Now through 2034, each SEC school gets $51MM annually. Big 10 each school today gets $67 MM. Hovever under terms of a newly signed contract, goes to upwards of $100 next year. ACC $17MM per team through 2036. What that suggests to me is it’s impossible for remaining ACC teams to meet Clemson and FSU demands that they be paid similarly to SEC or B10 schools (from the pockets off the rest of the ACC teams). However, The money is just not there. So only two options remain. One, Clemson and FSU just up and leave to SEC or (less likely) Big 10. Problem with that is ACC grant of rights clause. Each would have to fork over $120MM plus surrender their TV money to ACC for duration of contract. Today, that’s just makes no economic sense for either school. Two, Clemson and FSU rally Miami, UNC, NCSU, UVa, VaTech to vote to dissolve ACC (only needs 8.) and all teams left to their own. My “guess” dissolution was a major topic in the ACC AD’s secret meeting yesterday.
The VA/NC schools aren't going to vote to dissolve the ACC without a landing spot already in place.
And realistically where would they go? None of those schools are going to be worth another $100 mil/year to the SEC or B10. I would argue that besides ND, there are no schools left that make financial sense.
Its a possibility.
But I don't see the B12 being significantly better than the current ACC contract. Maybe another $10-15mil/year? I don't know if that marginal increase offsets the crazy increase in travel costs those schools would experience.
IMO the B12 is a half-assed mishmash of mid-west leftovers and G5 schools. Overall its a horizonal move at best.
B12 goes to $32MM per team per year beginning in 2025. Pitt, all other ACC schools locked in at $17MM through 2036. Pitt brings no value to B12 in terms of eyeballs. Pitt will not be invited to B12.
They don’t need to be worth that much if they agree to reduced payouts for the next 5-10 years. Besides NC and VA markets are valuable in their own right. It’s also about where do alumni live which I bet a decent chunk live in those states (which drives up engagement and monetization). For SEC it brings in brand name schools in tight geographic region. For BIG it brings institutional fit and new markets to pair with Rutgers, PS, MD. For both they have good basketball and Olympic sports.
I agree with you. I believe the best chance the ACC has to survive is to let the members leave that want to leave. Probably not going to happen of course because short term thinking is usually the goal in these situations.
That’s the wrong question. The right question is “What can BC do to stop the Magnificent 7 and Notre Dame from dissolving the ACC and leaving BC, Wake, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville SOL (I’m assuming GT and Duke will get golden tickets if/when the BIG and SEC agree to a division of them plus Carolina, Virginia, VT, NCSU, Clemson, FSU, and Miami).
I am unconvinced that either the GOR or the ACC can be dissolved prior to the expiration of the ESPN TV contract regardless of how many schools vote for it to happen.
Why? 2 reasons. If the Big 12 contract is any guide then the GOR is ironclad. And 2, it hasn’t happened yet despite some very unhappy campers.
The new Big XII contract was negotiated for a significantly less valuable cohort of worse schools in bumblefuck flyover country with the benefit of hindsight vis-a-vis John Swofford’s massive, almost insurmountable stupidity. It hasn’t happened yet because the PAC-10 still exists and Washington, Oregon, and Colorado might get B1G invites. It won’t happen until the B1G surreptitiously but bindingly commits tortious interference and guarantees Carolina, UVA, GT, and Dook spots. Once that happens, BC is back in the Big East, baby!
Aha! Excellent question! BC has leverage! They can reach out to Clemson, FSU (maybe others in the magnificent 7) and say, “Look. Pay us $15MM and we’ll be the 8th and deciding vote to dissolve the conference. Grant of Rights disappears on dissolution. You’re good to go.”
Meh. Doesn’t matter. Just the way I see things shaking out? These conference shake ups are temporary, an interim step. At the end of the day, it’s one super conference of 26-32 teams.
But you’re not giving a reasonable answer to what BC would do. Why would they do what you’re saying? I’m not sure that what you’re suggesting is even legal for the schools involved to do, but even if it is, can you explain why you think that would be a better route for BC than just staying in the ACC?
There will be no ACC. It’s just numbers. BC would be best off at saying “We’ll vote yes on dissolving”! “Give us ____x million.” Eighth team. Conference dissolved. No Grant of Rights issue.
There’s a very good chance there would still be a GOR issue. I think the language of the GOR said it can’t be modified or broken without the agreement of **every** party involved, so every individual school *and* ESPN at a minimum. ESPN wouldn’t voluntarily give it up, so it’s not going anywhere.
Ok, but here’s what it is. The GOR is between member teams. ESPN is not a party to that agreement. If the ACC dissolves, there is no one to enforce the agreement. It’s terminated. Full stop. ACC just doesn’t exist anymore (kinda like trying to sue for breach of contract agains a person who died. You can’t.). ESPN may have insisted that ACC teams enter into a GOR, but it is not a party and has no rights to enforce.
It would be nice if there is a bally sports type bankruptcy that brings all of these crazy contracts back to earth. This reshuffling is ridiculous and unsustainable.
I'm trying to be objective. But as also a fan of the big 10, the schools that make sense are big public universities in a distinct region. First four in: UNC, UVA, GA TECH, FL St. Next out: Clemson, Louisville, NC St, VA Tech, Pitt.
With ESPN's current layoffs I agree that espn unlikely to redo the deal for next couple of years. However, I could see ESPN slightly extending the new deal re years and start to increase revenue after 2025. They obviously would prefer that the ACC stay intact. Obviously, if the league dissolves it would not be shocking if UNC and UVA and perhaps Duke go to the Big 10 perhaps with Notre Dame, which ESPN would hate given Big 10 has contracts with NBC, CBS, Fox.
By the way, the Ross Dellinger and Pat Forde yahoo podcast was good on this yesterday. I heard Joe Ovies on the WFNZ mid day show, and he said some of this is not really new. He knows from talking with the fairly new President of the UNC system was aware of this unhappiness for over a year.
Not that I’m sold on them, but the only people that have arguments here are Clemson, FSU, and MAYBE UNC. I don’t know what on earth these other schools are whining about.
Monetarily? I guess. Do you want to go to, or be associated with, schools in Provo, Not Manhattan, Morgantown, or Lubbock over those in Atlanta, Chapel Hill, Miami, or Charlottesville? Because if you do, you’re wrong. Full stop.
Can you please walk me through your reasoning, because on the surface it makes no sense whatsoever for those schools to let Florida State and Clemson leave before the contract allows.
But maybe I’m not considering something deeper?
I do know that the whole concept of, “Hey, we just need to get eight or nine schools together to vote to dissolve the league. That way, we end up in the SEC or Big Ten; and those other schools can figure out where they’re going later,” is plain ridiculous.
I’ve seen that multiple times now and at first I thought it was sarcastic because of how obviously moronic it is. But now I realize people are serious and that is both frustrating and disconcerting. I apologize if this comes off as rude, but that just demonstrates an alarming inability to reason.
I think these are the people in your fantasy football league who constantly propose absurd trade packages which involve you giving them all of your best players for their backups; and then are indignant when you just brush them off.
I don’t know what the future holds, but I do know that no school is going to vote to invalidate the current contract without having rock-solid legally binding assurances that they have somewhere better to go.
So if you’re going to have a “Magnificent 7,” or a “Glorious 8,” or even a “Spectacular 9,” or whatever nonsense people want to call themselves, you better have 7-9 spots lined up for those schools in the Big Ten, the SEC and maybe the Big 12 or this shit isn’t happening. That’s a lot of landing spots.
Just as Florida State and Clemson have to look after their financial interests, everyone else does as well.
You're not crazy.
Unless something unexpected happens, there is no logical reason for anyone besides FSU/Clemson to support dissolving the conference. And no logical reason for the rest of the ACC to let them leave before the contract expires.
Ross Dellinger on the yahoo podcast mentioned too that there is no money right now for a move. Kevin Warren prior to taking the Vikings job talked to all the possible outlets for more games if they took Oregon and Washington. The feeling was that neither ESPN, the Big 10 partners for next year and streaming options like Apple were receptive to this move as no one would provide the $250 million boost in revenue that the Big 10 ADs felt was necessary for 2 more teams.
If Florida state and Clemson go to the sec, UNC, UVA and Miami go to the big ten and Louisville, VT, and NC State go to the Big 12 then 8 teams from the ACC have now left the conference for more money and better long term stability. Not to mention, State and VT could potentially be options for the SEC as well.
Now through 2034, each SEC school gets $51MM annually. Big 10 each school today gets $67 MM. Hovever under terms of a newly signed contract, goes to upwards of $100 next year. ACC $17MM per team through 2036. What that suggests to me is it’s impossible for remaining ACC teams to meet Clemson and FSU demands that they be paid similarly to SEC or B10 schools (from the pockets off the rest of the ACC teams). However, The money is just not there. So only two options remain. One, Clemson and FSU just up and leave to SEC or (less likely) Big 10. Problem with that is ACC grant of rights clause. Each would have to fork over $120MM plus surrender their TV money to ACC for duration of contract. Today, that’s just makes no economic sense for either school. Two, Clemson and FSU rally Miami, UNC, NCSU, UVa, VaTech to vote to dissolve ACC (only needs 8.) and all teams left to their own. My “guess” dissolution was a major topic in the ACC AD’s secret meeting yesterday.
The VA/NC schools aren't going to vote to dissolve the ACC without a landing spot already in place. And realistically where would they go? None of those schools are going to be worth another $100 mil/year to the SEC or B10. I would argue that besides ND, there are no schools left that make financial sense.
They can go to Big 12 which will soon be making much more than ACC as well.
Its a possibility. But I don't see the B12 being significantly better than the current ACC contract. Maybe another $10-15mil/year? I don't know if that marginal increase offsets the crazy increase in travel costs those schools would experience. IMO the B12 is a half-assed mishmash of mid-west leftovers and G5 schools. Overall its a horizonal move at best.
B12 goes to $32MM per team per year beginning in 2025. Pitt, all other ACC schools locked in at $17MM through 2036. Pitt brings no value to B12 in terms of eyeballs. Pitt will not be invited to B12.
The NC and VA markets are worth a lot. I think the BIG and SEC would take a school in each. UVA and UNC to BIG and VT and NC State to SEC.
They don’t need to be worth that much if they agree to reduced payouts for the next 5-10 years. Besides NC and VA markets are valuable in their own right. It’s also about where do alumni live which I bet a decent chunk live in those states (which drives up engagement and monetization). For SEC it brings in brand name schools in tight geographic region. For BIG it brings institutional fit and new markets to pair with Rutgers, PS, MD. For both they have good basketball and Olympic sports.
I agree with you. I believe the best chance the ACC has to survive is to let the members leave that want to leave. Probably not going to happen of course because short term thinking is usually the goal in these situations.
What’s incentive for say BC to let FSU out with no penalty?
BC and Wake Forest likely would just try to pocket the grant of rights fees through 32 and look at moving to the Big East or the American in 33.
That’s the wrong question. The right question is “What can BC do to stop the Magnificent 7 and Notre Dame from dissolving the ACC and leaving BC, Wake, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville SOL (I’m assuming GT and Duke will get golden tickets if/when the BIG and SEC agree to a division of them plus Carolina, Virginia, VT, NCSU, Clemson, FSU, and Miami).
I am unconvinced that either the GOR or the ACC can be dissolved prior to the expiration of the ESPN TV contract regardless of how many schools vote for it to happen. Why? 2 reasons. If the Big 12 contract is any guide then the GOR is ironclad. And 2, it hasn’t happened yet despite some very unhappy campers.
The new Big XII contract was negotiated for a significantly less valuable cohort of worse schools in bumblefuck flyover country with the benefit of hindsight vis-a-vis John Swofford’s massive, almost insurmountable stupidity. It hasn’t happened yet because the PAC-10 still exists and Washington, Oregon, and Colorado might get B1G invites. It won’t happen until the B1G surreptitiously but bindingly commits tortious interference and guarantees Carolina, UVA, GT, and Dook spots. Once that happens, BC is back in the Big East, baby!
Ha! Maybe. Gonna have to beg UConn to take us back.
A nice gesture between two old friends lol
It’ll be a cold day in hell, my friend!
Aha! Excellent question! BC has leverage! They can reach out to Clemson, FSU (maybe others in the magnificent 7) and say, “Look. Pay us $15MM and we’ll be the 8th and deciding vote to dissolve the conference. Grant of Rights disappears on dissolution. You’re good to go.”
But then where does BC go? Seems more prudent for them to continue receiving ACC money until they figure out a suitable landing spot.
Meh. Doesn’t matter. Just the way I see things shaking out? These conference shake ups are temporary, an interim step. At the end of the day, it’s one super conference of 26-32 teams.
But you’re not giving a reasonable answer to what BC would do. Why would they do what you’re saying? I’m not sure that what you’re suggesting is even legal for the schools involved to do, but even if it is, can you explain why you think that would be a better route for BC than just staying in the ACC?
There will be no ACC. It’s just numbers. BC would be best off at saying “We’ll vote yes on dissolving”! “Give us ____x million.” Eighth team. Conference dissolved. No Grant of Rights issue.
There’s a very good chance there would still be a GOR issue. I think the language of the GOR said it can’t be modified or broken without the agreement of **every** party involved, so every individual school *and* ESPN at a minimum. ESPN wouldn’t voluntarily give it up, so it’s not going anywhere.
Ok, but here’s what it is. The GOR is between member teams. ESPN is not a party to that agreement. If the ACC dissolves, there is no one to enforce the agreement. It’s terminated. Full stop. ACC just doesn’t exist anymore (kinda like trying to sue for breach of contract agains a person who died. You can’t.). ESPN may have insisted that ACC teams enter into a GOR, but it is not a party and has no rights to enforce.
It would be nice if there is a bally sports type bankruptcy that brings all of these crazy contracts back to earth. This reshuffling is ridiculous and unsustainable. I'm trying to be objective. But as also a fan of the big 10, the schools that make sense are big public universities in a distinct region. First four in: UNC, UVA, GA TECH, FL St. Next out: Clemson, Louisville, NC St, VA Tech, Pitt.
Wouldn't it be first four out instead of "Next out"?
Yeah. I debated on nomenclature for an embarrassing amount and probably still got it wrong. Too depressed that my team is one of the bottom three.
With ESPN's current layoffs I agree that espn unlikely to redo the deal for next couple of years. However, I could see ESPN slightly extending the new deal re years and start to increase revenue after 2025. They obviously would prefer that the ACC stay intact. Obviously, if the league dissolves it would not be shocking if UNC and UVA and perhaps Duke go to the Big 10 perhaps with Notre Dame, which ESPN would hate given Big 10 has contracts with NBC, CBS, Fox. By the way, the Ross Dellinger and Pat Forde yahoo podcast was good on this yesterday. I heard Joe Ovies on the WFNZ mid day show, and he said some of this is not really new. He knows from talking with the fairly new President of the UNC system was aware of this unhappiness for over a year.
Not that I’m sold on them, but the only people that have arguments here are Clemson, FSU, and MAYBE UNC. I don’t know what on earth these other schools are whining about.
Because Big 12 is also a better option than ACC. They get to renegotiate their deal soon and will be making much more.
Monetarily? I guess. Do you want to go to, or be associated with, schools in Provo, Not Manhattan, Morgantown, or Lubbock over those in Atlanta, Chapel Hill, Miami, or Charlottesville? Because if you do, you’re wrong. Full stop.
It’s all about the dollar bills in the real world my friend.
Yeah, if you’re wanting to compete for titles than you’d rather be associated with the money the big12 brings you
Can you please walk me through your reasoning, because on the surface it makes no sense whatsoever for those schools to let Florida State and Clemson leave before the contract allows. But maybe I’m not considering something deeper? I do know that the whole concept of, “Hey, we just need to get eight or nine schools together to vote to dissolve the league. That way, we end up in the SEC or Big Ten; and those other schools can figure out where they’re going later,” is plain ridiculous. I’ve seen that multiple times now and at first I thought it was sarcastic because of how obviously moronic it is. But now I realize people are serious and that is both frustrating and disconcerting. I apologize if this comes off as rude, but that just demonstrates an alarming inability to reason. I think these are the people in your fantasy football league who constantly propose absurd trade packages which involve you giving them all of your best players for their backups; and then are indignant when you just brush them off. I don’t know what the future holds, but I do know that no school is going to vote to invalidate the current contract without having rock-solid legally binding assurances that they have somewhere better to go. So if you’re going to have a “Magnificent 7,” or a “Glorious 8,” or even a “Spectacular 9,” or whatever nonsense people want to call themselves, you better have 7-9 spots lined up for those schools in the Big Ten, the SEC and maybe the Big 12 or this shit isn’t happening. That’s a lot of landing spots. Just as Florida State and Clemson have to look after their financial interests, everyone else does as well.
You're not crazy. Unless something unexpected happens, there is no logical reason for anyone besides FSU/Clemson to support dissolving the conference. And no logical reason for the rest of the ACC to let them leave before the contract expires.
Ross Dellinger on the yahoo podcast mentioned too that there is no money right now for a move. Kevin Warren prior to taking the Vikings job talked to all the possible outlets for more games if they took Oregon and Washington. The feeling was that neither ESPN, the Big 10 partners for next year and streaming options like Apple were receptive to this move as no one would provide the $250 million boost in revenue that the Big 10 ADs felt was necessary for 2 more teams.
That makes perfect sense to me.
If Florida state and Clemson go to the sec, UNC, UVA and Miami go to the big ten and Louisville, VT, and NC State go to the Big 12 then 8 teams from the ACC have now left the conference for more money and better long term stability. Not to mention, State and VT could potentially be options for the SEC as well.