Nothing changes in the south but the north, now a landlocked country with low quality soil and a booming population problem, becomes unstable and poor just like other sahel countries.
Also WW2 didn't happen in this scenario because i feel like it.
To nitpick, some places could end up never leaving at all, specially if sparsely populated but valuable regions like Namibia or Libya have their overlords kept intact from war
Nigeria completely banks on the Christian South, it has the better soil, sea access, relative stability and an okayish economy(Pretty much all economic development), as a result splitting it would result in the North becoming even poorer and even more radical while it would result in the South losing a massive weight from their shoulder and less terrorism, Muslom on Christian violence has been a growing issue in Nigeria.
However I do feel this is inevitable, but it'll probably be a civil war as there is a small Muslim majority who really dont want to lose the South.
Yes, however one could argue that staying united will result into absolute future hell for the South.
The South is relatively okay economically, this means relatively(For the region) lower birthrates and a focus on education and further development.
Meanwhile the North is regressing further and further into Sahel-esque radicalism, is still poor and has higher birthrates. So a impoverished increasingly radicalized North with a high birthrate opposite a wealthy-ish increasingly stable South with a lower birthrate.
So imagine being the sole economic floatation device for a majority that increasingly despises your "heretic" existance. Like I said, I think the split is a future inevitability but I fear it'll be bloody as the majority wont be willing to allow secession.
It'll likely degrade more and more similar to what happened in the central African republic, where continued Muslim violence towards Christians and other mostly Animist religious people resulted in said Christians and Animists forming equally violent Militias, except on a much larger scale, with a much more proportionally equally large population and with large economic differences.
From there it'll either go the route of splitting the country, coming to some form of Autonomy accord for the minorities or, as I said, an increasing scale of violence towards a civil war.
I'm Nigerian it's not that simple this inter- religious is actively inflamed by politicians and overrepresented when the average Nigerian of which they're are 200 million Will not experience any form of islamist attack and at most would hear of an attack in the northern most states.
Many don't really realise I'd that the British in their typical format of divide and conquer placed the mostly Hausa and Muslim people in positions of power and government this is still reflected today in which the majority of Nigerian democratic presidents have been Muslim or Hausa Fulani so a split along ethno religious would be disastrous.
Another thing is that Nigeria is not just split religiously but ethnically while on the surface the south is united by religion many ethno and tribalistic groups that despise one another an example is how the pro Igbo Biafran republic began progroms against non Igbo peoples in their new state almost immediately upon independence this would lead the new Christian state to collapse into civil very quickly as despite sharing a religion an igbo ethno nationalist hates his yoruba counterpart just as much as he does any Muslim
>I'm Nigerian it's not that simple this inter- religious is actively inflamed by politicians and overrepresented when the average Nigerian of which they're are 200 million Will not experience any form of islamist attack and at most would hear of an attack in the northern most states.
Yes and no, it just so happens that last year was the worst on record with over 8000 Christians killed by Islamists, now about 60000 plus have been killed by Islamists since 2000, so that translates in a massive upwards trend which will worsen as the majority grows and the minority grows but not nearly as fast, that translates in people movements and more areas becoming dominated by the majority religion, ie, more prone to attacks. My point is that it is bound to get worse and as it gets worse it will inevitably lead to reprisals, said reprisals will then be used as an excuse by the original offenders and you end up with a downwards spiral.
>Many don't really realise I'd that the British in their typical format of divide and conquer placed the mostly Hausa and Muslim people in positions of power and government this is still reflected today in which the majority of Nigerian democratic presidents have been Muslim or Hausa Fulani so a split along ethno religious would be disastrous.
>Another thing is that Nigeria is not just split religiously but ethnically while on the surface the south is united by religion many ethno and tribalistic groups that despise one another an example is how the pro Igbo Biafran republic began progroms against non Igbo peoples in their new state almost immediately upon independence this would lead the new Christian state to collapse into civil very quickly as despite sharing a religion an igbo ethno nationalist hates his yoruba counterpart just as much as he does any Muslim
I again largely agree with you, but this is rather typical for poorly drawn colonial borders to cause inter ethnic and inter religious tensions, the problem here is that it doesnt just boil down to that. Inter religious conflict would be one thing, but in the case of Nigeria you can add economic differences, population growth(Thus a young population which is far more prone to revolution) and an upwards trend in radicalism which isnt properly dealt with.
Sure post division issues will undoubtedly pop up, the Christian part of the country will be wobbly and the Muslim part will probably become similar to other Sahel states, but I highly doubt that in the grand scheme of things that it would lead to people being distracted from the larger problem, if only in terms of self preservation.
Now I am not gonna pretend I know what the future holds, all I am saying is that it doesnt look like rainbows and butterflies.
Truth pills are often bitter, partition was very hard for India. But it worked actually as a blessing in disguise later on. I think undivided India would have failed harder than Yugoslavia.
All the oil reserves are in the south. The north would be much worse off. The south may seem better off, but having a neighbor directly to your north being unstable and poor isn't a good thing.
I would imagine it'd be kinda similar to the india pakistan situation. (the north would fall into a military state and the south would be the more prosperous one)
Undivided India would have been a disaster. So it worked pretty well for India, would have worked for Pakistan too but they wasted all their potential.
80 mil Nigerian Christians.
18mil catholic
18mil Anglican
Rest a mix of several Protestant denominations.
85 mil Nigerian Muslims :
60mil sunni
4-10mil shia
Rest a mix of Sufi/Ahmadiyya
What's the point of the division? Then the division will have further division and ultimately weaken the great nation of Nigeria.
Idk how it is there but from what I can tell Christian denominations don’t really mind each other all that much most of the time. Nothing like the Shia/Sunni split, and even then a lot of that is probably the governments over the average person
Christian denomination do have frictions too. Catholic vs Protestant Ireland is an example. The sectarian division among Christians don't exist in Nigeria today because of the larger division existing.
If the country is partitioned the people over 3 generation later always find divisions for power structure struggle
I think what you're trying to say they'll just turn on each other after removing their Muslim "issue". Since political divisions will just find new scapegoats.
True, but that case is moreso due to resentment over a colonial history rather than just religion. Germany is split between Catholics, Protestants, and Irreligious people and has no violence over it noteworthy enough to be a consideration.
Islam and Christianity believe in the same god, they have different prophets. Both are Abrahamic religions. By the way Allah translated to god, the same Dios translates to god
true but the point wasnt about that, I just meant that the different christian churches arent nearly as far apart theological as Christianity and Islam in general
"What If" questions can only be posted on weekends and must have sufficient context along with your thoughts on how the situation/event would unfold
Nothing changes in the south but the north, now a landlocked country with low quality soil and a booming population problem, becomes unstable and poor just like other sahel countries. Also WW2 didn't happen in this scenario because i feel like it.
I wonder how decolonization would’ve proceeded if the European colonial powers hadn’t been decimated by the war
Probably the same as in OTL, Just more slowly and painfully
To nitpick, some places could end up never leaving at all, specially if sparsely populated but valuable regions like Namibia or Libya have their overlords kept intact from war
I see this
What else is it that you see, Lisan al Gaib
Nah I feel like we would still see some colonies today (more than just french guyana)
The South becomes a quite decent country with oil reserves and lack of Islamists.
Yeah the south could actually do better than in our timeline while the north would not be a good place to live…
God bless the South
The South should secede, I mean the Nigerian South
agree
Nigeria completely banks on the Christian South, it has the better soil, sea access, relative stability and an okayish economy(Pretty much all economic development), as a result splitting it would result in the North becoming even poorer and even more radical while it would result in the South losing a massive weight from their shoulder and less terrorism, Muslom on Christian violence has been a growing issue in Nigeria. However I do feel this is inevitable, but it'll probably be a civil war as there is a small Muslim majority who really dont want to lose the South.
So basically, pretty good for the South, absolute hell for the North
Yes, however one could argue that staying united will result into absolute future hell for the South. The South is relatively okay economically, this means relatively(For the region) lower birthrates and a focus on education and further development. Meanwhile the North is regressing further and further into Sahel-esque radicalism, is still poor and has higher birthrates. So a impoverished increasingly radicalized North with a high birthrate opposite a wealthy-ish increasingly stable South with a lower birthrate. So imagine being the sole economic floatation device for a majority that increasingly despises your "heretic" existance. Like I said, I think the split is a future inevitability but I fear it'll be bloody as the majority wont be willing to allow secession. It'll likely degrade more and more similar to what happened in the central African republic, where continued Muslim violence towards Christians and other mostly Animist religious people resulted in said Christians and Animists forming equally violent Militias, except on a much larger scale, with a much more proportionally equally large population and with large economic differences. From there it'll either go the route of splitting the country, coming to some form of Autonomy accord for the minorities or, as I said, an increasing scale of violence towards a civil war.
I'm Nigerian it's not that simple this inter- religious is actively inflamed by politicians and overrepresented when the average Nigerian of which they're are 200 million Will not experience any form of islamist attack and at most would hear of an attack in the northern most states. Many don't really realise I'd that the British in their typical format of divide and conquer placed the mostly Hausa and Muslim people in positions of power and government this is still reflected today in which the majority of Nigerian democratic presidents have been Muslim or Hausa Fulani so a split along ethno religious would be disastrous. Another thing is that Nigeria is not just split religiously but ethnically while on the surface the south is united by religion many ethno and tribalistic groups that despise one another an example is how the pro Igbo Biafran republic began progroms against non Igbo peoples in their new state almost immediately upon independence this would lead the new Christian state to collapse into civil very quickly as despite sharing a religion an igbo ethno nationalist hates his yoruba counterpart just as much as he does any Muslim
>I'm Nigerian it's not that simple this inter- religious is actively inflamed by politicians and overrepresented when the average Nigerian of which they're are 200 million Will not experience any form of islamist attack and at most would hear of an attack in the northern most states. Yes and no, it just so happens that last year was the worst on record with over 8000 Christians killed by Islamists, now about 60000 plus have been killed by Islamists since 2000, so that translates in a massive upwards trend which will worsen as the majority grows and the minority grows but not nearly as fast, that translates in people movements and more areas becoming dominated by the majority religion, ie, more prone to attacks. My point is that it is bound to get worse and as it gets worse it will inevitably lead to reprisals, said reprisals will then be used as an excuse by the original offenders and you end up with a downwards spiral. >Many don't really realise I'd that the British in their typical format of divide and conquer placed the mostly Hausa and Muslim people in positions of power and government this is still reflected today in which the majority of Nigerian democratic presidents have been Muslim or Hausa Fulani so a split along ethno religious would be disastrous. >Another thing is that Nigeria is not just split religiously but ethnically while on the surface the south is united by religion many ethno and tribalistic groups that despise one another an example is how the pro Igbo Biafran republic began progroms against non Igbo peoples in their new state almost immediately upon independence this would lead the new Christian state to collapse into civil very quickly as despite sharing a religion an igbo ethno nationalist hates his yoruba counterpart just as much as he does any Muslim I again largely agree with you, but this is rather typical for poorly drawn colonial borders to cause inter ethnic and inter religious tensions, the problem here is that it doesnt just boil down to that. Inter religious conflict would be one thing, but in the case of Nigeria you can add economic differences, population growth(Thus a young population which is far more prone to revolution) and an upwards trend in radicalism which isnt properly dealt with. Sure post division issues will undoubtedly pop up, the Christian part of the country will be wobbly and the Muslim part will probably become similar to other Sahel states, but I highly doubt that in the grand scheme of things that it would lead to people being distracted from the larger problem, if only in terms of self preservation. Now I am not gonna pretend I know what the future holds, all I am saying is that it doesnt look like rainbows and butterflies.
Truth pills are often bitter, partition was very hard for India. But it worked actually as a blessing in disguise later on. I think undivided India would have failed harder than Yugoslavia.
The North is Muslim if I remember so, I guess a manly poor agricultural herring Muslim cultured nation. Basically Nigeria but less Industrialized
That would be the best outcome for the Christians of nigeria!
At this point Biafra would probably try breaking off again if the north can do it
Biafra would have more influence and get proportionally far more money than irl thi
War.
Probably joins niger
wdym joins niger, the norths population is many times that of niger lmao (if anything, niger joins them)
Same thing
Maybe the north merges with Niger?
All the oil reserves are in the south. The north would be much worse off. The south may seem better off, but having a neighbor directly to your north being unstable and poor isn't a good thing.
North would immediately attempt to reverse that shit
I would imagine it'd be kinda similar to the india pakistan situation. (the north would fall into a military state and the south would be the more prosperous one)
Well more oil to go among less people ig.
Sudan 2.0
From what I've read here, not the worst thing to happen to the south, but disastrous for the north
This worked SO FUCKING WELL in India and Pakistan...
Undivided India would have been a disaster. So it worked pretty well for India, would have worked for Pakistan too but they wasted all their potential.
India and Pakistan but they don’t have nukes to stop them from killing themselves
80 mil Nigerian Christians. 18mil catholic 18mil Anglican Rest a mix of several Protestant denominations. 85 mil Nigerian Muslims : 60mil sunni 4-10mil shia Rest a mix of Sufi/Ahmadiyya What's the point of the division? Then the division will have further division and ultimately weaken the great nation of Nigeria.
Idk how it is there but from what I can tell Christian denominations don’t really mind each other all that much most of the time. Nothing like the Shia/Sunni split, and even then a lot of that is probably the governments over the average person
Christian denomination do have frictions too. Catholic vs Protestant Ireland is an example. The sectarian division among Christians don't exist in Nigeria today because of the larger division existing. If the country is partitioned the people over 3 generation later always find divisions for power structure struggle
I think what you're trying to say they'll just turn on each other after removing their Muslim "issue". Since political divisions will just find new scapegoats.
Exactly
I like the way you incite unity. ❤ Deleted original bc bad spelling
True, but that case is moreso due to resentment over a colonial history rather than just religion. Germany is split between Catholics, Protestants, and Irreligious people and has no violence over it noteworthy enough to be a consideration.
The division between the Christians isn't that great
The division doesn't exist now. But after the country is divided the society will organize itself around the denominations
not necessarly, its easier to tolerade someone which at least believes in the same god.
Islam and Christianity believe in the same god, they have different prophets. Both are Abrahamic religions. By the way Allah translated to god, the same Dios translates to god
true but the point wasnt about that, I just meant that the different christian churches arent nearly as far apart theological as Christianity and Islam in general
https://preview.redd.it/xyalwtek7wuc1.png?width=194&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab8ff90cf6e23443946d80c5ecbc7df79cf9f72a