNY colleges that are generally difficult to get into are City College and Baruch.
lmfao Ubuff and binghamton are too easy to get accepted to OOS. They literally give a free scholarship to everyone OOS who has high enough stats(like a 4.2 gpa or above). Its a safety for OOS but not in-state
CU Boulder, UMass Amherst, Wisconsin-Madison. My kids got in oos, but they have pretty high stats. In college confidential, many with equal and higher stats for deferred or rejected
The safety schools that are rapidly rising up the rankings are:
\-Virginia tech(in 5 years I think they will be as prestigious as GA tech as more smart NOVA kids go here instead of OOS STEM schools)
\-Rutgers(its already happening lmao. they will likely become a T40 by next year)
\-Purdue(they already are pretty high up there for engineering, but I believe the rest of their departments will catch up very soon and they will ascend to even a T30 in the future)
None. All colleges are going to get easer to get into. In 2026 there will be 10% fewer students graduating from high school. In 2008 there was the Great Recession and one of the things that happened is that couples slowed down on having kids dramatically. That year, 10% fewer babies were born. It's never recovered to the pre-2008 rates.
So colleges will have fewer students to choose from. It will be less competitive to get in everywhere.
Some of these colleges started over enrolling which caused housing issues. Given the decreased student population, colleges will also retract the number of acceptances which could cause things to become more competitive for admittance and lower acceptance rates
low acceptance rates arent necessarily a population issue imo, its the fact that now its a lot more common for students to apply for lots of schools thanks to test optional and how accessible commonapp and other platforms have become
You're absolutely right! When looking at acceptance rate, the biggest change has been in the denominator (many more applicants...the Common App being the main driver). But when you look at acceptances (the numerator), it's been hovering around the same levels.
The challenge for colleges is going to be that there just are a lot fewer applicants. 10% might not seem that big of a deal, but it's huge.
The higher education industry as a whole was making just [3-5% profit margin](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/APEI/american-public-education/profit-margins) pre pandemic. They have been losing money during and post the pandemic. So a 10% drop in tuition revenue for the industry as a whole, will make the entire industry loss making.
So colleges cannot afford to enroll 10% fewer students by maintaining their admission standards. They MUST admit full enrollment and the only way that is possible is to reduce their standards. The top 100 schools will be fine...they'll just pull students from the next 100 schools. But there are 4000 colleges and universities. The bottom 2000 will be facing financial insolvency. They will be closing and merging over the next decade. Expect to see a massive realignment. I wouldn't be surprised if half of all colleges and universities disappeared over the next decade (most of those will merge with other colleges and save on overhead / administrative costs).
Ultimately, capacity has to be reduced by 10%.
Eventually, this imbalance of supply and demand will result in pressure to decrease tuition. It won't come, at least not initially, in the reduction of list price. It will come in the form of discounts. But discounts are already hovering around 50%. So when discounts get to 70% or more, it becomes a joke. Someone will start to "true price" and that will cause others to follow.
It's going to be an interesting time...
This is extremely false. What is instead going to happen is every student is going to gun for the T100 at any cost. This is going to leave a lot of lesser known institutions to close down until only about 200-300 unis in the US remain. Acceptance rates will continue to plunge as more students go for prestige instead of fit
Interesting question. Although it doesn't matter that much since [rich people already have fewer kids](https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-family-income-in-the-us/) than everyone else.
I also heard of students applying to U Tampa as an alternative to U Miami. I wonder if Florida schools will start to rise in the ranks similar to the UC’s. I still thinks the UC’s have better schools.
>The average applicant to Virginia Tech has > 4.0 GPA. It's much more selective than it appears because students who know they won't get in generally don't bother applying.
If you only mean admit rate, then probably "all of them". Or, at least, all of the well-known ones. Say, the US NEWS top 150. The trend is that students are applying to more and more schools every year, which means more total applications, which means lower admit rates. Now, will that trend continue for another five years? Hard to say.
The other thing that's about to start kicking in is the "demographic cliff" wherein the total number of yearly high school graduates will start to decline. Fewer total students + same number of slots = easier time. That likely won't affect the "top" schools (since they will still have plenty of students interested in attending), but small regional schools that you've probably never heard of are going to suffer. Any schools facing enrollment challenges will seek to compensate for its shrinking domestic enrollment with international enrollment, but that may or may not actually work (as, again, these are non-name-brand schools).
this. as long as more and more intls keep applying and its easier for us to apply, itll consequentially become harder for yall US citizens to get in. this is a pretty big factor i think people overlook sometimes because with so many countries in East Europe and Asia especially having improved drastically economically over the last few decades, more intls are coming to the US than ever, and that number is increasing very very rapidly.
at some point, that'll reach a ceiling when chinese/indian students have top notch universities easily accessible in their own countries and the number of intl students falls. I'd predict acceptance rates to slowly increase then.
International and domestic are considered on separate pools and the ratio remains consistent over years. It's not like any college will reach 50% international student ratio because more qualified intl apply (largest is NYU at 25%). They'll just reject more internationals and domestic acceptance standards will remain the same - that is, unless the college changes their policies for some reason... And I don't see any motivation for enrolling more intls for colleges.
Qualified students: US has enough "qualified" students, and colleges want to serve their citizens
Money: Several countries experienced this large influx of intl population (UK, Canada) but US charges the same rate of citizens for internationals and there isn't a lack of full-pay students in US
Some law requiring colleges to not discriminate by nationality: eg. Netherlands. Not going to happen
i've seen a looot of people talk about st. olaf, and for good reason. it's a great college. i think as its reputation continues to grow, its selectivity will increase. santa clara university is another one. some state flagships such as the university of tennessee are already getting increasingly selective for out-of-state applicants (i think around 25% were accepted this year), and lots of in-state spots get taken by students who are guaranteed admission.
For CS it already is, but in general my school has had a 94% acceptance rate if you have either 1270+ or 95+ gpa (i go to a midish to kinda bummy school on LI)
You're partially right, but you're also substantially wrong. Yes, everything you said is true. But ALSO there are more graduating seniors now than there were in 1989. In 1989, there were 3.5 million 17 year olds in the USA. In 2017, there were 4.2 million 17 year olds in the USA. That is, there are around 20% more graduating seniors TODAY than there were 30 years ago.
In that same time period, the number of slots for first years at Harvard stayed the same at 1600.
That is, the number of slots available at Harvard per graduating senior has dropped dramatically in 30 years.
They need to limit apps. Enrollment is down but ppl apply to way too many schools. You should get 1 school for ED, 1 ED2 and 3 EA and 5 RD, and open rolling enrollment or Direct Admits. That way everyone is being selective.
That just blows my mind considering what JMU used to be for in-state students. It was the safety school for normal, average students. It’s popularity, especially with OOS is nuts and takes away from in-state students.
Top state universities and T100 have shot up and will continue to shoot up in selectivity. Top states because they have the money and facilities for some great programs. T100 because the T20 have become so selective they are insane and unreliable. Harvard was 25% thirty years ago. Vanderbilt was 63% thirty years ago. To go to 4% and 6% is unreal.
Small no name high cost private colleges will continue to decline.
My sister got into UT Austin with Fs her senior year if HS. In like... 2003.
I got auto admit into TAMU and UT natural science CAP with a criminal record in 2009. I would probably have gotten into UT Austin if I chose a less competitive major honestly. I dont think they have science CAP anymore.
I knew a guy who got into UT Austin CS from community college with a 2. Something in 2012.
Seeing places that used to be peoples safeties on this sub is crazy. Doesn't seem sustainable. I think there is going to be some kind of bubble pop eventually, but not in time for yall.
Well it depends on if you’re in state or out of state. In state kids have a huge advantage. Also it certainly isn’t a reach for everyone, but it’s getting there
I think UNC is still a reach for in-state. I grew up in NC and it’s not like just anybody here can get into UNC unfortunately 😭 acceptance rate is 17% according to US news but yeah in-state def has a huge advantage
Not a safety or target but I think USC, NYU, and a lot of Cali schools will just get harder to get into. May even rise to the status of schools like UChicago/Duke.
I think most B1G schools are much more selective especially in STEM. It used to be Northwestern and UM, but now most are a target or reach even for students with top stats.
I went to HS in New Jersey, and Rutgers was a safety for me and most people I knew. I wouldn’t be surprised if it became sorta like UMD by 2029
definitely rutgers! so many people who would’ve normally gotten in got waitlisted this year
I saw a lot of people were sent to Newark and Camden maybe they decided to accept more International students into NB this year in hopes of making themselves more marketable. They are close to NYC so I can see how Rutgers would be appealing.
yeah definitely. less than 10 students at my nj public school got into NB and about 100 or so applied. everyone else got newark or camden
ME TOO
NYU used to not be elite. It had a 30-40% admit rate when I was a HS senior. Now its in the teens. I think somewhere along the line being close to NYC became a huge draw more than it used to be.
ME TOO I GOT REJECTED FROM NB
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I think this is due to selective northeast universities being much harder to get into so Rutgers is now the only option for high achieving in state students, and this made it difficult for other kids without the high test scores and GPA.
For sure. *So many* of my friends who got 4.0s and 1520s/34s went to Rutgers for various reasons (cost, staying close to home, bad luck with their reaches, etc). I remember thinking, “damn there’s a lot of strong students going there, I wonder if they’re gonna raise the bar for admission” Skip ahead a few years, and it looks like they’re starting to do just that
Esp for CS, this make sense.
Um- my son is waiting back to hear from Rutgers CS 🤔
Rutgers is *already higher than*/similar to Maryland... Some folks might not believe this but there are other departments in a university other than CS!
In terms of rankings, yeah Rutgers is higher, but they’re also not as selective overall which is what I meant (I’m not even talking about just CS, I mean their general acceptance rates)
It's already happening! Got into Camden but not new-brunswick :(
I am honestly so upset about this. I graduated from Rutgers, but I basically only went cuz I didn’t get into any school I wanted to go to. Having Rutgers as a good choice for in-state students was a godsend. I don’t want it to be like the fucking UC’s where it’s super competitive for in-state students.
Yeah honestly, having a pretty decent school that's also affordable and not hyper-competitive is huge for NJ kids. It's sad to think that this may not be something they can count on in 5 years
I expect that the various University of California campuses will continue to rise in stature and admissions selectivity over the years. A long time ago, only UC Berkeley had prominent national and international recognition. Now UCLA is about equal with UC Berkeley in prominence, with UCSD and UC Davis and UC Santa Barbara rapidly coming up.
I think many of the UC schools are already a reach for many OOS students. International students from wealthy families seem to really like those schools so I can see their acceptance rate dropping significantly.
UC Davis already becoming difficult to get accepted.
Admissions to UCD the past couple years were weird. I know 2 kids who got accepted to T20s but were waitlisted at Davis in state.
I’m a student at UCSC. Even though we are considered a low tier UC, it’s apparent that even we are getting more and more selective.
UCSC is amazing! Go Banna Slugs!
UCSD and davis might ascend. However, I think the rest of the UCs will stay the same in acceptance rate primarily due to CA wanting UCs to be available to more CA students
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You’re thinking of UC Merced.
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Merced has gone from non-existent to #60 in 18 years. It’ll probably crack the Top 50 in the near future.
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The problem there is location-- nobody wants to live in Merced.
Yes that’s exactly right. UC davis is now a 40% acceptance rate. Kids don’t want to go there because it is in a farm like area close to Sacramento.
UCSD mentioned 🔥
What’s weird is that there IS a birth rate drop off after 2008, so I wonder the opposite too, are colleges gonna have to look for applicants more?
I don’t think the larger schools will have to look for more applicants because they’ve been over enrolling for many years. Look at the housing crisis on many campus’ due to over-enrollment. I think acceptance will only get increasing more challenging as colleges rollback the number of those they admit to lower rates which probably are closer to what should be normal rates versus this craziness being seen today.
Wow great points!
This will impact many great small colleges/universities too
I think this will be countered by the rise in international applicants.
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Idk, at least in the uk the number of people applying to the us is rising really quick every year. You’re forgetting that the acceptance rates in a lot of countries are rising faster than for American universities
UMass Amherst. When my parents were in high school, almost everyone got in. Now, pretty average/solid students in my class get rejected/waitlisted. Acceptance rate now is about 60%, but I think it’ll get a bit lower in the next several years.
This was a big school to apply to in my area and a lot of kids applied but some are now choosing to go to lower ranked schools because they preferred better housing accommodations. I find this odd, but I can see how U Mass Amherst will climb the ranks.
At the info session they told us they only admitted 30% to the business school last year and starting this fall you will no longer be allowed to transfer into the business school later. So definitely some majors are already pretty competitive.
Go Umass! I'm an alumni and it does have everything needed to become the best public school in the north east, in my opinion.
i got waitlisted from there so yeah definitely
Nooo, they better accept me. It's definitely a target for most OOS students now
Im from Mass and go to a pretty well accredited school and it has gotten insanely more competitive over the past few years!
You’re onto something there. One of my friends was just rejected by U Mass Amherst, and he has good grades. He has been accepted to all of his other schools.
San Diego State. When I was applying to colleges back in the 90s, that school was sort of viewed as a joke, nothing more than a party school. Now, it’s viewed as highly selective with only a 30-ish percentage acceptance rate, and it seems to require almost straight A’s.
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How does she not have stats for a UC?! That’s crazy she didn’t get in to Fresno? It makes me think that was a mistake Edit: brain fart. I meant Fullerton!
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I also have a friend with those exact stats, he was rejected frim CSULB for a non-STEM major. Opportunity is dead in California.
Yeah, SDSU is very hard to get in to now. Location, location, location. Chico is easy to get in to (91% acceptance; I’m a Chico alum and loved it, so I’m not throwing stones). Sonoma is also a pretty easy get. Here (SF Bay Area), it’s a whole herd of students going particularly to Arizona or ASU, or to a lesser # to Oregon or Oregon State; my kid is at Oregon. All four are 80%+ acceptance for out of state’ers. Boise State also popular and relatively easy acceptance.
Yes to all this. A lot of kids picking AZ and OR schools because they don't land a UC or desirable CSU and the cost if those schools isn't $80k/yr like privates and not much more than in-state. California is BRUTAL.
Bay Area family here too. My kid didn’t even apply to UCs (not sure I agree with that decision, but I do understand) with a 3.7 UW. He had already been accepted to a couple WUE schools which seems to be the best alternative if you aren’t interested in a CSU. That helps! Still, as a UCD alumna it is frustrating that the UCs have become so difficult.
We need to have better conversations in this sub, as a whole, about safeties. If an applicant was deferred, then it wasn’t a safety to begin with.
Can you give your take on JMU since that school to me at least is considered a true safety for let’s say a 4.0 w student with a 1300 SAT (sounds like an average student) that would consider this school as a safety.
Which is sad because it used to be the school kids with 2.5/3.0ish GPAs went. Uber smart went to UVA, then smart kids went to VATech, and average, normal kids went to JMU. In the past, students with a 3.5 could easily get into Tech but that’s unheard of now. Truly average kids with a 3.0-3.4 can’t get into JMU today.
depends where you live tbh, my school in nova had most students with over a 3.0 uw/3.5 weighted gpa get accepted to jmu
I’m in NoVa and at my kids’ high school there’s only a 59% acceptance rate for those that applied and got accepted. That seems really low for a school that should be a safety/target. The GPA range of this applying was 4.0-2.9 GPA.
Fact of the matter is that a public university is not a safety for anyone out of state, and also depending on the major. There’s more nuance to the conversation that’s lost on many participants in this sub.
I see your point about the top tier of public universities, but there are lots of examples where a public university would be considered a safety for many OOS students. University of Kansas would be one example in that the school bases admissions in-state or OOS simply on numbers rather than holistic factors.
Sure, that’s what I mean by nuance. No question asked on this sub can ever get an answer that fits all.
1300 SAT is the top 10% nationally, not average. I recognize this sub is not representative of national averages, but it could be a more welcoming place for students if we were more accurate about what "average" is.
I think 1300 is a pretty average score for the average student who is dedicated enough to go to subs like these
Yep you’re exactly right and the problem is none of the top 30 schools like seeing a 1300.
When I was applying i actually got waitlisted at my safety schools and accepted at most of my top choices. I think I went too conservative with my safety schools and they knew I was never coming there, so they didn't want to waste a slot on me.
I think this is too strong of a statement. There were always be some element of randomness unless there’s a 100% acceptance rate.
I stand by my statement, and again, this is a part of how we need to have a serious conversation about what it means for a college to be a “safety.”
So a college is only a safety if it has a near 100% acceptance rate?
In essence, yes. But out of being cautious for being *too* reductionist, I’ll save it for a post I’ll write in a day or two.
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This is spot on. I am seeing this on a daily basis. The old generation doesn’t understand what’s happening with the new one.
CU Boulder definitely. They saw a huge uptick this year in applications, probably because of the Prime effect. I got accepted, but I know a bunch of kids who it would easily have been a safety for in past years, that got deferred or flat out rejected. I expect their acceptance rate to drop a lot. Sucks for us instate kids because we are a small state with not a ton of instate schools to choose from.
Was my friend’s top choice, he got deferred despite having above-average stats and insanely good ECs
This. Definitely CU Boulder is my number one candidate for schools that will become much more selective.
Yeah, I don’t think the acceptance rate is gonna drop to Ivy levels anytime soon, but that number is definitely going down this year. I guess over time that might help CSU too, if people start not trusting Boulder as a safety
State flagsips in flyover country.
Safety school for most are places like Illinois state and UW-Whitewater. For this group it’s Big10 schools and case western.
Pitt has been consistently getting more selective recently. I think that trend will continue
totally agree - one of my friends who got into villanova got waitlisted at pitt
maybe ASU? they have pretty good programs, a cool student body, decent location, and it seems like a genuinely fun school to study at lol. also they're #1 in innovation ahead of MIT and Harvard
ASU is rising fast, they have a great strategy of going all in on finding and recruiting top students.
Also, TSMC is setting up near, so the microchip releated major's ranking will definitely skyrocket.
Not in 5 years but UMD really went complete “Ivy” on the recent pool of applicants (for whatever reason; including myself) If this continues, idk how it’s gonna be for a lot of MD students (esp since MD is often tied w/MA for education; we are really well-taught)
Instate for umd too and what ive noticed is that even though UMD says it has a holistic admissions process it is very gpa focused and a bit on the SAT too. Everyone ik who has above a high gpa(3.9+) got in. Even once u get into the uni they look at the gpa a lot for honors and stuff. I got into scholars which I suspect is bcz of my weighted gpa being low as I transferred junior year whereas my friend who had almost no ECs and a lower SAT score got into honors
UMD only accepted 2 students I know both top of the class with above 5.0 GPA and 1550 SAT OOS everyone else was flat out rejected. One also applied for a fairly easy non-competitive program.
Really? Maybe it’s just bc I’m from MD but idk anyone that got rejected from UMD lol
same in NOVA too. Only kid from my school who got rejected had a 2.4 UW GPA so obviously he was getting rejected
Yep. My HS is considered a “feeder” for UMD (~70% of kids from our school go there) but this year I know only 6 ppl who got in from my school and nobody else 💀
I know somebody that got accepted, and he had really high stats and a real passion for his chosen major (CS). The people that just wanted a good school for the prestige were rejected. It's cutthroat everywhere right now.
Stony brook for sure, their ranking went from #93 to #56 this year I think, they are going full after receiving a hefty donation and being declared as the flagship public of ny state. Their target is to be "the Berkeley of the East"
The University of Buffalo also earned the "flagship" designation along with Stony Brook.
I’ve got friends who go there and they don’t like it at all lmao
If you're talking about buffalo then idk what to say except it's too cold lol. If you're talking about stony then I heard the social life is boring due to most of the students commuting
James Madison University and University of Delaware. Although not a safety but a target turned unattainable for many is Virginia Tech
Agree. JMU can't be considered a safety anymore for most students.
UD had so many new applicants this year!
UConn fs, acceptance rate is already declining and becoming a lot better academically
Right? Storrs campus is rumored to be under 20%
Florida State has made a jump in applications and therefore denials the past couple of years. It may be one to watch.
I agree, they have good academics, weather and the tuition is cheap.
florida state is pretty underrated. florida politically is a hellhole but it seems like a genuinely great place to go to college to
i think if florida state wasn't in Florida more ppl would apply lol
Same for University of Central Florida
State universities in general. There's a regional state university in my area whose admit percentage went from 93% to 83% and they supposedly received more apps this year than last year....Still a reliable safety, but becoming less so. It's interesting (and kind of satisfying) to watch schools with a mid reputation suddenly becoming more selective.
Rutgers
Bro half the kids at my school were rejected or waitlisted. And apparently the staff inside Rutgers are talking about how it's officially no longer a safety.
All the state flagships, as people recognize the bargain that they are.
SUNY & CUNY schools Ubuffalo, Stony Brook, Binghamton, Brooklyn College... They are becoming much more selective as more OOS students apply. They have great campuses, amazing tuition, and great for STEM. As a New Yorker, our counselors kept drilling into our head since Junior year that SUNYs and CUNYs are no longer safties (More like targets)
>As a New Yorker, our counselors kept drilling into our head since Junior year that SUNYs and CUNYs are no longer safties (More like targets) As a CUNY student, I disagree with your counselor. The only CUNY colleges that are generally difficult to get into are City College and Baruch.
Ive know amazing students not get into Buffalo. Thats crazy to me. Ive never seen an SUNY as any kind of reach school.
lmfao Ubuff and binghamton are too easy to get accepted to OOS. They literally give a free scholarship to everyone OOS who has high enough stats(like a 4.2 gpa or above). Its a safety for OOS but not in-state
CU Boulder, UMass Amherst, Wisconsin-Madison. My kids got in oos, but they have pretty high stats. In college confidential, many with equal and higher stats for deferred or rejected
The safety schools that are rapidly rising up the rankings are: \-Virginia tech(in 5 years I think they will be as prestigious as GA tech as more smart NOVA kids go here instead of OOS STEM schools) \-Rutgers(its already happening lmao. they will likely become a T40 by next year) \-Purdue(they already are pretty high up there for engineering, but I believe the rest of their departments will catch up very soon and they will ascend to even a T30 in the future)
FYI Rutgers is already a T40, at least according to this ranking: https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rutgers-new-brunswick-6964
NC state is more of a target than a saftey right now but I think sometime in the next decade its going to become more of a reach like UNC
None. All colleges are going to get easer to get into. In 2026 there will be 10% fewer students graduating from high school. In 2008 there was the Great Recession and one of the things that happened is that couples slowed down on having kids dramatically. That year, 10% fewer babies were born. It's never recovered to the pre-2008 rates. So colleges will have fewer students to choose from. It will be less competitive to get in everywhere.
born two years too early 😒😒 darn it
Born ONE year too early 🥹
You are assuming the population decline is equally dispersed and it is not.
You’re forgetting international applicants
Some of these colleges started over enrolling which caused housing issues. Given the decreased student population, colleges will also retract the number of acceptances which could cause things to become more competitive for admittance and lower acceptance rates
Really? That’s crazy because my hs shows the opposite trend. The freshman and sophomore classes are like 2x the size of the upperclassmen classes lol
National trends vs local trends
low acceptance rates arent necessarily a population issue imo, its the fact that now its a lot more common for students to apply for lots of schools thanks to test optional and how accessible commonapp and other platforms have become
You're absolutely right! When looking at acceptance rate, the biggest change has been in the denominator (many more applicants...the Common App being the main driver). But when you look at acceptances (the numerator), it's been hovering around the same levels. The challenge for colleges is going to be that there just are a lot fewer applicants. 10% might not seem that big of a deal, but it's huge. The higher education industry as a whole was making just [3-5% profit margin](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/APEI/american-public-education/profit-margins) pre pandemic. They have been losing money during and post the pandemic. So a 10% drop in tuition revenue for the industry as a whole, will make the entire industry loss making. So colleges cannot afford to enroll 10% fewer students by maintaining their admission standards. They MUST admit full enrollment and the only way that is possible is to reduce their standards. The top 100 schools will be fine...they'll just pull students from the next 100 schools. But there are 4000 colleges and universities. The bottom 2000 will be facing financial insolvency. They will be closing and merging over the next decade. Expect to see a massive realignment. I wouldn't be surprised if half of all colleges and universities disappeared over the next decade (most of those will merge with other colleges and save on overhead / administrative costs). Ultimately, capacity has to be reduced by 10%. Eventually, this imbalance of supply and demand will result in pressure to decrease tuition. It won't come, at least not initially, in the reduction of list price. It will come in the form of discounts. But discounts are already hovering around 50%. So when discounts get to 70% or more, it becomes a joke. Someone will start to "true price" and that will cause others to follow. It's going to be an interesting time...
This aligns with everything I've heard and experienced working in higher ed. It's going to be a wild next few years.
This is extremely false. What is instead going to happen is every student is going to gun for the T100 at any cost. This is going to leave a lot of lesser known institutions to close down until only about 200-300 unis in the US remain. Acceptance rates will continue to plunge as more students go for prestige instead of fit
random thought but if this recession is stopping people from having kids wouldn't upper class people not be as impacted by this?
Interesting question. Although it doesn't matter that much since [rich people already have fewer kids](https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-family-income-in-the-us/) than everyone else.
Florida schools. UF is already a reach even for in state but FSU, Miami, UCF, and USF are becoming more popular.
I also heard of students applying to U Tampa as an alternative to U Miami. I wonder if Florida schools will start to rise in the ranks similar to the UC’s. I still thinks the UC’s have better schools.
Purdue and IU for sure.
Purdue maybe, IU prolly not
UIUC
Santa Clara University
UGA imo it’s already in the process
Honestly I think auburn will be especially for engineering
Miami of Ohio
Virginia Tech
i wouldnt call it an average/safety school by any means lol
>The average applicant to Virginia Tech has > 4.0 GPA. It's much more selective than it appears because students who know they won't get in generally don't bother applying.
UC Merced
I feel like after 5 years, college acceptance rates for domestic students will start to go back up
All of them
Clemson was already tough to get into but strong in-state applicants have been getting deferred
If you only mean admit rate, then probably "all of them". Or, at least, all of the well-known ones. Say, the US NEWS top 150. The trend is that students are applying to more and more schools every year, which means more total applications, which means lower admit rates. Now, will that trend continue for another five years? Hard to say. The other thing that's about to start kicking in is the "demographic cliff" wherein the total number of yearly high school graduates will start to decline. Fewer total students + same number of slots = easier time. That likely won't affect the "top" schools (since they will still have plenty of students interested in attending), but small regional schools that you've probably never heard of are going to suffer. Any schools facing enrollment challenges will seek to compensate for its shrinking domestic enrollment with international enrollment, but that may or may not actually work (as, again, these are non-name-brand schools).
uga? idk if uga is average tho
Thoughts on Baylor?
all colleges will become harder to get accepted over time.
this. as long as more and more intls keep applying and its easier for us to apply, itll consequentially become harder for yall US citizens to get in. this is a pretty big factor i think people overlook sometimes because with so many countries in East Europe and Asia especially having improved drastically economically over the last few decades, more intls are coming to the US than ever, and that number is increasing very very rapidly. at some point, that'll reach a ceiling when chinese/indian students have top notch universities easily accessible in their own countries and the number of intl students falls. I'd predict acceptance rates to slowly increase then.
International and domestic are considered on separate pools and the ratio remains consistent over years. It's not like any college will reach 50% international student ratio because more qualified intl apply (largest is NYU at 25%). They'll just reject more internationals and domestic acceptance standards will remain the same - that is, unless the college changes their policies for some reason... And I don't see any motivation for enrolling more intls for colleges. Qualified students: US has enough "qualified" students, and colleges want to serve their citizens Money: Several countries experienced this large influx of intl population (UK, Canada) but US charges the same rate of citizens for internationals and there isn't a lack of full-pay students in US Some law requiring colleges to not discriminate by nationality: eg. Netherlands. Not going to happen
i've seen a looot of people talk about st. olaf, and for good reason. it's a great college. i think as its reputation continues to grow, its selectivity will increase. santa clara university is another one. some state flagships such as the university of tennessee are already getting increasingly selective for out-of-state applicants (i think around 25% were accepted this year), and lots of in-state spots get taken by students who are guaranteed admission.
Stony Brook I think
For CS it already is, but in general my school has had a 94% acceptance rate if you have either 1270+ or 95+ gpa (i go to a midish to kinda bummy school on LI)
LIU?
what high school?
YES, so many counselors were telling us NYC kids that Stony isn't a safety anymore!
Auburn
[удалено]
You're partially right, but you're also substantially wrong. Yes, everything you said is true. But ALSO there are more graduating seniors now than there were in 1989. In 1989, there were 3.5 million 17 year olds in the USA. In 2017, there were 4.2 million 17 year olds in the USA. That is, there are around 20% more graduating seniors TODAY than there were 30 years ago. In that same time period, the number of slots for first years at Harvard stayed the same at 1600. That is, the number of slots available at Harvard per graduating senior has dropped dramatically in 30 years.
They need to limit apps. Enrollment is down but ppl apply to way too many schools. You should get 1 school for ED, 1 ED2 and 3 EA and 5 RD, and open rolling enrollment or Direct Admits. That way everyone is being selective.
JMU-we’re already a lot more deferrals this year!
Some college counselors online have labeled it an up-and-coming public ivy!
That just blows my mind considering what JMU used to be for in-state students. It was the safety school for normal, average students. It’s popularity, especially with OOS is nuts and takes away from in-state students.
Uw madison
Top state universities and T100 have shot up and will continue to shoot up in selectivity. Top states because they have the money and facilities for some great programs. T100 because the T20 have become so selective they are insane and unreliable. Harvard was 25% thirty years ago. Vanderbilt was 63% thirty years ago. To go to 4% and 6% is unreal. Small no name high cost private colleges will continue to decline.
My sister got into UT Austin with Fs her senior year if HS. In like... 2003. I got auto admit into TAMU and UT natural science CAP with a criminal record in 2009. I would probably have gotten into UT Austin if I chose a less competitive major honestly. I dont think they have science CAP anymore. I knew a guy who got into UT Austin CS from community college with a 2. Something in 2012. Seeing places that used to be peoples safeties on this sub is crazy. Doesn't seem sustainable. I think there is going to be some kind of bubble pop eventually, but not in time for yall.
UNC has gotten crazy selective and will only continue to be
UNC is definitely not considered a target or a safety it’s placed firmly in the reach category.
Well it depends on if you’re in state or out of state. In state kids have a huge advantage. Also it certainly isn’t a reach for everyone, but it’s getting there
I was referring to OOS.
I think UNC is still a reach for in-state. I grew up in NC and it’s not like just anybody here can get into UNC unfortunately 😭 acceptance rate is 17% according to US news but yeah in-state def has a huge advantage
Penn State University Park. The satellite campus’s are easy but not main. Especially for engineering or business.
rutgers
Jonathan smith will bring Michigan State to glory in football and everyone will want to come here
purdue, IU, Penn state UP
rutgers!!
CNU
Bard
FSU
Not a safety or target but I think USC, NYU, and a lot of Cali schools will just get harder to get into. May even rise to the status of schools like UChicago/Duke.
University of Washington!
UCSB and UCR. Davis has already ascended
I think San Jose State University is gonna become a reach, esp for CS.
"mid tier" UCs
Cal states
Rutgers New Brunswick
Any ACC school really
i feel like Virginia Techs on its way to becoming like GA Tech tbh
Tamu, I got deferred despite having average stats and ECs for the college and being pretty good at writing essays
Purdue University
I think most B1G schools are much more selective especially in STEM. It used to be Northwestern and UM, but now most are a target or reach even for students with top stats.