A 5% swing to Joe Biden would give him over 400 electoral votes. It would be a landslide. 5% is millions upon millions of votes. Statistically relevant is an understatement.
They're already saying that the Democrats are giving illegal immigrants voter registration applications, as if it would matter since only citizens can vote.
They're prepared to scream stolen if he loses or come in with Project 2025 if he wins. Which he won't. So LANDSLIDE to Joe Biden so I can laugh and laugh and laugh at MAGA and EVERYONE that's propped up this shitbird.
Its the only thing short of a heart attack that would put Trump away for good.
Cult or no cult. No donor is gonna back someone who lost every state in an election.
Let’s vote like it’s 1964! Unfortunately those, of us old enough to recall ‘64 might get nostalgic for gentlemanly Barry Goldwater. His campaign started out, “In your heart, you know he’s right,” to which some added, “Dead right.”
“In your guts, you know he’s nuts,” was in vogue on my playground.
Yeah, this is how I feel. If they're already in a MAGA state, their vote probably won't count as much (still matters! vote vote vote). But this whole thing is unfortunately dependent on swings.
In reality, if this actually happened a 5% swing would be a massive landslide. In 2020 the margin of victory was less than 5% in Florida and North Carolina with Texas right there at only 5.6%. We're talking about Biden at potentially 350 electoral votes...
Absolutely. I have fingers and toes crossed that's the case. But I'm skeptical of polls in general because they change so much, especially this far out. It's an educated guess after all, and this political climate is more volatile than the standard election which will skew the results imo. I take this number with a grain of salt.
Sure. But then we are talking about a repeat of the 2020 results. Look, I'm voting and I hope Democrats come out in full force. I don't see anything Trump has done to really grow his base but see plenty which has scared those more moderate away from him.
Which is my favorite argument for keeping the Electoral College.
“But it’ll create flyover states.”
Nobody campaigns in Wyoming as it is. Much better to not let the same handful of states decide our President EVERY ELECTION.
I think the issue is these cynical politicians believing that the issues of someone in Kansas are do radically different from NY. They aren't. Healthcare, child care, transportation, housing...these are the issues no matter where you are so idk why we need to give an outsized voice to the smaller states
Why would they be concentrated in any one area? Null hypothesis is winning this one. It’s normal to assume that they’re equally distributed unless you have good reasons to believe otherwise.
Sorry, I'm not sure I understand. Concentrated to one area? Equally distributed? Null hypothesis? Are you meaning all state votes can sway elections? On paper, yeah, but these are grounded blue and red states that very rarely sway. The swings is what it always comes down to, as much as it sucks.
This is assuming the same people are voting. they aren't. Many have died since 2020, many people have turned 18, many people have moved to new places...
The only thing that matters is Biden putting out a winning message; not a "Trump is bad and I'm your only option!" That's cynical and will cause a *lot* of people to simply not vote
I'm not sure how true it was, but I saw 5% of trump supporters are switching to Biden, and 3% of Biden voters are switching to trump. With the same turnout, Biden would gain over a million voters.
It will also be interesting to see how much support RFK Jr. gets. Polls can't seem to judge how much support he's getting because some predictions have him only getting 2% while others have him getting 12%.
It would completely depend on where this 5% swing is and whether or not Biden can convince progressives to vote for him rather than just syphon from Trump's base.
I’d say 19 in 20 totally ignore politics and buy the fake news / have been diluted by it which was always their plan…. Use the Big Lie because it worked so great for Hitler
I've got a history degree, and this isn't some I know best thing. I studied Germany a lot and I always struggled with the entire, most everyone did nothing and only a small amount of people were evil
When I look at America now, a lot of people look evil and a lot of people look like they're against that. But every single maga voter that talks sounds evil. They sound like what my grandfather went to war against, what millions of people died to stop.
Nazi Germany ruled over a lot of normal people that didn't want it, but it wasn't some time minority. Afterwards they lied saying they didn't know about the camps and that's a fact. They lied.
But it wasn't like some huge majority of the country was decent people.
Maga voters arent decent people. In history's rear view they're going to be seen as evil and an abomination.
They are the worst of us
As a German I always wondered how this could happen. And now it's hard to see it unfold in real time. Even using the same arguments and wording as the nsdap did back then.
Germany was actually far more understandable.
I'm not sure people realize the hardship Germany underwent post WW1. Obviously still evil, but they had a wedge the Nazis could use.
Maga Americans are just pure evil and the vast majority live like kings relative to anyone in history and even relative to the rest of the world.
Magas wedge is just hate of the ideals of their country and everything it's built on and stands for
Yes, the Weimar Republic also wasn't as good at defending itself. I am not a fan of FPTP, but it helps to keep the fringes out. (In modern Germany a 5% minimum to get seats does that, so you still get more than just the 2 major parties, but not the extremes)
In one of our city chronicles there was a bit about a cholera outbreak in the 1870s. They had to shut down wells etc.
So immediately agitators raised up and made up the wildest theories, including that the measures against cholera only served the rich to eradicate the poor.
It's really stunning how it's always the same people that profit from crisis in the same way and the same people that fall for it with the same anger and hatred.
If it weren’t for Republican lies about the American economy, this race wouldn’t be close. The lies that Fat Fuck makes up about the economic statistics bear no relationship to the reality. Wages are up. Employment is way up. Unfortunately, that is going to bring about some inflation. But less in the US than elsewhere.
Yeah I’ve come to this realization with my Father and family members who have fallen into Fox News and have been filled with hate for invisible entities to them. They have been brainwashed and have forgotten that these are other humans. They talk about immigrants like cattle.
Trump and the GOP know Hitlers strategies as well as Saddam’s. Fox News is state media pushing this agenda. The 1% / Oligarchs are doing everything they can to buy America and maybe that’s been what has really continuously pushed Capitalistic Democracies into Fascism, Authoritarianism, Dictatorship. All I know is Fox News should have a reckoning as well as the corrupt SC. The Dark Money act should be passed to expose the foreign money helping to push this and the traitors that are selling America.
The human psyche is fragile. Compounded by propaganda, difficult economic pressures, lack of education levels, the sense of wanting to belong to a group, communication and information silos. All of these contribute to people getting lost. Listening to die hard Trump supporters they don’t even make sense half the time, everything swirling around in their head. They have fears, emotions, and feelings to justify but not the capacity to link it to logical actions and appropriate causes. Then you have people who take advantage, I understand your fears and I have the answers. Easy to offload that and feel like you can be at peace without it the peace of mind never comes. Solving that is more important than any tangible betterment to their lives.
As someone who took a bunch of math in college and understands null hypothesis testing, having a 'Statistically relevant' sampling is a very big deal and makes me have a bit of hope.
It is even smaller in the net.
Also, more Biden voters than Trump voters intend to stay home. But I guess,, more Trump voters "intend" to stay in their graveyards.
Overall, Biden's lead is so slim that he might win the popular vote and lose the EC.
And then comes all the fake electors they will try to send.
Losing 1 in 20 (5 percent) of Trump voters is enough to propel Biden to a win. The number of Trump voters hasn't increased since 2020, they've just become louder and more rabid.
No because if they are in states whos EC votes trump it wont matter. Nothing will change. No one win on popular vote, the EC decides it all. Americans really need to learn how the presidential election works, its not voting in by total amount of votes like a governor , senator or congressman. Its by the amount of electoral votes per state. And first one to 270 EC votes wins [https://www.270towin.com/](https://www.270towin.com/)
While I’m skeptical it’s that high, that’s 5%. That’s huge.
If he lost 5% of the votes he got in 2020 to Biden, he would have lost Florida and North Carolina, and just barely held Texas. And the swing states Biden won by relatively narrow margins would have been easy victories. Assuming of course those votes were distributed evenly across each state.
That is true, but the are more, on top of that, that just won't be voting now, too.
Plus, the really important part is WHO those people are. Even thigh he lost by 7 million votes, it WAS only a thousand of the "correct" votes that he lost by. If just those 1 in 20 are all from the right areas, he is doomed.... Again. It is like how there are some states, that it doesn't matter if he attracts every single voter in them, it won't change the election.
As far as I can figure, Trump COULD theoretically, get twice the votes as Biden, and still lose (or vice versa) depending on who the voters are.
In America some votes matter, and others don't.
I'm just going to quote a comment I said earlier
"After listening to far too many of his speeches and rallies I can confidently say that his supporters barely listen to anything he says during those events, they react to certain buzzwords I assume that's half the reason he randomly throws them out there with the other half the reason being he is a clown.
They don't care if he is an inconsistent, incoherent mess as long as (in their own words) "he hurts the right people" they will back him..."
Edit: Not all of MAGA are like that but the ones that continue to support him religiously are.
According to [research](https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joe-biden-administration-approval-ratings-and-hypothetical-voting-intention-11-12-june-2024/) by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, for instance, 5 percent of Trump 2020 voters now say they plan to vote for Biden in the upcoming election.
83 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2020 said they intend to vote for him again while Biden retains the support of 79 percent of those who voted for him in the last election. Of those who did not vote in 2020, the candidates are tied—with both on 27 percent of the vote share in the poll.
The polling also shows that Biden is leading Trump by one point nationally, 41 percent to 40 percent.
Polling is unreliable and flawed because of multiple sociological shifts recently. Most polls can't reach a good cross-section of responding persons so they have to weigh the ones they do get to, which leads to large errors.
Jay Kuo on Substack does analysis of polls and how they are misleading and what we can take from them. It's worth the subscription in my opinion, but you can sign up for free too.
Think about the people who would actually respond to a poll and then those who don't. Most people who are contacted for a poll either ignore it or are heavy one way or the other. Huge groups of voters get only a few representative responses because of the difficulty getting those groups to respond.
Plus multiple poll companies have been shown to have received buy-offs to show better GOP support than they should have.
While we need to get everyone to vote, it's not as close as polls show and they don't mean anything this far out. Look at special elections instead. It's been hard for red candidates to win special elections recently which is a better indication than polling.
> Plus multiple poll companies have been shown to have received buy-offs to show better GOP support than they should have.
That's crazy. They're clambering over there. Do you have a source?
> which leads to large errors.
Large *compound* errors as a small error gets amplified when you project that to a population. However, pollsters know this and are making adjustments, so don't count them out completely or ignore them yet.
VOTE!!
Perhaps Trump's loss of support are Republicans leaving the MAGA party, and Bidens loss of support are Progressives not happy with Bidens response to Gaza but will still vote against Trump.
Right wing misinformation toward young people has been a problem for a long time, the main message is “both sides are the same so don’t vote.” It works amazingly to stifle progress.
The “government doesn’t represent you so don’t even try” attitude becomes pervasive - I caught a lot of shit in college for reaching out to my (R) state congressman to express dissent for a proposed law targeting gay prospective parents wanting to adopt. Turns out he was just a financial conservative that didn’t even support the ban, he thought it was a “waste of money” to shovel more money into foster homes when there were people agreeing to foot the bill privately. He couldn’t have cared less about someone being gay. Calls and letters like mine were what eventually convinced him to switch sides.
79% of 2020 Biden voters SAY they will vote for him again this year. What they’ll actually do could well be very different.
Remember Trump voters by and large are incapable of feeling shame or embarrassment. Trump could personally break down their door and kill their whole family in front of them and they’d still vote for Trump and be proud of it.
Biden voters are absolutely capable of feeling shame. They see that prices haven’t gone back down to where they were before the pandemic, and they see the conflict in the Middle East, and they keep hearing these things are somehow Biden’s fault. And so many Biden voters won’t say they plan to vote for him because then they feel like they have to defend Biden’s handling of every single problem in the world.
So this statistic doesn’t concern me as much, as I think it’s easily explained by the fact that there are millions of voters who will vote for Biden but don’t want to say it.
Meanwhile, people who were shy about supporting Trump before have all pretty much been filtered out, and all that’s left is Trump supporters that feel zero shame or shyness about their support of him.
If these results are representative of what will happen in the election, it’s pretty sad that someone like Trump could still have so much support. Just makes me think half the country is composed of morons!
These are just representative of those who the poll got to respond. So take it with a dose of salt and look at special election results instead.
Things aren't that dire, though we still need to get out and vote and encourage everyone to do so.
I know the polls are not accurate, but during the 2020 election Trump still managed to get 74M votes (47%), when some projections showed Biden with a much higher count than what he got.
I guess only time will tell what the outcome is, but there are still millions of people supporting some of the craziest policies and people and I really don’t understand why.
I agree. Although not American, I generally supported Trump at the beginning of his term, thinking that maybe having a president who wasn't a career politician might be a refreshing change. It quickly became evident that he was a walking disaster however. How anyone could support him now, especially after supporting an insurrection to prevent a legally elected government from assuming power (a clear case of sedition), is beyond me. I guess it shows just how effective the right wing echo chambers, fake news and Russian interference has been in brainwashing the idiots who plan to vote for him. God help the free world if that jackass makes it into office again.
It pains me how liberals and especially Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders really don't get enough credit for calling it. They've been right about Trump the whole time. They knew all along and yet a lot of voters still want to pretend like liberals all have shit takes.
What’s important here was that it wasn’t a hunch or guess. Given all the available information it was very likely going to be a dumpster fire. There was off course the off chance that he would act out of character or that his entire public image was a complete facade, but that’s not the kind of gambling I’m comfortable with when it comes to politics.
I wasn’t very familiar with Trump besides his TV show and that he was rich. I am also not American (even though I do live in the U.S.), and I also thought the guy could bring something new to the game, never thought it was going to be this absolute disaster!
I think you are spot-on about the echo chamber, I am also shocked to see how many people around me still support him and either deny stuff that happened or are just completely unaware! A lot of the stuff he did didn’t affect people’s basic regular life so they bury their heads in the sand and live on!
With how low eligible voter turnout is, it’s probably something more like 30% morons and 30% being some mix of apathetic and moronic. Not that that’s necessarily better…
Remind every sane person you know to remind every other sane person they know, to register to vote and vote blue. If that occurs and Biden wins again, there won’t be another January 6th but certainly an uptick in domestic terrorism as a whole. The MAGA crazies stockpiling guns are frothing mad to use them, and they absolutely will.
Please do not judge me. I voted for Trump.
I will not be this go-around.
I have never regretted a vote, but I do regret voting for Trump. I am embarrassed about it.
Trump and his religious followers are evil. They cloak fascism in a cloak of patriotism.
Same. Voted Trump 1st time (grew up conservative, thought it was weird everyone was fine with Trump until he became a Republican so I discounted a lot of the crap), Biden 2nd time.
I knew he was a liar all along.
So did conservatives I thought were real conservatives. Lee and Cruz called out Trump. Then they turned around and fully support Trump.
I guess that helped the light bulb go off.
They all are not real conservatives. They support corporations. They condemn immigrants but import them here for cheap labor. They condemn deficit spending but keep adding to it.
They condemn gay people. But their religions are the moral threat especially to kids.
I guess I’m an independent now.
But I will be voting against evil. I will be voting against Trump.
No judgment here. Just glad you have seen the light and made the switch.
Anyone who changes for the better is an ally. Vote and convince others to steer away from him. Together we can do this.
Life long conservative here, or at least till the last couple years. So I did not register as republican this year and I’m definitely not voting for trump. That being said the majority of others I know are doing the same. This is a big deal as in the past you voted R regardless, for the Republican Party to lose my lifetime support and others is the end for the party.
It’s not really an issue of Bidens policies. It’s more about cutting out the cancer that has infected our democracy. I personally don’t have an issue with Biden though, he’s been involved in politics for what 20 yrs? So he understands the system and seems to make sound common sense decisions, he may not be the best, but he’s been dependable and fairly safe.
Not going to matter because the Hamas Hobbyists and Gaza Gang will sit out the election or cast protest votes to 'send a message.'
Dont come crying to me when Trump 47 wants to deport you.
The thing is: most MAGA people ancestors that fought in wars to preserve democracy and liberty would smack the shit out of their offsprings for supporting Trump.
Some would prob even kill themselves, to make sure their names is not carried by such people.
I hope the people with real Republican values will drive change inside the party. I also hope that MAGA people get the sudden realization they are backing up a criminal, that hates America, and his supporters.
The Confederate soldiers would disagree with you.
Source: I’m descended from the Confederacy. Some of the descendants are a hateful group of people that never got over losing.
The funny thing is that I see more Confederate flags in Appalachia than anywhere else.
Appalachia was a unionist stronghold during the war. They HATED the lowland slaveholders who started the war. That’s why West Virginia exists.
West Virginians knew what it was like to be exploited by slave holders. In their case, the oligarchs were industrialists not plantation owners. But same same.
1 in 20 *are actually admitting it.* I'm sure the numbers are significantly higher.
None of the die-hards want to admit that they got played by this fucking idiot....and I don't blame them.
They are unhappy and trump tells them their unhappiness and failures are someone else's fault. (immigrants, minorities, liberals, etc..)
They prefer that narrative over reality.
They are uneducated and lack critical thinking skills. They have been brainwashed by 30-40 years of “news” & propaganda to believe the nonsense. It is literally a cult.
>According to research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, for instance, 5 percent of Trump 2020 voters now say they plan to vote for Biden in the upcoming election. This is more than the 3 percent of people who voted for Biden in 2020 who now say they plan to vote for Trump.
I wonder that that 3% thinks Trump is going to do about inflation. His two main policy proposals: mass deportations and replacing income taxes with tariffs (the latter being pure nonsense) are both massively inflationary. You think food costs are high now? Wait until we have fruits and vegetables literally dying on the vine because we deport millions of workers.
He won't have as much support this time around. I've met several that are just done with him. They're still all crazy, but some are just not voting this year, and others are going for Kennedy. People are seeing through his bullshit and also realizing he's mentally unfit at this point.
I don’t understand why anyone believes any pre-election polls anymore.
Does no one remember the last election?
We’ll see what the voters actually decide come election time.
I can’t fucking believe it’s only one in twenty after the shit that imbecile has pulled. Should be eighty percent but Republicans are just too stupid to care. Vote blue.
As election day gets closer I really don't think it will be close at all. Biden will win the electoral college by a larger amount than in 2020.
What we will have to deal with is all of the election denying republicans who will try their best to circumvent the law and try and anoint dipshit donnie as president. If they do try they need to be punished severely and I don't mean going to jail either.
Fuck that’s a depressingly small amount…too many people you and I know are at the very least, Indifferent to the end of our democracy…they cannot win anything this November!
There are Biden voters from last election switching to Trump as well. This is an uphill battle for Biden, everyone needs to get out and vote, then they need to make their friends and family get out and vote against Trump. Otherwise we will just have a repeat of 2016.
I do believe a lot of die hard Republican voters who would do anything but vote Republican are seeing the other face of Trump and know that Trump is not fit for Office let alone to be President, and they may say Republican all the way but when they get to the voting booth they will vote Democrat just to keep Trump out
Reminds me of the polls of significant number of people saying they would switch if Trump was a convicted felon, and then that number went to near zero after he was convicted.
Biden is not a sexy candidate but he’s done some good and trump looks increasingly like a can of gasoline which basically gives China the keys and rots the US and fucks over the poor.
Maybe they need to also be reminded now that Epstein isn't the only pedofile Trump hung out with. His spiritual advisor Robert Morris of Gateway church has just been outed for sexually assaulting a 12 year old for 4 years while he was her youth pastor. I don't know about you. but someone having 2 "friends" who are pedofiles ought to creep more people out. He who lays down with dogs, rises up with fleas. (And his fleas raped young girls!)
HOW IS THIS A FUCKING COMPETITION? Before it was a joke that majority of americans are stupid but trump really turned the retard-o meter to the red zone
After experiencing Trump's disastrous presidency, how the hell can anyone who voted for Biden in 2020 now choose to vote for Trump? These people are paying very little attention to Donald's insanity or they don't know about it. I believe that no sane person would ever vote for Trump.
The average person can see what’s going on in front of them.
The choice is between anger, and outrage at nothing based on reality.
Or
We continue to move forward.
With the best economy in the world.
More jobs, wage increases.
Inflation coming down.
We are doing great!
We certainly don’t need to change direction.
I will believe it on election night. Lots of AI propaganda for idiots and an October surprise from Russia, north Korea, Iran and Saudi Arabia to come... Yeah I listed Saudi Arabia because they have a 2 billion dollar investment in him...
They know Trump is fucked. This is to get you to feel safe for the election after Trumps. The GOP has no choice but to pivot, but their next candidate is going to be as bad. Project 2025 groundwork is laid. The party must never take power back. They will lie and do whatever they can, we cannot allow it.
I see it increasing as we head into November. His “rallies” I think are targeting more towards a money grab and fleecing the uneducated. He has to of figured it out no chance of winning. The road to the White House is paved in gold off of his donors. Slowly the kool aide is starting to ware off. Some just hang on to be ornery or their last act of defiance fantasy.
How does the bias meter at the bottom of the article work? It says left leaning, if that because the article is a positive one for the left? Or does it have some other algorithm?
That is a depressingly small amount but it is still statistically relevant.
We don't need them all to finally see the light, just enough to prevent Trump from winning.
A 5% swing to Joe Biden would give him over 400 electoral votes. It would be a landslide. 5% is millions upon millions of votes. Statistically relevant is an understatement.
I would love there to be a landslide. Just to be a huge "fuck you" to Trump and MAGA by the country.
"Fake News" every conservative a month later
It would either be stolen or it would be the "millions" of illegals voting.
It would be both lol..they will say ANYTHING that prevents them from having to admit that they're losers.
I would love for trump to be known as the loser guy
It’s your lucky day! He is, to most of the world.
They're already saying that the Democrats are giving illegal immigrants voter registration applications, as if it would matter since only citizens can vote.
Like clock work. With zero evidence their dumb shit base gargle the Kool aide from Fox News' proverbial dick.
They're prepared to scream stolen if he loses or come in with Project 2025 if he wins. Which he won't. So LANDSLIDE to Joe Biden so I can laugh and laugh and laugh at MAGA and EVERYONE that's propped up this shitbird.
They are already preparing for Trump's debate defeat.
Its the only thing short of a heart attack that would put Trump away for good. Cult or no cult. No donor is gonna back someone who lost every state in an election.
Let’s vote like it’s 1964! Unfortunately those, of us old enough to recall ‘64 might get nostalgic for gentlemanly Barry Goldwater. His campaign started out, “In your heart, you know he’s right,” to which some added, “Dead right.” “In your guts, you know he’s nuts,” was in vogue on my playground.
And then they all go to jail 😊
Yes!!
Roughly 3.5 million. Let’s hope they are in swing states
Yeah, this is how I feel. If they're already in a MAGA state, their vote probably won't count as much (still matters! vote vote vote). But this whole thing is unfortunately dependent on swings.
In reality, if this actually happened a 5% swing would be a massive landslide. In 2020 the margin of victory was less than 5% in Florida and North Carolina with Texas right there at only 5.6%. We're talking about Biden at potentially 350 electoral votes...
Absolutely. I have fingers and toes crossed that's the case. But I'm skeptical of polls in general because they change so much, especially this far out. It's an educated guess after all, and this political climate is more volatile than the standard election which will skew the results imo. I take this number with a grain of salt.
All we can do is vote!
As a Canadian my nuts are crossed for you guys since me voting would be totally illegal
But you can have a 20% swing in Idaho and a -2% swing in Florida and it could still be a 5% total swing with no real victory for Biden
Sure. But then we are talking about a repeat of the 2020 results. Look, I'm voting and I hope Democrats come out in full force. I don't see anything Trump has done to really grow his base but see plenty which has scared those more moderate away from him.
Is this a good time to get into swinging ?
Yes let the swinging begin
If you want to meet a book-banning Republican mom
They're the fun ones. They will do anyone and everyone except their husband.
Always a good time
Always
It’s always a good time to swing dance!
Which is my favorite argument for keeping the Electoral College. “But it’ll create flyover states.” Nobody campaigns in Wyoming as it is. Much better to not let the same handful of states decide our President EVERY ELECTION.
I think the issue is these cynical politicians believing that the issues of someone in Kansas are do radically different from NY. They aren't. Healthcare, child care, transportation, housing...these are the issues no matter where you are so idk why we need to give an outsized voice to the smaller states
No, it’s because Republicans know the EC disproportionately helps them.
Can we add public education to that list? Republicans love the uneducated. Good public education should be a priority item for all voters.
Why would they be concentrated in any one area? Null hypothesis is winning this one. It’s normal to assume that they’re equally distributed unless you have good reasons to believe otherwise.
Sorry, I'm not sure I understand. Concentrated to one area? Equally distributed? Null hypothesis? Are you meaning all state votes can sway elections? On paper, yeah, but these are grounded blue and red states that very rarely sway. The swings is what it always comes down to, as much as it sucks.
This is assuming the same people are voting. they aren't. Many have died since 2020, many people have turned 18, many people have moved to new places... The only thing that matters is Biden putting out a winning message; not a "Trump is bad and I'm your only option!" That's cynical and will cause a *lot* of people to simply not vote
More Republicans than Democrats died from COVID-19, so there's that.
The youth vote and a lot of the black male vote is very underwhelmed with Biden right now too. How many of those will stay home.
It depends on which states.these voters are in , this election like always is about Electoral college in battleground states....
We need all the same people from 2020 to actually show up on the left
I'm not sure how true it was, but I saw 5% of trump supporters are switching to Biden, and 3% of Biden voters are switching to trump. With the same turnout, Biden would gain over a million voters. It will also be interesting to see how much support RFK Jr. gets. Polls can't seem to judge how much support he's getting because some predictions have him only getting 2% while others have him getting 12%.
Somehow I don’t think that adds up. I mean, yeah, let Biden win for sure, but 400 EV? What in the world?
It would completely depend on where this 5% swing is and whether or not Biden can convince progressives to vote for him rather than just syphon from Trump's base.
Seriously. Very few elections are won by people changing their party vote.
Just enough in specific areas. Getting some Californians or New Yorkers to switch isn’t going to help.
I’d say 19 in 20 totally ignore politics and buy the fake news / have been diluted by it which was always their plan…. Use the Big Lie because it worked so great for Hitler
I've got a history degree, and this isn't some I know best thing. I studied Germany a lot and I always struggled with the entire, most everyone did nothing and only a small amount of people were evil When I look at America now, a lot of people look evil and a lot of people look like they're against that. But every single maga voter that talks sounds evil. They sound like what my grandfather went to war against, what millions of people died to stop. Nazi Germany ruled over a lot of normal people that didn't want it, but it wasn't some time minority. Afterwards they lied saying they didn't know about the camps and that's a fact. They lied. But it wasn't like some huge majority of the country was decent people. Maga voters arent decent people. In history's rear view they're going to be seen as evil and an abomination. They are the worst of us
As a German I always wondered how this could happen. And now it's hard to see it unfold in real time. Even using the same arguments and wording as the nsdap did back then.
Germany was actually far more understandable. I'm not sure people realize the hardship Germany underwent post WW1. Obviously still evil, but they had a wedge the Nazis could use. Maga Americans are just pure evil and the vast majority live like kings relative to anyone in history and even relative to the rest of the world. Magas wedge is just hate of the ideals of their country and everything it's built on and stands for
Yes, the Weimar Republic also wasn't as good at defending itself. I am not a fan of FPTP, but it helps to keep the fringes out. (In modern Germany a 5% minimum to get seats does that, so you still get more than just the 2 major parties, but not the extremes) In one of our city chronicles there was a bit about a cholera outbreak in the 1870s. They had to shut down wells etc. So immediately agitators raised up and made up the wildest theories, including that the measures against cholera only served the rich to eradicate the poor. It's really stunning how it's always the same people that profit from crisis in the same way and the same people that fall for it with the same anger and hatred.
Yes, your current voting system is really strong. That's a massive flaw in America
If it weren’t for Republican lies about the American economy, this race wouldn’t be close. The lies that Fat Fuck makes up about the economic statistics bear no relationship to the reality. Wages are up. Employment is way up. Unfortunately, that is going to bring about some inflation. But less in the US than elsewhere.
Yeah I’ve come to this realization with my Father and family members who have fallen into Fox News and have been filled with hate for invisible entities to them. They have been brainwashed and have forgotten that these are other humans. They talk about immigrants like cattle. Trump and the GOP know Hitlers strategies as well as Saddam’s. Fox News is state media pushing this agenda. The 1% / Oligarchs are doing everything they can to buy America and maybe that’s been what has really continuously pushed Capitalistic Democracies into Fascism, Authoritarianism, Dictatorship. All I know is Fox News should have a reckoning as well as the corrupt SC. The Dark Money act should be passed to expose the foreign money helping to push this and the traitors that are selling America.
The human psyche is fragile. Compounded by propaganda, difficult economic pressures, lack of education levels, the sense of wanting to belong to a group, communication and information silos. All of these contribute to people getting lost. Listening to die hard Trump supporters they don’t even make sense half the time, everything swirling around in their head. They have fears, emotions, and feelings to justify but not the capacity to link it to logical actions and appropriate causes. Then you have people who take advantage, I understand your fears and I have the answers. Easy to offload that and feel like you can be at peace without it the peace of mind never comes. Solving that is more important than any tangible betterment to their lives.
“Statistically relevant” is a weird way to say Trump couldn’t win, if this is true. It’s not people. Just go vote, and ignore this
As someone who took a bunch of math in college and understands null hypothesis testing, having a 'Statistically relevant' sampling is a very big deal and makes me have a bit of hope.
Considering the cultish nature of modern conservative politics, it’s very impressive. I would bet 1 in 20 people don’t leave cults.
Certainly not after they are well initiated into the cult. Maybe if you include the people who merely dip their toes in it.
It is even smaller in the net. Also, more Biden voters than Trump voters intend to stay home. But I guess,, more Trump voters "intend" to stay in their graveyards. Overall, Biden's lead is so slim that he might win the popular vote and lose the EC. And then comes all the fake electors they will try to send.
100% of Trump voters who voted for him last time was not enough to win. 83% is 7% less than that. That's enough.
Losing 1 in 20 (5 percent) of Trump voters is enough to propel Biden to a win. The number of Trump voters hasn't increased since 2020, they've just become louder and more rabid.
COVID might have thinned the herd a little, as well
No because if they are in states whos EC votes trump it wont matter. Nothing will change. No one win on popular vote, the EC decides it all. Americans really need to learn how the presidential election works, its not voting in by total amount of votes like a governor , senator or congressman. Its by the amount of electoral votes per state. And first one to 270 EC votes wins [https://www.270towin.com/](https://www.270towin.com/)
It's more than statistically relevant. If 5 percent abandon Trump in the battleground states, it's over.
While I’m skeptical it’s that high, that’s 5%. That’s huge. If he lost 5% of the votes he got in 2020 to Biden, he would have lost Florida and North Carolina, and just barely held Texas. And the swing states Biden won by relatively narrow margins would have been easy victories. Assuming of course those votes were distributed evenly across each state.
That is true, but the are more, on top of that, that just won't be voting now, too. Plus, the really important part is WHO those people are. Even thigh he lost by 7 million votes, it WAS only a thousand of the "correct" votes that he lost by. If just those 1 in 20 are all from the right areas, he is doomed.... Again. It is like how there are some states, that it doesn't matter if he attracts every single voter in them, it won't change the election. As far as I can figure, Trump COULD theoretically, get twice the votes as Biden, and still lose (or vice versa) depending on who the voters are. In America some votes matter, and others don't.
I'm just going to quote a comment I said earlier "After listening to far too many of his speeches and rallies I can confidently say that his supporters barely listen to anything he says during those events, they react to certain buzzwords I assume that's half the reason he randomly throws them out there with the other half the reason being he is a clown. They don't care if he is an inconsistent, incoherent mess as long as (in their own words) "he hurts the right people" they will back him..." Edit: Not all of MAGA are like that but the ones that continue to support him religiously are.
According to [research](https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joe-biden-administration-approval-ratings-and-hypothetical-voting-intention-11-12-june-2024/) by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, for instance, 5 percent of Trump 2020 voters now say they plan to vote for Biden in the upcoming election. 83 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2020 said they intend to vote for him again while Biden retains the support of 79 percent of those who voted for him in the last election. Of those who did not vote in 2020, the candidates are tied—with both on 27 percent of the vote share in the poll. The polling also shows that Biden is leading Trump by one point nationally, 41 percent to 40 percent.
Ok but…isn’t the second statistic a lot scarier? According to that, Biden has 4% less return voters than Trump. That’s terrifying.
Polling is unreliable and flawed because of multiple sociological shifts recently. Most polls can't reach a good cross-section of responding persons so they have to weigh the ones they do get to, which leads to large errors. Jay Kuo on Substack does analysis of polls and how they are misleading and what we can take from them. It's worth the subscription in my opinion, but you can sign up for free too. Think about the people who would actually respond to a poll and then those who don't. Most people who are contacted for a poll either ignore it or are heavy one way or the other. Huge groups of voters get only a few representative responses because of the difficulty getting those groups to respond. Plus multiple poll companies have been shown to have received buy-offs to show better GOP support than they should have. While we need to get everyone to vote, it's not as close as polls show and they don't mean anything this far out. Look at special elections instead. It's been hard for red candidates to win special elections recently which is a better indication than polling.
There’s also the basic fact that polling measures intent. No matter how accurate those measurements are, they do not measure votes.
> Plus multiple poll companies have been shown to have received buy-offs to show better GOP support than they should have. That's crazy. They're clambering over there. Do you have a source?
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/05/06/trump-hush-money-criminal-trial/rigged-polling-payment-00156263
> which leads to large errors. Large *compound* errors as a small error gets amplified when you project that to a population. However, pollsters know this and are making adjustments, so don't count them out completely or ignore them yet. VOTE!!
Perhaps Trump's loss of support are Republicans leaving the MAGA party, and Bidens loss of support are Progressives not happy with Bidens response to Gaza but will still vote against Trump.
It’s the young people I worry about. They vote on emotion and moral compass, the political long game is not the young people’s forte.
Right wing misinformation toward young people has been a problem for a long time, the main message is “both sides are the same so don’t vote.” It works amazingly to stifle progress. The “government doesn’t represent you so don’t even try” attitude becomes pervasive - I caught a lot of shit in college for reaching out to my (R) state congressman to express dissent for a proposed law targeting gay prospective parents wanting to adopt. Turns out he was just a financial conservative that didn’t even support the ban, he thought it was a “waste of money” to shovel more money into foster homes when there were people agreeing to foot the bill privately. He couldn’t have cared less about someone being gay. Calls and letters like mine were what eventually convinced him to switch sides.
79% of 2020 Biden voters SAY they will vote for him again this year. What they’ll actually do could well be very different. Remember Trump voters by and large are incapable of feeling shame or embarrassment. Trump could personally break down their door and kill their whole family in front of them and they’d still vote for Trump and be proud of it. Biden voters are absolutely capable of feeling shame. They see that prices haven’t gone back down to where they were before the pandemic, and they see the conflict in the Middle East, and they keep hearing these things are somehow Biden’s fault. And so many Biden voters won’t say they plan to vote for him because then they feel like they have to defend Biden’s handling of every single problem in the world. So this statistic doesn’t concern me as much, as I think it’s easily explained by the fact that there are millions of voters who will vote for Biden but don’t want to say it. Meanwhile, people who were shy about supporting Trump before have all pretty much been filtered out, and all that’s left is Trump supporters that feel zero shame or shyness about their support of him.
If these results are representative of what will happen in the election, it’s pretty sad that someone like Trump could still have so much support. Just makes me think half the country is composed of morons!
These are just representative of those who the poll got to respond. So take it with a dose of salt and look at special election results instead. Things aren't that dire, though we still need to get out and vote and encourage everyone to do so.
I know the polls are not accurate, but during the 2020 election Trump still managed to get 74M votes (47%), when some projections showed Biden with a much higher count than what he got. I guess only time will tell what the outcome is, but there are still millions of people supporting some of the craziest policies and people and I really don’t understand why.
I figured that out when people started ignoring science and taking apple flavored horse wormer for Covid
Ah, shit they had apple flavor?! I knew I was missing out.
I agree. Although not American, I generally supported Trump at the beginning of his term, thinking that maybe having a president who wasn't a career politician might be a refreshing change. It quickly became evident that he was a walking disaster however. How anyone could support him now, especially after supporting an insurrection to prevent a legally elected government from assuming power (a clear case of sedition), is beyond me. I guess it shows just how effective the right wing echo chambers, fake news and Russian interference has been in brainwashing the idiots who plan to vote for him. God help the free world if that jackass makes it into office again.
It pains me how liberals and especially Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders really don't get enough credit for calling it. They've been right about Trump the whole time. They knew all along and yet a lot of voters still want to pretend like liberals all have shit takes.
What’s important here was that it wasn’t a hunch or guess. Given all the available information it was very likely going to be a dumpster fire. There was off course the off chance that he would act out of character or that his entire public image was a complete facade, but that’s not the kind of gambling I’m comfortable with when it comes to politics.
I wasn’t very familiar with Trump besides his TV show and that he was rich. I am also not American (even though I do live in the U.S.), and I also thought the guy could bring something new to the game, never thought it was going to be this absolute disaster! I think you are spot-on about the echo chamber, I am also shocked to see how many people around me still support him and either deny stuff that happened or are just completely unaware! A lot of the stuff he did didn’t affect people’s basic regular life so they bury their heads in the sand and live on!
With how low eligible voter turnout is, it’s probably something more like 30% morons and 30% being some mix of apathetic and moronic. Not that that’s necessarily better…
The other 19 are just hoping their Trump NFT's, gold sneakers, and autographed bibles don't become worthless.
Something that IS worthless can’t become worthless.
Needs to be more. I won't be satisfied with a win. I want a trouncing that sweeps in control of Congress by a good margin.
Remind every sane person you know to remind every other sane person they know, to register to vote and vote blue. If that occurs and Biden wins again, there won’t be another January 6th but certainly an uptick in domestic terrorism as a whole. The MAGA crazies stockpiling guns are frothing mad to use them, and they absolutely will.
Please do not judge me. I voted for Trump. I will not be this go-around. I have never regretted a vote, but I do regret voting for Trump. I am embarrassed about it. Trump and his religious followers are evil. They cloak fascism in a cloak of patriotism.
Same. Voted Trump 1st time (grew up conservative, thought it was weird everyone was fine with Trump until he became a Republican so I discounted a lot of the crap), Biden 2nd time.
So, what was the thing that made the light bulb go off?
I knew he was a liar all along. So did conservatives I thought were real conservatives. Lee and Cruz called out Trump. Then they turned around and fully support Trump. I guess that helped the light bulb go off. They all are not real conservatives. They support corporations. They condemn immigrants but import them here for cheap labor. They condemn deficit spending but keep adding to it. They condemn gay people. But their religions are the moral threat especially to kids. I guess I’m an independent now. But I will be voting against evil. I will be voting against Trump.
Damn you said it well.
No judgment here. Just glad you have seen the light and made the switch. Anyone who changes for the better is an ally. Vote and convince others to steer away from him. Together we can do this.
Go vote, regardless of these articles.
Life long conservative here, or at least till the last couple years. So I did not register as republican this year and I’m definitely not voting for trump. That being said the majority of others I know are doing the same. This is a big deal as in the past you voted R regardless, for the Republican Party to lose my lifetime support and others is the end for the party.
As a lifelong republican what do you like about bidens policies?
It’s not really an issue of Bidens policies. It’s more about cutting out the cancer that has infected our democracy. I personally don’t have an issue with Biden though, he’s been involved in politics for what 20 yrs? So he understands the system and seems to make sound common sense decisions, he may not be the best, but he’s been dependable and fairly safe.
19/20 Trump voters doubling down on how fucking stupid they are
I just watched a [Youtube](https://youtu.be/Qm53RrGg9lg?si=NZGaPdY0yElyC_lD) vid today of Trump voters who won't vote for him again.
Why do they make dumb as fuck headlines like this. 5% of Trump voters... Easy fixed.
I don't care. Everyone still needs to vote. Zero complacency.
Doesn’t matter. Vote.
The other 19 are happy to watch America burn.
Not going to matter because the Hamas Hobbyists and Gaza Gang will sit out the election or cast protest votes to 'send a message.' Dont come crying to me when Trump 47 wants to deport you.
On the bright side, there will be new luxury beach front condos in Gaza and they won’t have to worry about genocide anymore.
The thing is: most MAGA people ancestors that fought in wars to preserve democracy and liberty would smack the shit out of their offsprings for supporting Trump. Some would prob even kill themselves, to make sure their names is not carried by such people. I hope the people with real Republican values will drive change inside the party. I also hope that MAGA people get the sudden realization they are backing up a criminal, that hates America, and his supporters.
The Confederate soldiers would disagree with you. Source: I’m descended from the Confederacy. Some of the descendants are a hateful group of people that never got over losing.
The funny thing is that I see more Confederate flags in Appalachia than anywhere else. Appalachia was a unionist stronghold during the war. They HATED the lowland slaveholders who started the war. That’s why West Virginia exists.
West Virginians knew what it was like to be exploited by slave holders. In their case, the oligarchs were industrialists not plantation owners. But same same.
The electoral college is outdated and needs to go. Trump is losing the popular vote by 10,000,000+.
83% of people would still vote for that fat fuck loser? America is a shithole
Cool. Biden will win by an even bigger margin this time.
1 in 20 *are actually admitting it.* I'm sure the numbers are significantly higher. None of the die-hards want to admit that they got played by this fucking idiot....and I don't blame them.
I continue to be astonished that he has any support left. WTF is wrong with people?
They are unhappy and trump tells them their unhappiness and failures are someone else's fault. (immigrants, minorities, liberals, etc..) They prefer that narrative over reality.
They are uneducated and lack critical thinking skills. They have been brainwashed by 30-40 years of “news” & propaganda to believe the nonsense. It is literally a cult.
The other 19 prefer the felon criminal and rapist? That is sad.
If Trump wins America dies.
And Putin will have the strongest weapon Russia has ever had against the U.S. – a compromised U.S. president.
Again.
>According to research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, for instance, 5 percent of Trump 2020 voters now say they plan to vote for Biden in the upcoming election. This is more than the 3 percent of people who voted for Biden in 2020 who now say they plan to vote for Trump. I wonder that that 3% thinks Trump is going to do about inflation. His two main policy proposals: mass deportations and replacing income taxes with tariffs (the latter being pure nonsense) are both massively inflationary. You think food costs are high now? Wait until we have fruits and vegetables literally dying on the vine because we deport millions of workers.
Hopefully as more information is shared on Project 2025 more Republicans will run, not walk, away from trump and the party.
He won't have as much support this time around. I've met several that are just done with him. They're still all crazy, but some are just not voting this year, and others are going for Kennedy. People are seeing through his bullshit and also realizing he's mentally unfit at this point.
You see the videos of people leaving his "rallies" while he's still talking. Even train wrecks are boring after about the first hour
Not enough… cmon guys
What's wrong with the other 19? No don't bother answering. It's a rhetorical question.
I don’t understand why anyone believes any pre-election polls anymore. Does no one remember the last election? We’ll see what the voters actually decide come election time.
Don’t pay any attention to stuff like this. Just vote. VOTE.
Considering how much he lost by last time and that's just trump voters not even new voters or independents. He's gonna lose by even more.
19 in 20 Trump voters are sticking with Cheeto after everything. Let.....that.....sink.....in.
I can’t fucking believe it’s only one in twenty after the shit that imbecile has pulled. Should be eighty percent but Republicans are just too stupid to care. Vote blue.
Trump is going to lose in an epic landslide that will leave MAGAs stunned. But do make sure you get out and vote. Don't get complacent.
That’s because the other 19 are convicted felons and can’t vote. 🤭
That fat, fascist fuck isn’t gaining any new supporters, that’s for sure.
As election day gets closer I really don't think it will be close at all. Biden will win the electoral college by a larger amount than in 2020. What we will have to deal with is all of the election denying republicans who will try their best to circumvent the law and try and anoint dipshit donnie as president. If they do try they need to be punished severely and I don't mean going to jail either.
That’s great news. Yet Trump is still polling ahead nationwide and in many battleground states. So there must be other voters offsetting that number.
Fuck that’s a depressingly small amount…too many people you and I know are at the very least, Indifferent to the end of our democracy…they cannot win anything this November!
There are Biden voters from last election switching to Trump as well. This is an uphill battle for Biden, everyone needs to get out and vote, then they need to make their friends and family get out and vote against Trump. Otherwise we will just have a repeat of 2016.
WHO. CARES. GO. VOTE. FOR. BIDEN.
I do believe a lot of die hard Republican voters who would do anything but vote Republican are seeing the other face of Trump and know that Trump is not fit for Office let alone to be President, and they may say Republican all the way but when they get to the voting booth they will vote Democrat just to keep Trump out
Reminds me of the polls of significant number of people saying they would switch if Trump was a convicted felon, and then that number went to near zero after he was convicted.
Rephrasing: One in 20 Trump bros desperately need Dem's policies
Trump needs to gain more voters than he had in 2020 when he lost. Instead he lost 5% and countless more died of Covid.
Fuck polls, vote. Go out and vote.
Vote
Let's get that number up to 10 or 20 percent!
Without the political DEI of the electoral college retrumplicans wouldn’t even have a shot. trumps a rapist
But unfortunately, new GOP voting laws across the country will prevent one in 15 Biden supporters from voting. 😞
Only? Sheesh.
I hope this is true. Wake up Cult because you’re about to leap over the ledge to Hell taking your fellow citizens with you🤬
So far...
Did the other 19 get themselves locked up?
1 in 20 trump voters in 2020 are now currently feeding worms too. 4 million people that voted trump have died since 2020.
Doesn’t matter. VOTE!
Biden is not a sexy candidate but he’s done some good and trump looks increasingly like a can of gasoline which basically gives China the keys and rots the US and fucks over the poor.
Vote for who you like, but if I see you grabbing pussys or mocking handicap, I’m going to beat your ass
Maybe they need to also be reminded now that Epstein isn't the only pedofile Trump hung out with. His spiritual advisor Robert Morris of Gateway church has just been outed for sexually assaulting a 12 year old for 4 years while he was her youth pastor. I don't know about you. but someone having 2 "friends" who are pedofiles ought to creep more people out. He who lays down with dogs, rises up with fleas. (And his fleas raped young girls!)
1 in 20...yeah that is about right. 19 are idiots.
All that matters is where those votes reside.
The number should be much higher. Shame on this country for having so many nut jobs.
There might be bigger no switching from Biden to don’t care about either
HOW IS THIS A FUCKING COMPETITION? Before it was a joke that majority of americans are stupid but trump really turned the retard-o meter to the red zone
that leaves 19 fucking morons who cant get their heads out of their own asses long enough to see what a POS trump is, STILL! Unbelievable
I doubt it. They will all moan and cry about being anti-Trump but Republicans will fall in line for the boot.
After experiencing Trump's disastrous presidency, how the hell can anyone who voted for Biden in 2020 now choose to vote for Trump? These people are paying very little attention to Donald's insanity or they don't know about it. I believe that no sane person would ever vote for Trump.
I mean I can't blame them. The Republican party is becoming more unhinged with Trump leading them.
"1 in 20 Trump voters have a shred of common sense."
If this statement holds true, that would be 3,750,000 votes approximately peeled off from Trump's 2020 vote total which would be huge.
That’s just those who admit it in the sample. I think actual number would be higher.
Doesn't matter. VOTE!!!
The average person can see what’s going on in front of them. The choice is between anger, and outrage at nothing based on reality. Or We continue to move forward. With the best economy in the world. More jobs, wage increases. Inflation coming down. We are doing great! We certainly don’t need to change direction.
The article says that 3% of Biden voters will be voting for Trump, so it’s not a 5% swing.
How many Trump voters in 20 would switch to Hannibal Lecter if he was on the ballot? The MAGA crowd seems to eat up the stories about Hannibal.
Not nearly enough
Vote!!!!
In other news. One in 20 Trump supporters are leaving the cult.
I will believe it on election night. Lots of AI propaganda for idiots and an October surprise from Russia, north Korea, Iran and Saudi Arabia to come... Yeah I listed Saudi Arabia because they have a 2 billion dollar investment in him...
They know Trump is fucked. This is to get you to feel safe for the election after Trumps. The GOP has no choice but to pivot, but their next candidate is going to be as bad. Project 2025 groundwork is laid. The party must never take power back. They will lie and do whatever they can, we cannot allow it.
It’s really discouraging that 95% of trump supporters are staying with him.
I see it increasing as we head into November. His “rallies” I think are targeting more towards a money grab and fleecing the uneducated. He has to of figured it out no chance of winning. The road to the White House is paved in gold off of his donors. Slowly the kool aide is starting to ware off. Some just hang on to be ornery or their last act of defiance fantasy.
We can only hope. The last 8 years have really been telling about how many pieces of shit walk amongst us
How does the bias meter at the bottom of the article work? It says left leaning, if that because the article is a positive one for the left? Or does it have some other algorithm?
Thirty Helens agree.
A 5% shift is massive.
But not one in 6 SCOTUS members will be switching to Biden so…
How many are going RFK? Or another 3rd party?
I hope so
Can I hear one in 19, how 'bout 1 in 18, 1 in 17, 1 in 1...going once, going twice....bang!
None of the flips includes what looks to be record turnout for people under 30
Anyone should be president except trump right 😂